A look at the current pitching staff

[RichHillIsABeast]

There's no way Hill goes to AAA or is taken out of the rotation if he pitches like he did in the 2nd half. Unless Prior comes back at 100%, Hill could be the #2 starter (based on 2nd half performance).

 

the problem is, there's probably no way hill pitches like he did in the 2nd half.

 

BOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

[UK1679666180]

I doubt he'll be able to maintain a line of 80IP 62H 24BB 79Ks either throughout the season.

 

Possible? Sure. Probable? Not very likely.

[CubsWin]

I doubt he'll be able to maintain a line of 80IP 62H 24BB 79Ks either throughout the season.

 

Possible? Sure. Probable? Not very likely.

True that. He will likely regress, but how far? Will he have an ERA over 4.50? The zips and pecota projections are a lot better than that, in the mid-3s IIRC, so yes, of course, he likely won't maintain an under 3 ERA all season long, but he likely won't be worse than Lilly's or Marquis's career averages either.

[UK1679666180]

Too hard to tell at this stage, PECOTA as well as any other predictive software can't calculate for the intangible things he'll go thru facing a team for the 3rd or 4th time in a season or twice in two weeks as well adjusting to hitter adjustments.

 

He'll be good enough to merit keeping in the rotation, but not likely good enough to count on as anything above a 3-4 starter for now.

[abuck1220]

There's no way Hill goes to AAA or is taken out of the rotation if he pitches like he did in the 2nd half. Unless Prior comes back at 100%, Hill could be the #2 starter (based on 2nd half performance).

 

the problem is, there's probably no way hill pitches like he did in the 2nd half.

 

BOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

 

dude, i've been pimping rich hill since you were in diapers. but even i'm slightly less optimistic about his 07 than some of projections i've seen for him.

[Soul]

There's no way Hill goes to AAA or is taken out of the rotation if he pitches like he did in the 2nd half. Unless Prior comes back at 100%, Hill could be the #2 starter (based on 2nd half performance).

 

the problem is, there's probably no way hill pitches like he did in the 2nd half.

 

I've heard a few scout-types say Hill is possibly the best pitching prospect in the majors right now, based on his K/inn numbers in the minors and what he did in the last 2 months of the season.

 

I'm no scout, but I don't think it's a stretch to think Rich Hill can be a solid pitcher in this league.

[Guest]

There's no way Hill goes to AAA or is taken out of the rotation if he pitches like he did in the 2nd half. Unless Prior comes back at 100%, Hill could be the #2 starter (based on 2nd half performance).

 

the problem is, there's probably no way hill pitches like he did in the 2nd half.

 

I've heard a few scout-types say Hill is possibly the best pitching prospect in the majors right now, based on his K/inn numbers in the minors and what he did in the last 2 months of the season.

 

I'm no scout, but I don't think it's a stretch to think Rich Hill can be a solid pitcher in this league.

hmm...qualify "pitching prospect in the majors"

 

Hill doesn't qualify as a rookie, so you can't use that to differentiate between him and, say, Felix Hernandez, Liriano or Verlander. I'm thrilled to have Hill on the team, but I could list at least 5-10 young pitchers with comparable experience that I'd take in front of him.

[CoolHandLuke]

There's no way Hill goes to AAA or is taken out of the rotation if he pitches like he did in the 2nd half. Unless Prior comes back at 100%, Hill could be the #2 starter (based on 2nd half performance).

 

the problem is, there's probably no way hill pitches like he did in the 2nd half.

 

I've heard a few scout-types say Hill is possibly the best pitching prospect in the majors right now, based on his K/inn numbers in the minors and what he did in the last 2 months of the season.

 

I'm no scout, but I don't think it's a stretch to think Rich Hill can be a solid pitcher in this league.

 

In the second half of last year he pitched like one of the top pitchers in baseball, though. He can still pitch very effectively and not pitch nearly as good as his second half of 06.

[Soul]

There's no way Hill goes to AAA or is taken out of the rotation if he pitches like he did in the 2nd half. Unless Prior comes back at 100%, Hill could be the #2 starter (based on 2nd half performance).

 

the problem is, there's probably no way hill pitches like he did in the 2nd half.

 

I've heard a few scout-types say Hill is possibly the best pitching prospect in the majors right now, based on his K/inn numbers in the minors and what he did in the last 2 months of the season.

