McCoy: Time to Trade Dunn

[nilodnayr]

I think, as Vance always :wink: says, that Dunn would be a huge addition to our "offense." He provides excellent OBP and excellent slugging. If he hits .260, you are looking at a monster season. He's only 26. There aren't many power hitters available this offseason, and far fewer available ones who are on teams that have [expletive] GMs, like the Reds.

 

Even Hendry should realize that rarely (go to hell, Tony Bautista) are 40hrs a bad thing.

 

If he hits .260 is like saying if Murton hits 50 HRs it will be a monster season. Dunn has only hit .260 once as a full-time player. Dunn for Jones - great. Dunn for Jones plus a pitching prospect - maybe. Dunn for Hill or Prior - no way.

 

No its not, Dunn has hit 260 in his career, Murton has not hit 17 HRs in a season, let alone 50. Don't be ridiculous.

[b_wiggy_66]

Keep Adam Dunn far away from here. His 2-time(in a row mind you) strike out record for a season. His avg. has gone down every year now and dropped to .234 last year.

 

While his average may have slipped, he still had a very respectable 365 OBP. The only Cubs who had a higher OBP than that were Theriot in his limited AB's and Lee and Barrett. Murton matched him in this area. His low BA does not affect his ability to get on base.

 

With that 365 OBP, he produced a 490 SLG, his lowest in three years. That SLG combined with his OBP gave him a 855 OPS. Only three Cubs were better, Theriot (who won't repeat these numbers over a full season), Ramirez, and Barrett. Looking at only BA as a metric for Dunn is asinine. He's still extremely productive. Furthermore, he's only 26, there is time for him to improve his game.

 

He also is a butcher in left field and even an easy fly out is an adventure with him.

His adventures in the field are overplayed.

 

Sure he hits a lot of homers but he strikes out a ton. I got on some Reds blogs to see what they were saying and it seems almost all of them want him to go. THey said he is not clutch and with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs for his career he is only batting .094 and only has 12 sac flys for his career. I saw enough of that this year we don't need a K machine like him, we need people who are going to make productive outs if their gonna get out at all.

 

 

 

The clutch argument against Dunn is a joke. With a man on third, with less than two outs, Dunn has a 355 OBP.

 

In close and late situations, he has a 389 OBP. With runners in scoring position with two outs, he has a 410 OBP. In a line-up where he could be sandwitched with two good hitters as he could in Chicago, Dunn would be a great asset.

 

With bases loaded, he batting 273, his OBP was a poor 214, but in those situations he slugs 636.

 

Dunn would be a huge upgrade for this team.

 

I think the argument can be made that in those type of situations, he is not driving the runs home. I would think that is one instance where his Batting average would matter. He is a run producer, those are situations where he needs to HIT, not walk. Sure the walk helps and the OBP is great, but it isn't bringing the run home.

 

Hitting .094 with a runner at third and less than two outs is atrocious, regardless of his OBP.

 

I'm for getting Dunn despite this, but I don't think he is worth what it will take.

 

I'd rather have him get on base, not make outs and allow for a better chance for an even BIGGER inning, rather than hitting sac flies. In out lineup he'd be hitting ahead of Ramirez and Barrett. I'd rather Ramirez come up with one out and a man on first and third than with two outs and none on with a run in. But hey, thats just me, I like to score lots of runs.

 

A run producer, which Dunn is, is supposed to drive in runs not take walks with runners in scoring position. Wanting someone to take a walk over a hit with RISP is crazy talk. I think that OBP is an important stat, but you put a little to much emphasis on it. Dunn is a middle of the order guy when there is a RISP situation it is his job to get that run home, period. He had 90 RBI this year and thats with 40 homers. Assuming some of those were more than solo shots which some were. That means more than half of his RBI were off of homers. He also lead MLB in errors by outfielders with 12, a fielding % of .960 is terrible for an outfielder. To put that in perspective that is the same amount of errors that Aramis had and he is an infielder. Keep Dunn out of the North Side.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Keep Adam Dunn far away from here. His 2-time(in a row mind you) strike out record for a season. His avg. has gone down every year now and dropped to .234 last year.

 

While his average may have slipped, he still had a very respectable 365 OBP. The only Cubs who had a higher OBP than that were Theriot in his limited AB's and Lee and Barrett. Murton matched him in this area. His low BA does not affect his ability to get on base.

 

With that 365 OBP, he produced a 490 SLG, his lowest in three years. That SLG combined with his OBP gave him a 855 OPS. Only three Cubs were better, Theriot (who won't repeat these numbers over a full season), Ramirez, and Barrett. Looking at only BA as a metric for Dunn is asinine. He's still extremely productive. Furthermore, he's only 26, there is time for him to improve his game.

