Lee or Dunn?

[srbin84]

No one thinks that a single is better than a walk. But when looking at two players, if one gets on base significantly more than the other, it doesnt matter if that obp is registered via walk or bat on ball, what matters is that he makes fewer outs.

 

Obviously. Goony just said batting average means nothing. I think it is a good measure of how often a player gets on base by the hit, which we agree is better rather than just how much he gets on base. Obviously OBP wins over batting average; I just think BA is a useful stat for the reason I said.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think it is a good measure of how often a player gets on base by the hit, which we agree is better rather than just how much he gets on base. Obviously OBP wins over batting average;

 

Uh...

[BigbadB]

Goony just said batting average means nothing. I think it is a good measure of how often a player gets on base by the hit, which we agree is better rather than just how much he gets on base. Obviously OBP wins over batting average; I just think BA is a useful stat for the reason I said.

 

Batting average does mean nothing if that is all you are measuring.

 

Sean Casey or Adam Dunn?

 

Casey has a very respectable career AVG. Dunn does not.

 

Who would you rather have?

 

I'll take Dunn.

[Banedon]

I think it is a good measure of how often a player gets on base by the hit, which we agree is better rather than just how much he gets on base. Obviously OBP wins over batting average;

 

Wow...um...you just completely contradicted yourself....

 

I think it is a good measure of how often a player gets on base by the hit

 

Ok, that's called average...

 

which we agree is better rather than just how much he gets on base.

 

And that's called OBP, and I don't think we agree on that. Hits are better than walks, but hits+walks > hits.

 

So what you're essentially saying above is Average > OBP but then you say...

 

Obviously OBP wins over batting average

 

Uhhhhhh

[RockTheIvy]

Yawn.

[chopsx9]

Goony just said batting average means nothing. I think it is a good measure of how often a player gets on base by the hit, which we agree is better rather than just how much he gets on base. Obviously OBP wins over batting average; I just think BA is a useful stat for the reason I said.

 

Batting average does mean nothing if that is all you are measuring.

 

Sean Casey or Adam Dunn?

 

Casey has a very respectable career AVG. Dunn does not.

 

Who would you rather have?

 

I'll take Dunn.

 

But are you taking Dunn because of his high OBP or because he has a high OBP complemented by High SLG? It is not JUST his OBP. IF Dunn had the same OBP and hit 10 hrs a year I doubt he has a job (assuming a similar avg) (Plus he would likely walk a lot less).

 

Dunn is a very valuable player - but it is based on precisely 2 talents - taking a walk and hitting HR's and that's fine but he is mediocre at best at everything else. He's a horrible fielder and it is starting to look like he's a terrible hitter (aside from the HR's).

 

I'd take him over C. Lee, not by as wide a margin as some here; he's just such a bad fielder and, I know it's old school, but I think a big leaguer still needs to be able to hit at least .260. Again he obviously makes up for a lot that with the walks and the HRs but that does not mean his .220 avg is not an issue. Saying avg means "nothing" is silly. Two players have the same OPS- I'll take the one with the higher avg every day of the week.

[A New Era]

Goony just said batting average means nothing. I think it is a good measure of how often a player gets on base by the hit, which we agree is better rather than just how much he gets on base. Obviously OBP wins over batting average; I just think BA is a useful stat for the reason I said.

 

Batting average does mean nothing if that is all you are measuring.

 

Sean Casey or Adam Dunn?

 

Casey has a very respectable career AVG. Dunn does not.

 

Who would you rather have?

 

I'll take Dunn.

 

But are you taking Dunn because of his high OBP or because he has a high OBP complemented by High SLG? It is not JUST his OBP. IF Dunn had the same OBP and hit 10 hrs a year I doubt he has a job (assuming a similar avg) (Plus he would likely walk a lot less).

 

Dunn is a very valuable player - but it is based on precisely 2 talents - taking a walk and hitting HR's and that's fine but he is mediocre at best at everything else. He's a horrible fielder and it is starting to look like he's a terrible hitter (aside from the HR's).

 

I'd take him over C. Lee, not by as wide a margin as some here; he's just such a bad fielder and, I know it's old school, but I think a big leaguer still needs to be able to hit at least .260. Again he obviously makes up for a lot that with the walks and the HRs but that does not mean his .220 avg is not an issue. Saying avg means "nothing" is silly. Two players have the same OPS- I'll take the one with the higher avg every day of the week.

