BA's Top 100 Prospects

[CaliforniaRaisin]

51-100 is out, 1-50 out on Thursday.

 

Looks like the Cubs will have three prospects in the top 100 as Mark Pawelek is at 85 and Ronny Cedeno is at 94. BA pegs Pawelek's ETA as 2008. I'd guess Felix will be around 30.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The Dodgers have 9 out of the top 100, the Angels, Diamondbacks and Marlins each have 7. The Diamondbacks should have 5 of the top 50 and 6 of the top 67.

[Brian]

51-100 is out, 1-50 out on Thursday.

 

Looks like the Cubs will have three prospects in the top 100 as Mark Pawelek is at 85 and Ronny Cedeno is at 94. BA pegs Pawelek's ETA as 2008. I'd guess Felix will be around 30.

 

Gooz falls completely off??, nm didn't realize he was 88 last year, Dope's drop on the list is alot bigger (21 to off the list completely).

[Mizzou]

Do they not consider Murton a prospect, or are they just not that fond of him?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Do they not consider Murton a prospect, or are they just not that fond of him?

 

Murton isn't a prospect anymore per BA rules, he finished his rookie eligibility last year. But Hill and Cedeno are still considered prospects. Murton would definitely have been in their top 100 and probably just behind Felix in their Cubs' top 10 list.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

By the way, BA ranked the Cubs' farm system at #15 in MLB - after 5 straight years in the top 10 (and 2001-2003 they were in the top 3).

 

The NL Central:

 

Brewers: 4

Pirates: 19

Astros: 20

Cardinals: 21

Reds: 29

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

By the way, BA ranked the Cubs' farm system at #15 in MLB - after 5 straight years in the top 10 (and 2001-2003 they were in the top 3).

 

The NL Central:

 

Brewers: 4

Pirates: 19

Astros: 20

Cardinals: 21

Reds: 29

 

That's not good news for the Reds. Krivsky really has his work cut out for him.

[rawaction]

Why the Reds haven't traded players for prospects is beyond me. Seriously, what good are Griffey and Kearns doing them? Almost anyone can hit in that park, and for a lot less money. Bring up prospects, let them play. I can understand building around Dunn, Pena, and Lopez, but the rest of that team is expendable.

 

A team that is constantly in the bottom 1/3 of the league has no business with the 29th best farm system.

[craig]

I'd thought Rich Hill might make it in. Whatever.

[Jehrico]

I can't believe Cedeno is soooo far down the list, he almost didn't make it. They lose a little credibility in my book with that diss. Once he figured it out in AA, he hit well there, tore up AAA, and hit .300 in his limited first experience in the bigs. He plays a premium position, is excellent defensively, and is young for his progress. How can you put him that low? He should have been ahead of Pawalek, at least, and not far behind Pie, if you ask me.

[goonys evil twin]

I can't believe Cedeno is soooo far down the list, he almost didn't make it. They lose a little credibility in my book with that diss. Once he figured it out in AA, he hit well there, tore up AAA, and hit .300 in his limited first experience in the bigs. He plays a premium position, is excellent defensively, and is young for his progress. How can you put him that low? He should have been ahead of Pawalek, at least, and not far behind Pie, if you ask me.

 

I like Ronny, but I don't see the problem with rating him where they did, and I don't see it as a diss. He's sucked for most of his time as a pro. Yes, he did start to figure it out in AA, but he wasn't anything special after that year of improvement. It wasn't until this season that he did anything to merit mention as a top prospect, and you can't fault them for still holding doubt about a guy who has done it for just one year.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I can't believe Cedeno is soooo far down the list, he almost didn't make it. They lose a little credibility in my book with that diss. Once he figured it out in AA, he hit well there, tore up AAA, and hit .300 in his limited first experience in the bigs. He plays a premium position, is excellent defensively, and is young for his progress. How can you put him that low? He should have been ahead of Pawalek, at least, and not far behind Pie, if you ask me.

 

It's not that shocking since in the team-by-team rankings, Pawelek was ahead of Cedeno. The reason Cedeno is lower is because he doesn't have a long record of sustained success. On the other hand, Pawelek has a (much) higher ceiling. BA has always been enamored with the toolsier, higher-ceilinged player. I agree with the order they ranked Pie, Pawelek and Cedeno.

