Fish

[soccer10k]

That projects to 162 runs, 54 RBI and 108 SB. That seems alright to me.

 

Which is the better season:

 

Player A: .300 BA .380 OBP .550 SLG 30 HRs 90 RBI 80 runs 1/3 SB

 

Player B: .250 BA .330 OBP .500 SLG 20 HRs 115 RBI 100 runs 55/60 SB

 

 

 

Player A - RBI and Runs are a team driven stat. What player would you rather pick up in the offseason?

 

I have to agree with you. I would rather have Player A. 90 RBI's for the Yankees is a lot different than 90 RBI's with the Royals.

[srbin84]

Which is the better season:

 

Player A: .300 BA .380 OBP .550 SLG 30 HRs 90 RBI 80 runs 1/3 SB

 

Player B: .250 BA .330 OBP .500 SLG 20 HRs 115 RBI 100 runs 55/60 SB

 

Doesn't that depend on where in the order you want the player to bat?

 

They both bat third. Let's say both players have 5 season in the majors. Player A has Mo Vaughn speed and is a station to station base runner. Player B has Juan Pierre speed. Player A's average and OBP dip considerably with runners on because he presses every AB with a man on trying to get the big hit and he strikes out a lot. Player B has his best numbers across the board with runners on. They play in similar parks with similar lineups.

[soccer10k]

If the players batting behind Pierre weren't hitting at all and Pierre didn't have any runs scored so far, would you still think he was having a good season so far? A player that doesn't hit home runs has to depend on other players to drive him in.

[jjgman21]

That projects to 162 runs, 54 RBI and 108 SB. That seems alright to me.

 

Which is the better season:

 

Player A: .300 BA .380 OBP .550 SLG 30 HRs 90 RBI 80 runs 1/3 SB

 

Player B: .250 BA .330 OBP .500 SLG 20 HRs 115 RBI 100 runs 55/60 SB

 

 

 

Player A - RBI and Runs are a team driven stat. What player would you rather pick up in the offseason?

 

I have to agree with you. I would rather have Player A. 90 RBI's for the Yankees is a lot different than 90 RBI's with the Royals.

 

if we did the analysis that we did with Pierre over the winter, subtract CS from OBP and add SB to SLG, the difference in OPS is about 15 points. if both players play the same position, which would not be the reaction positions of C, 1B or 3B (because none of them ever steal that many bases), you also have to consider the probable huge difference in range on defense because of player B's speed.

 

if the player can consistently walk and steal at the rates implied, this is alot closer decision than it appears at first glance.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Which is the better season:

 

Player A: .300 BA .380 OBP .550 SLG 30 HRs 90 RBI 80 runs 1/3 SB

 

Player B: .250 BA .330 OBP .500 SLG 20 HRs 115 RBI 100 runs 55/60 SB

 

Doesn't that depend on where in the order you want the player to bat?

 

They both bat third. Let's say both players have 5 season in the majors. Player A has Mo Vaughn speed and is a station to station base runner. Player B has Juan Pierre speed. Player A's average and OBP dip considerably with runners on because he presses every AB with a man on trying to get the big hit and he strikes out a lot. Player B has his best numbers across the board with runners on. They play in similar parks with similar lineups.

 

Can you offer an example real players like A and B who hit with runners on base like you just described consistently over the past 3 years? I don't think you can.

Edited April 13, 2006 by CardsFanInChiTown

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Which is the better season:

 

Player A: .300 BA .380 OBP .550 SLG 30 HRs 90 RBI 80 runs 1/3 SB

 

Player B: .250 BA .330 OBP .500 SLG 20 HRs 115 RBI 100 runs 55/60 SB

 

Doesn't that depend on where in the order you want the player to bat?

 

They both bat third. Let's say both players have 5 season in the majors. Player A has Mo Vaughn speed and is a station to station base runner. Player B has Juan Pierre speed. Player A's average and OBP dip considerably with runners on because he presses every AB with a man on trying to get the big hit and he strikes out a lot. Player B has his best numbers across the board with runners on. They play in similar parks with similar lineups.

 

Player A

[jjgman21]

Which is the better season:

 

Player A: .300 BA .380 OBP .550 SLG 30 HRs 90 RBI 80 runs 1/3 SB

 

Player B: .250 BA .330 OBP .500 SLG 20 HRs 115 RBI 100 runs 55/60 SB

 

Doesn't that depend on where in the order you want the player to bat?

