5/26: Cubs (Zambrano) VS: Braves (Hudson) - 1:20 P.M.- WGN

[badger1679666666]

http://CUBS are on a pace to score 588 runs this year..... compared to 703 last year

 

Baseball statisticians, how epically bad would this total be?

 

Let me try to answer this again in a different way. Using a metric called a Z score, where you take an occurance (runs scored) subtract if from the mean, (average for the year in which the occurance happened) and divide the result by the standard deviation (also from the year in which the occurance happened), this year's CUBS team is arguably the worst offense in the National League since 1961.

 

This type of measurement will adjust for different numbers of game played (i.e. the strike years) and for changes in runs scored league wide over the years (different eras in terms of hitting) since each occurance is measured against the rest of the league in the year in which it occured, rather than over the span of 46 years.

 

A Z score of zero is exactly average. Scores above zero are above average, and scores below zero are below average. -2.4 is just pathetic !!

 

Year  Team           Runs   Lg Avg  Std Dev     Z score

2006  CUBS            164   217.88   22.436     -2.4013
1969  San Diego       468   657.50   81.254     -2.3322
1961  Philadelphia    584   700.00   50.522     -2.2960
1970  Philadelphia    594   730.92   59.689     -2.2938
1983  New York        575   666.08   41.106     -2.2158
1993  Florida         581   727.86   66.876     -2.1960
1989  Los Angeles     554   639.42   40.903     -2.0883
1982  Cincinnati      545   662.25   56.276     -2.0835
2003  Los Angeles     574   746.56   83.377     -2.0697
1964  Houston         495   651.70   78.512     -1.9959
1990  Houston         573   681.08   54.358     -1.9884
1985  San Fancisco    556   658.25   52.650     -1.9421
1965  New York        495   655.80   84.345     -1.9064
1967  New York        498   621.80   65.103     -1.9016
1973  San Diego       548   671.83   65.247     -1.8979
1977  New York        587   713.00   66.462     -1.8958
1971  San Diego       486   633.42   79.318     -1.8585
1999  Florida         691   810.38   65.048     -1.8352
1974  San Diego       541   672.50   71.976     -1.8270
1992  Los Angeles     548   628.25   44.572     -1.8004
1988  Atlanta         555   626.83   39.960     -1.7976
1995  St. Louis       563   666.36   57.576     -1.7952
2002  Milwaukee       627   719.75   51.777     -1.7914
1963  Houston         464   618.10   87.087     -1.7695
2004  Arizona         615   751.13   78.567     -1.7326
1985  Pittsburgh      568   658.25   52.650     -1.7142
1981  New York        348   419.58   41.820     -1.7117
2001  New York        642   761.63   69.897     -1.7114
1979  Houston         583   682.17   59.069     -1.6788
1987  Los Angeles     635   730.92   57.603     -1.6651
1982  Houston         569   662.25   56.276     -1.6570
1996  Philadelphia    650   758.79   66.868     -1.6269
1991  Washington      579   662.92   52.677     -1.5930
1975  San Diego       552   667.83   73.105     -1.5845
1967  Los Angeles     519   621.80   65.103     -1.5790
1980  San Fancisco    573   654.33   51.647     -1.5748

 

 

Dude there is a reason why I never want to take another Research Methodology and Statistics course. Z and T scores are the reason. It would be nice of you not to remind me that I WILL have to take one in the near future.

 

Thanks for nothing Hornkohl.

[Fred Hornkohl]

 

Dude there is a reason why I never want to take another Research Methodology and Statistics course. Z and T scores are the reason. It would be nice of you not to remind me that I WILL have to take one in the near future.

 

Thanks for nothing Hornkohl.

 

Easy does it, badger. This, too, shall pass !! :wink:

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Wah? Stats was fun. So was econometrics.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

I'll be at this game.

 

I might not wear any Cubs gear.

[soccer10k]

Is it time to discontinue the mlb.tv subscription? I opted to pay monthly instead of paying for the entire season for this very reason.

 

 

Go Cubs.

 

Lucky you. Damnit next year I'm waiting till the ASB atleast.

 

I signed up for the whole year as well.