 

He also is a butcher in left field and even an easy fly out is an adventure with him.

His adventures in the field are overplayed.

 

Sure he hits a lot of homers but he strikes out a ton. I got on some Reds blogs to see what they were saying and it seems almost all of them want him to go. THey said he is not clutch and with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs for his career he is only batting .094 and only has 12 sac flys for his career. I saw enough of that this year we don't need a K machine like him, we need people who are going to make productive outs if their gonna get out at all.

 

 

 

The clutch argument against Dunn is a joke. With a man on third, with less than two outs, Dunn has a 355 OBP.

 

In close and late situations, he has a 389 OBP. With runners in scoring position with two outs, he has a 410 OBP. In a line-up where he could be sandwitched with two good hitters as he could in Chicago, Dunn would be a great asset.

 

With bases loaded, he batting 273, his OBP was a poor 214, but in those situations he slugs 636.

 

Dunn would be a huge upgrade for this team.

 

I think the argument can be made that in those type of situations, he is not driving the runs home. I would think that is one instance where his Batting average would matter. He is a run producer, those are situations where he needs to HIT, not walk. Sure the walk helps and the OBP is great, but it isn't bringing the run home.

 

Hitting .094 with a runner at third and less than two outs is atrocious, regardless of his OBP.

 

I'm for getting Dunn despite this, but I don't think he is worth what it will take.

 

I'd rather have him get on base, not make outs and allow for a better chance for an even BIGGER inning, rather than hitting sac flies. In out lineup he'd be hitting ahead of Ramirez and Barrett. I'd rather Ramirez come up with one out and a man on first and third than with two outs and none on with a run in. But hey, thats just me, I like to score lots of runs.

 

A run producer, which Dunn is, is supposed to drive in runs not take walks with runners in scoring position. Wanting someone to take a walk over a hit with RISP is crazy talk. I think that OBP is an important stat, but you put a little to much emphasis on it. Dunn is a middle of the order guy when there is a RISP situation it is his job to get that run home, period. He had 90 RBI this year and thats with 40 homers. Assuming some of those were more than solo shots which some were. That means more than half of his RBI were off of homers. He also lead MLB in errors by outfielders with 12, a fielding % of .960 is terrible for an outfielder. To put that in perspective that is the same amount of errors that Aramis had and he is an infielder. Keep Dunn out of the North Side.

 

No. His job is to prevent outs. Dunn is what he is. His spot in the order, not withstanding. He is a selective hitter who prevents outs. When he gets on base, if the rest of the team continues to prevent outs, runs will score.

 

Dunn would be a wonderful improvement in the line-up as his ability to prevent outs would extend innings, giving the Cubs a chance to have more multiple run innings.

 

Please bring Dunn to the Northside!

[Guest]

I expect a couple huge years coming from Dunn. I wouldn't trade Hill or Prior for him though.

[Yestheydo]

Dunn would be a good fit for the Cubs-- big lefty bat, and the patience they've sorely lacked. Reds fans don't like him because he's supposed to be their big franchise hitter who carries the offense but he doesn't. I think they'll trade him because to them he's not worth what he'll be getting. To the Cubs, he'd be worth it, esp. since he's a better first half player and Lee and Ramirez usually aren't.

 

It would take a bit more than Jones, though. Aardsma for starters.

 

And I would happily trade Prior for Dunn, just as I would have happily traded him for Abreu or Tejada, both of which would have looked pretty good this year. Come on. Some guys just can't stay healthy; he's one of them.

[FergieJ31]

My 2 cents: no way would I trade Prior or Hill for Dunn straight up. Prior has 2007 comeback player of the year written all over him. Is there any doubt that his 2006 numbers were the result of pitching hurt?

 

And Hill showed all the signs of being a dependable #2 SP, with the ability to utterly dominate a game. I'd be pretty steamed if the Cubs gave him up for Dunn.

 

Don't get me wrong - I love Dunn's OBP and plate discipline ... just not willing to overpay for that. Now Pie + Guzman for Dunn ... that I would do, but I'm sure the Reds would lol.

[KingCubsFan]

My 2 cents: no way would I trade Prior or Hill for Dunn straight up. Prior has 2007 comeback player of the year written all over him. Is there any doubt that his 2006 numbers were the result of pitching hurt?

 

And Hill showed all the signs of being a dependable #2 SP, with the ability to utterly dominate a game. I'd be pretty steamed if the Cubs gave him up for Dunn.

 

Don't get me wrong - I love Dunn's OBP and plate discipline ... just not willing to overpay for that. Now Pie + Guzman for Dunn ... that I would do, but I'm sure the Reds would lol.