 

They both bat third. Let's say both players have 5 season in the majors. Player A has Mo Vaughn speed and is a station to station base runner. Player B has Juan Pierre speed. Player A's average and OBP dip considerably with runners on because he presses every AB with a man on trying to get the big hit and he strikes out a lot. Player B has his best numbers across the board with runners on. They play in similar parks with similar lineups.

 

CLUTCH ARGUMENT ALERT!! CLUTCH ARGUMENT ALERT!!

 

RUN AWAY, RUN AWAY!!!

 

 

edit - srbin, this is not insulting you. this is insulting us all for getting into the same discussion over and over and over.

[soccer10k]

Which is the better season:

 

Player A: .300 BA .380 OBP .550 SLG 30 HRs 90 RBI 80 runs 1/3 SB

 

Player B: .250 BA .330 OBP .500 SLG 20 HRs 115 RBI 100 runs 55/60 SB

 

Doesn't that depend on where in the order you want the player to bat?

 

They both bat third. Let's say both players have 5 season in the majors. Player A has Mo Vaughn speed and is a station to station base runner. Player B has Juan Pierre speed. Player A's average and OBP dip considerably with runners on because he presses every AB with a man on trying to get the big hit and he strikes out a lot. Player B has his best numbers across the board with runners on. They play in similar parks with similar lineups.

 

I would still have to go with Player A for the reason that CardsFanInChiTown cited. Just compare Derrek Lee and David Ortiz from last year. Lee had a higher BA, higher OBP, higher SLG, and 1 less home run than Ortiz yet Lee had 41 less RBI's. I know that American Leaguers usually have more RBI's but Lee was clearly the superior all around hitter last year. But I guarantee you that if you switched the two players that Lee's RBI stats would have soared and Ortiz's would have dropped like a rock.

[srbin84]

I have no idea if two players like those two have ever existed. I just don't see the point of having a guy who gets on base a lot but is the slowest player in the league vs. the guy who gets on base less but is the fastest player in the league. Let's look at this way:

 

Two players, both bat leadoff in average lineups and neutral parks. OBP, steals and runs are the only stats that differ. They are both .270 hitters. Everything else is exactly the same.

 

Player 1 has .380 OBP and Mo Vaughn speed/baserunning

 

Player 2 has .330 OBP and Ricky Henderson speed/baserunning

 

I guess what I want to know is the value of speed vs. OBP, not speed vs. SLG.

Edited April 13, 2006 by srbin84

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I have no idea if two players like those two have ever existed. I just don't see the point of having a guy who gets on base a lot but is the slowest player in the league vs. the guy who gets on base less but is the fastest player in the league. Let's look at this way:

 

Two players, both bat leadoff in average lineups and neutral parks. OBP, steals and runs are the only stats that differ. They are both .270 hitters. Everything else is exactly the same.

 

Pierre 1 has .380 OBP and Mo Vaughn speed/baserunning

 

Player 2 has .330 OBP and Rick Henderson/baserunning

 

I guess what I want to know is the value of speed vs. OBP, not speed vs. SLG.

 

OBP. Remember, a lot of the advantage speed gives Player 2 is already reflected in OBP and the other metrics. There's still some value outside of that, but not nearly enough to make up a 50 point OBP differential.

[srbin84]

I have no idea if two players like those two have ever existed. I just don't see the point of having a guy who gets on base a lot but is the slowest player in the league vs. the guy who gets on base less but is the fastest player in the league. Let's look at this way:

 

Two players, both bat leadoff in average lineups and neutral parks. OBP, steals and runs are the only stats that differ. They are both .270 hitters. Everything else is exactly the same.

 

Pierre 1 has .380 OBP and Mo Vaughn speed/baserunning

 

Player 2 has .330 OBP and Rick Henderson/baserunning

 

I guess what I want to know is the value of speed vs. OBP, not speed vs. SLG.

 

OBP. Remember, a lot of the advantage speed gives Player 2 is already reflected in OBP and the other metrics. There's still some value outside of that, but not nearly enough to make up a 50 point OBP differential.

 

So if both have 700 PAs, player A is on base 266 times, player B 231, and both have the same SLG%. You like 266 times with Mo Vaughn vs. 231 with Ricky Henderson?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I have no idea if two players like those two have ever existed. I just don't see the point of having a guy who gets on base a lot but is the slowest player in the league vs. the guy who gets on base less but is the fastest player in the league. Let's look at this way:

 

Two players, both bat leadoff in average lineups and neutral parks. OBP, steals and runs are the only stats that differ. They are both .270 hitters. Everything else is exactly the same.

 

Pierre 1 has .380 OBP and Mo Vaughn speed/baserunning

 

Player 2 has .330 OBP and Rick Henderson/baserunning

 

I guess what I want to know is the value of speed vs. OBP, not speed vs. SLG.

