Marcus Giles to sign with Padres

[nilodnayr]

.262 avg .341 obp .387 slg .729 ops doesn't sound so great to me

 

ok, now post his numbers for 03, 04, and 05.

 

interestingly enough, steroid testing began in 2006.

 

His IsoP in 2004 was only 7 points higher than in 2006.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

There are doubts about DeRosa and Izturis, and justifiably so, but Lou Piniella is no Dusty Baker. I am convinced that if Theriot picks up where he left off and looks good again, Lou will not hesitate in eventually letting him play over one of those two. It's not like the Cubs have a big $$ commitment to either guy, and in Izturis' case, it's just for this year.

 

Personally, Izturis is the one that bothers me, not DeRosa. If you told me the Cubs DP combo would be Theriot and DeRosa, I think I'd be perfectly satisfied. And how do we know that Izturis will even physically be able to play come Opening Day? He was banged up pretty good last year.

[TruffleShuffle]

.262 avg .341 obp .387 slg .729 ops doesn't sound so great to me

 

ok, now post his numbers for 03, 04, and 05.

 

interestingly enough, steroid testing began in 2006.

 

Didn't it begin in '05?

 

Good point. Actually, it began in '04, but the policy was such a joke that year that I'd be surprised if anybody obeyed it. 2005 there was more of a "real" policy, but the punishment was not nearly as strong as it was in 2006. In any case, I'd really be wary about him... he's 5'8" and one would be foolish to ignore the possibility that a good deal of the power he showed came by artificial means.

[Vinestal]

Sure would rather have Giles for a year than DeRosa for three, but I don't think its as big a deal as other issues are.

 

As would I, but if last year wasn't a fluke for DeRosa then he will be very similar to Giles if my memory serves me correctly. The problem is, you know what you're getting from Giles, but I'm not positive DeRosa will repeat (though I'm fairly confident).

Don't get me wrong, I like Giles, but IMO you can no longer claim "you know what you're getting" from him.

 

His production's kinda been all over the map: he's gone from unremarkable (01 and 02) to fantastic (2003) to solid (04 and 05) to disappointing (2006).

I have a lot of doubts about what any team is going to get out of Giles in 2007.

 

The reason I wanted him so badly at this point is that I'm pretty confident about what we're going to get from DeRosa.

 

I dont feel any more confident that Giles will return to earlier numbers in his career than that DeRosa will. I have more confidence that DeRosa will continue what he started last year, than that Giles will somehow become the player he was 2 years ago. Either one is a risk, I take DeRosa over Giles. We'll see how it plays out though.

[Elrhino]

Testing may have began in 2005, but it might have taken some time for him to fully lose all of the muscle mass and strength. Kind of funny that Marcus and Brian saw their power numbers absolutely plummet simultaneously. With the Braves not offering arb. and no more than he got on the open market that has been throwing money everywhere, it seems the rest of baseball found it a little curious as well.

 

Maybe Santa will stuff the stocking with some flax seed oil.

Edited December 18, 2006 by Elrhino

[nilodnayr]

.262 avg .341 obp .387 slg .729 ops doesn't sound so great to me

 

ok, now post his numbers for 03, 04, and 05.

 

interestingly enough, steroid testing began in 2006.

 

Didn't it begin in '05?

 

Yes, thats correct. It began in 2005.

 

Also, Giles' BABIP was .032 lower than expected in 06 (it was .025 and .023 higher than expected in 04 and 05).

[cheapseats]

Giles had to sit at the beginning of 2006 and in the middle of the year with hand injuries.

 

I don't expect him to return to his peak power numbers, but it's tough to grip a bat with an injured thumb.

 

And Giles still put up a .341 OBP.

 

I'll be rooting for Derosa because he's a Cub, but he'll likely be an inferior player to Giles next year.

[nilodnayr]

hey cheapseats... I'm assuming you chose your name from the show. Well I'm on vacation in LA and was hiking in Runyon's Canyon the other day and ran into none other than Randy and Jason Sklar. I don't think they ever leave each other's side. Yay for seeing celebrities in LA!