[Jehrico]

I can't believe Cedeno is soooo far down the list, he almost didn't make it. They lose a little credibility in my book with that diss. Once he figured it out in AA, he hit well there, tore up AAA, and hit .300 in his limited first experience in the bigs. He plays a premium position, is excellent defensively, and is young for his progress. How can you put him that low? He should have been ahead of Pawalek, at least, and not far behind Pie, if you ask me.

 

It's not that shocking since in the team-by-team rankings, Pawelek was ahead of Cedeno. The reason Cedeno is lower is because he doesn't have a long record of sustained success while Pawelek has a higher ceiling. BA is always enamored with the toolsier, higher-ceilinged player. I agree with the order they ranked Pie, Pawelek and Cedeno.

 

That doesn't completely explain it though...If BA is more enamored with toolsier guys, that was always Cedeno until he hit AA. He was a young guy in his leagues who was a stud defensively but hadn't figured it out offensively. He always fit the toolsy high ceiling description until he found success at AA and up.

[goonys evil twin]

I can't believe Cedeno is soooo far down the list, he almost didn't make it. They lose a little credibility in my book with that diss. Once he figured it out in AA, he hit well there, tore up AAA, and hit .300 in his limited first experience in the bigs. He plays a premium position, is excellent defensively, and is young for his progress. How can you put him that low? He should have been ahead of Pawalek, at least, and not far behind Pie, if you ask me.

 

It's not that shocking since in the team-by-team rankings, Pawelek was ahead of Cedeno. The reason Cedeno is lower is because he doesn't have a long record of sustained success while Pawelek has a higher ceiling. BA is always enamored with the toolsier, higher-ceilinged player. I agree with the order they ranked Pie, Pawelek and Cedeno.

 

That doesn't completely explain it though...If BA is more enamored with toolsier guys, that was always Cedeno until he hit AA. He was a young guy in his leagues who was a stud defensively but hadn't figured it out offensively. He always fit the toolsy high ceiling description until he found success at AA and up.

 

I never heard Ronny talked about as a high ceiling toolsy guy.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I can't believe Cedeno is soooo far down the list, he almost didn't make it. They lose a little credibility in my book with that diss. Once he figured it out in AA, he hit well there, tore up AAA, and hit .300 in his limited first experience in the bigs. He plays a premium position, is excellent defensively, and is young for his progress. How can you put him that low? He should have been ahead of Pawalek, at least, and not far behind Pie, if you ask me.

 

It's not that shocking since in the team-by-team rankings, Pawelek was ahead of Cedeno. The reason Cedeno is lower is because he doesn't have a long record of sustained success while Pawelek has a higher ceiling. BA is always enamored with the toolsier, higher-ceilinged player. I agree with the order they ranked Pie, Pawelek and Cedeno.

 

That doesn't completely explain it though...If BA is more enamored with toolsier guys, that was always Cedeno until he hit AA. He was a young guy in his leagues who was a stud defensively but hadn't figured it out offensively. He always fit the toolsy high ceiling description until he found success at AA and up.

 

In terms of ceiling and tools, Cedeno isn't in Pawelek's league.

[Jehrico]

I can't believe Cedeno is soooo far down the list, he almost didn't make it. They lose a little credibility in my book with that diss. Once he figured it out in AA, he hit well there, tore up AAA, and hit .300 in his limited first experience in the bigs. He plays a premium position, is excellent defensively, and is young for his progress. How can you put him that low? He should have been ahead of Pawalek, at least, and not far behind Pie, if you ask me.

 

It's not that shocking since in the team-by-team rankings, Pawelek was ahead of Cedeno. The reason Cedeno is lower is because he doesn't have a long record of sustained success while Pawelek has a higher ceiling. BA is always enamored with the toolsier, higher-ceilinged player. I agree with the order they ranked Pie, Pawelek and Cedeno.

 

That doesn't completely explain it though...If BA is more enamored with toolsier guys, that was always Cedeno until he hit AA. He was a young guy in his leagues who was a stud defensively but hadn't figured it out offensively. He always fit the toolsy high ceiling description until he found success at AA and up.

 

In terms of ceiling and tools, Cedeno isn't in Pawelek's league.

 

Let me ask you this then: If Cedeno was on another team, would you trade Pawalek for him? I would in a heart beat. 18 yr old high ceiling high school pitchers are a dime a dozen, such a small percentage don't pan out. Cedeno is worth well more than Pawalek at this point in both of the players stages of development. Thus, I'd rank him quite a bit higher.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I can't believe Cedeno is soooo far down the list, he almost didn't make it. They lose a little credibility in my book with that diss. Once he figured it out in AA, he hit well there, tore up AAA, and hit .300 in his limited first experience in the bigs. He plays a premium position, is excellent defensively, and is young for his progress. How can you put him that low? He should have been ahead of Pawalek, at least, and not far behind Pie, if you ask me.

