tyler colvin

[Jon]

His OPB and lack of walks are troubling.

.420 OBP is troubling?

.350 and .327 the previous two years.

 

So is the order, in chronological, .327, .350, .420? If that's the case, he's improving quite a bit each year.

.350 was the first year in roughly half of the ABs of 2005. His OPS did go up from 2004 to 2005, but barely. And a .776 OPS isn't exactly that great.

 

They're putting an awful lot into his 2006 numbers (or more likely his frame and tools).

Edited June 6, 2006 by Jon

[cubweiser03]

His OPB and lack of walks are troubling.

.420 OBP is troubling?

.350 and .327 the previous two years.

 

So is the order, in chronological, .327, .350, .420? If that's the case, he's improving quite a bit each year.

 

yeah pretty good. where are people getting this years stats?

[MikeG]

They have them here: http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2005-2006/lgsumm.html

 

His stats are under Individual Batting.

[JGalt73]

From ESPN chat:

 

Kevin (Manassas): What are your thoughts on the Cubs first round pick Tyler Colvin?

 

Keith Law: (3:21 PM ET ) Has to be signability, don't you think? He was a third or fourth round talent. I'm surprised that the Cubs went "cheap," especially since they went over slot last year with Utah HS pitcher Mark Pawelek. Perhaps they didn't feel anyone on the board was worth slot at #13.

[texascub]

Well sethuel, your guy just went to the Padres at #123.

 

I think the Holdzkom that was just drafted might be Lincoln's brother as well.

 

EDIT: Wrong thread, sorry.

Edited June 6, 2006 by texascub

[Brendan]

does anyone know what the break down by round of draftees making it to the majors is? (i.e., how many first rounders make it vs. 2nd rounders, etc.)

[wvcbxl]

Wow.

 

That was a pick out of the blue.

Wilken should deserve the benefit of the doubt, but this sure is testing things out of the starting blocks.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Did anyone seriously expect the Cubs to do anything but dissapoint?

 

I mean the guy is toolsy enough to be a potential steal, but right now this is a stunning overdraft.

 

And wow the names on the board...why not go after Drabek?

[nilodnayr]

His OPB and lack of walks are troubling.

.420 OBP is troubling?

 

I think someone's looking at his slugging.

no, that's .622

 

420 OBP is all well and good, but when its driven by average and not patience, especially considering his previous year's BAs, its not sustainable. See Pierre, J.

[KingCubsFan]

John Manuel seems to like him...

I like Colvin a lot better than the other college OFs in the draft, guys like Jon Jay and Shane Robinson...For a traditional scout like Tim Wilken, I can understand why he'd take Colvin over Snider; Colvin is a more well-rounded player, and if his bat plays, he'll be very good.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/chat.php?id=2006060601&rnd=4#bottom

[Mephistopheles]

Terrible...absolutely terrible.

[soccer10k]

His OPB and lack of walks are troubling.

 

That was the first thing I noticed. Only 3 more walks in 2005 in almost twice the at bats.

[NorthsideAvenger]

His OPB and lack of walks are troubling.

 

That was the first thing I noticed. Only 3 more walks in 2005 in almost twice the at bats.

 

Maybe Colvin might become a better PRO, then he was a college player. I think, Colvin could very well be a very good---not a superstar---player for the Cubs inside of 2 1/2 yrs. I think he is going to progress that fast.

[soccer10k]

His OPB and lack of walks are troubling.

 

That was the first thing I noticed. Only 3 more walks in 2005 in almost twice the at bats.

 

Maybe Colvin might become a better PRO, then he was a college player. I think, Colvin could very well be a very good---not a superstar---player for the Cubs inside of 2 1/2 yrs. I think he is going to progress that fast.

 

I hope you're right.

[sporrer17]

I honestly think this kid is one of those late bloomers. Even this season was very mediocre until he hit this hot stretch he's in. His overall #s don't look awful, but aren't anything to write home about either. I like the fact that he has a "sweet swing" and is fairly athletic. Uh oh...David Kelton part II?? Not likely...3 years a major baseball program in a big time conference is going to be a big bonus for his career. He has come a long way since HS.

 

Ya know what...I think I finally figured out who he reminds me of a little bit. He kinda makes me think of Mark Kotsay...not the greatest speed (Kotsay's career high in SB is 19)...not the greatest power (never hit over 17 HR)...and a solid hitter (career .285). Good defense, and an overall solid package of tools.

 

Hopefully once this kid starts putting on some more muscle mass, he can develop a 20-25 HR swing, and stick in CF. If he can do that, he may end up being a great pick.

[Outshined_One]

From ESPN chat:

 

Kevin (Manassas): What are your thoughts on the Cubs first round pick Tyler Colvin?

 

Keith Law: (3:21 PM ET ) Has to be signability, don't you think? He was a third or fourth round talent. I'm surprised that the Cubs went "cheap," especially since they went over slot last year with Utah HS pitcher Mark Pawelek. Perhaps they didn't feel anyone on the board was worth slot at #13.

 

Ironically, Pawelek signed for a really reasonable price, which was announced about two rounds after he was drafted. He's a Boras client, to boot.