[soccer10k]

http://CUBS are on a pace to score 588 runs this year..... compared to 703 last year

 

Baseball statisticians, how epically bad would this total be?

 

Let me try to answer this again in a different way. Using a metric called a Z score, where you take an occurance (runs scored) subtract if from the mean, (average for the year in which the occurance happened) and divide the result by the standard deviation (also from the year in which the occurance happened), this year's CUBS team is arguably the worst offense in the National League since 1961.

 

This type of measurement will adjust for different numbers of game played (i.e. the strike years) and for changes in runs scored league wide over the years (different eras in terms of hitting) since each occurance is measured against the rest of the league in the year in which it occured, rather than over the span of 46 years.

 

A Z score of zero is exactly average. Scores above zero are above average, and scores below zero are below average. -2.4 is just pathetic !!

 

Year  Team           Runs   Lg Avg  Std Dev     Z score

2006  CUBS            164   217.88   22.436     -2.4013
1969  San Diego       468   657.50   81.254     -2.3322
1961  Philadelphia    584   700.00   50.522     -2.2960
1970  Philadelphia    594   730.92   59.689     -2.2938
1983  New York        575   666.08   41.106     -2.2158
1993  Florida         581   727.86   66.876     -2.1960
1989  Los Angeles     554   639.42   40.903     -2.0883
1982  Cincinnati      545   662.25   56.276     -2.0835
2003  Los Angeles     574   746.56   83.377     -2.0697
1964  Houston         495   651.70   78.512     -1.9959
1990  Houston         573   681.08   54.358     -1.9884
1985  San Fancisco    556   658.25   52.650     -1.9421
1965  New York        495   655.80   84.345     -1.9064
1967  New York        498   621.80   65.103     -1.9016
1973  San Diego       548   671.83   65.247     -1.8979
1977  New York        587   713.00   66.462     -1.8958
1971  San Diego       486   633.42   79.318     -1.8585
1999  Florida         691   810.38   65.048     -1.8352
1974  San Diego       541   672.50   71.976     -1.8270
1992  Los Angeles     548   628.25   44.572     -1.8004
1988  Atlanta         555   626.83   39.960     -1.7976
1995  St. Louis       563   666.36   57.576     -1.7952
2002  Milwaukee       627   719.75   51.777     -1.7914
1963  Houston         464   618.10   87.087     -1.7695
2004  Arizona         615   751.13   78.567     -1.7326
1985  Pittsburgh      568   658.25   52.650     -1.7142
1981  New York        348   419.58   41.820     -1.7117
2001  New York        642   761.63   69.897     -1.7114
1979  Houston         583   682.17   59.069     -1.6788
1987  Los Angeles     635   730.92   57.603     -1.6651
1982  Houston         569   662.25   56.276     -1.6570
1996  Philadelphia    650   758.79   66.868     -1.6269
1991  Washington      579   662.92   52.677     -1.5930
1975  San Diego       552   667.83   73.105     -1.5845
1967  Los Angeles     519   621.80   65.103     -1.5790
1980  San Fancisco    573   654.33   51.647     -1.5748

 

Fred, busting out the Z scores. I like it. Excellent use of statistics.

[C.C.]

I'll be at this game.

 

I might not wear any Cubs gear.

 

I'll be at the game also. I'm not sure why, but I'll be there.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Fred, you're making my brain hurt with all these numbers you keep throwing around. I got a couple for you: Braves 78, Cubs 0.

[Bull]

Fred, you're making my brain hurt with all these numbers you keep throwing around. I got a couple for you: Braves 78, Cubs 0.

 

Of course the Cubs will win this game, and likely two of three.

 

Anything to get our hopes up for a moment and then...

 

 

smack! down again.

[Soul]

Fred, you're making my brain hurt with all these numbers you keep throwing around. I got a couple for you: Braves 78, Cubs 0.

 

Of course the Cubs will win this game, and likely two of three.

 

Anything to get our hopes up for a moment and then...

 

 

smack! down again.

 

Except at this point, the best thing that could happen is for us to continue losing, and losing badly.

[WindyCity]

Fred, you're making my brain hurt with all these numbers you keep throwing around. I got a couple for you: Braves 78, Cubs 0.

