Helton to the Red Sox?

[Rob]

One thing that should be mentioned that hasn't is that Helton's numbers will likely seriously drop moving away from Coors field. Here are his home/road splits from the last 3 years:

 

2004: home-.368/.490/.693, away-.326/.446/.544

2005- home-.353/.471/.616, away-.287/.418/.453

2006- home-.338/.445/.531, away-.266/.360/.421

 

He's 33, his numbers have declined each of the sharply between both of the last 2 years, and his home and away splits have been around 200 points each of the last 3 years. This is most certainly not a sure-fire trade for the Red Sox. In fact-it's certainly possible that they are getting the last 5 years of a contract like Soriano's (depending on how much the Rockies pay) without getting the benefit of the first 3 years of production-and it could be even worse than that if he can't pull those away numbers back up to where they were pre-2006. I think this is an extremely risky trade for the Red Sox, and if they have to give up decent talent, I wouldn't make the deal. Helton might work for 2007, but he's not likely going to work well beyond that.

 

But you can't forget that there's significant statistical proof of a Coors Field "hangover" effect. You can make the point that his numbers have been dropping, yes... but his away numbers certainly aren't reflective of his actual talent level right now.

[CubColtPacer]

One thing that should be mentioned that hasn't is that Helton's numbers will likely seriously drop moving away from Coors field. Here are his home/road splits from the last 3 years:

 

2004: home-.368/.490/.693, away-.326/.446/.544

2005- home-.353/.471/.616, away-.287/.418/.453

2006- home-.338/.445/.531, away-.266/.360/.421

 

He's 33, his numbers have declined each of the sharply between both of the last 2 years, and his home and away splits have been around 200 points each of the last 3 years. This is most certainly not a sure-fire trade for the Red Sox. In fact-it's certainly possible that they are getting the last 5 years of a contract like Soriano's (depending on how much the Rockies pay) without getting the benefit of the first 3 years of production-and it could be even worse than that if he can't pull those away numbers back up to where they were pre-2006. I think this is an extremely risky trade for the Red Sox, and if they have to give up decent talent, I wouldn't make the deal. Helton might work for 2007, but he's not likely going to work well beyond that.

 

But you can't forget that there's significant statistical proof of a Coors Field "hangover" effect. You can make the point that his numbers have been dropping, yes... but his away numbers certainly aren't reflective of his actual talent level right now.

 

I wholly expect Helton's numbers will be better than his away numbers-but I do think there will be a dropoff from Colorado. Coors Field is perfect for a hitter like Helton, and I'm not sure that Boston will be as kind to him. I could see him putting up an 830-900 OPS next year (which would be significantly better than his away numbers last year) but would that be enough to justify the contract, the talent given up, and the small loss on defense that the Red Sox would give up? Considering the length of the contract, I would say probably not.

[BigbadB]

Coors is and has been a great hitters park. They are attempting to reduce the hitter affects in that park, but the dimensions and the relation to sea level will probably always affect that park, regardless of the efforts taken to minimize the effect.

 

But, the rest of the NL West is nearly an opposite extreme to Coors Field. Petco has replaced Dodger Stadium as one of the toughest places to hit. The BOB (Chase Field) has extreme splits based on whether the roof is closed or not, and it's usually closed in the summer months. That leaves San Francisco, which plays fairly neutral.

 

In the big picture, guys are typically not going to do all that well playing a lot of their games in the NL West. Unless you play for the Rockies, of course.

 

I think Helton will have improved offense playing regularly in the AL East. Between having a superior line up to hit in and some short porches in RF in Boston and NY, I can't see how this wouldn't be a huge win for Boston to bring Helton. They'd be getting a stellar defensive 1b as well.

[Soul]

It's not just Helton in a vacuum; it's adding him to an already pretty darn good hitting lineup.

 

I'm jealous of Boston too.

[nilodnayr]

I wholly expect Helton's numbers will be better than his away numbers-but I do think there will be a dropoff from Colorado. Coors Field is perfect for a hitter like Helton, and I'm not sure that Boston will be as kind to him. I could see him putting up an 830-900 OPS next year (which would be significantly better than his away numbers last year) but would that be enough to justify the contract, the talent given up, and the small loss on defense that the Red Sox would give up? Considering the length of the contract, I would say probably not.

 

When trying to adjust for park differences, ignoring a player's splits at home is the wrong road to take. You never want to ignore data, you want to adjust it. Adjust Helton's numbers at home with his home park factor and his future home park factor. For example, in 2006 according to baseball-reference's park factors, Coors played a 107 for hitters while Fenway played a 102 (there are better park factors out there for lefties, power hitters, etc).

