Zambrano for A-Rod . . . would ya?

[goonys evil twin]

The only other question is if it is easier to Replace Zambrano then it would be to get Arod Production. Again, NO Cub came close to Arod last season in what was a down year for him. The closest was Aram. Now looking at Zambrano, some Cubs came somewhat close to his production and many other pitcher had similar numbers to Zambrano.

 

What a lie.

 

Lee has outproduced ARod in the past. No Cubs pitcher has come close to matching Zambrano.

[Pinktermite]

I don't know that you can make the assumption that ARod is past his great years, Goony. ARod has phenomenal numbers for a man his age, and the assumption can also be made that he's the exception to the rule you are talking about.

 

There's a guy called Bonds out there that disproved such things. (albeit steroid induced...so I digress).

 

Just saying.

[goonys evil twin]

I don't know that you can make the assumption that ARod is past his great years, Goony.

 

I feel very comfortable making the assumption that he's past his prime, he'll still have great years, I never said otherwise.

 

167 OPS+ at 24

164 OPS+ at 25

167 OPS+ at 29

 

145 OPS+ for his career, and he's been almost right at, or below that number in 3 of the past 4 years. He's probably got another year in him where he'll return to that level, because he's so great. But other guys are already at that level and just getting better, or staying above. I bet he's at 145-155 for most of the next 4 years, he might approach 170 once and might fall below 140 once.

 

And his ability to play SS is still in question after 3 years away. There is a not a strong history of big SS staying at the position into their 30's, let alone leaving and coming back.

[Pinktermite]

Clearly ARod is worth getting for anyone other than guys named Zambrano, DLee, and Aramis (because the offense lost wouldn't make up for the offense gained).

 

Sell the friggin farm to get this guy...he's a game changer...and I predict the guy will get better, because he's ARod (but I admit this is a guess).

 

Sooner or later the Cubs are going to have to pull the trigger on something risky...and this seems to be the risk that has the best possibility of a return on the investment for what we'd have to give up to get him.

[soccer10k]

I don't know that you can make the assumption that ARod is past his great years, Goony. ARod has phenomenal numbers for a man his age, and the assumption can also be made that he's the exception to the rule you are talking about.

 

There's a guy called Bonds out there that disproved such things. (albeit steroid induced...so I digress).

 

Just saying.

 

That Bonds guy was also likely better in his prime than ARod and comparing the two isn't really fair at this point. ARod's career high OPS+ at this point in his career is 167. By age 30 Bonds had put up OPS+ of 170, 205, 206, 182, and 168. Bonds also had an OPS over 1.000 every season starting at age 27 up until this year (when he barely missed it with a .999 OPS) and also never had an OPS+ of less than 160 after the age of 24. No offense to ARod, because he is a great player, but comparing him to Bonds isn't fair to ARod.

[baseball7897]

Carlos Zambrano has probably the single highest trade value in the game of baseball, save perhaps Liriano or Papelbon.

That's simply not true. A guy like John Lackey may be an inferior pitcher to Zambrano, but his trade value is higher because he's two years away from free agency and Zambrano is only one year away.

 

I would love to see Lackey on the Cubs.

[soccer10k]

Carlos Zambrano has probably the single highest trade value in the game of baseball, save perhaps Liriano or Papelbon.

There's no way that's true. Off the top of my head I'd take Johan Santana, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, and David Wright straight up for Zambrano. And probably a handful of others too.

 

But not ARod.

I seem to like pitchers more than you and Soccer, but that's ok. I will say I'd take Pujols/Cabrera for Z, should've remembered that.

 

As somebody else said, I'll take a player that goes out there every day as opposed to a player that goes out once every 5 days. Just my personal opinion.

[CP_414]

No.

 

I don't think we have to. I think if we trade for ARod it will look something like this.

 

Cubs Get: ARod, $4M per year

Yankees Get: Dontrelle Willis, Scott Eyre

Marlins Get: Felix Pie, Sean Gallagher, Another Cub prospect

[davearm]

I'm having nightmares of this thread being bumped a little over a year from now, when ARod's elsewhere, and Zambrano's pulling on another team's jersey at a press conference announcing his signing as a free agent.