 

There better be a brawl if the Braves go for a 2-point conversion after their 11th TD.

[Big Fergie J]

Yep, Braves vs. Cubs used to be a series to look forward to.

 

Good pitching match-ups across the board.

 

Sadly, not anymore.

 

Good Luck Z....do it all by yourself BigFella.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Fred, you're making my brain hurt with all these numbers you keep throwing around. I got a couple for you: Braves 78, Cubs 0.

 

Here's some more numbers for you.......

 

          1876 thru 2005                            World Series
team                        W       L     pct    PA     W     L

Chicago Cubs             9835    9291   0.514    14     2     8
Atlanta Braves           9533    9556   0.499    20     3     6

 

All those first place finishes...... and the Braves still aren't back up to .500 !!!

 

Go CUBS !!

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Fred, you're making my brain hurt with all these numbers you keep throwing around. I got a couple for you: Braves 78, Cubs 0.

 

Here's some more numbers for you.......

 

          1876 thru 2005                            World Series
team                        W       L     pct    PA     W     L

Chicago Cubs             9835    9291   0.514    14     2     8
Atlanta Braves           9533    9556   0.499    20     3     6

 

All those first place finishes...... and the Braves still aren't back up to .500 !!!

 

Go CUBS !!

 

http://www.huge-entity.com/blogger3/scanners-exploding-head-3.jpg

[Fred Hornkohl]

 

http://www.huge-entity.com/blogger3/scanners-exploding-head-3.jpg

 

Yeah.... the Dow Jones has had a few days like that in the last week or so, too !! :wink:

[badger1679666666]

Wah? Stats was fun. So was econometrics.

 

Sure until you're going back to get your doctorate. Then stats aren't so much fun.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Wah? Stats was fun. So was econometrics.

 

Sure until you're going back to get your doctorate. Then stats aren't so much fun.

 

You gotta to quit when you're ahead.

[halplm]

You made it the National league, which makes sense, but how does that Z score compare in all of baseball since 1961?

 

I mean true, worst ever in the national league is bad... but are there some really bad AL teams to compare it to?

[Fred Hornkohl]

You made it the National league, which makes sense, but how does that Z score compare in all of baseball since 1961?

 

I mean true, worst ever in the national league is bad... but are there some really bad AL teams to compare it to?

 

What is this AL of which you speak ?

[halplm]

You made it the National league, which makes sense, but how does that Z score compare in all of baseball since 1961?

 

I mean true, worst ever in the national league is bad... but are there some really bad AL teams to compare it to?

 

What is this AL of which you speak ?

 

AL is related to HAL from 2001. It's kind of the stupid brother computer that never gets anything right, but also doesn't kill people. I heard it simulated some games where there pitcher doesn't even BAT... this would seem to improve offenses, but doesn't always... especially if you replace the pitcher with guys like... I don't know... Blanco...

[Fred Hornkohl]

You made it the National league, which makes sense, but how does that Z score compare in all of baseball since 1961?

 

I mean true, worst ever in the national league is bad... but are there some really bad AL teams to compare it to?

 

What is this AL of which you speak ?

 

AL is related to HAL from 2001. It's kind of the stupid brother computer that never gets anything right, but also doesn't kill people. I heard it simulated some games where there pitcher doesn't even BAT... this would seem to improve offenses, but doesn't always... especially if you replace the pitcher with guys like... I don't know... Blanco...

 

Sounds like a real second rate knock off to me !! :wink:

[cubbyvirus00]

cubs gonna lose 21-0

[Guancous]

At least the Cubs didn't lose today.

[WindyCity]

The fecal league has recently experienced.... shrinkage.

 

2006 Fecal League Standings (as of 5/25/06)

Team            W       L       PCT     GB
=============   ==      ==      ====    ===
Chicago Cubs    18      28      .391     - 
Pittsburgh      14      31      .311    3.5
Florida         14      33      .298    4.5
Kansas City     10      35      .222    7.5

As always though - while the league may stink, the Cubs remain at the top of the pile.

[Drew Doughty]

hey, I have the dayoff tomorrow!

 

boo, there's a cubs game :(