EPatt and Pie PECOTAs

[Lefty]

Putting this in the Minor League section assures that this doesn't get seen, but BP published the best PECOTAs by position for those who have not played in the Majors yet. Patterson was #1 at 2B and Pie was the tops in CF. Patterson projects about 28 runs better offensively than DeRosa and Pie a few runs better than both Jones and Murton (as well as being a plus defender). We certainly have enough well deserved number-centric pessimism on this board so how about some positive news on this front for a change?

[Guancous]

Pie in CF, Patterson or Theriot at 2B and DeRosa at SS. Izturis can be the defensive replacement. I can live with that in March. We can swing a trade with Jacque Jones and bullpen excess if someone tanks/gets hurt.

[YearofDaCubs]

Pie in CF, Patterson or Theriot at 2B and DeRosa at SS. Izturis can be the defensive replacement. I can live with that in March. We can swing a trade with Jacque Jones and bullpen excess if someone tanks/gets hurt.

Why not. Anything to not see Izturis in the lineup and seriously I would rather have Pie here than Erstad and old man Finley. How are Pie's splits against lefties?

[Geech]

I thought about posting something like this myself. PECOTA really likes Patterson; even his 10th percentile projections have him pretty comparable to DeRosa, while the 90th percentile projection might just make him the best player on the team. I've been a fan of Eric for a while, but these have made me very curious to see what he can do this year.

[Geech]

Interesting tidbits from the BP chat with Nate silver today:

 

PECOTA seems to think Felix Pie is ready and maybe even a ROY candidate. The Cubs seem to think he needs another year in Iowa. Is there a reason why PECOTA is so high on Pie? Don't all the strikeouts in the minors bother it?

 

Nate Silver: Honestly, I think the Cubs were spooked by what happened with Corey Patterson, and that's what's motivating the decision to keep Pie down on the farm. But Pie is quite a bit ahead of where Patterson was. CoPat hit .253/.308/.387 in about 350 PAs as a 22-year-old in Iowa. Pie hit .283/.341/.451 in 623 PAs as a 21-year-old in Iowa. Big difference there.

 

To address the other part of the question, sure, Pie's plate discipline is a little bit of a concern. But the combination of power, speed, and being young for one's levels is as time-tested a formula for star potential as it gets.

 

PECOTA really seems to like Eric Patterson as a player, despite a not so great season at AA ball. Even if he only hits his 50th percentile, he would probably end up being one of the Cobs' top players. Is PECOTA being too optimistic or does this seem like a reasonable estimate of his performance?

 

Nate Silver: Keep in mind that those are Southern League numbers, and the entire Southern League posted just a .691 OPS. Plus Patterson had 76 VERY good plate appearances in Iowa. I think PECOTA overrates him, but not by a whole bunch.

 

FYI, Patterson hit .263/.330/.408 in AA this season, and .358/.395/.493 at AAA.

[Mephistopheles]

And while we're at it, PECOTA likes Pie and Patterson more than Zambrano in the short/mid run.

[mg420]

And while we're at it, PECOTA likes Pie and Patterson more than Zambrano in the short/mid run.

 

if they are talking about victor, they are correct. if they are talking about carlos, no way.

[Mephistopheles]

Projected WARP the next five years

 

26.0 Eric Patterson

26.0 Felix Pie

21.1 Carlos Zambrano

 

It has Pie passing Z up next season and likes Patterson more now.

[nilodnayr]

Pie in CF, Patterson or Theriot at 2B and DeRosa at SS. Izturis can be the defensive replacement. I can live with that in March. We can swing a trade with Jacque Jones and bullpen excess if someone tanks/gets hurt.

 

What does PECOTA project for Theriot?

[cheapseats]

And while we're at it, PECOTA likes Pie and Patterson more than Zambrano in the short/mid run.

 

if they are talking about victor, they are correct. if they are talking about carlos, no way.

 

PECOTA isn't a "they;" it's a forecasting system that uses about 100 comparable players for each projection.

 

It's not so outrageous to think that Pie and Patterson could be more valuable than Z in the near future. Pitchers often peak very early - and Carlos already has a lot of miles on him - but hitters follow a more or less predictable curve, so Pie and Patterson should improve a bit over where they are now because they're both still young.

Edited January 20, 2007 by cheapseats

[cheapseats]

How are Pie's splits against lefties?

 

Not good, at least last year.

 

.308 OBP and .290 SLG vs lefties. He killed righties, though.

[mhuber92211]

Projected WARP the next five years

 

26.0 Eric Patterson

26.0 Felix Pie

21.1 Carlos Zambrano

 

It has Pie passing Z up next season and likes Patterson more now.

