Biggest Off-season need: #2 Starter or Big bat?

[3finger]

The Cubs have given up the eighth most runs in the NL (which puts us right in the middle of the pack), tenth most in the ML. The Cubs are also DEAD LAST in runs scored in the ML by 31 runs (35 in just the NL). While both are a problem, we need a bat more than pitching.

 

Cubs highest NL-ranked batter at each position, by VORP (minimum 150 plate appearances):

 

C Barrett 2nd

1b Walker 13th

2b Neifi 17th

3b ARam 14th

ss Cedeno 14th

lf Murton 18th

cf Pierre 15th

rf Jones 4th

 

Lots of low hanging drek here. The good news: next year DLee should have a full season and Ramirez should improve after what has so far been off year. The Cubs also have a rare run-producing catcher, although age will soon become an issue for Barrett. Jacque Jones, a guy I have excoriated, is admittedly putting up decent numbers.

 

Everyone else should be replaced. I probably would also sell high on Jones. If I could only get one guy, I'd get a bat in left -- that's one of the cheapest places to find offense, and its one of the Cubs' worst spots.

[Neuby]

Sadly I think it will take signing another Top of the rotation guy and 2 big time bats and it's going to take Hendry getting creative working out a cheap one year deal for Wood to see where his health will slot him terms of starting or relief. Schmidt or Zito? Clee and Soranio? These signings would be helped out a lot if we started trading these guys who are not in the plans for next year.

 

Walker

Williamson

Blanco

Nevin

Perez

Rusch

Mabry

Jones

Pierre

Maddux

 

Walker is only on the list because I'm assuming he's gone. I don't mind if Jones stays and plays center and we can net some corner outfielders that can hit. If Hendry can sell now with the buyers having the advantage of having there midseason help a few weeks earlier he should be able to help out the big league club for next year. If Hendry can package a couple of these guys together to get top of the line talent back and get some major help in free agency it will be a miracle.

[Outshined_One]

I think this team at its core is mediocre, but not atrocious. With good coaching, this team could be an 85 win team (assuming health...which is problematic).

 

However, I think the pitching has a much better chance of being good than the offense. I think some one from the group of Marmol/Hill/Marshall/Guzman/Ryu will step up and be a dependable and effective starter next season. It could be possible that another one of them becomes average or so, but it's hard to play those odds. Prior could bounce back or only end up being useful for half a season. The bullpen is actually pretty good when used correctly.

 

Ergo, I'd opt for the big bat.

[Fro]

You need the big bats... doing the whole "four or five ace" thing is complete overkill. Give me 3 studs and 2 kids for a pitching staff with big bats in the lineup and a good bullpen anyday.

[soccer10k]

"Agreed. If given a gun-to-the-head decision though, I'd take a big bat."

 

You would take a bat considering that this rotation looks like a huge uncertainty next season. In my opinion hitting can come and a go but if your pitching is good enough you can get by with decent hitting. This team needs help at just about every facet of the organization (hitting, pitching, defense, coaching, scouting, front office people, etc) but I think it all starts with pitching or the lack thereof that the Cubs possess.

 

The Cubs have given up the eighth most runs in the NL (which puts us right in the middle of the pack), tenth most in the ML. The Cubs are also DEAD LAST in runs scored in the ML by 31 runs (35 in just the NL). While both are a problem, we need a bat more than pitching.

 

The pitching staff hasn't been horrible considering that 33 of the 86 starts have been made by players will little to no experience. Factor in the 8 combined by Prior and Wood and 8 more by Gopher Ball this isn't too bad. Marshall will have a full year under his belt next year. Marmol is getting starts as well and will be more experienced. Hopefully Guzman and Hill can get a few more starts so we can see if they can be relied upon next year as well. Prior has been looking better even though his record doesn't reflect this.

 

The offense on the other hand has been downright pathetic. That's all there really is to say about it.

 

 

The Cubs are 15th in the NL in ERA, lead the the league in walks allowed and HR allowed, our hitting is atrocious but you have to think that if all those numbers were a little better we would be in better shape. I think it's safe to say that we are both right the hitting is horrendous and the pitching isn't that good.

 

Agreed.

[CubsBullsBears]

I'd actually take two big bats over a top-notch starter and a big bat.

 

Someone mentioned Soriano and CLee.

 

That's not a bad start.

That would be me. :)

[cubsjunky95]

Both. No excuses.

