2007 Cubs ZiPS projections

[Mephistopheles]

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2007_zips_projections_chicago_cubs/

 

Rich Hill goes off.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Wuertz for closer

[rocket]

That'd be excellent if Murton puts up .315 .388 .515

[CaliforniaRaisin]

That'd be excellent if Murton puts up .315 .388 .515

 

And if Hill puts up 218 K/54 BB and a 2.69 ERA.

[CP_414]

How close are these things typically?

[Mephistopheles]

generally PECOTA, ZiPS and several others have an correlation coefficient around .7 for OPS. The RMSE is less than .100, like .075 I think. Not great, but it sure as hell going to be better than most people going though and predicting things on hear-say.

 

If that .7 holds true for ERA, then it's a helluva lot better than the previous years ERA which is like .4.

[Balsa]

Maybe it's the Cubs fan in me, but I really see Murton following through on that optimistic prediction.

 

And I'm not at all surprised by Hill's prediction. Anyone who saw him after the All-Star break saw the clouds open up and suddenly he's a #2-#3 pitcher.

 

Anyway, this just serves to remind me that we need another big bat so that JJ isn't batting anything higher than #6 in the lineup. Those 25 homers would be nice, but he's not a middle of the order guy.

 

I wonder if Barrett shouldn't bat #2....?

[SoonerCubFan]

Where's Arod, Soriano, and Schmidt?

 

Seriously, I too think Murton could end up closer to the optimistic projection, and if healthy Z and Ramirez should easily blow by the mean projections, as should DLee. I suspect Barrett could fall off some and would amazed if Izuturis approached his mean projection.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Izturis with a 320 OBP? Bwahahahahaha!

[Soriano12]

Restovich and Moore combine for 38HR's in platoon/backup roles.

:shock:

 

Can I buy some mushrooms from this site?

 

edit...I'm assuming the stats are based on them each playing 162 games.

[abuck1220]

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Rich Hill

ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K

Optimistic (15%) 2.69 16 5 33 30 192 143 59 22 54 218

Mean 3.65 12 8 31 28 175 148 71 25 56 190

Pessimistic (15%) 4.53 7 8 25 23 135 129 68 22 51 131

 

That last little bit completely floored me, to the extent that I was

trying to find an excuse to post a Player Spotlight that didn't make

me look like I was on crack. Simply put, ZiPS likes Hill better than

practically every other pitcher in baseball with minimal MLB experience.

The strides he's made in in the last year have turned his career

around, as we saw after the All-Star break in the majors. The

turnaround from 2005 to 2006 in the minors was just as pronounced,

as Hill went from allowing a home run every 6 innings to allowing a

home run every 33 innings.

 

 

:shock:

 

the 'optimistic' projection would likely win him the cy young.

[Omar]

According to that site, the Cubs will go 155-210 in the regular season.

 

That's 365 games.

 

Did we miss some Bud Selig memo?

[abuck1220]

pretty harsh on marmol.

[SouthSideRyan]

According to that site, the Cubs will go 155-210 in the regular season.

 

That's 365 games.

 

Did we miss some Bud Selig memo?

 

Touched on earlier, full playing time/season is assumed for everyone, because really what is a projecting what Ryan O' Malley would do over 11 innings?

[Mephistopheles]

According to that site, the Cubs will go 155-210 in the regular season.

 

That's 365 games.

 

Did we miss some Bud Selig memo?

 

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.

[BigbadB]

According to that site, the Cubs will go 155-210 in the regular season.

 

That's 365 games.

 

 

And, STILL no 20 game winners. :D

[Guest]

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Rich Hill

ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K

Optimistic (15%) 2.69 16 5 33 30 192 143 59 22 54 218

Mean 3.65 12 8 31 28 175 148 71 25 56 190

Pessimistic (15%) 4.53 7 8 25 23 135 129 68 22 51 131

 

That last little bit completely floored me, to the extent that I was

trying to find an excuse to post a Player Spotlight that didn't make

me look like I was on crack. Simply put, ZiPS likes Hill better than

practically every other pitcher in baseball with minimal MLB experience.

The strides he's made in in the last year have turned his career

around, as we saw after the All-Star break in the majors. The

turnaround from 2005 to 2006 in the minors was just as pronounced,

as Hill went from allowing a home run every 6 innings to allowing a

home run every 33 innings.

 

 

:shock:

 

the 'optimistic' projection would likely win him the cy young.

What floors me about that Opt/Pes breakdown is that he allows the exact same number of HR, the walks are three higher with the optimistic performance and yet the ERA is nearly half. Of course, the nearly doubled K numbers probably have much to do with that.

[Warpticon]

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Rich Hill

ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K

Optimistic (15%) 2.69 16 5 33 30 192 143 59 22 54 218

Mean 3.65 12 8 31 28 175 148 71 25 56 190

Pessimistic (15%) 4.53 7 8 25 23 135 129 68 22 51 131

 

That last little bit completely floored me, to the extent that I was

trying to find an excuse to post a Player Spotlight that didn't make

me look like I was on crack. Simply put, ZiPS likes Hill better than

practically every other pitcher in baseball with minimal MLB experience.

The strides he's made in in the last year have turned his career

around, as we saw after the All-Star break in the majors. The

turnaround from 2005 to 2006 in the minors was just as pronounced,

as Hill went from allowing a home run every 6 innings to allowing a

home run every 33 innings.

 

 

:shock:

 

the 'optimistic' projection would likely win him the cy young.

What floors me about that Opt/Pes breakdown is that he allows the exact same number of HR, the walks are three higher with the optimistic performance and yet the ERA is nearly half. Of course, the nearly doubled K numbers probably have much to do with that.

 

You seem to have overlooked the 57 innings pitched difference.

[frostwyrm]

4.21 ERA for Eyre. I hope that's wrong, unless he's traded.

[TruffleShuffle]

There's no way in hell that Pawelek would be better than Gallagher or Veal next year.

 

Also, Murton's mean numbers seem a little thin to me... good OBP but I think the power will be there a little more, and I think he'll score more runs than that.