 

Yeah but Dunn is so good, he can walk with only 3 balls.

 

I'd take dunn too. I just think it's more likely Carlos would be here next year over dunn. Just seems to "fit".

[NCCubFan]

A single is better than a walk.

I agree in some situations, but not all. A single is better if it advances a runner more than one base or if it advances a runner that would stay put if it were a walk. Otherwise (for example, if there's nobody on base) a single or walk are of equal value.

[CUBZ99]

No one thinks that a single is better than a walk. But when looking at two players, if one gets on base significantly more than the other, it doesnt matter if that obp is registered via walk or bat on ball, what matters is that he makes fewer outs.

 

A single is better than a walk in most situations. A walk has zero shot of driving in a run unless the bases are loaded. Also, a single can move a runner from 1st to third while a walk cannot. I would agree with you that for your lead off hitter OBP should be the most important stat and that a walk is just as effective as a single, but other than that to say a walk = single is misinformed , especially for a middle of the lineup player.

 

When the Cubs played the Reds, the Reds announcers were commenting and bemoaning Dunn's inability to put the bat on the ball in crucial situations. They also stated that he is either looking for a HR or will happily accept a walk. He is considered an all or nothing player by the people who watch him day in and day out.

[abuck1220]

dunn doesn't hit sac flies.

 

 

seriously though, i'd be fine w/ lee just like i'd be fine w/ soriano. i'm aware that neither post a very good OBP, but i've come to grips w/ the fact that the cubs don't care about walks. since they're not going to get a high-OBP guy, i'm just hoping for a good SLG...as opposed to a guy w/ bad OBP and SLG (i'm looking at you, juan pierre).

[rocket]

The players it will cost to get Dunn makes Lee the easy choice. Dunn is hitting .226. Seriously come back to me when he can at least get it over the .250 line and at least look like he's seen a guy play left field before.

 

What does average matter? Nothing.

 

It does matter a little bit. A single is better than a walk.

 

And both are better than an out. Dunn makes significantly fewer outs while hitting for the same power. He's better.

 

That's what I said a few posts ago. Saying average doesn't matter at all though is foolish. A single is better than a walk.

 

Average matters very little compared to OBP and SLG. Using it as a means to try to rip Dunn, which is what Neuby was doing, is foolish.

 

That's fine, but goony is wrong for saying it has no value. Don't even try to tell me a walk is just as good as a single.

 

Foolish or not I don't want a guy who's production is soley based on the long ball. Dunn doesn't hit 4 any kind of average , strike outs a ton, no speed, and can't play anywhere but first base badly at that . Is that enough to rip Dunn? There's no way he's worth 3 of are top prospects as comapared to Lee.

 

His production isn't solely based on the long ball.

 

And just because once or twice you've seen Adam Dunn misjudge a flyball doesn't mean he's an absolute butcher out there. And Dunn, even though it really matters very little, has good speed...amazing speed if you consider his size.

[SouthSideRyan]

The players it will cost to get Dunn makes Lee the easy choice. Dunn is hitting .226. Seriously come back to me when he can at least get it over the .250 line and at least look like he's seen a guy play left field before.

 

What does average matter? Nothing.

 

It does matter a little bit. A single is better than a walk.

 

And both are better than an out. Dunn makes significantly fewer outs while hitting for the same power. He's better.

 

That's what I said a few posts ago. Saying average doesn't matter at all though is foolish. A single is better than a walk.

 

Average matters very little compared to OBP and SLG. Using it as a means to try to rip Dunn, which is what Neuby was doing, is foolish.

 

That's fine, but goony is wrong for saying it has no value. Don't even try to tell me a walk is just as good as a single.

 

Foolish or not I don't want a guy who's production is soley based on the long ball. Dunn doesn't hit 4 any kind of average , strike outs a ton, no speed, and can't play anywhere but first base badly at that . Is that enough to rip Dunn? There's no way he's worth 3 of are top prospects as comapared to Lee.

 

His production isn't solely based on the long ball.