 

Unless/until Zambrano has signed an extension, ARod's the proverbial bird in hand, and Z is the 2 in the bush.

[mhuber92211]

wow...how ridiculously overvalued Zambrano is. Sure he is a great pitcher and a bonefied Ace but there is no way he is even in the top 10 best pitchers in the game. Just amazing how Arod wouldn't be welcomed for Zambrano.

 

Pitching is a valuable comodity but not as valuable as one makes it out to be. No single pitcher is a sure thing as evidenced but the supposed "Ace" getting beat in most every single matchup this post season. How is a player who plays once every 5 days more valuable then a player that plays all 5 days? Logic be damned apparently.

 

The question boils down to if you would want a rotation of Hill, Marmol, Guzman, Prior & Mateo (or something similar) with Arod as your SS or would you rather have no Arod and take away Mateo and add Z. Which Transaction makes the bigger impact?

[muntjack]

Do you realize Zambrano hasn't come close to his ceiling yet?

 

He was top 20 in the league in WHIP while leading the majors in walks.

 

He has a lot of room to improve, and he is already one of the best pitchers in baseball. Having a top 5 ERA in the NL in a down year at his age is pretty incredible.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

wow...how ridiculously overvalued Zambrano is. Sure he is a great pitcher and a bonefied Ace but there is no way he is even in the top 10 best pitchers in the game. Just amazing how Arod wouldn't be welcomed for Zambrano.

 

Pitching is a valuable comodity but not as valuable as one makes it out to be. No single pitcher is a sure thing as evidenced but the supposed "Ace" getting beat in most every single matchup this post season. How is a player who plays once every 5 days more valuable then a player that plays all 5 days? Logic be damned apparently.

 

The question boils down to if you would want a rotation of Hill, Marmol, Guzman, Prior & Mateo (or something similar) with Arod as your SS or would you rather have no Arod and take away Mateo and add Z. Which Transaction makes the bigger impact?

 

I think you're ridiculously overvaluing ARod and what he will offer to a team over the next 4-5 years as he declines vs what Zambrano would offer the same team over the same years as he improves.

[soccer10k]

wow...how ridiculously overvalued Zambrano is. Sure he is a great pitcher and a bonefied Ace but there is no way he is even in the top 10 best pitchers in the game. Just amazing how Arod wouldn't be welcomed for Zambrano.

 

Pitching is a valuable comodity but not as valuable as one makes it out to be. No single pitcher is a sure thing as evidenced but the supposed "Ace" getting beat in most every single matchup this post season. How is a player who plays once every 5 days more valuable then a player that plays all 5 days? Logic be damned apparently.

 

The question boils down to if you would want a rotation of Hill, Marmol, Guzman, Prior & Mateo (or something similar) with Arod as your SS or would you rather have no Arod and take away Mateo and add Z. Which Transaction makes the bigger impact?

 

You have to factor in the age of both players as well. ARod is 31 (and will turn 32 during next year) while Zambrano is 25. As muntjack said, Zambrano still has a lot of room to improve where as ARod likely isn't going to improve much anymore. He may stay the same but he likely won't show a significant improvement.

 

In your previous post you posed the question: Is ARod one of the top 5 positional players in the game? Well, there were 22 players that had a better OPS in 2006 than ARod did. There were 17 players that had more HR's than ARod did in 2006. Then factor in age. A .914 OPS for a player at 25 looks a whole lot better than a .914 OPS for a player at 31. Just off the top of my head, I'll take Pujols, Howard, Cabrera, Hafner, Wright over ARod any day of the week. I'm sure there are many others but those popped into my head.

[MPrior]

wow...how ridiculously overvalued Zambrano is. Sure he is a great pitcher and a bonefied Ace but there is no way he is even in the top 10 best pitchers in the game.

 

Ummmm...I disagree. Name 10 pitchers that are categorically better than Zambrano.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Actually, I would consider it.

 

Not for ARod, I really want ARod but I would rather do a Z for like...say...Miguel Cabrera or something.

 

I really want ARod on this team, and two seconds before I made this post I would have said yes. But Z is valued very highly in baseball (I'm actually not a big Z fan), and he can get a much younger, cheaper player.

 

You aren't going to get as good a player as ARod in his prime, but ARod is not getting any younger and thats what stops me.