 

I'm no scout, but I don't think it's a stretch to think Rich Hill can be a solid pitcher in this league.

hmm...qualify "pitching prospect in the majors"

 

Hill doesn't qualify as a rookie, so you can't use that to differentiate between him and, say, Felix Hernandez, Liriano or Verlander. I'm thrilled to have Hill on the team, but I could list at least 5-10 young pitchers with comparable experience that I'd take in front of him.

 

I don't know. I'm just relaying what I heard a few people say on the radio a few weeks back.

[RichHillIsABeast]

There's no way Hill goes to AAA or is taken out of the rotation if he pitches like he did in the 2nd half. Unless Prior comes back at 100%, Hill could be the #2 starter (based on 2nd half performance).

 

the problem is, there's probably no way hill pitches like he did in the 2nd half.

 

BOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

 

dude, i've been pimping rich hill since you were in diapers. but even i'm slightly less optimistic about his 07 than some of projections i've seen for him.

 

So there's absolutely no way he pitches like he did in the second half, huh? No way?

 

I disagree. He's done nothing but dominate at every level above low A, including the majors. He's fully capable of putting up a sub 3.00 ERA.

 

He did it in A ball. Almost did it in AA. Did it in AAA. Did it in 1/2 a season in the bigs.

 

I don't think it's a reach at all to think Hill can put up those type of numbers in 2007.

[CubsWin]

There's no way Hill goes to AAA or is taken out of the rotation if he pitches like he did in the 2nd half. Unless Prior comes back at 100%, Hill could be the #2 starter (based on 2nd half performance).

 

the problem is, there's probably no way hill pitches like he did in the 2nd half.

 

BOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

 

dude, i've been pimping rich hill since you were in diapers. but even i'm slightly less optimistic about his 07 than some of projections i've seen for him.

 

So there's absolutely no way he pitches like he did in the second half, huh? No way?

 

I disagree. He's done nothing but dominate at every level above low A, including the majors. He's fully capable of putting up a sub 3.00 ERA.

 

He did it in A ball. Almost did it in AA. Did it in AAA. Did it in 1/2 a season in the bigs.

 

I don't think it's a reach at all to think Hill can put up those type of numbers in 2007.

Given the type of absolute domination he laid down in AAA the last two seasons and how he brought it with him to the bigs in August and September, it is completely legitimate to say that he can keep it up. I think it would be risky to expect him to, however.

 

It is much safer to expect some regression, but the question no one seems to be answering is just how much regression should be expected. No team in the NL last season was able to claim 2 pitchers who had an ERA under 4 and pitched around 200 innings. Z is practically a lock to do so. If Hill can do that as well, he could legitamately be called a #2 starter. Is an ERA under 4 and around 200 innings a reasonable expectation for Rich Hill given the numbers he has put up with consistency over the last two seasons?

[b_wiggy_66]

Bill James predicts Hill to lead the NL in strikeouts :D

[samhainn77]

There's no way Hill goes to AAA or is taken out of the rotation if he pitches like he did in the 2nd half. Unless Prior comes back at 100%, Hill could be the #2 starter (based on 2nd half performance).

 

the problem is, there's probably no way hill pitches like he did in the 2nd half.

 

BOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

 

dude, i've been pimping rich hill since you were in diapers. but even i'm slightly less optimistic about his 07 than some of projections i've seen for him.

 

So there's absolutely no way he pitches like he did in the second half, huh? No way?

 

I disagree. He's done nothing but dominate at every level above low A, including the majors. He's fully capable of putting up a sub 3.00 ERA.

 

He did it in A ball. Almost did it in AA. Did it in AAA. Did it in 1/2 a season in the bigs.

 

I don't think it's a reach at all to think Hill can put up those type of numbers in 2007.

Given the type of absolute domination he laid down in AAA the last two seasons and how he brought it with him to the bigs in August and September, it is completely legitimate to say that he can keep it up. I think it would be risky to expect him to, however.

 

It is much safer to expect some regression, but the question no one seems to be answering is just how much regression should be expected. No team in the NL last season was able to claim 2 pitchers who had an ERA under 4 and pitched around 200 innings. Z is practically a lock to do so. If Hill can do that as well, he could legitamately be called a #2 starter. Is an ERA under 4 and around 200 innings a reasonable expectation for Rich Hill given the numbers he has put up with consistency over the last two seasons?

 

I'd feel a lot better about Hill's 2007 if he showed up to camp with another pitch in his arsenal. Sure the curve is eating people alive, but once the league starts waiting for his less than overpowering fastball...it's going to be a little less pretty. I know he was dabbling with a change. Hopefully he brings it fully developed next year. I think it's possible to maintain dominance with 3 pitches, much less likely with 2.