 

Football, basketball, and hockey teams all play on surfaces that are exactly equal in dimension, yet teams perform better at home. A lot more than just dimensions, wall height, altitude, temperature, and wind go into home vs road splits. You have to consider sleeping in your own bed, not having to travel, being with your family, being in a routine, and so on and so forth.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

It's looking like this deal could fall apart over money issues.

 

Link.

 

Boston would be assuming more of Helton's contract than originally believed, with the Rockies subsidizing $36.6 million of the remaining $90.1 million - not almost half as often mentioned-- and just $20 million after this season, according to a major league source with direct knowledge of the negotiations.

 

That would leave the Red Sox to pay Helton $53.5 million over six years, a commitment that so far has prevented them from also parting with either Hansen, Delcarmen or Double-A center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury.

 

Furthermore...

 

As a result, the Rockies are insisting on one if not two good young players, not wanting to show up in spring training in 2008 with nothing to show for Helton.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Looks like this deal is D.O.A.

 

Link.

 

"This is not a trade that we were anxious to complete, but we are always exploring ways to improve our team," Monfort said in a statement. "Discussions like these regarding a player of Todd's talent and character are never easy, and it's not surprising we were not able to reach an agreement. Todd has been and will continue to be an important part of our franchise, and we can't wait to see him with the rest of the Rockies in Tucson."

[nilodnayr]

I hate how for the past 2-3 years writers and everyone alike have been dogging Helton and his declining ability and how he's reached his peak and he'll never be a dominant hitter again, but as soon as there's word he might go to the Red Sox, he all of a sudden makes them the best team ever and he's one of the premier players in baseball again.

 

Why all the capriciousness?

 

Because Helton's OPS has decreased by 100 points each of the last two years, going from uber-elite to really really good. However, his OPS is still going to be about 150 points higher than Lowell. Thats about the difference between Izturis and Tejada. If the cubs ended up adding Tejada and subtracting Izturis, what do you think the appropriate reaction would be.

 

Actual differences in OPS between Izturis and Tejada from 2001 through 2006:

 

2001 - .135

2002 - .306

2003 - .211

2004 - .183

2005 - .240

2006 - .264

 

Only once since they broke into the league has Izturis been within 150 points of OPS to Tejada, and that was in a season where Izturis only had 140 PA. As much as I would love to think Izturis could pull within 150 points of OPS to Tejada, the only way he does that is if he puts up better than normal-numbers before getting badly injured and limiting his playing time (which I would like as well)... while hoping Tejada has a down year.

 

(Sorry, couldn't pass up an opportunity to stress again how utterly inept Izturis is with the bat.)

 

The past is all well and good, but I'm talking about moving forward. I looked at my PECOTA download updated 1/14. PECOTA projected the difference at 156, although since that has increased to 183.. Other projection systems I did not take into consideration. Bill James (209), CHONE (162), I'm ignoring Marcel because its crap, ZiPS (194).

 

As far as Helton vs. Lowell...Bill James (185), CHONE (108), ZiPS (142). PECOTA at the time of my download was at 123, now at 76 (woah, thats a huge difference mostly attributable to a downgrade of Helton).

 

All projections say Tejada/Izturis is a greater difference, but they vary by degree. James by 26, CHONE by 54, ZiPS by 52, the PECOTA I based the claim off of by 33, and now by 107 (lets average those to 70). So, lets say that my comparison of Tejada/Izturis to Helton/Lowell was overblown by about 50 OPS. Sounds fair to me.

[nilodnayr]

It's looking like this deal could fall apart over money issues.

 

Link.

 

Boston would be assuming more of Helton's contract than originally believed, with the Rockies subsidizing $36.6 million of the remaining $90.1 million - not almost half as often mentioned-- and just $20 million after this season, according to a major league source with direct knowledge of the negotiations.

 

That would leave the Red Sox to pay Helton $53.5 million over six years, a commitment that so far has prevented them from also parting with either Hansen, Delcarmen or Double-A center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury.

 

Furthermore...

 

As a result, the Rockies are insisting on one if not two good young players, not wanting to show up in spring training in 2008 with nothing to show for Helton.

 

You'd think at least the Denver Post could get his contract right...hes only signed for another 5 years, the 6th is a club option for 23M that will surely be decline. If this deal falls apart over Delcarmen or Hansen, that would be completely ridiculous. A really good point is to look at the FA class at the corners next year and the Red Sox farm system at the corners. Both are barren (assuming ARod doesn't opt out). I would have pulled the trigger.

[Laura]

Just like you, the article assumes the $4.6M buyout will be exercised in 2012.