 

I don't know if we're going to be able to afford both, the tribsters aren't magically just going to give Hendry all the $$$ he wants to go out and get top-notch free-agents. With the Cubs luck we'll be lucky if we get the big bat or the starter.

[KaiserCesar]

Both. No excuses.

 

I don't know if we're going to be able to afford both, the tribsters aren't magically just going to give Hendry all the $$$ he wants to go out and get top-notch free-agents. With the Cubs luck we'll be lucky if we get the big bat or the starter.

 

There's a lot of money coming off the books (Pierre, Maddux, Wood) and I think I remember Hendry being allowed to go up to ~105 million this year, but it came in quite a bit short of that. With the new revenue and money coming off the books, I think getting both is plausible.

[BigSlick]

I'd actually take two big bats over a top-notch starter and a big bat.

 

Someone mentioned Soriano and CLee.

 

That's not a bad start.

That would be me. :)

 

Where do they play? Jacques is tied up for another year, so unless we trade him, are we going to deal with the disaster that is Soriano at second base?

[Sammy Sofa]

I'd actually take two big bats over a top-notch starter and a big bat.

 

Someone mentioned Soriano and CLee.

 

That's not a bad start.

That would be me. :)

 

Where do they play? Jacques is tied up for another year, so unless we trade him, are we going to deal with the disaster that is Soriano at second base?

 

Lee would obviously play in LF and Soriano's stellar offense has been proven...if he can hit like he is in a cavern like RFK, his offensive output at Wrigley would far more than make up for any defensive lackngs he has.

[CubsBullsBears]

I'd actually take two big bats over a top-notch starter and a big bat.

 

Someone mentioned Soriano and CLee.

 

That's not a bad start.

That would be me. :)

 

Where do they play? Jacques is tied up for another year, so unless we trade him, are we going to deal with the disaster that is Soriano at second base?

The master plan: Trade away Jones while you can. OF of Murton in LF, Pie in CF, and Lee in RF (he can play RF, it's just that his corner mates in Chicago and Milwaukee [Ordonez, Favre's twin] have better arms)

[Mark Priors Calves]

I wouldn't be shocked to see a cut in payroll in '07. I'm not saying we'll see a 50 million dollar payroll but something in the 85 million dollar area. The Tribsters have forked over a lot of cash the last three years and have seen a terrible product on the field.

[CuseCubFan69]

My biggest Off Season needs:

 

New President

New GM

New Manager

High OBP guy to lead off

Power 30-40 270/350 HR guy in the corner OF or a Tejada/ARod type middle infielder

Starting pitcher if and only if the Cubs make the moves to do the above. If not I'll go with the young guys.

 

LF - Murton/Jones

CF - High OBP Dude maybe Freel

RF - Power 30/40 HR guy

3B - ARam

SS - Cedeno

2B - Walker

1B - Lee

C - Barrett

 

Order:

 

Freel/High OBP type CF

Walker 2B

Lee 1B

Abreu/Cabera type RF

Ramirez 3B

Barrett C

Jones/Murton LF Murton might hit second against some lefties

Cedeno SS

 

Bench: Fountain 2b/3b, Theriot, Blanco or Soto and Stairs type hitter/fielder maybe Pagan if they go to 11 pitchers.

 

Pitchers:

Z

Prior

Marshall

Schmidt/Willis/Zito type pitcher

Guzman/Hill/whoever steps up/Wood

 

Marmol Closer

Howrey

Eyre

Wuertz

Novoa

Ohman

2 Minor league relievers

 

I traded or released everyone else on the Major roster. Maddux, Williamson, Perez, Nevin, Dempster, Mabry and Pierre were traded for whatever Hendry could get and added/flipped for the power hitter and or high OBP guy. If Pie proves he can hit then adjusts will be made or he got sent in the Tejada deal along with other prospects like Cedeno. I think with some of the vets and some of the guys in the minors Hendry has the tools to make a very good 2007 team.

 

Again, the direction to win or go young is fine but this sticking in the middle with horrible fill ins like Perez is not the way to go at any time unless all you have is Neifi to play SS or 2B and he hits 8th. If the Cubs move Cedeno for Tejada and since Perez is already signed I don't have a problem with him hitting 8th and playing second as long as the other starting 7 are strong. I'd prefer Walker.

 

The bench helps keep this team inexpensive as do the added relievers.