 

It's not that shocking since in the team-by-team rankings, Pawelek was ahead of Cedeno. The reason Cedeno is lower is because he doesn't have a long record of sustained success while Pawelek has a higher ceiling. BA is always enamored with the toolsier, higher-ceilinged player. I agree with the order they ranked Pie, Pawelek and Cedeno.

 

That doesn't completely explain it though...If BA is more enamored with toolsier guys, that was always Cedeno until he hit AA. He was a young guy in his leagues who was a stud defensively but hadn't figured it out offensively. He always fit the toolsy high ceiling description until he found success at AA and up.

 

In terms of ceiling and tools, Cedeno isn't in Pawelek's league.

 

Let me ask you this then: If Cedeno was on another team, would you trade Pawalek for him? I would in a heart beat. 18 yr old high ceiling high school pitchers are a dime a dozen, such a small percentage don't pan out. Cedeno is worth well more than Pawalek at this point in both of the players stages of development. Thus, I'd rank him quite a bit higher.

 

If that were the only basis of evaluating a prospect, the highest rated ones would be at AAA, then AA, etc. The point of evaluating and rating prospects is to determine which player is most likely to be the most successful in the big leagues. The prospects who are higher up the ladder are more likely to reach the big leagues than ones lower, but that doesn't mean they will be the better player in the big leagues. You have to account for the players ceiling, physical tools, ability and current production too. Otherwise, you're getting an incomplete picture. Of course, the question is how much do you weigh each of these categories.

 

There is no doubt Pawelek is less likely to become a big leaguer, let alone a starter, than Cedeno is. But I also believe Pawelek is more likely going to be a perrenial all star than Cedeno.

 

I wouldn't trade Pawelek for Cedeno. Let's not forget, there are still questions as to whether or not Cedeno can be a successful everyday major leaguer.

[Jehrico]

I can't believe Cedeno is soooo far down the list, he almost didn't make it. They lose a little credibility in my book with that diss. Once he figured it out in AA, he hit well there, tore up AAA, and hit .300 in his limited first experience in the bigs. He plays a premium position, is excellent defensively, and is young for his progress. How can you put him that low? He should have been ahead of Pawalek, at least, and not far behind Pie, if you ask me.

 

It's not that shocking since in the team-by-team rankings, Pawelek was ahead of Cedeno. The reason Cedeno is lower is because he doesn't have a long record of sustained success while Pawelek has a higher ceiling. BA is always enamored with the toolsier, higher-ceilinged player. I agree with the order they ranked Pie, Pawelek and Cedeno.

 

That doesn't completely explain it though...If BA is more enamored with toolsier guys, that was always Cedeno until he hit AA. He was a young guy in his leagues who was a stud defensively but hadn't figured it out offensively. He always fit the toolsy high ceiling description until he found success at AA and up.

 

In terms of ceiling and tools, Cedeno isn't in Pawelek's league.

 

Let me ask you this then: If Cedeno was on another team, would you trade Pawalek for him? I would in a heart beat. 18 yr old high ceiling high school pitchers are a dime a dozen, such a small percentage don't pan out. Cedeno is worth well more than Pawalek at this point in both of the players stages of development. Thus, I'd rank him quite a bit higher.

 

If that were the only basis of evaluating a prospect, the highest rated ones would be at AAA, then AA, etc. The point of evaluating and rating prospects is to determine which player is most likely to be the most successful in the big leagues. The prospects who are higher up the ladder are more likely to reach the big leagues than ones lower, but that doesn't mean they will be the better player in the big leagues. You have to account for the players ceiling, physical tools, ability and current production too. Otherwise, you're getting an incomplete picture. Of course, the question is how much do you weigh each of these categories.

 

There is no doubt Pawelek is less likely to become a big leaguer, let alone a starter, than Cedeno is. But I also believe Pawelek is more likely going to be a perrenial all star than Cedeno.

 

I wouldn't trade Pawelek for Cedeno. Let's not forget, there are still questions as to whether or not Cedeno can be a successful everyday major leaguer.

