fire sale

[goonys evil twin]

Actually, goony, although I usually find a lot of value in your posts, I don't in this case. So it's "nonsense" to believe Murton and Cedeno are about as good as they're going to get? Why do you project improvement?

 

Because he's 24 years old, and Ronny is 23. Guys improve in their early 30's, unless they suck and flameout. I'm not guaranteeing these guys will turn great, but if they stick around it will be nearly impossible for them not to improve. Your numbers at 23 and 24 are rarely the same as your numbers at 26, 27 and 28.

 

Peak age is something that's often debated, but I find the evidence compelling for the argument that most hitters reach their peaks at 27.

 

Will Murton develop power? Will Cedeno remember how to take pitches?

 

I'd expect to see signs of development with both sooner rather than later.

 

They'd be nice complementary players on a contending team, but seeing as the Cubs are not a contending team - and appear to be several players short of being one - I'd be willing to trade either if another club overvalues them.

 

Nothing what your wrote defends the claim that they are, right now as good as they will ever be. I'd trade either one in the right deal, no questions asked. I wanted Murton in the OF as the cheap, mildly productive OF to offset the cost of a real, productive OF on the other side. I like Cedeno as the cheap, perfectly acceptable middle infielder and bottom of the order hitter to offset the costs of other more productive hitters. That's why you employ guys like this. Poor teams have to rely on multiple guys like this to carry the team. Expensive teams like the Cubs should use them as a counterbalance in the payroll to the big boys.

 

I'd trade either or both. But neither is as good as he is ever going to get right now.

[cheapseats]

I'd expect to see signs of development with both sooner rather than later.

 

How are Murton and Cedeno different than the vast majority of athletes in every sport? They are not going to peak at 24 or 25 in their 1st or 2nd year in the big leagues.

 

They may very well peak by age 27, though.

 

And maybe we're just arguing over semantics. I do expect both to be better players in three or four years, but I don't believe either will be significantly better. When I said that they're likely as good as they're going to be, I meant that I do not expect improvements that will raise their value to the team above where it is now.

 

In other words, if Murton hits 12 homeruns this year, 14 in 07, and 15 in 08, I don't see that as significant improvement. If Cedeno were to raise his OBP by 10 points over the next two years, I wouldn't see that as significant improvement.

 

FWIW, I did cite the PECOTA projections for each player, and neither is expected to produce at significantly higher levels over the next 5 years. We can debate the accuracy of PECOTA, especially when used to forecast performance of players without much time in hgher levels of the minors, but it's not as if my expectations are low simply because I'm pessimistic.

 

There are some interesting names on Murton's comparables list. His #2 comparable is Rondell White, and Xavider Nady and Bernie Williams appear on the list as well. I'd love it if Murton had a career like Bernie.

 

Ronny's #1 comp is Luis Rivas, with Jack Wilson, Dave Concepcion, and Jose Castillo appearing on the list.

 

I absolutely agree with goony about the way to use players like Murton and Cedeno. They should be complementary players. I'd have no problem if we had a team so good that Ronny should be hitting at the bottom of the order. I'd have no problem with Matt in left field if we had a big bat in RF (right now we have half of one). And I'd hate to pay veterans 5 or 6 times what Matt and Ronny make for the same production or worse, which has been the Cub way of late.

 

I do think it would be ridiculous to consider these guys untouchables. There are some on this board that probably overvalue Ronny and Matt because they are (to some extent) homegrown players, and we all remember how awful it was to have Neifi and Holly in the lineup everyday.

[Guest]

One of the flaws (in my eyes, anyway) of Pecota is that nearly everyone declines over a three year period. Very few players show significant improvement in that system.

[JWCUB]

Lets not toss it in just yet. Granted, this is the worst baseball I have seen the Cubs play in my 22 years of watching them, but it is only mid-May. There is A LOT of baseball to be played. I am as frustrated as the next guy, but I still hold out hope. I still look at the Astros last year, and the Marlins in 03. A couple of 4 or 5 game winning streaks and we are right back in it. IF DLee can come back with a strong and healthy wrist, that will be a huge boost. I think Hendry has to do everything in his power to get Miguel Cabrera in a Cubs uniform, no matter the cost. The Cubs without a doubt, need more power in the line up. Irrational? Maybe. And here is when I will hear it from all of you. They HAVE to count on Wood and Prior to come back healthy and strong. In conclusion, it is very rare in baseball to see the WHOLE team struggle at the same time, but that is what we are seeing. From starting pitching, to the pen at times, to situational hitting, base running, defense, its all slumping at the same time.

 

I'm sure I'll catch some heat for that, but thats just my opinion.

[YearofDaCubs]

Lets not toss it in just yet. Granted, this is the worst baseball I have seen the Cubs play in my 22 years of watching them, but it is only mid-May. There is A LOT of baseball to be played. I am as frustrated as the next guy, but I still hold out hope. I still look at the Astros last year, and the Marlins in 03. A couple of 4 or 5 game winning streaks and we are right back in it. IF DLee can come back with a strong and healthy wrist, that will be a huge boost. I think Hendry has to do everything in his power to get Miguel Cabrera in a Cubs uniform, no matter the cost. The Cubs without a doubt, need more power in the line up. Irrational? Maybe. And here is when I will hear it from all of you. They HAVE to count on Wood and Prior to come back healthy and strong. In conclusion, it is very rare in baseball to see the WHOLE team struggle at the same time, but that is what we are seeing. From starting pitching, to the pen at times, to situational hitting, base running, defense, its all slumping at the same time.