 

OBP. Remember, a lot of the advantage speed gives Player 2 is already reflected in OBP and the other metrics. There's still some value outside of that, but not nearly enough to make up a 50 point OBP differential.

 

So if both have 700 PAs, player A is on base 266 times, player B 231, and both have the same SLG%. You like 266 times with Mo Vaughn vs. 231 with Ricky Henderson?

 

It's a very unlikely hypothetical, but yes, I'll take more times on base.

[BigbadB]

Speed has no factor on home runs, and home runs are a huge part of scoring. If Juan Pierre gets on via a base hit and then steals 2nd and 3rd base and Derrek Lee hits a home run, it really didn't matter that Juan Pierre stole those bases, because he would have scored if he was just standing on 1b.

 

The more often a guy gets on base, the chance that he will score increases.

 

I'm not dogging Pierre. I did that enough in the offseason. I think it's too early to make any assessment of Pierre. If he goes 4-4 today, Pierre will raise his AVG by almost 100 points. It's too early. Is Ramirez going to struggle all year like he as so far? I don't think so.

 

I'm very concerned that Pierre had such an off year last year. If he has another off year, this team will struggle. He's put up respectable OBP's in the past, so all we can hope is that he'll get that OBP back where it won't hurt the team.

[katway]

Speed has no factor on home runs, and home runs are a huge part of scoring. If Juan Pierre gets on via a base hit and then steals 2nd and 3rd base and Derrek Lee hits a home run, it really didn't matter that Juan Pierre stole those bases, because he would have scored if he was just standing on 1b...

 

Not entirely true. Pierre clearly distracts pitchers when he is on base. The less focussed a pitcher is on the hitter, the better the hitter's chances of getting a pitch he can hit, including homeruns. Those stolen bases may have affected the pitcher, the pitches that are thrown (don't want to throw a slider in the dirt with Pierre on third), etc...

[UBlink]

What does he do that doesn't show up in the box score?

 

One thing I can think of is making a defender rush a throw inducing an error. I know Pierre has gotten on by error at least once this season, and I seem to recall the error appeared to be a rushed throw. I don't know if there is a way to quantify this effect, but if you counted that as hit it would raise his average 33 points - even if you only didn't count the AB it would raise his average 8 points. I'm normally heavily in the stats camp, but I do believe that a fast runner can induce errors. And if DLee or ARam knocks him in, while it may not be an earned run it will still help you win the game.

 

So obviously if all other things are equal, you go with the speedy guy. But if things aren't totally equal, would it be reasonable to add 5 or 10 points to someone like Pierre's OBP to reflect that he's likely to get on 3-6 times through an induced error?

[jjgman21]

Speed has no factor on home runs, and home runs are a huge part of scoring. If Juan Pierre gets on via a base hit and then steals 2nd and 3rd base and Derrek Lee hits a home run, it really didn't matter that Juan Pierre stole those bases, because he would have scored if he was just standing on 1b.

 

 

I know what your saying, but I think you take the importance of homerun scoring too far. the Cubs were the highest percentage of runs scored via HR the past two years, and they were at what, 42%? I agree, there will be some useless stolen bases, but even the Cubs score a majority of their runs in other ways. I think the useless stolen bases and some of the OBP advantage is offset by the number of times a Rickey Henderson type player will be at second via steal and score on a single when a Mo Vaughn type player will be at second base after that single, and end up stranded at the end of the inning. sure, there's useless steals, but there's alot of useless avoidance of outs when a guy like Mo Vaughn is running the bases.

[SouthSideRyan]

I have no idea if two players like those two have ever existed. I just don't see the point of having a guy who gets on base a lot but is the slowest player in the league vs. the guy who gets on base less but is the fastest player in the league. Let's look at this way:

 

 

What is the relevance of this with regards to Pierre? Nobody's going to run the slowest player in the league out to CF every day. The point is, thus far, Juan hasn't gotten on base enough to be a good leadoff hitter, whether he's fast or not.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

What does he do that doesn't show up in the box score?

 

One thing I can think of is making a defender rush a throw inducing an error. I know Pierre has gotten on by error at least once this season, and I seem to recall the error appeared to be a rushed throw. I don't know if there is a way to quantify this effect, but if you counted that as hit it would raise his average 33 points - even if you only didn't count the AB it would raise his average 8 points. I'm normally heavily in the stats camp, but I do believe that a fast runner can induce errors. And if DLee or ARam knocks him in, while it may not be an earned run it will still help you win the game.

