Matsuzaka: Red Sox Win w/ $51.1M Bid

[sonicdethmonkey0]

So how is it that all these established star free agents you named have question marks, but a Japanese player with zero MLB experience doesn't?

 

Eveyone expects Matsuzaka to be good, me included, but it is not a given. IMO Zito and Schmidt are more predictable for production than Matsuzaka.

 

Matsuzaka has just as many question marks as anybody else, and see zero reason to bank the entire offseason on him.

 

I agree. He's hardly the only option, and he's clearly no more of a sure thing than others.

 

he may not be the only option, but in my opinion, he's clearly the best option. he's younger, he has more electric stuff than Zito or Schmidt, and thus more worth the money than either of those two. i just wonder what other FA options are out there for the Cubs to turn the team around. they weren't bad last year, they were god-awful. they need to make drastic changes. Hendry may have a big trade up his sleeve, but i don't see the Cubs improving dramatically through the FA market. i think a one-two punch of Z and Zaka is what this club needs, more so than Zito or Schmidt.

 

perhaps i misspoke when i disagreed with your original point TheDude by saying the entire off-season hinges on this signing. but i think in terms of the other FAs out there, the Cubs are really blowing it by not going all out to get this guy. like i said, i don't think they will, and i think they'll regret it bigtime.

 

EDIT: of course, if the red sox are going to put up 40-45 million just to negotiate with him... to me that seems reckless. i would hope the Cubs would be willing to bid 20-25 million.

Edited November 10, 2006 by sonicdethmonkey0

[goonys evil twin]

I want Theo as our GM. :evil:

 

Theo isn't the one putting up $45 million. That would be an ownership decision.

 

Right........you pick: Theo or JH?

 

I'm not sayin, I'm just sayin.

 

Theo has made a lot of reckless moves. He's probably better than Jim, but I'm not convinced he'd be all that great if you took $30 million away from him. Besides, you're talking about the bidding process for a posted player. The GM might choose whether or not to get him, but he's not deciding whether or not to spend that much.

[goonys evil twin]

So how is it that all these established star free agents you named have question marks, but a Japanese player with zero MLB experience doesn't?

 

Eveyone expects Matsuzaka to be good, me included, but it is not a given. IMO Zito and Schmidt are more predictable for production than Matsuzaka.

 

Matsuzaka has just as many question marks as anybody else, and see zero reason to bank the entire offseason on him.

 

I agree. He's hardly the only option, and he's clearly no more of a sure thing than others.

 

he may not be the only option, but in my opinion, he's clearly the best option. he's younger, he has more electric stuff than Zito or Schmidt, and thus more worth the money than either of those two. i just wonder what other FA options are out there for the Cubs to turn the team around. they weren't bad last year, they were god-awful. they need to make drastic changes. Hendry may have a big trade up his sleeve, but i don't see the Cubs improving dramatically through the FA market. i think a one-two punch of Z and Zaka is what this club needs, more so than Zito or Schmidt.

 

perhaps i misspoke when i disagreed with your original point TheDude by saying the entire off-season hinges on this signing. but i think in terms of the other FAs out there, the Cubs are really blowing it by not going all out to get this guy. like i said, i don't think they will, and i think they'll regret it bigtime.

 

If $45m is real, then the Cubs are not blowing it by not offering that.

 

If they paid that much up front, then this guy would be the only improvement they'd make, and the rest of the team would suck.

[Bruno7481]

So how is it that all these established star free agents you named have question marks, but a Japanese player with zero MLB experience doesn't?

 

Eveyone expects Matsuzaka to be good, me included, but it is not a given. IMO Zito and Schmidt are more predictable for production than Matsuzaka.

 

Matsuzaka has just as many question marks as anybody else, and see zero reason to bank the entire offseason on him.

 

I agree. He's hardly the only option, and he's clearly no more of a sure thing than others.

 

he may not be the only option, but in my opinion, he's clearly the best option. he's younger, he has more electric stuff than Zito or Schmidt, and thus more worth the money than either of those two. i just wonder what other FA options are out there for the Cubs to turn the team around. they weren't bad last year, they were god-awful. they need to make drastic changes. Hendry may have a big trade up his sleeve, but i don't see the Cubs improving dramatically through the FA market. i think a one-two punch of Z and Zaka is what this club needs, more so than Zito or Schmidt.

 

perhaps i misspoke when i disagreed with your original point TheDude by saying the entire off-season hinges on this signing. but i think in terms of the other FAs out there, the Cubs are really blowing it by not going all out to get this guy. like i said, i don't think they will, and i think they'll regret it bigtime.