 

I'm sure I'll catch some heat for that, but thats just my opinion.

Both teams you mentioned replaced their manager and we all know Hendry isn't going to do that.

[cheapseats]

it is very rare in baseball to see the WHOLE team struggle at the same time,

 

Is the whole team struggling? As far as offense, Barrett is playing a little above projection right now, as is Ronny and Jacque (believe it or not).

 

Murton's OPS exactly matches the OPS that PECOTA projected for him this season.

 

Walker's slugging percentage isn't as high as it should be, but his OBP is pretty good - higher than it will probably be at the end of the season.

 

The two players who are falling well short of projections are Aramis Ramirez and Juan Pierre. And, of course, Derrek Lee isn't in the lineup.

 

I think what's going on right now shows that Lee and Aramis were being counted on to provide the bulk of the offense this year. I wonder if we'd even be a .500 team if both were healthy and playing as expected.

[Guest]

it is very rare in baseball to see the WHOLE team struggle at the same time,

 

Is the whole team struggling? As far as offense, Barrett is playing a little above projection right now, as is Ronny and Jacque (believe it or not).

 

Murton's OPS exactly matches the OPS that PECOTA projected for him this season.

 

Walker's slugging percentage isn't as high as it should be, but his OBP is pretty good - higher than it will probably be at the end of the season.

 

The two players who are falling well short of projections are Aramis Ramirez and Juan Pierre. And, of course, Derrek Lee isn't in the lineup.

 

I think what's going on right now shows that Lee and Aramis were being counted on to provide the bulk of the offense this year. I wonder if we'd even be a .500 team if both were healthy and playing as expected.

I think the team would be .500 if just ARam were playing as expected.

[hardcorecubfan]

Can't get reid of Maddox, he is the thing that is puting butts in the seats. He is a money maker.

 

Jones is worthless and so is Nefie.

Pierre could come around.

If Wood goes then bring up that Wood II or Brownlie. We have given him a huge signing bonus and been patient, now start pitching!

 

Angel Guzmen gives me the feeling it is only time before he becomes a superstar or is arm falls off. I am taking bets that it will be the latter.

[Banedon]

Can't get reid of Maddox, he is the thing that is puting butts in the seats. He is a money maker.

 

The seats had plenty of butts when Maddux wasn't here.

[chicago chop]

There's no way we'd get Daric Barton from Beane, so I'm not sure what direction I'd pursue here.

 

Excuse my ignorance, but is Daric Barton a good player? I took my son to a minor league game here in Tucson and we ended up catching a Home Run Ball that he hit. Okay, maybe catching wasn't the right word, but the ball landed in front of us so I grabed it....

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There's no way we'd get Daric Barton from Beane, so I'm not sure what direction I'd pursue here.

 

Excuse my ignorance, but is Daric Barton a good player? I took my son to a minor league game here in Tucson and we ended up catching a Home Run Ball that he hit. Okay, maybe catching wasn't the right word, but the ball landed in front of us so I grabed it....

 

He's a pretty good prospect. In BA's prospect handbook, all their writers put Barton in the top 50 in all of baseball.

[cheapseats]

I think the team would be .500 if just ARam were playing as expected.

 

I dunno, Tim. That's a pretty bold claim. Aram playing as expected is worth about 5 wins over the course of a whole season.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

There's no way we'd get Daric Barton from Beane, so I'm not sure what direction I'd pursue here.

 

Excuse my ignorance, but is Daric Barton a good player? I took my son to a minor league game here in Tucson and we ended up catching a Home Run Ball that he hit. Okay, maybe catching wasn't the right word, but the ball landed in front of us so I grabed it....

 

Sickels ranked him the 18th best hitting prospect in all of baseball in his 2006 book. I'd say he's a very good prospect.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Can't get reid of Maddox, he is the thing that is puting butts in the seats. He is a money maker.

 

Jones is worthless and so is Nefie.

Pierre could come around.

If Wood goes then bring up that Wood II or Brownlie. We have given him a huge signing bonus and been patient, now start pitching!

 

Angel Guzmen gives me the feeling it is only time before he becomes a superstar or is arm falls off. I am taking bets that it will be the latter.

 

Considering that most of the tickets have already been sold, that shouldn't be a concern.

 

When trying to trade to rebuild a franchise, it is imperative to trade any player that you don't control beyond this season if you can get anything of value. Holding on to them for sentimental reasons and then losing them for nothing does the team's long term future no good.

 

I doubt we even get a draft pick for Maddux if we hold on to the end of the season. His contract is too high to offer him arbitration at his age. If the Cubs aren't contending this year, Maddux may be the most valuable trade chip we have to get future players.