I understand how they rank prospects. But you're acting like Cedeno's ceiling is that of a utility guy, when it's more like potential all-star candidate, and he's ML ready now. This is the same guy that had everyone scratching their heads when Hendry put on the 40 man roster when he was what, 19 or 20, and not hitting well in Daytona? When he was put on the 40 man roster, that was because of his tools and ceiling, not because of his performance or proximaty to the bigs. In order for Pawalek to be rated higher while being so young and just beginning his minor league career, his ceiling would have to be more like that of a multi-Cy Young winner. I haven't seen him pitch nor do I know that much about him so I'm not going to dispute accounts of his ceiling, but that would be a huge assertion regardless. In my book, Pawalek = somewhat higher ceiling than Cedeno, while Cedeno = much higher likelihood of reaching his ceiling. I would trade Pawalek for Cedeno 7 days a week and twice on Sunday.

[rawaction]

I can't believe Cedeno is soooo far down the list, he almost didn't make it. They lose a little credibility in my book with that diss. Once he figured it out in AA, he hit well there, tore up AAA, and hit .300 in his limited first experience in the bigs. He plays a premium position, is excellent defensively, and is young for his progress. How can you put him that low? He should have been ahead of Pawalek, at least, and not far behind Pie, if you ask me.

 

It's not that shocking since in the team-by-team rankings, Pawelek was ahead of Cedeno. The reason Cedeno is lower is because he doesn't have a long record of sustained success while Pawelek has a higher ceiling. BA is always enamored with the toolsier, higher-ceilinged player. I agree with the order they ranked Pie, Pawelek and Cedeno.

 

That doesn't completely explain it though...If BA is more enamored with toolsier guys, that was always Cedeno until he hit AA. He was a young guy in his leagues who was a stud defensively but hadn't figured it out offensively. He always fit the toolsy high ceiling description until he found success at AA and up.

 

In terms of ceiling and tools, Cedeno isn't in Pawelek's league.

 

Let me ask you this then: If Cedeno was on another team, would you trade Pawalek for him? I would in a heart beat. 18 yr old high ceiling high school pitchers are a dime a dozen, such a small percentage don't pan out. Cedeno is worth well more than Pawalek at this point in both of the players stages of development. Thus, I'd rank him quite a bit higher.

 

If that were the only basis of evaluating a prospect, the highest rated ones would be at AAA, then AA, etc. The point of evaluating and rating prospects is to determine which player is most likely to be the most successful in the big leagues. The prospects who are higher up the ladder are more likely to reach the big leagues than ones lower, but that doesn't mean they will be the better player in the big leagues. You have to account for the players ceiling, physical tools, ability and current production too. Otherwise, you're getting an incomplete picture. Of course, the question is how much do you weigh each of these categories.

 

There is no doubt Pawelek is less likely to become a big leaguer, let alone a starter, than Cedeno is. But I also believe Pawelek is more likely going to be a perrenial all star than Cedeno.

 

I wouldn't trade Pawelek for Cedeno. Let's not forget, there are still questions as to whether or not Cedeno can be a successful everyday major leaguer.

I understand how they rank prospects. But you're acting like Cedeno's ceiling is that of a utility guy, when it's more like potential all-star candidate, and he's ML ready now. This is the same guy that had everyone scratching their heads when Hendry put on the 40 man roster when he was what, 19 or 20, and not hitting well in Daytona? When he was put on the 40 man roster, that was because of his tools and ceiling, not because of his performance or proximaty to the bigs. In order for Pawalek to be rated higher while being so young and just beginning his minor league career, his ceiling would have to be more like that of a multi-Cy Young winner. I haven't seen him pitch nor do I know that much about him so I'm not going to dispute accounts of his ceiling, but that would be a huge assertion regardless. In my book, Pawalek = somewhat higher ceiling than Cedeno, while Cedeno = much higher likelihood of reaching his ceiling. I would trade Pawalek for Cedeno 7 days a week and twice on Sunday.

 

Correct on Cedeno being more likely to reach his ceiling, of course he'll be a major leaguer this year, and Pawelek probably won't be til next decade. Not really a fair comparison.

 

And I don't think Ronny rates as an All-Star (of course, there isn't much at NL SS). He rates as an average-to-above average league SS. Similar to Julio Lugo, IMO. Pawelek's ceiling is of a #1 starter.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I can't believe Cedeno is soooo far down the list, he almost didn't make it. They lose a little credibility in my book with that diss. Once he figured it out in AA, he hit well there, tore up AAA, and hit .300 in his limited first experience in the bigs. He plays a premium position, is excellent defensively, and is young for his progress. How can you put him that low? He should have been ahead of Pawalek, at least, and not far behind Pie, if you ask me.

