PECOTA NL Central Projections On BP

[CardsFanInChiTown]

I pretty much agree with everything here however I think 2B will resolve itself for the Cards. It should be an interesting...

 

 

 

NL Central    W      L    RS      RA    BatDelta   PitDelta
Cardinals    86     76   748     703      +9        +31
Cubs         85     77   725     690     -21        +60
Brewers      84     78   742     713      +2        +26
Astros       81     81   717     716     -17        +18
Pirates      79     83   731     755      -7        -11
Reds         78     84   746     778      +9        -34

 

 

While I’m skeptical about the win totals that PECOTA has associated with the White Sox and Angels, I believe this number to be right for the Cardinals. The Opening Day lineup will feature four starters--Yadier Molina, David Eckstein, So Taguchi, and Junior Spivey, that simply don’t qualify as adequate regulars for a first-division club. Nor do the Cardinals have anything in the way of farm system depth. It’s going to require some mid-season capital expenditures to get this team in shape for the post-season, and given that the parity in the National League is likely to produce a seller’s market, Walt Jocketty’s Midwestern conservatism could get in the way of another pennant.

As I’ve already alluded, I don’t think much of the Cubs’ complacent approach this winter, which shows a real lack of understanding of the dynamics inherent in the talent market. But even with a pitching staff that has about as many red lines through it as my NCAA tournament bracket, the Cubs almost can’t help but be better this year. The Cubs had 86-win talent last season (a year in which they also had significant injury problems), the superstars are there in Derrek Lee and Carlos Zambrano, and there’s some addition by subtraction in getting rid of Corey Patterson and his .254 OBP. I’m having a little bit of trouble envisioning where that breakout season is going to come from that gets them much above 86 wins, as I share PECOTA’s lukewarmness toward Matt Murton and Ronny Cedeno. A sort of last hurrah by Greg Maddux? Scott Williamson, fully recovered from surgery, being lights out in the second half and displacing Ryan Dempster? Just perhaps, and the Cubs have thrived on low expectations in the recent past.

 

The Brewers have become such a pet sleeper club that I don’t feel much compulsion to write about them. But it’s easy to see why we’ve developed a crush on them, between getting a full year of Ben Sheets, and a middle infield tandem that has just a tiny, tiny bit of Trammell-Whitaker potential. It’s not going to take much, since the Brewers Pythagoreaned at 84-78 last year without any players that dramatically overachieved. Derrick Turnbow? Okay, got us there.

 

In foraging for a surprise contender among the other three teams in the Central, the theory says that we ought to go with the Reds, since they have the best offense, and the volatility associated with pitching could work in their favor this time around. In practice, I have so little confidence in this organization’s ability to identify pitching talent I can’t fathom it, though at least Marge Schott isn’t around to see Bronson Arroyo’s dye job and demote him to Chattanooga. Nor do I see enough breakout potential in a Pittsburgh Pirate, now that we’re already giving them credit for Ryan Doumit. So the hopes of making this a four-team race are probably going to depend on the Astros and that bastardo magnífico, Roger Clemens.

 

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4917

Edited March 29, 2006 by CardsFanInChiTown

[goonys evil twin]

All 6 teams within 8 wins of each other?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

All 6 teams within 8 wins of each other?

 

I'd pay to see that.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

All 6 teams within 8 wins of each other?

 

The NL Central is easily the most competitive division. That said, I was surpised how much love the Pirates got.

Edited March 29, 2006 by CardsFanInChiTown

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

All 6 teams within 8 wins of each other?

 

I think that usually happens when BP runs these projections each year.

 

It is a positive that the Cubs only project one game behind the Cardinals.

[Derwood]

But even with a pitching staff that has about as many red lines through it as my NCAA tournament bracket...

 

:lol: great line.....okay, shoot me please :cry:

[SouthSideRyan]

Projections for standings really only seem to have value for placement, and not for wins since everything is regressed to the mean. If the Pirates and Reds combine for 157 wins I'll eat my hat.

[BigbadB]

Well, you know Pittsburgh will be big sellers at the trade deadline once again, so without factoring in fire sales, those numbers may not be that far off.

[TheDude]

Well, you know Pittsburgh will be big sellers at the trade deadline once again, so without factoring in fire sales, those numbers may not be that far off.

 

What do the Pirates have to sell?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

What do the Pirates have to sell?

 

Burnitz

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

What do the Pirates have to sell?

 

Burnitz

 

Casey

[soccer10k]

All 6 teams within 8 wins of each other?

 

At first I was going to say no way this happens but then I looked up the NL East from last year and all 5 teams finished within 9 games of each other and no team finished with a sub-.500 record (Washington was 81-81). I guess it's possible, but still it's unlikely.

[Jehrico]

Well, you know Pittsburgh will be big sellers at the trade deadline once again, so without factoring in fire sales, those numbers may not be that far off.

 

What do the Pirates have to sell?

 

Bay :D

[goonys evil twin]

Well, you know Pittsburgh will be big sellers at the trade deadline once again, so without factoring in fire sales, those numbers may not be that far off.

 

What do the Pirates have to sell?

 

Bay :D

 

That's crazy. He won't be traded until 2007.

[USSoccer]

It is interesting that our Pitching Delta is still at a +60.

[Coach C]

Not to hi-jack it a bit, but I would be interested what would the PECOTA for the AL Central.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Not to hi-jack it a bit, but I would be interested what would the PECOTA for the AL Central.

 

AL Central    W      L     RS    RA    BatDelta   PitDelta
Indians      88     74    825   757      +39        +16
Twins        84     78    757   727      -42        +62
Tigers       83     79    800   776      +18         -3
White Sox    82     80    785   772      -48        +52
Royals       61    101    695   901      -67       -110

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Haha, not even PECOTA has the Royals staying under 100 losses. Edited March 30, 2006 by Transmogrified Tiger

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Haha, not even PECOTA has the Royals staying under 100 wins.

 

:?:

[rocket]

Haha, not even PECOTA has the Royals staying under 100 wins.

 

:?:

 

replace the word 'wins' with 'losses'.

[Coach C]

Much appreciated CardsFanInChiTown.

 

Just as I suspected. Somewhere between 90-100 losses for the Royals.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I = stupid

[Coach C]

I = stupid

 

Now now, no attacking the person. Attack the post. :wink: :lol:

[UBlink]

Haha, not even PECOTA has the Royals staying under 100 losses.

 

But they have Sisco!

[Coach C]

Haha, not even PECOTA has the Royals staying under 100 losses.

 

But they have Sisco!

 

Yes, and I think the most impressive Sisco story I know is when he pitched a 12 inning game while singing Handel's Messiah, and didn't miss a single note or strikes.