 

This fact proves that these projections mean little in real life

[Geech]

Projected WARP the next five years

 

26.0 Eric Patterson

26.0 Felix Pie

21.1 Carlos Zambrano

 

It has Pie passing Z up next season and likes Patterson more now.

 

This fact proves that these projections mean little in real life

 

I don't believe it proves any such thing.

[NCCubFan]

PECOTA really seems to like Eric Patterson as a player, despite a not so great season at AA ball. Even if he only hits his 50th percentile, he would probably end up being one of the Cobs' top players. Is PECOTA being too optimistic or does this seem like a reasonable estimate of his performance?

Must be an NSBB member who asked this question, given the Cobs reference. :D

[nilodnayr]

PECOTA really seems to like Eric Patterson as a player, despite a not so great season at AA ball. Even if he only hits his 50th percentile, he would probably end up being one of the Cobs' top players. Is PECOTA being too optimistic or does this seem like a reasonable estimate of his performance?

Must be an NSBB member who asked this question, given the Cobs reference. :D

 

I think Geech took the "U" key off of his computer and mailed it to Oneri.

[imb]

Projected WARP the next five years

 

26.0 Eric Patterson

26.0 Felix Pie

21.1 Carlos Zambrano

 

It has Pie passing Z up next season and likes Patterson more now.

 

This fact proves that these projections mean little in real life

 

I doubt you even know what WARP is, so I'm not sure how you can make this claim. I think the projections are a little wonky too, but I'm not tossing out the whole system here.

[UK1679666180]

Projected WARP the next five years

 

26.0 Eric Patterson

26.0 Felix Pie

21.1 Carlos Zambrano

 

It has Pie passing Z up next season and likes Patterson more now.

 

This fact proves that these projections mean little in real life

 

I doubt you even know what WARP is, so I'm not sure how you can make this claim. I think the projections are a little wonky too, but I'm not tossing out the whole system here.

 

The thing I don't like about these types of projections is that it's based on solely on stats (which includes age obviously) rather than a player's skill set. I know it's ultimate value is geared towards entertainment value (fantasy baseball/fan curiousity) and isn't meant as a be all/end all, but I wouldn't look at a major league projections based only on his tools without looking at what he previously did. I'd still enjoy looking at each of them, but proper context is key.

[Geech]

The thing I don't like about these types of projections is that it's based on solely on stats (which includes age obviously) rather than a player's skill set. I know it's ultimate value is geared towards entertainment value (fantasy baseball/fan curiousity) and isn't meant as a be all/end all, but I wouldn't look at a major league projections based only on his tools without looking at what he previously did. I'd still enjoy looking at each of them, but proper context is key.

 

It is based on his skill set. That's what the similarity index is for.

[UK1679666180]

The thing I don't like about these types of projections is that it's based on solely on stats (which includes age obviously) rather than a player's skill set. I know it's ultimate value is geared towards entertainment value (fantasy baseball/fan curiousity) and isn't meant as a be all/end all, but I wouldn't look at a major league projections based only on his tools without looking at what he previously did. I'd still enjoy looking at each of them, but proper context is key.

 

It is based on his skill set. That's what the similarity index is for.

 

That doesn't grade his ability to hit, run, throw, and defend though.

[Geech]

That doesn't grade his ability to hit, run, throw, and defend though.

 

Essentially the only thing it doesn't account for is his ability to throw. It certainly takes into account his ability to hit and defend, and will take into account some of his baserunning. It doesn't scout him, but that doesn't really matter, those things can be measured.

[UK1679666180]

You can't grade tools based on stats, look at Maybin, he has very few HRs at West Mich, yet his raw power is still very high.

[MPrior]

Um. Wow. Let's hope those projections are close to true. Cause if they are, we could be in some pretty good shape for the future. Woo. Hoo.

[abuck1220]

Projected WARP the next five years

 

26.0 Eric Patterson

26.0 Felix Pie

21.1 Carlos Zambrano

 

It has Pie passing Z up next season and likes Patterson more now.

 

This fact proves that these projections mean little in real life

 

wow, you've been to the future? are there hoverboards?

[MPrior]

Projected WARP the next five years

 

26.0 Eric Patterson

26.0 Felix Pie

21.1 Carlos Zambrano

 

It has Pie passing Z up next season and likes Patterson more now.

 

This fact proves that these projections mean little in real life

 

wow, you've been to the future? are there hoverboards?

 

OBVIOUSLY there are hoverboards. Didn't you see Back to the Future Part II? Duh. I've been waiting around for those things to come out for a while now.

[Productive Outs]

Patterson's projected VORP would put him at #3 among 2b in the NL.