 

Let him pitch a season over here before we proclaim him as the best pitching option. He may be lights out, but let's see it first.

 

4 years ago everyone was ready to put Kaz Matsui in the HOF before he even had an AB with the Mets. When i say everyone I am mostly including the media in that, but some on here were on the bandwagon as well.

[goonys evil twin]

4 years ago everyone was ready to put Kaz Matsui in the HOF before he even had an AB with the Mets. When i say everyone I am mostly including the media in that, but some on here were on the bandwagon as well.

 

Nobody was putting him in the HOF.

[sonicdethmonkey0]

So how is it that all these established star free agents you named have question marks, but a Japanese player with zero MLB experience doesn't?

 

Eveyone expects Matsuzaka to be good, me included, but it is not a given. IMO Zito and Schmidt are more predictable for production than Matsuzaka.

 

Matsuzaka has just as many question marks as anybody else, and see zero reason to bank the entire offseason on him.

 

I agree. He's hardly the only option, and he's clearly no more of a sure thing than others.

 

he may not be the only option, but in my opinion, he's clearly the best option. he's younger, he has more electric stuff than Zito or Schmidt, and thus more worth the money than either of those two. i just wonder what other FA options are out there for the Cubs to turn the team around. they weren't bad last year, they were god-awful. they need to make drastic changes. Hendry may have a big trade up his sleeve, but i don't see the Cubs improving dramatically through the FA market. i think a one-two punch of Z and Zaka is what this club needs, more so than Zito or Schmidt.

 

perhaps i misspoke when i disagreed with your original point TheDude by saying the entire off-season hinges on this signing. but i think in terms of the other FAs out there, the Cubs are really blowing it by not going all out to get this guy. like i said, i don't think they will, and i think they'll regret it bigtime.

 

If $45m is real, then the Cubs are not blowing it by not offering that.

 

If they paid that much up front, then this guy would be the only improvement they'd make, and the rest of the team would suck.

 

goony i think i edited my previous post at the same time you made this point, but yes, i agree. 40-45 million to negotiate is absurd, and i am almost certain the Cubs are not going to put up that kind of money, so it's a moot point.

[Bruno7481]

4 years ago everyone was ready to put Kaz Matsui in the HOF before he even had an AB with the Mets. When i say everyone I am mostly including the media in that, but some on here were on the bandwagon as well.

 

Nobody was putting him in the HOF.

 

OK, settle for multiple All-star appearences then? :wink:

[JWCUB]

Nothing confirmed yet. Buster says he BELIEVES the Red Sox MAY have won the bid. There is still hope.

[nilodnayr]

That's insane if true. Better get ready to sign Zito. By the way Gammons said an interesting stat on Zito last night. He hasn't missed a start since his junior year of high school, and he has never had a losing record. Maybe we should bring him in.

 

Thats great if you value a guy by using a stat he does not significantly control and the fact that he shows up.

 

I show up to work every day and do a decent job within my group which happens to be succesful because we have a lot of other guys that do a good job too...pay me 15M.

[goonys evil twin]

4 years ago everyone was ready to put Kaz Matsui in the HOF before he even had an AB with the Mets. When i say everyone I am mostly including the media in that, but some on here were on the bandwagon as well.

 

Nobody was putting him in the HOF.

 

OK, settle for multiple All-star appearences then? :wink:

 

I was expecting something much close (but not as good) as what he did in Colorado this year 122 OPS+, compared to what he has done overall 81 OPS+.

[ConstableRabbit]

So how is it that all these established star free agents you named have question marks, but a Japanese player with zero MLB experience doesn't?

 

Eveyone expects Matsuzaka to be good, me included, but it is not a given. IMO Zito and Schmidt are more predictable for production than Matsuzaka.

 

Matsuzaka has just as many question marks as anybody else, and see zero reason to bank the entire offseason on him.

 

I agree. He's hardly the only option, and he's clearly no more of a sure thing than others.

 

he may not be the only option, but in my opinion, he's clearly the best option. he's younger, he has more electric stuff than Zito or Schmidt, and thus more worth the money than either of those two. i just wonder what other FA options are out there for the Cubs to turn the team around. they weren't bad last year, they were god-awful. they need to make drastic changes. Hendry may have a big trade up his sleeve, but i don't see the Cubs improving dramatically through the FA market. i think a one-two punch of Z and Zaka is what this club needs, more so than Zito or Schmidt.