 

2007-2010: 16.6M

2011: 19.1M

2012: 23M club option, 4.6M buyout

 

108.5 without buyout, 90.1M with buyout

 

Boston would be assuming more of Helton's contract than originally believed, with the Rockies subsidizing $36.6 million of the remaining $90.1 million - not almost half as often mentioned-- and just $20 million after this season, according to a major league source with direct knowledge of the negotiations.

 

That would leave the Red Sox to pay Helton $53.5 million over six years, a commitment that so far has prevented them from also parting with either Hansen, Delcarmen or Double-A center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury.

[nilodnayr]

Just like you, the article assumes the $4.6M buyout will be exercised in 2012.

 

2007-2010: 16.6M

2011: 19.1M

2012: 23M club option, 4.6M buyout

 

108.5 without buyout, 90.1M with buyout

 

Boston would be assuming more of Helton's contract than originally believed, with the Rockies subsidizing $36.6 million of the remaining $90.1 million - not almost half as often mentioned-- and just $20 million after this season, according to a major league source with direct knowledge of the negotiations.

 

That would leave the Red Sox to pay Helton $53.5 million over six years, a commitment that so far has prevented them from also parting with either Hansen, Delcarmen or Double-A center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury.

 

Exactly, so I guess technically they would be paying that $ over 6 years, but Helton would only be playing for 5 of them.

[mg420]

sounds like the deal's dead for now:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070129&content_id=1789306&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

 

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070130&content_id=1789456&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

[shnsajax]

sounds like the deal's dead for now:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070129&content_id=1789306&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

 

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070130&content_id=1789456&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

 

I bet it revives though. Colorado needs to trade him, Boston wants him and they were close it sounded like.

[SouthSideRyan]

sounds like the deal's dead for now:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070129&content_id=1789306&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

 

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070130&content_id=1789456&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

 

I bet it revives though. Colorado needs to trade him, Boston wants him and they were close it sounded like.

 

Why does Colorado need to trade him when his value is at its lowest?

[Drew Doughty]

sounds like the deal's dead for now:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070129&content_id=1789306&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

 

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070130&content_id=1789456&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

 

I bet it revives though. Colorado needs to trade him, Boston wants him and they were close it sounded like.

 

Why does Colorado need to trade him when his value is at its lowest?

 

Because his value isn't about to go up and he has a terrible contract.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Helton is such a great player though...lol.

[Laura]

Just like you, the article assumes the $4.6M buyout will be exercised in 2012.

 

2007-2010: 16.6M

2011: 19.1M

2012: 23M club option, 4.6M buyout

 

108.5 without buyout, 90.1M with buyout

 

Boston would be assuming more of Helton's contract than originally believed, with the Rockies subsidizing $36.6 million of the remaining $90.1 million - not almost half as often mentioned-- and just $20 million after this season, according to a major league source with direct knowledge of the negotiations.

 

That would leave the Red Sox to pay Helton $53.5 million over six years, a commitment that so far has prevented them from also parting with either Hansen, Delcarmen or Double-A center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury.

 

Exactly, so I guess technically they would be paying that $ over 6 years, but Helton would only be playing for 5 of them.

 

The mention of the six years in the article refers to paying Helton, not to Helton playing. The full article gives more details on the money per year breakdown and the buyout. So I don't see where there's a mistake about his contract in the article.

[nilodnayr]

Just like you, the article assumes the $4.6M buyout will be exercised in 2012.

 

2007-2010: 16.6M

2011: 19.1M

2012: 23M club option, 4.6M buyout

 

108.5 without buyout, 90.1M with buyout

 

Boston would be assuming more of Helton's contract than originally believed, with the Rockies subsidizing $36.6 million of the remaining $90.1 million - not almost half as often mentioned-- and just $20 million after this season, according to a major league source with direct knowledge of the negotiations.

 

That would leave the Red Sox to pay Helton $53.5 million over six years, a commitment that so far has prevented them from also parting with either Hansen, Delcarmen or Double-A center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury.

 

Exactly, so I guess technically they would be paying that $ over 6 years, but Helton would only be playing for 5 of them.

 

The mention of the six years in the article refers to paying Helton, not to Helton playing. The full article gives more details on the money per year breakdown and the buyout. So I don't see where there's a mistake about his contract in the article.

 

Sorry, just read Vance's quotes...i've hit my limit on reading articles on trades that possibly/aren't/might happen later.

[Post Count Padder]

Update:

 

Todd Helton-1B-Rockies Feb. 4 - 1:36 pm et

 

 

The Denver Post reports that Todd Helton has told the Rockies he is prepared to veto all future trades for the next five years.

 

Could such a statement motivate the Rockies to do the deal with the Red Sox without getting a quality prospect in addition to Mike Lowell and Julian Tavarez? Talks are dead now, but they could be revisited if that's the Rockies' desire.

Source: Denver Post