A look at the current pitching staff

[Tim]

I've got a new front page article out there about what the staff looks like at this time. If Prior starts on the DL, I see Novoa as the odd man out. Whenever Prior comes off the DL, someone else will have to go. I'm worried about the choice that will be made at that time.

 

Also, if one of the kids is lights out at Iowa, the only pitcher on the major league staff for 2007 with any options remaining is Hill.

 

However, if everyone is healthy and pitching well, it's a good problem to have.

[Soriano12]

Whenever Prior comes off the DL, someone else will have to go. I'm worried about the choice that will be made at that time.

have.

 

Luckily, when Prior goes back on the DL a 2nd time(2-3 weeks) they can bring that player back.

[Guest]

Whenever Prior comes off the DL, someone else will have to go. I'm worried about the choice that will be made at that time.

have.

 

Luckily, when Prior goes back on the DL a 2nd time(2-3 weeks) they can bring that player back.

Only if it is Hill that gets demote or if they're able to DL someone in addition to Rusch when Prior comes back. Nobody else has options remaining to my knowledge.

[YearofDaCubs]

It looks like there is no more for Rusch. I don't think we will see him pitch as a Cub ever again which is a good thing.

[Guest]

It looks like there is no more for Rusch. I don't think we will see him pitch as a Cub ever again which is a good thing.

I've taken that into account in my numbers, though. We're still overstaffed with guaranteed deals.

[jyoung55]

What do people think the chances of Rusch being DFA'd?

[craig]

Tim, I believe both Novoa and Wuertz have a remaining option year. So I've got Novoa in Iowa, barring injury need.

[Danny82]

Why can't Miller go to the pen if another spot in the rotation is needed?

[Guest]

Tim, I believe both Novoa and Wuertz have a remaining option year. So I've got Novoa in Iowa, barring injury need.

I know Wuertz burned an option in 2004 and in 2006. Did he never hit the minors at all in 2005?

 

I thought Novoa burned an option for Detroit in 2004 and has definitely burned options in 2005 and 2006 with the Cubs.

[Guest]

Why can't Miller go to the pen if another spot in the rotation is needed?

He would have to, which is why I have him listed as starter - swing. But who then leaves the pen to make room for him? Or are you thinking of a 13 man pitching staff?

[craig]

I see the staff much as you do, Tim. The way I'm looking at it is that Hill and Wuertz are locks, even though both have option year left.

 

That gives 13 guys who are either locks-despite-options (Hill, Wuertz) or have guaranteed contracts. (I'm not including Rusch). Three of those 13 are health problems (Prior, Wood, and Miller.)

 

Novoa, Marshall, Guzman, and Mateo provide a reasonable pool of options if more than one of the 13 safe-spot guys are hurt.

[Guest]

I see the staff much as you do, Tim. The way I'm looking at it is that Hill and Wuertz are locks, even though both have option year left.

 

That gives 13 guys who are either locks-despite-options (Hill, Wuertz) or have guaranteed contracts. (I'm not including Rusch). Three of those 13 are health problems (Prior, Wood, and Miller.)

 

Novoa, Marshall, Guzman, and Mateo provide a reasonable pool of options if more than one of the 13 safe-spot guys are hurt.

Craig,

 

Are you certain Novoa has an option remaining? I don't see how he could if he burned one for Detroit, which I believe he did.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I see the staff much as you do, Tim. The way I'm looking at it is that Hill and Wuertz are locks, even though both have option year left.

 

That gives 13 guys who are either locks-despite-options (Hill, Wuertz) or have guaranteed contracts. (I'm not including Rusch). Three of those 13 are health problems (Prior, Wood, and Miller.)

 

Novoa, Marshall, Guzman, and Mateo provide a reasonable pool of options if more than one of the 13 safe-spot guys are hurt.

Craig,

 

Are you certain Novoa has an option remaining? I don't see how he could if he burned one for Detroit, which I believe he did.

 

I remember in the middle of the season, craig (at least I think it was craig) posted something about how Novoa still has an option this season.

 

It seems likely at least one of the relievers will get traded before spring.

[Guest]

I see the staff much as you do, Tim. The way I'm looking at it is that Hill and Wuertz are locks, even though both have option year left.

 

That gives 13 guys who are either locks-despite-options (Hill, Wuertz) or have guaranteed contracts. (I'm not including Rusch). Three of those 13 are health problems (Prior, Wood, and Miller.)

 

Novoa, Marshall, Guzman, and Mateo provide a reasonable pool of options if more than one of the 13 safe-spot guys are hurt.

Craig,

 

Are you certain Novoa has an option remaining? I don't see how he could if he burned one for Detroit, which I believe he did.

 

I remember in the middle of the season, craig (at least I think it was craig) posted something about how Novoa still has an option this season.

 

It seems likely at least one of the relievers will get traded before spring.

I remember seeing that, but it makes no sense to me.

 

Here are Novoa's minor league stats: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/N/Roberto-Novoa.shtml

 

I think he was rostered after 2003 (he had 4 yrs of minor league service and would have been rule 5 eligible at that time). He pitched in the minors during 2004 and has definitely burned options the past two years. I could be mistaken and he could have been added to Detroit's 40 man in 2004 and never sent back down, though. But my recollection was that he was sans one option when acquired.