 

The Kotsay comp might not be a bad one. His K/BB is something that merits watching, though.

[CubinNY]

I've had a night to sleep on this and although I am not real pleased with the Colvin decision, he has pretty much improved every year in college. Maybe the Cubs have a drafted a kid who is getting better all the time.

 

I mean if you look at the NFL and NBA there are always those kids who had good college careers but really blossomed in the pros. I'm thinking of a Dwyane Wade in Basketball or John Offerdahl* in football. Most of these "unknowns" weren't drafted in the first round though. But Colvin probably wouldn't have been either if the Cubs had more picks.

 

I am hoping that is the case with Colvin. I hope Wilken is correct with this kid.

 

* John Offerdahl was LB from Western Michigan drafted in the 4th round by the Dolphins. He went to 5 pro-bowls and played for 8 years. In college he was a four year starter but really only got noticed his senior year and then only because in the Senior Bowl he blasted Bo Jackson at the goal line.

[RynoRules]

There are always guys who make so much contact that it masks their lack of plate discipline and walks. The guys who do that and become stars are rare, though. Vlad the Impaler is one. I can't think of too many others, though I am sure there are a few currents and several former.

[1908]

There are always guys who make so much contact that it masks their lack of plate discipline and walks. The guys who do that and become stars are rare, though. Vlad the Impaler is one. I can't think of too many others, though I am sure there are a few currents and several former.

Ichiro, Nomar off the top of my head.

 

College statistics have very limited predictive value as well.

[imb]

His OPB and lack of walks are troubling.

 

That was the first thing I noticed. Only 3 more walks in 2005 in almost twice the at bats.

 

Maybe Colvin might become a better PRO, then he was a college player. I think, Colvin could very well be a very good---not a superstar---player for the Cubs inside of 2 1/2 yrs. I think he is going to progress that fast.

 

Really? What about him makes you think that? Just curious where you're getting your inside info on his career.

[goonys evil twin]

His OPB and lack of walks are troubling.

 

That was the first thing I noticed. Only 3 more walks in 2005 in almost twice the at bats.

 

Maybe Colvin might become a better PRO, then he was a college player. I think, Colvin could very well be a very good---not a superstar---player for the Cubs inside of 2 1/2 yrs. I think he is going to progress that fast.

 

Really? What about him makes you think that? Just curious where you're getting your inside info on his career.

 

I don't think any Cubs fan would have said this about the kid if he was taken by another team. A very good player for the Cubs in 2.5 years? We'll be lucky if he sees Wrigley in 2.5 years, and even then we'd be lucky if he compares to Murton by then. And Murton is not "very good". I think a more realistic idea would be he could be an adaquate enough as a player in 3 years so that the Cubs could put him on the field and afford significant talent around him.

[cubfan1954]

I have been reading the ridiculous comments on this board about Tyler Colvin for 2 days now, and can't take it anymore. How can all of you people who have never seen him play and never talked to any scouts about him "decide" that he was a terrible pick? Are you assuming that your judgement based on no evidence is so superior to Joun Manuel or Tim Wilken?

[goonys evil twin]

I have been reading the ridiculous comments on this board about Tyler Colvin for 2 days now, and can't take it anymore. How can all of you people who have never seen him play and never talked to any scouts about him "decide" that he was a terrible pick? Are you assuming that your judgement based on no evidence is so superior to Joun Manuel or Tim Wilken?

 

Well you really come across as a swell guy.

 

The only thing I know about this kid is what all the reports are saying about him. And from everything I read it was an enormous stretch to draft him this early. The Cubs spend $50 on a $30 steak. It could still be a decent steak, but it's no $50 steak. Colvin could be a decent player. But nothing so far indicates it was a good pick. Hopefully in a few years it'll look better.

[CubinNY]

I have been reading the ridiculous comments on this board about Tyler Colvin for 2 days now, and can't take it anymore. How can all of you people who have never seen him play and never talked to any scouts about him "decide" that he was a terrible pick? Are you assuming that your judgement based on no evidence is so superior to Joun Manuel or Tim Wilken?

 

It's not just the people who post here. I think it was Baseball America who called it the biggest surprize in the first round. You can portray it anyway you want, but this pick was not predicted by anyone in any way, shape, or form.

 

Wilken has a good track record, but to just blindly hale the pick and not look at the objective data is not something that is out of the bounds of criticism, especially given the Cubs track record.

 

I think we all hope he turns out great, but that doesn't stop people from questing the pick when other players with better pedigrees and data were out their to be pitcked.

 

It was a big gamble and I think had to do with the fact the Cubs had only one pick in the first four rounds and were planning on another big gamble with their second pick. If Colvin doesn't live up to first round status and the ND kid chooses football this may well be one of the worst drafts ever if none of the other picks pan out.

 

But hey, if you want to use the method of authority go right ahead. I won't criticize you.

[cubfan1954]

"If Colvin doesn't live up to first round status and the ND kid chooses football this may well be one of the worst drafts ever if none of the other picks pan out."

 

You can make this comment on every team's draft - if all of their picks fail then it may well turn out to be one of the worst draafts ever.