 

And just because once or twice you've seen Adam Dunn misjudge a flyball doesn't mean he's an absolute butcher out there. And Dunn, even though it really matters very little, has good speed...amazing speed if you consider his size.

 

I thought Dunn performed poorly in fielding metrics as well(which admittedly I have little respect for)

[rocket]

 

I thought Dunn performed poorly in fielding metrics as well(which admittedly I have little respect for)

 

I have no idea. There is a chance he's below average, but it is left field, and if he is, it's not a major concern, and if was (hypothetically) the thing that prevented Hendry from getting Dunn, I'd be pissed.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

I thought Dunn performed poorly in fielding metrics as well(which admittedly I have little respect for)

 

I have no idea. There is a chance he's below average, but it is left field, and if he is, it's not a major concern, and if was (hypothetically) the thing that prevented Hendry from getting Dunn, I'd be pissed.

 

Agreed, though I think the time to get Dunn was when O' Brien was in Cincy, as Krivsky seems to be mildly intelligent. O' Brien seemed the type to see a 220 something BA and look to deal quickly.

[jwhatti]

What about taking into account how well C. Lee plays at Wrigley (or at least seems to in my feeble mind) Every game I watch with him at Wrigley he seems to do pretty darn well. Granted, it is a much smaller sample size than it would be if he was a Cub.

 

From Wednesday's Sun-Times..." Lee has a career .310 average (36-for-116) at Wrigley Field with 12 home runs -- his most at any opponent's ballpark"

[Geech]

Dunn at Wrigley:

 

AVG/OBP/SLG

.323/.444/.714

[srbin84]

I think it is a good measure of how often a player gets on base by the hit, which we agree is better rather than just how much he gets on base. Obviously OBP wins over batting average;

 

Wow...um...you just completely contradicted yourself....

 

I think it is a good measure of how often a player gets on base by the hit

 

Ok, that's called average...

 

which we agree is better rather than just how much he gets on base.

 

And that's called OBP, and I don't think we agree on that. Hits are better than walks, but hits+walks > hits.

 

So what you're essentially saying above is Average > OBP but then you say...

 

Obviously OBP wins over batting average

 

Uhhhhhh

 

I know you guys were just itching to hear me say that BA is better than OBP and that is just moronic. I didn't contricdict myself. This was about goony's statement that BA means nothing. All I was saying is I want to know the proportion of OBP that is BA because we all agree that a single is better than a walk. That being said, just looking at OBP, the point is that between two hitters who have a .400 OBP, the guy with a .350 BA is better than the guy with a .250 BA. That's why average doesn't mean nothing. It's an easy way to determine just how someone is getting on base. That's why I think goony was wrong to say it means nothing. Agreed or Disagreed?

[Tracer Bullet]

I know you guys were just itching to hear me say that BA is better than OBP and that is just moronic. I didn't contricdict myself. This was about goony's statement that BA means nothing. All I was saying is I want to know the proportion of OBP that is BA because we all agree that a single is better than a walk. That being said, just looking at OBP, the point is that between two hitters who have a .400 OBP, the guy with a .350 BA is better than the guy with a .250 BA. That's why average doesn't mean nothing. It's an easy way to determine just how someone is getting on base. That's why I think goony was wrong to say it means nothing. Agreed or Disagreed?

 

Frankly, I'm not sure I agree w/ that (.350 AVG w/ .400 OBP > .250 AVG w/ .400 OBP; assuming same SLG, etc). It's more valuable while it's occuring, but I think it's more likely that a guy who is hitting .250 will be able to sustain that .400 OBP for a number of years. It's a rare hitter that consistently hits .350. More likely they're having a great year, but will fall back to the .280-.320 AVG range, and thus their OBP will drop to .350-.360.

 

Obviously there's a lot about these hypothetical hitters that aren't part of your hypo, but I'm just saying it's not a given that the .350/.400 guy is better than the .250/.400.

 

My basic point: I like to see guys w/ a significant difference b/t OBP and AVG - otherwise their OBP is so tied to getting hits, which are more influenced by luck than walks, that it's unlikely they'll consistently put up that .400 OBP.

[soapy]

What about taking into account how well C. Lee plays at Wrigley (or at least seems to in my feeble mind) Every game I watch with him at Wrigley he seems to do pretty darn well. Granted, it is a much smaller sample size than it would be if he was a Cub.

