BA's Top 100 Prospects

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Interesting decision coming up for the D'Backs if Upton and Drew are both what they appear to be and neither want to move positions.

[goonys evil twin]

We need this guy up here instead of Clines.

 

He's probably more valuable teaching the young kids who are willing to learn as opposed to veterans who are stuck in their ways.

 

That's why I feel confident he's going to continue to hit at this level.

 

Anyone wanna bet a steak dinner over it?

 

That all depends on what you mean be "continue to hit". Are you saying he'll hit over .300, or .270, or .330? Or are you talking more about overall production at the plate, and his AVG/OBP/SLG line being at a certain level.

 

I don't have a ton of faith in Cedeno being a very solid hitter, but I do believe he's got the ability to get the job done at an acceptable level.

Edited February 23, 2006 by goony's evil twin

[goonys evil twin]

I think it's a ceiling thing.

 

I think that's why he gets more value.

 

Personally I'd trade a Pawelek for a guy with a good chance to be a solid starter immediately, and a reasonable chance to become an above-average asset starter. So I'd definitely value guys like Cedeno and Murton ahead of Pawalek.

 

 

We are talking about Baseball America here, so clearly it's a ceiling thing. They always put far more emphasis on ceiling as opposed to likelihood of making the big leagues.

 

Whether you'd trade Pawelek for Cedeno depends entirely on what your team needs are and where you team stands against the competition. Right now I'd trade Pawelek, no doubt, for a player like Cedeno, a young guy who can start this year at a position of need. But if you are Florida, does that make sense? SS can be filled with 1 guy, maybe 2, over a 5 year period. You will probably need 15-20 starting pitchers over a 5 year period. If you have an adequate SS, or the means to acquire one elsewhere, but were still a couple years away from contending, it probably wouldn't make much sense to trade Pawalek for Cedeno.

[Outshined_One]

Has Upton even played a lick of pro ball yet?

[Outshined_One]

Some notes from Callis' BA chat:

 

Q: Sean Stutz from Spencerport, NY asks:

Hey Jim, I was shocked by the exclusion of Ryan Harvey in the top 100 prospects list. I know that he strikesout out too much and needs to walk more, but the guy has as much power potential as anyone in the minor leagues today. You add that power potential with his plus fielding ability, and I dont see why he didnt make the top 100. Can you think of any reason why he wasn't included?

A:

 

Jim Callis: I agree that Harvey has huge upside, but he also has a lot of possible downside, too. Every scout I talked to who saw him this year mentioned a different flaw in his swing, and there are some real questions about his ability to hit quality pitching. We'll learn more this year.

 

Q: Mike from Corpus Christi, Texas asks:

I noticed that you had Mark Pawelek and Chris Volstad in your top 100. Why not Travis Wood?

A:

 

Jim Callis: Those guys offer a little bit more between stuff, polish and mechanics than Wood, which was reflected in their draft status. Wood does have a very nice arm and could jump on next year.

 

Q: David Collins from Toronto asks:

Why no love for Rich Hill? He had a phenominal season...

A:

 

Jim Callis: Let's see him do it one more time. His decent command came out of nowhere, and he got rocked in the majors. He just missed the cut.

 

For 1908:

 

Q: Jerry from NY asks:

If Daisuke Matsuzaka had been posted and signed with a US club, where would he be in the top 100?

A:

 

Jim Callis: Top 25, probably. More than a few spots ahead of Kenji Johjima.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

We need this guy up here instead of Clines.

 

He's probably more valuable teaching the young kids who are willing to learn as opposed to veterans who are stuck in their ways.

 

I completely agree.

 

Has Upton even played a lick of pro ball yet?

 

Not yet, he signed in the winter. Mark Prior was rated just as high without playing any pro ball (of course he had 3 years of college on Upton).

[Jehrico]

We need this guy up here instead of Clines.

 

He's probably more valuable teaching the young kids who are willing to learn as opposed to veterans who are stuck in their ways.

 

I completely agree.

 

Good point...if only we could clone him...

[NorthsideAvenger]

Let me ask you this then: If Cedeno was on another team, would you trade Pawalek for him? I would in a heart beat. 18 yr old high ceiling high school pitchers are a dime a dozen, such a small percentage don't pan out. Cedeno is worth well more than Pawalek at this point in both of the players stages of development. Thus, I'd rank him quite a bit higher.

 

I wouldn't. There are players like Cesar and Macier Izturis, Erick Aybar (very solid SS prospect of the Angels), Omar Quintilla, etc. Cedeno has a better glove, or a better bat, but these are similar type players, that could be had for LESS then Pawelek. If in your hyperthetical situation, would I trade Pawelek for Cedeno? Of course not....I would offer something like....JK Ryu, or somebody of that caliber for Cedeno. Cedeno will be a fine player, but like the Yankees, we tend to grossly overrated certain young players (ie Hill/Patterson/Choi).