[YearofDaCubs]

There are doubts about DeRosa and Izturis, and justifiably so, but Lou Piniella is no Dusty Baker. I am convinced that if Theriot picks up where he left off and looks good again, Lou will not hesitate in eventually letting him play over one of those two. It's not like the Cubs have a big $$ commitment to either guy, and in Izturis' case, it's just for this year.

 

Personally, Izturis is the one that bothers me, not DeRosa. If you told me the Cubs DP combo would be Theriot and DeRosa, I think I'd be perfectly satisfied. And how do we know that Izturis will even physically be able to play come Opening Day? He was banged up pretty good last year.

Agreed. I would rather have Theriot in the lineup instead of Izturis.

[TruffleShuffle]

Here's another thing to consider:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/89_2B_season_full_7_20061001.png

 

Note that this year his BABIP dropped to near normal. Here's his BABIP and LD% the past four years:

 

2004

BABIP: .340

LD%: 21.5%

 

2004

BABIP: .365

LD%: 22%

 

2005

BABIP: .337

LD%: 19.4%

 

2006

BABIP: .306

LD%: 21.8%

 

 

He's not fast, and he hits righthanded, so one wouldn't expect him to him to get a lot of help from these factors. He doesn't - his infield hit per ground ball % is 7% (contrast that to Ichiro, whose career rate is 12.8%).

 

Here's more from JC Bradbury, one of the people at Hardball Times, who created a stat called PrOPS, or projected OPS. It gathers several stats together and determines what a guy's OPS "should" have been, and then compares this to what it actually was. This is his way of determining which players have been luckiest in a given year.

 

In my article on PrOPS in the The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006, I list the 25-luckiest PrOPS seasons—meaning OPS exceeded PrOPS—over the past four years. Giles appears twice: his 2003 is number 11 (overperformance of 0.086) and his 2005 is number 19 (overperformance of 0.081).

 

In 2004, he didn't have enough ABs to be eligible, but his PrOPS that year was .047. This past year, it was -.037. This suggests that he was a little unlucky in 2006.

 

So, aside from the steroid issue I mentioned above, I think this also suggests that Giles was quite lucky from 2003-2005. He might not be as bad as he was in 2006, but chances are that 2003-2005 won't happen again either.

[nilodnayr]

There are doubts about DeRosa and Izturis, and justifiably so, but Lou Piniella is no Dusty Baker. I am convinced that if Theriot picks up where he left off and looks good again, Lou will not hesitate in eventually letting him play over one of those two. It's not like the Cubs have a big $$ commitment to either guy, and in Izturis' case, it's just for this year.

 

Personally, Izturis is the one that bothers me, not DeRosa. If you told me the Cubs DP combo would be Theriot and DeRosa, I think I'd be perfectly satisfied. And how do we know that Izturis will even physically be able to play come Opening Day? He was banged up pretty good last year.

Agreed. I would rather have Theriot in the lineup instead of Izturis.

 

I would too, but I don't think its that great of a possibility unless Izturis has lingering health issues or makes repeatedly horrible plays on defense. I think Theriot is the type of guy Lou will love, and I hope he tears it up in ST, but even so, I think something will have to happen to a starter for him to make the jump. Theriot's best chance is for DeRosa to bomb, and while some of us think that might happen, none of us hope for it.

[YearofDaCubs]

There are doubts about DeRosa and Izturis, and justifiably so, but Lou Piniella is no Dusty Baker. I am convinced that if Theriot picks up where he left off and looks good again, Lou will not hesitate in eventually letting him play over one of those two. It's not like the Cubs have a big $$ commitment to either guy, and in Izturis' case, it's just for this year.

 

Personally, Izturis is the one that bothers me, not DeRosa. If you told me the Cubs DP combo would be Theriot and DeRosa, I think I'd be perfectly satisfied. And how do we know that Izturis will even physically be able to play come Opening Day? He was banged up pretty good last year.

Agreed. I would rather have Theriot in the lineup instead of Izturis.

 

I would too, but I don't think its that great of a possibility unless Izturis has lingering health issues or makes repeatedly horrible plays on defense. I think Theriot is the type of guy Lou will love, and I hope he tears it up in ST, but even so, I think something will have to happen to a starter for him to make the jump. Theriot's best chance is for DeRosa to bomb, and while some of us think that might happen, none of us hope for it.