 

From Wednesday's Sun-Times..." Lee has a career .310 average (36-for-116) at Wrigley Field with 12 home runs -- his most at any opponent's ballpark"

 

Two words: Jeff Blauser

[Backtobanks]

What about taking into account how well C. Lee plays at Wrigley (or at least seems to in my feeble mind) Every game I watch with him at Wrigley he seems to do pretty darn well. Granted, it is a much smaller sample size than it would be if he was a Cub.

 

From Wednesday's Sun-Times..." Lee has a career .310 average (36-for-116) at Wrigley Field with 12 home runs -- his most at any opponent's ballpark"

 

Two words: Jeff Blauser

 

Comparing Jeff Blauser to Carlos Lee is ridiculous. If you're worried about his Wrigley Field numbers, then don't trade for Dunn either since he hits a ton at Wrigley.

[Backtobanks]

Goony just said batting average means nothing. I think it is a good measure of how often a player gets on base by the hit, which we agree is better rather than just how much he gets on base. Obviously OBP wins over batting average; I just think BA is a useful stat for the reason I said.

 

Batting average does mean nothing if that is all you are measuring.

 

Sean Casey or Adam Dunn?

 

Casey has a very respectable career AVG. Dunn does not.

 

Who would you rather have?

 

I'll take Dunn.

 

Nobody is using only batting average to compare CLee and Dunn, but it is part of the statistics that are used to compare hitters. CLee has good numbers in the power areas and batting average. Dunn has more power and the ability to draw walks, but a lousy batting average. We have not discussed the availability and cost of either player, but obviously CLee is more available. Either player would be a very welcome addition to the Cubs lineup for next year. Only Cub fans could look at this pitiful lineup and find arguements against the likes of Carl Crawford, Abreu, Dunn, Tejada, or CLee. About the only thing everybody agrees on is Cabrera would be our first choice.

[soapy]

What about taking into account how well C. Lee plays at Wrigley (or at least seems to in my feeble mind) Every game I watch with him at Wrigley he seems to do pretty darn well. Granted, it is a much smaller sample size than it would be if he was a Cub.

 

From Wednesday's Sun-Times..." Lee has a career .310 average (36-for-116) at Wrigley Field with 12 home runs -- his most at any opponent's ballpark"

 

Two words: Jeff Blauser

 

Comparing Jeff Blauser to Carlos Lee is ridiculous. If you're worried about his Wrigley Field numbers, then don't trade for Dunn either since he hits a ton at Wrigley.

I'm not "worried" about Wrigley numbers. I was responding to jwhatti's statement that we should take into account Lee's numbers at Wrigley. I don't really think that's a factor. It's 116 ABs. People were clamouring about Blauser because he always played well at Wrigley. In all likelyhood, it has more to do with the pitchers he is facing rather then the park.

[CuseCubFan69]

I would take Dunn if both were free agents but Lee would just cost a draft pick while I'm not sure what Dunn would cost the Cubs in prospects. If the prospects traded didn't hurt the Cubs too much I'd say Dunn but if you're talking the top 3 or 4 I'm not so sure. One nice thing, it's possible the Reds would have to sell low with Dunn since his "Traditional" numbers are down. The Reds could have gotten anything they wanted for Dunn if they traded him in the winter.

 

That being said I'm not that keen on Lee unless Hendry can load up on other postions as well like getting an very good OBP CF.

[goonys evil twin]

Nobody is using only batting average to compare CLee and Dunn, but it is part of the statistics that are used to compare hitters.

 

Only by people who don't know how to compare hitters.

[BigbadB]

Only Cub fans could look at this pitiful lineup and find arguements against the likes of Carl Crawford, Abreu, Dunn, Tejada, or CLee. About the only thing everybody agrees on is Cabrera would be our first choice.

 

I'm not attempting to make an argument against CLee. But, I don't like him if you are curious. That dirty play on Walker last year was uncalled for.

 

I'd like to see a line up that featured .350+ OBP potential at every position. Not just potential, but rather likely.

 

Instead of ignoring OBP completely like the front office has done for years now, I don't want a little emphasis on OBP. I want a lot. A lot is what it is going to take to turn this offense around.