 

There's little difference in a 85 loss team and a 95 loss team. Neither are worth a crap.

[Guest]

I think the team would be .500 if just ARam were playing as expected.

 

I dunno, Tim. That's a pretty bold claim. Aram playing as expected is worth about 5 wins over the course of a whole season.

It isn't very sabremetric of me, but I think that his "collapse" in production, when combined with Lee's absence, has had a more severe impact than a standard RC or XR estimator would calculate.

[Guest]

There's no way we'd get Daric Barton from Beane, so I'm not sure what direction I'd pursue here.

 

Excuse my ignorance, but is Daric Barton a good player? I took my son to a minor league game here in Tucson and we ended up catching a Home Run Ball that he hit. Okay, maybe catching wasn't the right word, but the ball landed in front of us so I grabed it....

 

Sickels ranked him the 18th best hitting prospect in all of baseball in his 2006 book. I'd say he's a very good prospect.

He's a much better AL prospect, though, as he has DH written all over him.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

There's no way we'd get Daric Barton from Beane, so I'm not sure what direction I'd pursue here.

 

Excuse my ignorance, but is Daric Barton a good player? I took my son to a minor league game here in Tucson and we ended up catching a Home Run Ball that he hit. Okay, maybe catching wasn't the right word, but the ball landed in front of us so I grabed it....

 

Sickels ranked him the 18th best hitting prospect in all of baseball in his 2006 book. I'd say he's a very good prospect.

He's a much better AL prospect, though, as he has DH written all over him.

 

Agreed, but if I could get him in a deal for a player like Maddux, I'd take him. He could be spun to an AL club in the offseason.

[CubfaninCA]

it is very rare in baseball to see the WHOLE team struggle at the same time,

 

Is the whole team struggling? As far as offense, Barrett is playing a little above projection right now, as is Ronny and Jacque (believe it or not).

 

Murton's OPS exactly matches the OPS that PECOTA projected for him this season.

 

Walker's slugging percentage isn't as high as it should be, but his OBP is pretty good - higher than it will probably be at the end of the season.

 

The two players who are falling well short of projections are Aramis Ramirez and Juan Pierre. And, of course, Derrek Lee isn't in the lineup.

 

I think what's going on right now shows that Lee and Aramis were being counted on to provide the bulk of the offense this year. I wonder if we'd even be a .500 team if both were healthy and playing as expected.

 

add 50 points to pierre's abysmal obp and get aram to .850 ops and this team's .500.

 

none of the hitters are really playing above average. unfortunately, a couple guys are just awful when considering their career numbers.

[goonys evil twin]

add 50 points to pierre's abysmal obp and get aram to .850 ops and this team's .500.

 

none of the hitters are really playing above average. unfortunately, a couple guys are just awful when considering their career numbers.

 

[insert something about manager getting the most out of players here]

[CubfaninCA]

add 50 points to pierre's abysmal obp and get aram to .850 ops and this team's .500.

 

none of the hitters are really playing above average. unfortunately, a couple guys are just awful when considering their career numbers.

 

[insert something about manager getting the most out of players here]

 

then dusty deserves credit for making lee an mvp candidate. sure you want to go there? ;)

[goonys evil twin]

add 50 points to pierre's abysmal obp and get aram to .850 ops and this team's .500.

 

none of the hitters are really playing above average. unfortunately, a couple guys are just awful when considering their career numbers.

 

[insert something about manager getting the most out of players here]

 

then dusty deserves credit for making lee an mvp candidate. sure you want to go there? ;)

 

Sure. Once you list the debits and credits, it won't be hard to see that his tenure in Chicago has been a huge negative.

[BigbadB]

add 50 points to pierre's abysmal obp and get aram to .850 ops and this team's .500.

 

none of the hitters are really playing above average. unfortunately, a couple guys are just awful when considering their career numbers.

 

[insert something about manager getting the most out of players here]

 

then dusty deserves credit for making lee an mvp candidate. sure you want to go there? ;)

 

It's because Dusty batted Corey Patterson, Neifi Perez and Jose Macias in the top two spots in the order instead of decent OBP guys that Lee DIDN'T win the MVP. Not only would Lee's RBI totals have been higher, but the Cubs probably would have won a lot more games.

[hardcorecubfan]

Can't get reid of Maddox, he is the thing that is puting butts in the seats. He is a money maker.

 

The seats had plenty of butts when Maddux wasn't here.

 

the people that have the discretionary income are more likely to see a superstar and spend more at the game than a shcool teacher. If you had a choice of Maddux or Jerome Williams and you had that type of time and income I will save it for the Maddux game

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Can't get reid of Maddox, he is the thing that is puting butts in the seats. He is a money maker.

 

The seats had plenty of butts when Maddux wasn't here.

 

the people that have the discretionary income are more likely to see a superstar and spend more at the game than a shcool teacher. If you had a choice of Maddux or Jerome Williams and you had that type of time and income I will save it for the Maddux game

 

That's not the question though. The choice is between Williams or not going.

[oldstyle81]

I would keep Marshall, Cedeno, Murton, Barrett, Dempster, everyone else can go for the right price

 

thank god you arent GM