Considering Izturis' injury history I wouldn't be surprised to see him on the DL quite frequently actually.

[Diffusion]

Down years happen. Players with Giles' track record of success and of Giles' age tend to bounce back a lot more often than not. Talk about steriods is at the very least cheap, and completely irrelevant if on the other side of things you're happy to overlook the series of problems Giles had last year with his left hand - a sprained ligament in his middle finger, a jammed thumb and a deep bruise between the index and middle fingers that required a cortisone shot. The bottom line is this - Marcus Giles is a 28-year-old career .285/.361/.448 hitter that plays a good second base. I'll "take my chances" on that over Mark DeRosa every single time.

[A New Era]

No surprise there. It was definitely a pipe dream to hope that the Cubs would show some interest in Giles :(

 

Alot of people were saying the same things about his brother. And Jones outproduced Brian last year. Could we atleast give Derosa a chance?

 

You're back.

Do I really need to go around saying this all the time?

 

Cut the guy a little slack, alright? I'm tired of this crap.

 

Thanks Tim! It'd sure be nice if people actually responded to my comment, instead of resorting to child like teasing.

[nilodnayr]

No surprise there. It was definitely a pipe dream to hope that the Cubs would show some interest in Giles :(

 

Alot of people were saying the same things about his brother. And Jones outproduced Brian last year. Could we atleast give Derosa a chance?

 

You're back.

Do I really need to go around saying this all the time?

 

Cut the guy a little slack, alright? I'm tired of this crap.

 

Thanks Tim! It'd sure be nice if people actually responded to my comment, instead of resorting to child like teasing.

 

Ok, I will respond to your comment. Its ignorant. Just because his brother had a down year and the player we acquired instead of him had an up year (their performance ended up being nearly equivalent), it should have no bearing whatsoever on our view of Marcus. Just because Jody Hull sucked, doesn't mean that hockey teams shouldn't have desired Brett Hull. DeRosa is on our team now and we have no choice but to give him a chance, but that doesn't mean it should end conversation as to whether or not Marcus is going to have a better season than him.

[nilodnayr]

Here's another thing to consider:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/89_2B_season_full_7_20061001.png

 

Note that this year his BABIP dropped to near normal. Here's his BABIP and LD% the past four years:

 

2004

BABIP: .340

LD%: 21.5%

 

2004

BABIP: .365

LD%: 22%

 

2005

BABIP: .337

LD%: 19.4%

 

2006

BABIP: .306

LD%: 21.8%

 

 

He's not fast, and he hits righthanded, so one wouldn't expect him to him to get a lot of help from these factors. He doesn't - his infield hit per ground ball % is 7% (contrast that to Ichiro, whose career rate is 12.8%).

 

Here's more from JC Bradbury, one of the people at Hardball Times, who created a stat called PrOPS, or projected OPS. It gathers several stats together and determines what a guy's OPS "should" have been, and then compares this to what it actually was. This is his way of determining which players have been luckiest in a given year.

 

In my article on PrOPS in the The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006, I list the 25-luckiest PrOPS seasons—meaning OPS exceeded PrOPS—over the past four years. Giles appears twice: his 2003 is number 11 (overperformance of 0.086) and his 2005 is number 19 (overperformance of 0.081).

 

In 2004, he didn't have enough ABs to be eligible, but his PrOPS that year was .047. This past year, it was -.037. This suggests that he was a little unlucky in 2006.

 

So, aside from the steroid issue I mentioned above, I think this also suggests that Giles was quite lucky from 2003-2005. He might not be as bad as he was in 2006, but chances are that 2003-2005 won't happen again either.

 

Another thing to consider if, you know, you didn't read my post a half an hour before yours. Kidding. The PrOPS is interesting, but even with those projected OPS, he would be top 5 or 6 in the NL. Not too shabby for the salary. Interesting that DeRosas PrOPS in 05 was .862, .098 more than his actual. His BABIP was horrible that year. And although it was .348 in 06, his increase in LD% predicted a .346, as opposed to 2005 where his BABIP was .267 actual vs predicted of .324.