 

If I go young:

 

Lofton or AAA type CF until Pie is ready

Murton LF

Trade Jones and get another fill in for RF

Ramirez 3b and if he opts out offer arb or deal him by 2006 deadline and put Fountain there

Cedeno SS

Theriot 2B

Lee 1B

Soto C Trade Barrett for the best available young talent

 

Pitchers:

 

Z (If he wants out because of the youth movement trade him but I'd like it if he stayed)

Prior (Same as above)

Marshall

Guzman

Hill or who ever steps up

 

Marmol Closer

Weurtz

Novoa

Any other young guys and trade Eyre and Howry now. I think with the trades the Cubs could get some very good prospects to fill in the blanks.

[NCCubFan]

I wouldn't be shocked to see a cut in payroll in '07. I'm not saying we'll see a 50 million dollar payroll but something in the 85 million dollar area. The Tribsters have forked over a lot of cash the last three years and have seen a terrible product on the field.

That doesn't call for a reduced payroll, though. That calls for a new management team that will make the right decisions with the current payroll level.

[JonnyRed]

C-Lee and Zito....book it! We'll have the money to spend with Wood and Maddux's salaries gone, plus I don't think Hendry spent all of this season's available budget given the poor FA market. Picture a muderers row of D-Lee, C-Lee and A-Ram and a starting rotation of Z, Z Prior and pick 2 (Marshall, Marmol, Guzman, Hill). We can get better in a hurry, just wait and see.

[Sammy Sofa]

I wouldn't be shocked to see a cut in payroll in '07. I'm not saying we'll see a 50 million dollar payroll but something in the 85 million dollar area. The Tribsters have forked over a lot of cash the last three years and have seen a terrible product on the field.

That doesn't call for a reduced payroll, though. That calls for a new management team that will make the right decisions with the current payroll level.

 

Tell that to the Royals, Pirates and Orioles.

[Sammy Sofa]

C-Lee and Zito....book it! We'll have the money to spend with Wood and Maddux's salaries gone, plus I don't think Hendry spent all of this season's available budget given the poor FA market. Picture a muderers row of D-Lee, C-Lee and A-Ram and a starting rotation of Z, Z Prior and pick 2 (Marshall, Marmol, Guzman, Hill). We can get better in a hurry, just wait and see.

 

Is that really a "Murderer's Row?" Two moves like that would be big steps in the right direction, but hardly all that would need to be done to make this team serious contenders.

[Guest]

Put me down for Schmidt + Soriano.

 

As others have said, Schmidt seems the better value over Zito. A better pitcher who will likely sign a shorter contract. If Prior were more reliable, I'd say go with Z, Prior & the young'ns. But I think we need to bring in an additional arm from the outside.

 

As for offense...

 

I'd sign Soriano and put him back at 2B.

 

I'd offer arby to Pierre, but wouldn't really try to re-sign him. I'm sure someone will offer him a multi-year deal, which will help the Cubs make up for the lack of picks after their signing of FA's.

 

If Walker ends up as a type A player at 2B, I'd offer arby but make it clear to him that if he accepts, he's going to be a bench player. If he ends up as a type B, I wouldn't risk it.

 

I'd then do what I could to trade for Abreu and move Jacque to CF. Abreu's not the player he once was, but his OBP combined with Soriano's power is exactly what the offense needs to move amongst the best in the NL.

 

I'd be left without a traditional leadoff hitter, but I'd have 5 bats I have a fair amount of confidence in with:

 

Abreu

Lee

Ramirez

Soriano

Barrett

 

I think that would be plenty to establish a decent offense right there, even if we stuck with Jones, Murton & Cedeno at the other positions.

 

If Soriano won't bite, then I'd go for Carlos Lee. But I think Murton/Soriano would outplay Lee/Walker.

[bhogg]

If they decide to keep Pierre and Jones, Pie will have to wait --- maybe even be traded. It just seems like it would be tough to support having such a light hitting outfield. I'd have to go with a FA signing (such as CLee) or maybe even use Pie in a blockbuster trade to bring in a big time OFer.

 

At this point, I sure wouldn't mind the Schmidt / Soriano signings. That would still leave a glaring hole in the outfield (unless Soriano was made to play LF).

[sporrer17]

Just by knowing the lack of real impact bats that are going to be available (save for Lee and Soriano), I'd probably opt for the big time pitcher option. I just think a quality arm is going to do more for this team (especially with Wood and Maddux likely out of the equation) than a big time bat would.