 

perhaps i misspoke when i disagreed with your original point TheDude by saying the entire off-season hinges on this signing. but i think in terms of the other FAs out there, the Cubs are really blowing it by not going all out to get this guy. like i said, i don't think they will, and i think they'll regret it bigtime.

 

Let him pitch a season over here before we proclaim him as the best pitching option. He may be lights out, but let's see it first.

 

4 years ago everyone was ready to put Kaz Matsui in the HOF before he even had an AB with the Mets. When i say everyone I am mostly including the media in that, but some on here were on the bandwagon as well.

 

I'm with you on that. It might be fun to take a chance with him, and he dominates in Japan, but he's unproven against the world's best hitters (save once in the WBC).

[ConstableRabbit]

So how is it that all these established star free agents you named have question marks, but a Japanese player with zero MLB experience doesn't?

 

Eveyone expects Matsuzaka to be good, me included, but it is not a given. IMO Zito and Schmidt are more predictable for production than Matsuzaka.

 

Matsuzaka has just as many question marks as anybody else, and see zero reason to bank the entire offseason on him.

 

I agree. He's hardly the only option, and he's clearly no more of a sure thing than others.

 

he may not be the only option, but in my opinion, he's clearly the best option. he's younger, he has more electric stuff than Zito or Schmidt, and thus more worth the money than either of those two. i just wonder what other FA options are out there for the Cubs to turn the team around. they weren't bad last year, they were god-awful. they need to make drastic changes. Hendry may have a big trade up his sleeve, but i don't see the Cubs improving dramatically through the FA market. i think a one-two punch of Z and Zaka is what this club needs, more so than Zito or Schmidt.

 

perhaps i misspoke when i disagreed with your original point TheDude by saying the entire off-season hinges on this signing. but i think in terms of the other FAs out there, the Cubs are really blowing it by not going all out to get this guy. like i said, i don't think they will, and i think they'll regret it bigtime.

 

Let him pitch a season over here before we proclaim him as the best pitching option. He may be lights out, but let's see it first.

 

4 years ago everyone was ready to put Kaz Matsui in the HOF before he even had an AB with the Mets. When i say everyone I am mostly including the media in that, but some on here were on the bandwagon as well.

 

I'm with you on that. It might be fun to take a chance with him, and he dominates in Japan, but he's unproven against the world's best hitters (save once against a pretty good lineup in the WBC).

[Careless]

4 years ago everyone was ready to put Kaz Matsui in the HOF before he even had an AB with the Mets. When i say everyone I am mostly including the media in that, but some on here were on the bandwagon as well.

 

Nobody was putting him in the HOF.

 

OK, settle for multiple All-star appearences then? :wink:

So taguchi has almost (sort of) made the all star team as a backup. Japanese players have gotten huge votes simply for being Japanese. Combine that with playing in NYC and I don't think he'd have to be all that good to have made AS games... (but that's a topic aside from actually evaluating how he would perform)

[AlwaysaCub]

I'd believe the Red Sox bid 45 million. I also believe that if the Red Sox did make that bid, they have no intention of paying one cent of that 45 million. If they don't reach an agreement, they don't have to pay it. So what is stopping a team, like the Red Sox, from blocking another team (the Yankees) from getting him by making a ridiculous bid that they won't follow up?

[CubbyBlueThruampThru]

If true, 38-45 million would be insane. I agree with what has been stated above, 20-25 is about what I would be willing to post. You just can't pay 20 million a year for a player who has no MLB experience. Edited November 10, 2006 by CubbyBlueThru&Thru

[snoodmonger]

If it is true that the bids were much lower than originally speculated, that could be a factor in causing the decision making process to be extended.

 

Why?

 

If they were expecting $20m when they decided to post him, but only got $13m (for example), then they might feel the need to debate whether it's worth it. They might be desperate enough for cash to accept, but they aren't going to jump at it immediately.

 

it could also be posturing for future postings. If they look like they won't take just any bid--that there's a real chance they'll reject it if it's not up to expectations-- teams might be inclined to up their bids should seibu post players in the fiture

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'd believe the Red Sox bid 45 million. I also believe that if the Red Sox did make that bid, they have no intention of paying one cent of that 45 million. If they don't reach an agreement, they don't have to pay it. So what is stopping a team, like the Red Sox, from blocking another team (the Yankees) from getting him by making a ridiculous bid that they won't follow up?

 

They may pay it if Matsuzaka agrees to a low-ball contract. Many people were predicting a 5/50 deal for Matsuzaka with a 20 million posting fee. In essence, 5/70 or 14 million a season for him.