[TruffleShuffle]

Another thing to consider if, you know, you didn't read my post a half an hour before yours. Kidding. The PrOPS is interesting, but even with those projected OPS, he would be top 5 or 6 in the NL. Not too shabby for the salary. Interesting that DeRosas PrOPS in 05 was .862, .098 more than his actual. His BABIP was horrible that year. And although it was .348 in 06, his increase in LD% predicted a .346, as opposed to 2005 where his BABIP was .267 actual vs predicted of .324.

 

DeRosa was also very unlucky in 2004. Certainly suggests that 2006 wasn't a complete fluke.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

No surprise there. It was definitely a pipe dream to hope that the Cubs would show some interest in Giles :(

 

Alot of people were saying the same things about his brother. And Jones outproduced Brian last year. Could we atleast give Derosa a chance?

 

You're back.

Do I really need to go around saying this all the time?

 

Cut the guy a little slack, alright? I'm tired of this crap.

 

Thanks Tim! It'd sure be nice if people actually responded to my comment, instead of resorting to child like teasing.

 

Can I respond about your user name instead?

 

I find it ironic that someone with your user name has an anti-Giles-on-Cubs stance. :P

[cheapseats]

No surprise there. It was definitely a pipe dream to hope that the Cubs would show some interest in Giles :(

 

Alot of people were saying the same things about his brother. And Jones outproduced Brian last year. Could we atleast give Derosa a chance?

 

You're back.

Do I really need to go around saying this all the time?

 

Cut the guy a little slack, alright? I'm tired of this crap.

 

Thanks Tim! It'd sure be nice if people actually responded to my comment, instead of resorting to child like teasing.

 

Can I respond about your user name instead?

 

I find it ironic that someone with your user name has an anti-Giles-on-Cubs stance. :P

 

It's a common misconception that the username in question is a reference to Marcus and Brian. It's actually a reference to drummer Mike Giles and his bassist brother Peter Giles who played with Robert Fripp pre-King Crimson.

 

http://www.amazon.com/Cheerful-Insanity-Giles-Fripp/dp/B000001F74

[oldcubsfan]

Maybe people should consider what the Marcus Giles wanted:

 

"Two years ago, Marcus expressed his hopes of eventually playing on the same team as his brother while visiting the Padres in Milwaukee when he was on the disabled list.

 

“I think playing on the same team has been one of our desires for a long time,” Brian Giles said last year while talking about his younger brother. “When I was in the minor leagues, Marcus used to join me for a couple of weeks each summer and ride around on the bus with me.”

[XZero771679666304]

Maybe people should consider what the Marcus Giles wanted:

 

"Two years ago, Marcus expressed his hopes of eventually playing on the same team as his brother while visiting the Padres in Milwaukee when he was on the disabled list.

 

“I think playing on the same team has been one of our desires for a long time,” Brian Giles said last year while talking about his younger brother. “When I was in the minor leagues, Marcus used to join me for a couple of weeks each summer and ride around on the bus with me.”

 

Not exactly new news, either. Just as with Brian last year and Schmidt this year, the Cubs probably never would have had a chance even if they wanted Marcus. You knew he was going to be a Padre as soon as he was a FA.

 

That is unless the Cubs gave him a stupid contract, which people would also hate. Unfortunately, all things are not equal, and not every team with some spare millions has an equal shot at every player on the market.

 

It would be nice if everything was black and white when it comes to this stuff, but it isn't.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

If the Cubs had wanted Marcus, they could have made a trade with the Braves before he was non-tendered and taking his choice out of the matter, at least for one year.

[NorthsideAvenger]

[i mean, come on...who doesn't want to see Brian giving Marcus "knoogies" in between innings, while they are paper football?

[XZero771679666304]

If the Cubs had wanted Marcus, they could have made a trade with the Braves before he was non-tendered and taking his choice out of the matter, at least for one year.

 

Too bad they made a commitment to another 2B before they knew he was going to be non-tendered.

 

Either way, I'm not heartbroken about it.

[BigbadB]

I haven't quite figured out exactly who Atlanta is committed to at 2b just yet. Is it Aybar or Johnson?