[Jehrico]

Let me ask you this then: If Cedeno was on another team, would you trade Pawalek for him? I would in a heart beat. 18 yr old high ceiling high school pitchers are a dime a dozen, such a small percentage don't pan out. Cedeno is worth well more than Pawalek at this point in both of the players stages of development. Thus, I'd rank him quite a bit higher.

 

I wouldn't. There are players like Cesar and Macier Izturis, Erick Aybar (very solid SS prospect of the Angels), Omar Quintilla, etc. Cedeno has a better glove, or a better bat, but these are similar type players, that could be had for LESS then Pawelek. If in your hyperthetical situation, would I trade Pawelek for Cedeno? Of course not....I would offer something like....JK Ryu, or somebody of that caliber for Cedeno. Cedeno will be a fine player, but like the Yankees, we tend to grossly overrated certain young players (ie Hill/Patterson/Choi).

 

You wouldn't come close to getting someone like Cedeno with Ryu. The Izturis brothers aren't worth nearly as much. I don't know enough about Aybar or Quintanilla to comment on those guys.

[imb]

I hate to break it to you, but you arent getting Aybar with Pawelek or JK Ryu, or even both of them combined.

[CubsMinorLeagueReport]

Interesting decision coming up for the D'Backs if Upton and Drew are both what they appear to be and neither want to move positions.

 

Upton's future is in the OF, probably Center.

[treebird]

Interesting decision coming up for the D'Backs if Upton and Drew are both what they appear to be and neither want to move positions.

 

Upton's future is in the OF, probably Center.

 

not if the rays are smart

 

so yes, it's in the of

[Outshined_One]

Interesting decision coming up for the D'Backs if Upton and Drew are both what they appear to be and neither want to move positions.

 

Upton's future is in the OF, probably Center.

 

not if the rays are smart

 

so yes, it's in the of

 

Since when did the D-Rays have Justin Upton? :P

[Tim]

Interesting decision coming up for the D'Backs if Upton and Drew are both what they appear to be and neither want to move positions.

 

Upton's future is in the OF, probably Center.

 

not if the rays are smart

 

so yes, it's in the of

They were talking about Justin Upton. I think BJ is going to stay at SS. But the DBacks are talking about switching Justin to CF right away to get him to the majors faster. Though my guess would be that they let him stick at short for this season to play his way into or out of the position.

[treebird]

Interesting decision coming up for the D'Backs if Upton and Drew are both what they appear to be and neither want to move positions.

 

Upton's future is in the OF, probably Center.

 

not if the rays are smart

 

so yes, it's in the of

 

Since when did the D-Rays have Justin Upton? :P

 

congrats on pointing out my drunken lack of reading

 

BJ UPTON SHOULD BE SS, MY CRUSADE DOES NOT END HERE

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Interesting decision coming up for the D'Backs if Upton and Drew are both what they appear to be and neither want to move positions.

 

Upton's future is in the OF, probably Center.

 

not if the rays are smart

 

so yes, it's in the of

They were talking about Justin Upton. I think BJ is going to stay at SS. But the DBacks are talking about switching Justin to CF right away to get him to the majors faster. Though my guess would be that they let him stick at short for this season to play his way into or out of the position.

 

Why would the Dbacks want to move Upton to CF when they also have Young to play there?

[Tim]

Because you put every prospect where they can succeed the best independently of who else you have at the position. When they get to the pros, you make adjustments at that point if they're blocked.

 

Besides, Upton's going to be a better player than Young, who faces a difficult adjustment to the pro game given his strikeout rate.

[bmkhawk]

Quite a statement.

 

Especially considering you have no college or minor league statistics from Upton from which to draw upon. It seems a bit unfair to pit Young's statistics against an imaginary foe.

[Tim]

Quite a statement.

 

Especially considering you have no college or minor league statistics from Upton from which to draw upon. It seems a bit unfair to pit Young's statistics against an imaginary foe.

Just an opinion formed from the universal reactions of scouts who have watched Upton play. He's been under a microscope for years now and has impressed everyone who has reported upon seeing him play. Upton may not have yet played pro ball, but he's hardly imaginary.

 

Young has holes in his game that minor league pitchers have been able to exploit. He's a very good prospect and I think he'll be fine in the long run. But I have a theory that players with that kind of strikeout rate in the minors adapt more slowly when they hit the bigs.

[NorthsideAvenger]

I hate to break it to you, but you arent getting Aybar with Pawelek or JK Ryu, or even both of them combined.