[Faceman]

Clearly ARod is worth getting for anyone other than guys named Zambrano, DLee, and Aramis (because the offense lost wouldn't make up for the offense gained).

 

You wouldn't trade ARam for ARod? I can see Z and DLee, but you GOTTA deal Ramirez for ARod.

[goonys evil twin]

Clearly ARod is worth getting for anyone other than guys named Zambrano, DLee, and Aramis (because the offense lost wouldn't make up for the offense gained).

 

You wouldn't trade ARam for ARod? I can see Z and DLee, but you GOTTA deal Ramirez for ARod.

 

You can't deal ARam for ARod. If ARam resigns with the Cubs, he's going to be staying with the Cubs. He's not going to be part of a sign-and-trade.

[Faceman]

Clearly ARod is worth getting for anyone other than guys named Zambrano, DLee, and Aramis (because the offense lost wouldn't make up for the offense gained).

 

You wouldn't trade ARam for ARod? I can see Z and DLee, but you GOTTA deal Ramirez for ARod.

 

You can't deal ARam for ARod. If ARam resigns with the Cubs, he's going to be staying with the Cubs. He's not going to be part of a sign-and-trade.

 

True - I was thinking of the players and average annual salary, not necessarily length of deal remaining. .

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

If my scouts convinced me Arod could still play SS, I'd trade Lee for Arod. Finding a 1b to make up the production would be much easier than finding a SS to make up that kind of production.

[Andy]

Clearly ARod is worth getting for anyone other than guys named Zambrano, DLee, and Aramis (because the offense lost wouldn't make up for the offense gained).

 

You wouldn't trade ARam for ARod? I can see Z and DLee, but you GOTTA deal Ramirez for ARod.

ARam is 3 years younger than ARod and puts up comparable numbers. ARam's OPS this season was .912 and ARod's was .914. ARam hit 3 more homers this year. ARam drove in only two fewer runs than ARod did despite being on a spectalularly worse team.

 

ARod does get on base a little more (.421 and .392 the last two years compared to ARam's .358 and .352), but ARam is now entering (or has recently entered) his prime, while ARod is leaving his.

 

At best, the two are a wash. So if you make me pick I'll take the one that's already here and, by all acounts, wants to be here.

[baseball7897]

If my scouts convinced me Arod could still play SS, I'd trade Lee for Arod. Finding a 1b to make up the production would be much easier than finding a SS to make up that kind of production.

 

Not only is Lee solid with the bat, but he is probably the best defensive 1b in the game. Lee for A-Rod wont be a good idea.

[Guest]

I can't believe how undervalued ARod is right now.

[Andy]

I can't believe how undervalued ARod is right now.

I would love, love, love ARod on this team. I just don't see why the Cubs should have to give up a guy three years younger who is about as good to get him.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

If my scouts convinced me Arod could still play SS, I'd trade Lee for Arod. Finding a 1b to make up the production would be much easier than finding a SS to make up that kind of production.

 

Not only is Lee solid with the bat, but he is probably the best defensive 1b in the game. Lee for A-Rod wont be a good idea.

 

Lee is a great defensive 1b, but Arod's offensive value at short would outweigh Lee's value at first. Furthermore, Arod likely provides more offense than Lee and that would be from a position that offense is often scarce.

 

Also, if we traded Lee for Arod, the added salary would only be minimal. The Cubs could attempt to trade for someone else to play first. Potential targets could be Todd Helton or Adam Dunn.

 

I'm aware the Cubs won't trade Lee because of his popularity, and that view is extremely myopic. First of all, Arod has been and likely will be the more productive player. Lee really has only one great season surrounded by some good to very good seasons. Arod has been great for his entire career.

 

Projecting outward, Arod likely will be the better hitter and considering he can likely play SS, his value is much greater than that of Lee.

 

Finding a player who can even play SS at 75% of Arod's production would be very difficult. Finding a firstbaseman who could produce 75% of Lee's would likely be easy.

[Guest]

I can't believe how undervalued ARod is right now.

I would love, love, love ARod on this team. I just don't see why the Cubs should have to give up a guy three years younger who is about as good to get him.

ARod is significantly better than any player on the Cubs roster right now. Bar none.