[Illini Iceman]

I see the staff much as you do, Tim. The way I'm looking at it is that Hill and Wuertz are locks, even though both have option year left.

 

That gives 13 guys who are either locks-despite-options (Hill, Wuertz) or have guaranteed contracts. (I'm not including Rusch). Three of those 13 are health problems (Prior, Wood, and Miller.)

 

Novoa, Marshall, Guzman, and Mateo provide a reasonable pool of options if more than one of the 13 safe-spot guys are hurt.

Craig,

 

Are you certain Novoa has an option remaining? I don't see how he could if he burned one for Detroit, which I believe he did.

 

I remember in the middle of the season, craig (at least I think it was craig) posted something about how Novoa still has an option this season.

 

It seems likely at least one of the relievers will get traded before spring.

 

It still does not seem likely to me that the Cubs will carry three lefties in the bullpen. I would be very surprised if Ohman isn't dealt somewhere as part of a package. He would seem to have value and not only do the Cubs have Eyre and Cotts as sure bets for the pen but they also have another lefty in Rapada on the 40 man who looks almost ML ready.

[abuck1220]

i wouldn't be shocked if hill somehow doesn't make the rotation...wouldn't surprise me in the least. if z, lilly, marquis, prior and miller are all healthy (probably not real likely), i think that's your rotation.

 

the cubs have shown a desire to go with 'proven' guys time and time again, and i see no reason why they wouldn't do it here. plus, no matter how much marquis sucks, there's 20 million reasons not to bump him to the pen. hill starts in AAA (or is traded for a jay gibbons type turd) if all those guys are healthy.

[craig]

Craig, Are you certain Novoa has an option remaining? I don't see how he could if he burned one for Detroit, which I believe he did.

 

He definitely used one in 2004 for Detroit and one in 2005 with the Cubs. But he did not use one in 2006.

 

He appeared in only four games for Iowa, and he was never optioned there. You may recall that he had some valley fever or something in spring training, so he hardly pitched at all. Thus he opened at Iowa not on option, but on a rehab assignment. And after his 4-game rehab, he was called back up.

 

Even if he had been optioned, I believe it still wouldn't count as an option year. I believe there is some minimum number of days that you need to stay down for it to count, can't remember if it's 15 or 30. He wasn't on the Iowa roster long enough for it to burn up one of his options years.

 

Wuertz of course spent all of 2005 with the cubs.

 

I am very certain about this, that Novoa has another year remaining.

 

I'm also positive that Guzman does, too.

[Guest]

Craig, Are you certain Novoa has an option remaining? I don't see how he could if he burned one for Detroit, which I believe he did.

 

He definitely used one in 2004 for Detroit and one in 2005 with the Cubs. But he did not use one in 2006.

 

He appeared in only four games for Iowa, and he was never optioned there. You may recall that he had some valley fever or something in spring training, so he hardly pitched at all. Thus he opened at Iowa not on option, but on a rehab assignment. And after his 4-game rehab, he was called back up.

 

Even if he had been optioned, I believe it still wouldn't count as an option year. I believe there is some minimum number of days that you need to stay down for it to count, can't remember if it's 15 or 30. He wasn't on the Iowa roster long enough for it to burn up one of his options years.

 

Wuertz of course spent all of 2005 with the cubs.

 

I am very certain about this, that Novoa has another year remaining.

 

I'm also positive that Guzman does, too.

Interesting. I thought for sure that Novoa pitched more than that in Iowa this year. Oops!

 

Thanks for the correction. Novoa to Iowa this year, then.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I'm also positive that Guzman does, too.

 

I've read somewhere else (wish I'd remember where) that confirmed that Guzman does.

 

Thanks for the exact info on Novoa.

[CubsWin]

hill starts in AAA (or is traded for a jay gibbons type turd) if all those guys are healthy.

This analysis defies any and all logic, abuck. Hendry stakes his reputation on Hill long before he makes good at the major league level refusing to include him in deals that would have brought back much better players than Jay Gibbons, but now that Hill has shown he can be dominate in the bigs, he'll give up on him, drop him out of the rotation for someone with a low base contract like Wade Miller and give him up for a "turd".

 

If you really believe that, be my guest, but don't expect anyone else to take your comments seriously.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

hill starts in AAA (or is traded for a jay gibbons type turd) if all those guys are healthy.

This analysis defies any and all logic, abuck. Hendry stakes his reputation on Hill long before he makes good at the major league level refusing to include him in deals that would have brought back much better players than Jay Gibbons, but now that Hill has shown he can be dominate in the bigs, he'll give up on him, drop him out of the rotation for someone with a low base contract like Wade Miller and give him up for a "turd".

 

If you really believe that, be my guest, but don't expect anyone else to take your comments seriously.

 

So if Miller and Prior are both ready to go to start the season, what do you think the rotation looks like?

[WrigleyField 22]

hill starts in AAA (or is traded for a jay gibbons type turd) if all those guys are healthy.