 

Zambrano, Zito/Schmidt, Prior, Marshall, Marmol/Hill/Guzman/etc is a solid rotation if Prior is healthy.

 

I don't see any upgrades (in the FA market anyways) offensively at any of these positions: C, 1b, 3b, RF, CF, SS. That leaves 2b and LF. While Walker is a solid hitter, Soriano would be a nice middle of the lineup guy at 2b. Murton has an okay average, good OBP, and okay speed, but his complete lack of pop has got to be a concern. While there is still plenty of time for this kid to be a good or even great hitter, we will need immediate production, and our best bet is to sign a veteran LF with some pop.

 

Personally, I see nothing wrong with the middle of our lineup the way it is now. I love a Lee-Ramirez-Jones-Barrett combo for the 3-6. Would it be nice to have a C-Lee in LF hitting 4th/5th? Sure. Can we live with that 3-6 and still be a good hitting team, of course. We need to get on base in front of those guys, and Lee needs to be healthy. If you have a 1-2 of Pierre and say...Adam Kennedy, we should be driving in plenty of runs with that 3-6.

 

This of course assumes that Ramirez ends up getting back to the .280-.290, 30-35 HR type hitter he is rather than the .260 hitter he's been this year. Jones and Barrett are great at 5 and 6 IMO, and only 2 hitters on the market would be a big upgrade to the middle of our order, those being Lee and Soriano. Murton makes a fine 7th hitter, especially if he gets his average back up and starts hitting a HR once in a while. Cedeno, while not a star offensively, gives this team a lot in speed and fielding, which should not be overlooked.

 

Sign a starter (Zito/Schmidt) and trade some young guys for a big bat in LF or at 2b. Those are our only options, IMO. Or go get Tejada and slide Ronny to 2b.

[CuseCubFan69]

Put me down for Schmidt + Soriano.

 

As others have said, Schmidt seems the better value over Zito. A better pitcher who will likely sign a shorter contract. If Prior were more reliable, I'd say go with Z, Prior & the young'ns. But I think we need to bring in an additional arm from the outside.

 

As for offense...

 

I'd sign Soriano and put him back at 2B.

 

I'd offer arby to Pierre, but wouldn't really try to re-sign him. I'm sure someone will offer him a multi-year deal, which will help the Cubs make up for the lack of picks after their signing of FA's.

 

If Walker ends up as a type A player at 2B, I'd offer arby but make it clear to him that if he accepts, he's going to be a bench player. If he ends up as a type B, I wouldn't risk it.

 

I'd then do what I could to trade for Abreu and move Jacque to CF. Abreu's not the player he once was, but his OBP combined with Soriano's power is exactly what the offense needs to move amongst the best in the NL.

 

I'd be left without a traditional leadoff hitter, but I'd have 5 bats I have a fair amount of confidence in with:

 

Abreu

Lee

Ramirez

Soriano

Barrett

 

I think that would be plenty to establish a decent offense right there, even if we stuck with Jones, Murton & Cedeno at the other positions.

 

If Soriano won't bite, then I'd go for Carlos Lee. But I think Murton/Soriano would outplay Lee/Walker.

 

IMO most managers would bat Soriano lead off. If you make the gamble would you move Cedeno to get a SS that could lead off to help avoid Soriano from leading off since Pierre would be gone?

[Guest]

Put me down for Schmidt + Soriano.

 

As others have said, Schmidt seems the better value over Zito. A better pitcher who will likely sign a shorter contract. If Prior were more reliable, I'd say go with Z, Prior & the young'ns. But I think we need to bring in an additional arm from the outside.

 

As for offense...

 

I'd sign Soriano and put him back at 2B.

 

I'd offer arby to Pierre, but wouldn't really try to re-sign him. I'm sure someone will offer him a multi-year deal, which will help the Cubs make up for the lack of picks after their signing of FA's.

 

If Walker ends up as a type A player at 2B, I'd offer arby but make it clear to him that if he accepts, he's going to be a bench player. If he ends up as a type B, I wouldn't risk it.

 

I'd then do what I could to trade for Abreu and move Jacque to CF. Abreu's not the player he once was, but his OBP combined with Soriano's power is exactly what the offense needs to move amongst the best in the NL.