 

The Red Sox may have bid 45 million, but only plan to offer him a 5/25 contract or a 5/30 contract. The total cost would roughly be the same. They may feel it's worth the risk.

[TheDude]

That's insane if true. Better get ready to sign Zito. By the way Gammons said an interesting stat on Zito last night. He hasn't missed a start since his junior year of high school, and he has never had a losing record. Maybe we should bring him in.

 

Thats great if you value a guy by using a stat he does not significantly control and the fact that he shows up.

 

I show up to work every day and do a decent job within my group which happens to be succesful because we have a lot of other guys that do a good job too...pay me 15M.

 

The guy did win a Cy Young, so he isn't just showing up. For a team desperate for reliable starters, targeting a guy who has never missed a start (and is generally regarded as an elite pitcher) is a good idea.

[TheDude]

I'd believe the Red Sox bid 45 million. I also believe that if the Red Sox did make that bid, they have no intention of paying one cent of that 45 million. If they don't reach an agreement, they don't have to pay it. So what is stopping a team, like the Red Sox, from blocking another team (the Yankees) from getting him by making a ridiculous bid that they won't follow up?

 

They may pay it if Matsuzaka agrees to a low-ball contract. Many people were predicting a 5/50 deal for Matsuzaka with a 20 million posting fee. In essence, 5/70 or 14 million a season for him.

 

The Red Sox may have bid 45 million, but only plan to offer him a 5/25 contract or a 5/30 contract. The total cost would roughly be the same. They may feel it's worth the risk.

 

I have heard a few times Boras is going to want 3 years max on the contract. So a $45 million posting fee is more difficult to justify when the agent's position and starting point is known to be 3 years.

[nilodnayr]

What if the BoSox bid absurdly high to ensure the Yanks did not win and will now trade Matsuzaka (while eating some of the posting fee) to a team in the NL. The ridiculously high $ makes me think thats pretty plausible and theres nothing in the rules against it. For a team like the Yanks, Matsuzaka is the one key piece that could push them over the edge. Plus the BoSox's new pitching coach said he really didn't know much about Matsuzaka in a recent interview, although he could have been playing coy.

[Laura]

ESPN's Buster Olney reporting that Red Sox MAY have top bid at 38-45 million. If true, Yikes.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2656687

 

Welcome to the forums! :)

 

The same link was posted a couple of pages ago and people are discussing it now.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'd believe the Red Sox bid 45 million. I also believe that if the Red Sox did make that bid, they have no intention of paying one cent of that 45 million. If they don't reach an agreement, they don't have to pay it. So what is stopping a team, like the Red Sox, from blocking another team (the Yankees) from getting him by making a ridiculous bid that they won't follow up?

 

They may pay it if Matsuzaka agrees to a low-ball contract. Many people were predicting a 5/50 deal for Matsuzaka with a 20 million posting fee. In essence, 5/70 or 14 million a season for him.

 

The Red Sox may have bid 45 million, but only plan to offer him a 5/25 contract or a 5/30 contract. The total cost would roughly be the same. They may feel it's worth the risk.

 

I have heard a few times Boras is going to want 3 years max on the contract. So a $45 million posting fee is more difficult to justify when the agent's position and starting point is known to be 3 years.

 

Remember, whoever wins the bidding has Matsuzaka's rights for 6 years, regardless of the contract he signs.

[TheDude]

Remember, whoever wins the bidding has Matsuzaka's rights for 6 years, regardless of the contract he signs.

 

So what is Boras's position then? Why does he think he can get Matsuzaka back on the market at age 29 for the real payday?

[treebird]

Remember, whoever wins the bidding has Matsuzaka's rights for 6 years, regardless of the contract he signs.

 

So what is Boras's position then? Why does he think he can get Matsuzaka back on the market at age 29 for the real payday?

 

Can you put a clause into a contract making someone a free agent early? Maybe Boras thinks he can get that.

[goonys evil twin]

I'd believe the Red Sox bid 45 million. I also believe that if the Red Sox did make that bid, they have no intention of paying one cent of that 45 million. If they don't reach an agreement, they don't have to pay it. So what is stopping a team, like the Red Sox, from blocking another team (the Yankees) from getting him by making a ridiculous bid that they won't follow up?

 

The risk of being blackballed by Japanese teams in future deals, the risk of having MLB come down hard of them for deceptive practices. The possibility of a lawsuit in response to them refusing to negotiate in good faith.