This analysis defies any and all logic, abuck. Hendry stakes his reputation on Hill long before he makes good at the major league level refusing to include him in deals that would have brought back much better players than Jay Gibbons, but now that Hill has shown he can be dominate in the bigs, he'll give up on him, drop him out of the rotation for someone with a low base contract like Wade Miller and give him up for a "turd".

 

If you really believe that, be my guest, but don't expect anyone else to take your comments seriously.

 

So if Miller and Prior are both ready to go to start the season, what do you think the rotation looks like?

 

Six Man Rotation! :D :D

[CubsWin]

Novoa to Iowa this year, then.

And based on his performance last season, that's exactly where he belongs.

 

He's got stuff. A good fastball and a good slider, but he leaves things over the plate a bit too much. Control within the zone seems to be lacking. In that way, he reminds me of Guzman. Of course, Novoa lacks control out of the zone, too, sometimes.

[CubsWin]

hill starts in AAA (or is traded for a jay gibbons type turd) if all those guys are healthy.

This analysis defies any and all logic, abuck. Hendry stakes his reputation on Hill long before he makes good at the major league level refusing to include him in deals that would have brought back much better players than Jay Gibbons, but now that Hill has shown he can be dominate in the bigs, he'll give up on him, drop him out of the rotation for someone with a low base contract like Wade Miller and give him up for a "turd".

 

If you really believe that, be my guest, but don't expect anyone else to take your comments seriously.

 

So if Miller and Prior are both ready to go to start the season, what do you think the rotation looks like?

Whoever the best five are, regardless of who has options. The Cubs aren't paying Miller enough to go with him over Hill if Hill is pitching better.

 

I certainly don't think that Hill gets traded for a "turd".

 

This is what it is going to look like if Hendry isn't going to count on Prior or Miller which everyone here was calling for him to do. Chances are one or maybe even both of Prior and Miller won't start the season on the 25-man roster. Also, bullpen arms can still be traded opening a spot for Miller to start the season in the pen instead of sending Hill down to AAA no matter how well he is performing. Thinking that the Cubs would demote Rich Hill even if he is pitching better than the other veteran options doesn't make much sense. The reason why the Cubs are covering their bases with options is so that they can have the best chance of winning. They will go with the 5 guys that give them the best chance to win, period. And thats how it should be, no?

Edited December 9, 2006 by CubsWin

[craig]

I think the number of pitchers on the roster is now ideal, given the Miller/Wood/Prior situation.

 

You've got 13 guys. Sure, that's an excess problem...... in the impossible event that not only do Prior, Wood, and Miller all show up healthy, but the other 10 indended guys all stay healthy.

 

In the almost impossible event that all 13 guys do show up healthy, well, then you can worry about who's out. That's so unlikely it's not even worth fussing about. Certainly there is no need to be trading anybody on account of surplus, that's for sure.

 

Miller is $1.5. That's your disposable contract.

 

Guzman, Marshall, Marmol, and Mateo provide some rotation depth. None are guys you should assume are ready, although any of them might be. And, if any of them look superb in spring, Prior will be on the DL and Miller you can cut, or send to more rehab because his arm isn't still as strong as it was, or move to the pen in place of Wood or whomever else is hurt.

 

Novoa, Marmol, and Miller provide some bullpen depth, for Wood or whomever else is disabled there.

 

To me it seems like a pretty good balance. There's a wide open spot, so if Guzman looks like Cy Young, it's not like he's blocked. If Prior shows up and surprises, it's not like there isn't a place to put him.

 

The only way you've got a surplus/opportunity problem is if both Prior and Guzman look like Cy Young. Well, how big of a "problem" is that likely to be?

 

Ideally some of the Guzman/Marshall/Mateo/Marmol crowd will get a lot of Iowa time, like Hill did last year, and will dominate. So that perhaps when they do get a shot, like Hill his second round they'll really be ready, which Guzman and Ryu most certainly were not this past year.

 

If those guys pitch well at AAA, they will be very valuable properties. Right now, they aren't really. It's not like any of them has both the polish and the stuff to be the main bait for getting Westbrook or Jennings or Vernon Wells or Brad Penny or whomever. They all look interesting but not that big-league ready. A good year at Iowa could change that a lot.

 

Marquis could be a disaster. But I also think he has some Jacque potential. A year ago everybody was fuzzed that Jacque was getting too much too long. Where would Pie be able to squeeze in with both Pierre and Jacque blocking things? And how could you possible move jacque's contract? It took only a couple months for Jacque's value/contract to be quite movable, and now if we move him just as a salary dump, most of the posters who ripped his signing in the first place will now rip Hendry for not getting more value for him.

 

I'm just thinking that Marquis has a shot to pitch decently enough so thatnext year he might look as appealing an average pitcher as Padilla, Meche, and Lilly. Or, at least at $14/2 rather than $40/4 he might look as attractive. So, if Prior fills #5, Guzman looks like Cy Young but he's blocked by Marquis, I imagine that if Marquis does decent you'll have a chance to move him and his salary next winter, to clear a space for Guzman (or Marshall, or marmol, or whomever...) and clear a little payroll to spend on Prior or shortstop or CF or whatever.