Yeah, players with an ERA over 7 and mysterious injuries seem a lock for Comeback Player of the Year

Trading Prior for Dunn would be a tough call, but at this point I'd probably do it. When Dunn hits his prime, he could be a consistent 50 HR, .400 OBP, 900+ OPS threat. And as hard as it is to find pitchers like Prior, it's also hard to find people who could put up those offensive numbers. And with the way Prior gives up homeruns, I don't think his numbers in Cin. would be that stellar.

[Drew Doughty]

Well...if we're trading with Cincy...why don't we offer them...2 mediocre relief pitchers and see if they want to give us Encarnacion too?

[Geech]

I actually wouldn't do Prior for Dunn. Dunn has had some good offensive years, but he's had to rely on old man skills to be productive. As Dunn continues to leave his physical prime, how well will he hold up?

 

If we could get him without giving up Prior I would be all for it, however.

[Outshined_One]

I actually wouldn't do Prior for Dunn. Dunn has had some good offensive years, but he's had to rely on old man skills to be productive. As Dunn continues to leave his physical prime, how well will he hold up?

 

He turns 27 in November. I'd understand that argument if he were much older, but he's just entering his prime.

[Geech]

He turns 27 in November. I'd understand that argument if he were much older, but he's just entering his prime.

 

No, he isn't. Most players peak at 27-30, but that's because baseball is a game of both physical skill and experience. Physically, players peak earlier than they typically do in their baseball careers. Dunn's leaving his physical prime now and I'm not sure he's shown the ability to make the sorts of adjustments he'll need to make to continue being successful.

 

Now, I'm no expert on these topics, and I certainly understand that I can be wrong. However, young players with old man skills tend to age poorly, and that describes Dunn to a T.

[soccer10k]

Keep Adam Dunn far away from here. His 2-time(in a row mind you) strike out record for a season.

 

[nitpicking]

 

Dunn set the strikeout record in 2004 with 195. He had 168 K's in 2005. This year he finished with 2006. As per baseball-reference

 

[/nitpicking]

[Soriano12]

lukewarm on Dunn.

 

We gotta find a way to pry Jason Bay outa Pitt.

 

 

:P :P

[UK1679666180]

FTR, Dunn has been as good as D. Lee with driving in runs w/RISP over their careers.

[Backtobanks]

I think, as Vance always :wink: says, that Dunn would be a huge addition to our "offense." He provides excellent OBP and excellent slugging. If he hits .260, you are looking at a monster season. He's only 26. There aren't many power hitters available this offseason, and far fewer available ones who are on teams that have [expletive] GMs, like the Reds.

 

Even Hendry should realize that rarely (go to hell, Tony Bautista) are 40hrs a bad thing.

 

If he hits .260 is like saying if Murton hits 50 HRs it will be a monster season. Dunn has only hit .260 once as a full-time player. Dunn for Jones - great. Dunn for Jones plus a pitching prospect - maybe. Dunn for Hill or Prior - no way.

 

No its not, Dunn has hit 260 in his career, Murton has not hit 17 HRs in a season, let alone 50. Don't be ridiculous.

 

He's hit .260 only once as a regular. I don't think Murton will ever hit 50 HRs, but I doubt Dunn will hit .260 again either. There were many posts about ARam not hustling, but at least he doesn't look like a giant Sequoia out in LF. Dunn is a total mope with a lousy BA and lousy defense who gives you 3 possibilities at the plate: HR, BB, or K. That being said I stand by my statement that if the Cubs can get him cheaply okay, but I wouldn't offer much. Actually, I think the whole discussion is moot since Cincy wouldn't trade him to a division rival anymore than the Cubs would trade someone like Prior to a division rival. Facing Dunn or Prior could come back to haunt their original teams for the next decade.

[CoolHandLuke]

I think, as Vance always :wink: says, that Dunn would be a huge addition to our "offense." He provides excellent OBP and excellent slugging. If he hits .260, you are looking at a monster season. He's only 26. There aren't many power hitters available this offseason, and far fewer available ones who are on teams that have [expletive] GMs, like the Reds.

 

Even Hendry should realize that rarely (go to hell, Tony Bautista) are 40hrs a bad thing.

 

If he hits .260 is like saying if Murton hits 50 HRs it will be a monster season. Dunn has only hit .260 once as a full-time player. Dunn for Jones - great. Dunn for Jones plus a pitching prospect - maybe. Dunn for Hill or Prior - no way.

 

No its not, Dunn has hit 260 in his career, Murton has not hit 17 HRs in a season, let alone 50. Don't be ridiculous.

