EPatt and Pie PECOTAs

[karenmac]

yep...here's the info from yesterday's BP newsletter.

Top 5 2007 NL Second Basemen, by PECOTA Projected VORP

 

Player, Team, EqA, VORP

 

Chase Utley, PHI, .295, 49.0

Ray Durham, SFN, .295, 38.7

Eric Patterson, CHN, .280, 34.9

Brooks Conrad, HOU, .279, 29.2

Jeff Kent, LAN, .291, 28.2

 

[Rob]

You can't grade tools based on stats, look at Maybin, he has very few HRs at West Mich, yet his raw power is still very high.

 

That's odd, cause PECOTA has his IsoP gradually increasing throughout their five year forecast to a .174 mark in his age 24 season. I'd imagine it would continue to show a nice rise in his next few years after that if they'd show those numbers to us.

[UK1679666180]

You can't grade tools based on stats, look at Maybin, he has very few HRs at West Mich, yet his raw power is still very high.

 

That's odd, cause PECOTA has his IsoP gradually increasing throughout their five year forecast to a .174 mark in his age 24 season. I'd imagine it would continue to show a nice rise in his next few years after that if they'd show those numbers to us.

 

1st, PECOTA has more value from a fantasy baseball standpoint moreso than anything can be graded from watching the player. I don't know how Nate creates the formulas for his projections, but I don't see it including how Maybin's tools grade out (including raw power).

 

A .174 IsoP isn't that good, IIRC. Probably puts him in the 75-100 range of overall hitters who qualify.

 

I'm not going to mention my projections of him as a hitter, but even early on they're higher than that as a 24yo. (probably his 2nd full year in the majors).

[Mephistopheles]

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5836

 

 

UK read this, Silver backs up PECOTA on prospects (and really IMO doesnt do a very good job)

[UK1679666180]

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5836

 

 

UK read this, Silver backs up PECOTA on prospects (and really IMO doesnt do a very good job)

 

It definitely appears to be more of a novelty stat rather than anything substantial.