 

First: Aybar isn't WORTH Pawelek, IMO. Aybar is younger version of Cesar Itzuris anyways. They DO have a kid name Brandon Wood, who is their future at SS. Besides, I don't trust sending EVEN JK Ryu to Anaheim, because you know Bud Black would turn him into the next Scot Shields. I'm not saying they would give Aybar away, but I wouldn't EVEN consider Aybar for Pawelek, even if the Angels offer it. SS of Aybar's ability are EASIER to find, then young lefties of Pawelek's (or to a lesser degree Veal) ability. And EVEN if the Cubs offer Pawelek/JK Ryu for Aybar, (I would rather it be offer for Brandon Wood, anyways), the Cubs would grossly overpay for Aybar.

 

Aybar is NOT the next great SS, IMB, and I don't know why you are trying to hype him up.

[bmkhawk]

Quite a statement.

 

Especially considering you have no college or minor league statistics from Upton from which to draw upon. It seems a bit unfair to pit Young's statistics against an imaginary foe.

Just an opinion formed from the universal reactions of scouts who have watched Upton play. He's been under a microscope for years now and has impressed everyone who has reported upon seeing him play. Upton may not have yet played pro ball, but he's hardly imaginary.

 

Young has holes in his game that minor league pitchers have been able to exploit. He's a very good prospect and I think he'll be fine in the long run. But I have a theory that players with that kind of strikeout rate in the minors adapt more slowly when they hit the bigs.

 

No, Upton isn't imaginary. But it is unfair to Young that you point out what minor league pitchers have been able to exploit in his game when Upton has yet to have a chance to have any holes in his game be exploited (beyond high school pitchers...big whoop). It's almost like you are saying..."Upton won't get exploited as much as Young, trust me because the scouts say so." That assumption you are making certainly makes Upton's minor league numbers "imaginary", so to speak. I mean, I certainly don't disagree with your theory about strike out rates and how they may predict how quickly a player adjusts to the bigs, but you really have no way of knowing whether or not Upton is going to have high K rates through his stint in the minors either.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Quite a statement.

 

Especially considering you have no college or minor league statistics from Upton from which to draw upon. It seems a bit unfair to pit Young's statistics against an imaginary foe.

Just an opinion formed from the universal reactions of scouts who have watched Upton play. He's been under a microscope for years now and has impressed everyone who has reported upon seeing him play. Upton may not have yet played pro ball, but he's hardly imaginary.

 

Young has holes in his game that minor league pitchers have been able to exploit. He's a very good prospect and I think he'll be fine in the long run. But I have a theory that players with that kind of strikeout rate in the minors adapt more slowly when they hit the bigs.

 

No, Upton isn't imaginary. But it is unfair to Young that you point out what minor league pitchers have been able to exploit in his game when Upton has yet to have a chance to have any holes in his game be exploited (beyond high school pitchers...big whoop). It's almost like you are saying..."Upton won't get exploited as much as Young, trust me because the scouts say so." That assumption you are making certainly makes Upton's minor league numbers "imaginary", so to speak. I mean, I certainly don't disagree with your theory about strike out rates and how they may predict how quickly a player adjusts to the bigs, but you really have no way of knowing whether or not Upton is going to have high K rates through his stint in the minors either.

 

In the same way, it's unfair assume that Upton will have significant problems. That's the point. We know what Young's problem is, and Upton may or may not have it.

[bmkhawk]

It's still a leap of faith at this point in time to say that Upton will be a better major leaguer than Young...especially considering Upton has absolutely no college or minor league experience that has (at this point) lent us an indication of his performance past high school. That's my point.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

It's still a leap of faith at this point in time to say that Upton will be a better major leaguer than Young...especially considering Upton has absolutely no college or minor league experience that has (at this point) lent us an indication of his performance past high school. That's my point.

 

It's the opinion of most scouts (who've actually seen both players play).

[Outshined_One]

I think it's fair to question how good Justin Upton will be at the moment. Granted, scouts are drooling over how good of a player he could be if he reaches his ceiling (and justifiably so!), but sometimes all of the potential in the world doesn't mean anything if the guy can't produce at a high level. He's good enough top dominate high school baseball, but can he translate that success to pro ball? In that respect, I agree with the criticism of putting Upton at #2.

 

However, one of the key things in this whole process will be his likelihood of translating that potential into success. Some guys might have tremendous ceilings but need to make some major adjustments in order to make that ceiling a reality. Most scouts seem convinced that he has the makeup and available talent to do that. If that is indeed the case, putting him at #2 makes sense.

 

We'll see where he is a year from now. I'm skeptical of that ranking, but I think he has what it takes to prove the skeptics wrong.