 

He's hit .260 only once as a regular. I don't think Murton will ever hit 50 HRs, but I doubt Dunn will hit .260 again either. There were many posts about ARam not hustling, but at least he doesn't look like a giant Sequoia out in LF. Dunn is a total mope with a lousy BA and lousy defense who gives you 3 possibilities at the plate: HR, BB, or K. That being said I stand by my statement that if the Cubs can get him cheaply okay, but I wouldn't offer much. Actually, I think the whole discussion is moot since Cincy wouldn't trade him to a division rival anymore than the Cubs would trade someone like Prior to a division rival. Facing Dunn or Prior could come back to haunt their original teams for the next decade.

 

Statistically speaking, even a player who's true ability gives him a batting average of .230, has a fairly good chance of hitting .260 just due to random variablility.

[A New Era]

I will say this. We NEED to get atleast 1 huge bat. Soriano, Andrew Jones, Arod, whatever. Dunn is one of those bats.

 

However, I am not too inclined to replace Murton (a very productive underpaid youngster) straight up with Dunn (a hugely productive young guy who is being paid much more, but not overpaid). .

 

Someone said here Murton would be a butcher in RF. If we could move Murton to RF and get dunn in LF I would be all over this. Because I'd rather have Dunn and Murton than Dunn and Jones.

 

I just like Murton alot as a player. If we could get Dunn for Prior I'd do it because frankly I just don't trust prior to get healthy. Hill we need to keep because he looks like a keeper. If we played Dunn in LF that would free up Murton to be used in a trade to get us a really good starter or even another bat in the line-up.

[radarluv1]

i asked this earlier and dont remember any responses. how about dunn in RF? he's got a cannon. also plate discipline isnt a quality that deteriorates quickly with age iirc.

i'd be willing to trade pie and a whole bullpen to get him, i just dont want to lose murton. and if we can get rid of jones, even better.

 

edit: as for priors injury concerns, i agree with the sentiment from some other posters- that he didnt think this wasted season was worth getting Dustied through. i dont remember ever hearing a hard diagnosis on his shoulder. i expect a great '07 from prior, let it be on the northside.

[abuck1220]

i heard that strikeouts count for two outs next season. no thanks to dunn.

[A New Era]

i heard that strikeouts count for two outs next season. no thanks to dunn.

 

I heard walks are 3 balls too thanks to dunn. .

[shnsajax]

I only like Dunn in the right lineup used in the right spot. If you get him and plug him in the #2 spot ahead for Lee and Aram I would be more inclinded to listen.

 

My one concern is that I think Dunn is going to breakdown very quick and at a young age, or he would run straight into the brickwall in the 6th game of the season.

[SouthSideRyan]

I only like Dunn in the right lineup used in the right spot. If you get him and plug him in the #2 spot ahead for Lee and Aram I would be more inclinded to listen.

 

My one concern is that I think Dunn is going to breakdown very quick and at a young age, or he would run straight into the brickwall in the 6th game of the season.

 

At least he'd be hustling!!

[nilodnayr]

I think, as Vance always :wink: says, that Dunn would be a huge addition to our "offense." He provides excellent OBP and excellent slugging. If he hits .260, you are looking at a monster season. He's only 26. There aren't many power hitters available this offseason, and far fewer available ones who are on teams that have [expletive] GMs, like the Reds.

 

Even Hendry should realize that rarely (go to hell, Tony Bautista) are 40hrs a bad thing.

 

If he hits .260 is like saying if Murton hits 50 HRs it will be a monster season. Dunn has only hit .260 once as a full-time player. Dunn for Jones - great. Dunn for Jones plus a pitching prospect - maybe. Dunn for Hill or Prior - no way.

 

No its not, Dunn has hit 260 in his career, Murton has not hit 17 HRs in a season, let alone 50. Don't be ridiculous.

 

He's hit .260 only once as a regular. I don't think Murton will ever hit 50 HRs, but I doubt Dunn will hit .260 again either. There were many posts about ARam not hustling, but at least he doesn't look like a giant Sequoia out in LF. Dunn is a total mope with a lousy BA and lousy defense who gives you 3 possibilities at the plate: HR, BB, or K. That being said I stand by my statement that if the Cubs can get him cheaply okay, but I wouldn't offer much. Actually, I think the whole discussion is moot since Cincy wouldn't trade him to a division rival anymore than the Cubs would trade someone like Prior to a division rival. Facing Dunn or Prior could come back to haunt their original teams for the next decade.

 

I said hes hit 260 in his career, not over the course of his career.

[nilodnayr]

All of this Dunn isn't worth it/Murton is a God talk is all based off of 2 months worth of stats. Murton was insane in August and September and Dunn was horrible. Just wanted to point that out to everyone.

[NCCubFan]

Keep Adam Dunn far away from here. His 2-time(in a row mind you) strike out record for a season.

 

[nitpicking]

 

Dunn set the strikeout record in 2004 with 195. He had 168 K's in 2005. This year he finished with 2006. As per baseball-reference

 

[/nitpicking]

That's a LOT of strikeouts. :D