 

I'd be left without a traditional leadoff hitter, but I'd have 5 bats I have a fair amount of confidence in with:

 

Abreu

Lee

Ramirez

Soriano

Barrett

 

I think that would be plenty to establish a decent offense right there, even if we stuck with Jones, Murton & Cedeno at the other positions.

 

If Soriano won't bite, then I'd go for Carlos Lee. But I think Murton/Soriano would outplay Lee/Walker.

 

IMO most managers would bat Soriano lead off. If you make the gamble would you move Cedeno to get a SS that could lead off to help avoid Soriano from leading off since Pierre would be gone?

If Jose Reyes became available, I'd be all over it. :D

[RynoRules]

If Hendry reels in Soriano, Abreu and Schmidt in one offseason, my faith will be largely restored.

[CuseCubFan69]

Put me down for Schmidt + Soriano.

 

As others have said, Schmidt seems the better value over Zito. A better pitcher who will likely sign a shorter contract. If Prior were more reliable, I'd say go with Z, Prior & the young'ns. But I think we need to bring in an additional arm from the outside.

 

As for offense...

 

I'd sign Soriano and put him back at 2B.

 

I'd offer arby to Pierre, but wouldn't really try to re-sign him. I'm sure someone will offer him a multi-year deal, which will help the Cubs make up for the lack of picks after their signing of FA's.

 

If Walker ends up as a type A player at 2B, I'd offer arby but make it clear to him that if he accepts, he's going to be a bench player. If he ends up as a type B, I wouldn't risk it.

 

I'd then do what I could to trade for Abreu and move Jacque to CF. Abreu's not the player he once was, but his OBP combined with Soriano's power is exactly what the offense needs to move amongst the best in the NL.

 

I'd be left without a traditional leadoff hitter, but I'd have 5 bats I have a fair amount of confidence in with:

 

Abreu

Lee

Ramirez

Soriano

Barrett

 

I think that would be plenty to establish a decent offense right there, even if we stuck with Jones, Murton & Cedeno at the other positions.

 

If Soriano won't bite, then I'd go for Carlos Lee. But I think Murton/Soriano would outplay Lee/Walker.

 

IMO most managers would bat Soriano lead off. If you make the gamble would you move Cedeno to get a SS that could lead off to help avoid Soriano from leading off since Pierre would be gone?

If Jose Reyes became available, I'd be all over it. :D

 

Well Tim let's get Wright too while we're at it! Do you think Reyes is available or is this wishful thinking? Also my friend...Reyes is about as much a Baker/Hendry guy as you could get, imagine how peeved Baker would be if he's fired and the Cubs than get Reyes?

[Guest]

Put me down for Schmidt + Soriano.

 

As others have said, Schmidt seems the better value over Zito. A better pitcher who will likely sign a shorter contract. If Prior were more reliable, I'd say go with Z, Prior & the young'ns. But I think we need to bring in an additional arm from the outside.

 

As for offense...

 

I'd sign Soriano and put him back at 2B.

 

I'd offer arby to Pierre, but wouldn't really try to re-sign him. I'm sure someone will offer him a multi-year deal, which will help the Cubs make up for the lack of picks after their signing of FA's.

 

If Walker ends up as a type A player at 2B, I'd offer arby but make it clear to him that if he accepts, he's going to be a bench player. If he ends up as a type B, I wouldn't risk it.

 

I'd then do what I could to trade for Abreu and move Jacque to CF. Abreu's not the player he once was, but his OBP combined with Soriano's power is exactly what the offense needs to move amongst the best in the NL.

 

I'd be left without a traditional leadoff hitter, but I'd have 5 bats I have a fair amount of confidence in with:

 

Abreu

Lee

Ramirez

Soriano

Barrett

 

I think that would be plenty to establish a decent offense right there, even if we stuck with Jones, Murton & Cedeno at the other positions.

 

If Soriano won't bite, then I'd go for Carlos Lee. But I think Murton/Soriano would outplay Lee/Walker.

 

IMO most managers would bat Soriano lead off. If you make the gamble would you move Cedeno to get a SS that could lead off to help avoid Soriano from leading off since Pierre would be gone?

If Jose Reyes became available, I'd be all over it. :D

 

Well Tim let's get Wright too while we're at it! Do you think Reyes is available or is this wishful thinking? Also my friend...Reyes is about as much a Baker/Hendry guy as you could get, imagine how peeved Baker would be if he's fired and the Cubs than get Reyes?

Not even wishful thinking as much as smart-aleck response, Cuse.