[Mephistopheles]

and ZiPS projected Rich Hill with a 3.65 ERA. Dunno about PECOTA.

 

Of course we're not expecting Hill to have a 2.55 or whatever his ERA was the last two months of the season, but I think it's fairly clear that he turned the corner and it's not unreasonable to expect him to pitch very well next season.

 

Still his September numbers were pretty close to what he did in triple a

 

10.7 K/9 vs 12.1 K/9

2.1 BB/9 vs 1.9 BB/9

1.98 ERA vs 1.80 ERA

 

I'd be surprised if Hills ERA was over 4.00 next season and I don't expect anyone outside of Zambrano on the Cubs to do that for 160 innings. Hendry's held Hill at high regard for the last two seasons and he's not going to sign someone to take his spot after he became our best pitcher for a third of the season. He's not that stupid.

[abuck1220]

There's no way Hill goes to AAA or is taken out of the rotation if he pitches like he did in the 2nd half. Unless Prior comes back at 100%, Hill could be the #2 starter (based on 2nd half performance).

 

the problem is, there's probably no way hill pitches like he did in the 2nd half.

 

BOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

 

dude, i've been pimping rich hill since you were in diapers. but even i'm slightly less optimistic about his 07 than some of projections i've seen for him.

 

So there's absolutely no way he pitches like he did in the second half, huh? No way?

 

 

could you please show me where i said that?

 

and i don't need you to tell me how good hill is or can be...i was pushing for hill long before you strolled into town. so save your lectures regarding hill's awesomeness for two years ago.

[RichHillIsABeast]

There's no way Hill goes to AAA or is taken out of the rotation if he pitches like he did in the 2nd half. Unless Prior comes back at 100%, Hill could be the #2 starter (based on 2nd half performance).

 

the problem is, there's probably no way hill pitches like he did in the 2nd half.

 

BOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

 

dude, i've been pimping rich hill since you were in diapers. but even i'm slightly less optimistic about his 07 than some of projections i've seen for him.

 

So there's absolutely no way he pitches like he did in the second half, huh? No way?

 

 

could you please show me where i said that?

 

and i don't need you to tell me how good hill is or can be...i was pushing for hill long before you strolled into town. so save your lectures regarding hill's awesomeness for two years ago.

 

Wolverines fan here. I've known about Rich Hill long before you (two years? wow!!!), but that's ok. Whatever makes you feel superior on a message board. :roll:

[abuck1220]

i concede. you're the bestest rich hill guy ever of all time. you knew he was a future hall of famer the moment he was conceived.

 

so anyway...where did i say that he absolutely wouldn't pitch like he did in the second half?

[RammyFanny]

This is a little OT, but with all the overpaying we've done on pitching, I found this snippet from the tribune interesting:

His starters will cost around $31.5 million if Prior is included, as opposed to the $34.8 million last season on the five starters who were pegged to be in the rotation—Wood, Prior, Zambrano, Greg Maddux and Glendon Rusch

[Holy Cow]

This is a little OT, but with all the overpaying we've done on pitching, I found this snippet from the tribune interesting:

His starters will cost around $31.5 million if Prior is included, as opposed to the $34.8 million last season on the five starters who were pegged to be in the rotation—Wood, Prior, Zambrano, Greg Maddux and Glendon Rusch

 

Haha, thanks, that helps keep things in perspective. However, I'd take Maddux over Lilly or Marquis.

[RichHillIsABeast]

i concede. you're the bestest rich hill guy ever of all time. you knew he was a future hall of famer the moment he was conceived.

 

so anyway...where did i say that he absolutely wouldn't pitch like he did in the second half?

 

Meh. Chill out, abuck. No need for diaper remarks and snide comments. I simply stated that I knew who Rich Hill was quite awhile ago after you started the whole holier than thou routine.

 

Sorry I used "absolutely" instead of "probably." My bad.

[BigbadB]

I think you both need to chill out.

 

Because I knew Rich Hill before he was conceived.

[Sammy Sofa]

I am Rich Hill's father.

[RichHillIsABeast]

I am Rich Hill's father.

 

Then we'd better get a DNA test done, b/c BBB has too much info about your son.

[Soul]

Bill James predicts Hill to lead the NL in strikeouts :D

 

I'll take it.

 

Bill James for teh win. 8-)

[blufftonbuck]

That is a nice looking staff at Iowa!!!!!!