 

So obviously if all other things are equal, you go with the speedy guy. But if things aren't totally equal, would it be reasonable to add 5 or 10 points to someone like Pierre's OBP to reflect that he's likely to get on 3-6 times through an induced error?

 

Pierre reached on an error yesterday, while the throw was rushed somewhat, it was an easy play for Hatteberg and he just dropped the ball. However, I see what you're saying about forcing errors. The problem with crediting his OBP is that it isn't really relative. How many more errors does Pierre force than someone with Todd Walker's speed? How many would be errors no matter how fast the player is? It's a dangerous road to imply anything the hitter did forced the error(aside from the ball in play itself).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Speed has no factor on home runs, and home runs are a huge part of scoring. If Juan Pierre gets on via a base hit and then steals 2nd and 3rd base and Derrek Lee hits a home run, it really didn't matter that Juan Pierre stole those bases, because he would have scored if he was just standing on 1b...

 

Not entirely true. Pierre clearly distracts pitchers when he is on base. The less focussed a pitcher is on the hitter, the better the hitter's chances of getting a pitch he can hit, including homeruns. Those stolen bases may have affected the pitcher, the pitches that are thrown (don't want to throw a slider in the dirt with Pierre on third), etc...

 

Can you prove this? Look at each time Pierre has been on base and see what the results are. It shouldn't be that hard since he's only been on base 8 times this year.

[jjgman21]

Speed has no factor on home runs, and home runs are a huge part of scoring. If Juan Pierre gets on via a base hit and then steals 2nd and 3rd base and Derrek Lee hits a home run, it really didn't matter that Juan Pierre stole those bases, because he would have scored if he was just standing on 1b...

 

Not entirely true. Pierre clearly distracts pitchers when he is on base. The less focussed a pitcher is on the hitter, the better the hitter's chances of getting a pitch he can hit, including homeruns. Those stolen bases may have affected the pitcher, the pitches that are thrown (don't want to throw a slider in the dirt with Pierre on third), etc...

 

Can you prove this? Look at each time Pierre has been on base and see what the results are. It shouldn't be that hard since he's only been on base 8 times this year.

 

probably not the best example since he's scored 6 runs in those 8 times on base. thus lending credibility that something about Pierre being on base makes the batters better / pitcher worse.

 

interestingly, Pierre has not scored a single run after any of the 23 times he did not reach base. (sorry, I just was reading the game thread)

[XZero771679666304]

Speed has no factor on home runs, and home runs are a huge part of scoring. If Juan Pierre gets on via a base hit and then steals 2nd and 3rd base and Derrek Lee hits a home run, it really didn't matter that Juan Pierre stole those bases, because he would have scored if he was just standing on 1b...

 

Not entirely true. Pierre clearly distracts pitchers when he is on base. The less focussed a pitcher is on the hitter, the better the hitter's chances of getting a pitch he can hit, including homeruns. Those stolen bases may have affected the pitcher, the pitches that are thrown (don't want to throw a slider in the dirt with Pierre on third), etc...

 

Can you prove this? Look at each time Pierre has been on base and see what the results are. It shouldn't be that hard since he's only been on base 8 times this year.

 

I can't speak for others, but when I pitched I hated having basestealers on the basepaths. It was definitely disctracting because anything that draws even an iota of your attention from the batter has an effect. You know that the batter in the box is the most important, but at the same time you don't want to let the guy on first advance himself to second or third, especially if there are less than 2 outs. You also don't worry as much with someone you know is going to be anchored to the bag.

 

You can't quantify it statistically, but having a speedster on the bases has to have an effect on the pitcher more often than not. Unless you are Greg Maddux, that is.

 

Having said that, OBP trumps speed. But I think Pierre will be fine.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Speed has no factor on home runs, and home runs are a huge part of scoring. If Juan Pierre gets on via a base hit and then steals 2nd and 3rd base and Derrek Lee hits a home run, it really didn't matter that Juan Pierre stole those bases, because he would have scored if he was just standing on 1b...

 

Not entirely true. Pierre clearly distracts pitchers when he is on base. The less focussed a pitcher is on the hitter, the better the hitter's chances of getting a pitch he can hit, including homeruns. Those stolen bases may have affected the pitcher, the pitches that are thrown (don't want to throw a slider in the dirt with Pierre on third), etc...

 

Can you prove this? Look at each time Pierre has been on base and see what the results are. It shouldn't be that hard since he's only been on base 8 times this year.

 

probably not the best example since he's scored 6 runs in those 8 times on base. thus lending credibility that something about Pierre being on base makes the batters better / pitcher worse.

 

interestingly, Pierre has not scored a single run after any of the 23 times he did not reach base. (sorry, I just was reading the game thread)

 

Jacque Jones has scored 3 of the 4 times he's been on base, is his speed that much a nuisance? The pitcher may just not be very good(as evidenced by giving up hits to Pierre and his compatriots), or he's less effective from the stretch(true of many pitchers). I'd give both of those more credence than Pierre's speed distracting the pitcher to the point of being noticeably worse.

 

EDIT: But all of this is getting away from the original point that I was making, that Pierre hasn't been good thus far.

[jjgman21]

Speed has no factor on home runs, and home runs are a huge part of scoring. If Juan Pierre gets on via a base hit and then steals 2nd and 3rd base and Derrek Lee hits a home run, it really didn't matter that Juan Pierre stole those bases, because he would have scored if he was just standing on 1b...

 

Not entirely true. Pierre clearly distracts pitchers when he is on base. The less focussed a pitcher is on the hitter, the better the hitter's chances of getting a pitch he can hit, including homeruns. Those stolen bases may have affected the pitcher, the pitches that are thrown (don't want to throw a slider in the dirt with Pierre on third), etc...

 

Can you prove this? Look at each time Pierre has been on base and see what the results are. It shouldn't be that hard since he's only been on base 8 times this year.

 

probably not the best example since he's scored 6 runs in those 8 times on base. thus lending credibility that something about Pierre being on base makes the batters better / pitcher worse.

 

interestingly, Pierre has not scored a single run after any of the 23 times he did not reach base. (sorry, I just was reading the game thread)

 

Jacque Jones has scored 3 of the 4 times he's been on base, is his speed that much a nuisance? The pitcher may just not be very good(as evidenced by giving up hits to Pierre and his compatriots), or he's less effective from the stretch(true of many pitchers). I'd give both of those more credence than Pierre's speed distracting the pitcher to the point of being noticeably worse.

 

EDIT: But all of this is getting away from the original point that I was making, that Pierre hasn't been good thus far.

 

easy there. I was just pointing out a that there is an anomoly in the evidence you used, and that evidence lead to a flawed argument.

 

as for the part I bolded, simply by saying this, it leads me to believe you are trying to say something more than your original point described in your edit. there's some ax grinding going on here.

[UBlink]

What does he do that doesn't show up in the box score?

 

One thing I can think of is making a defender rush a throw inducing an error. I know Pierre has gotten on by error at least once this season, and I seem to recall the error appeared to be a rushed throw. I don't know if there is a way to quantify this effect, but if you counted that as hit it would raise his average 33 points - even if you only didn't count the AB it would raise his average 8 points. I'm normally heavily in the stats camp, but I do believe that a fast runner can induce errors. And if DLee or ARam knocks him in, while it may not be an earned run it will still help you win the game.

 

So obviously if all other things are equal, you go with the speedy guy. But if things aren't totally equal, would it be reasonable to add 5 or 10 points to someone like Pierre's OBP to reflect that he's likely to get on 3-6 times through an induced error?

 

Pierre reached on an error yesterday, while the throw was rushed somewhat, it was an easy play for Hatteberg and he just dropped the ball. However, I see what you're saying about forcing errors. The problem with crediting his OBP is that it isn't really relative. How many more errors does Pierre force than someone with Todd Walker's speed? How many would be errors no matter how fast the player is? It's a dangerous road to imply anything the hitter did forced the error(aside from the ball in play itself).

 

I might say it is equally dangerous to imply (as current statistics do) that the hitter had no influence on the error. My point is that if I were comparing players as a GM, I might make a subjective adjustment to Pierre's stats - say if he reached via error once every 30 PA while an average hitter gets on by error only once every 100 PA.

[BigbadB]

I'd like to point out that my response above was more a reflection of which player I'd rather have on my team, the guy who provides a much higher OBP or the guy who can steal bases much better.

 

I'd love to have a guy with tremendous OBP and excellent speed. But, if I have to have a trade off, I'll take the guy with good OBP.

 

I've said all along in this thread that it's way too early to make a judgment on Pierre. If he goes 4-4 today, his AVG will increase nearly 100 points in one day.

 

But, I really wasn't that big of a fan of trading for him in the first place. He provided a .326 OBP last year. He also got caught stealing many times last year, which doesn't even calculate into that lousy OBP for a lead off hitter. If all he can provide as a .326 OBP, Pierre is a glorified Tom Goodwin, and that's not good enough.

 

He's put up better numbers in the past, and I hope he comes closer to those numbers, but we are barely over a week into the season, so giving a grade to Pierre at this point is a bit premature.