 

It's not that shocking since in the team-by-team rankings, Pawelek was ahead of Cedeno. The reason Cedeno is lower is because he doesn't have a long record of sustained success while Pawelek has a higher ceiling. BA is always enamored with the toolsier, higher-ceilinged player. I agree with the order they ranked Pie, Pawelek and Cedeno.

 

That doesn't completely explain it though...If BA is more enamored with toolsier guys, that was always Cedeno until he hit AA. He was a young guy in his leagues who was a stud defensively but hadn't figured it out offensively. He always fit the toolsy high ceiling description until he found success at AA and up.

 

In terms of ceiling and tools, Cedeno isn't in Pawelek's league.

 

Let me ask you this then: If Cedeno was on another team, would you trade Pawalek for him? I would in a heart beat. 18 yr old high ceiling high school pitchers are a dime a dozen, such a small percentage don't pan out. Cedeno is worth well more than Pawalek at this point in both of the players stages of development. Thus, I'd rank him quite a bit higher.

 

If that were the only basis of evaluating a prospect, the highest rated ones would be at AAA, then AA, etc. The point of evaluating and rating prospects is to determine which player is most likely to be the most successful in the big leagues. The prospects who are higher up the ladder are more likely to reach the big leagues than ones lower, but that doesn't mean they will be the better player in the big leagues. You have to account for the players ceiling, physical tools, ability and current production too. Otherwise, you're getting an incomplete picture. Of course, the question is how much do you weigh each of these categories.

 

There is no doubt Pawelek is less likely to become a big leaguer, let alone a starter, than Cedeno is. But I also believe Pawelek is more likely going to be a perrenial all star than Cedeno.

 

I wouldn't trade Pawelek for Cedeno. Let's not forget, there are still questions as to whether or not Cedeno can be a successful everyday major leaguer.

I understand how they rank prospects. But you're acting like Cedeno's ceiling is that of a utility guy, when it's more like potential all-star candidate, and he's ML ready now. This is the same guy that had everyone scratching their heads when Hendry put on the 40 man roster when he was what, 19 or 20, and not hitting well in Daytona? When he was put on the 40 man roster, that was because of his tools and ceiling, not because of his performance or proximaty to the bigs. In order for Pawalek to be rated higher while being so young and just beginning his minor league career, his ceiling would have to be more like that of a multi-Cy Young winner. I haven't seen him pitch nor do I know that much about him so I'm not going to dispute accounts of his ceiling, but that would be a huge assertion regardless. In my book, Pawalek = somewhat higher ceiling than Cedeno, while Cedeno = much higher likelihood of reaching his ceiling. I would trade Pawalek for Cedeno 7 days a week and twice on Sunday.

 

Correct on Cedeno being more likely to reach his ceiling, of course he'll be a major leaguer this year, and Pawelek probably won't be til next decade. Not really a fair comparison.

 

And I don't think Ronny rates as an All-Star (of course, there isn't much at NL SS). He rates as an average-to-above average league SS. Similar to Julio Lugo, IMO. Pawelek's ceiling is of a #1 starter.

 

I agree. Who would you rank higher?

[craig]

Jehrico, I'm in your camp on this one. Cedeno's a guy who has a wide-open opportunity to be a starting player, who's defensive tools are excellent, who's young enough to have improvement ahead, and who's handled himself well in a limited but not totally small 81-AB debut. His hitting in PCL and winter league suggest his Cub thing isn't total fluke.

 

There are only a few good-hitting SS's. Cedeno's got a clear shot to start, and has all the tools to be an above-average SS, potentially well above average. Are there 90 guys who are more likely to be above-average, asset big-league starters than Cedeno? I don't think so.

 

I think it's a ceiling thing. Cedeno has a good chance to be a very solid, above-average big-league SS. But his power and speed don't give him any chance to win an MVP. Pawelek may have a much lesser chance of ever being a solid, above-average big-league starter. But he has a teensy but not zero chance (maybe 0.5% or something?) of becoming a Cy Young caliber pitcher.

 

I think that's why he gets more value.

 

Personally I'd trade a Pawelek for a guy with a good chance to be a solid starter immediately, and a reasonable chance to become an above-average asset starter. So I'd definitely value guys like Cedeno and Murton ahead of Pawalek.

 

Is that just giving more value to AA/AAA guys? Well, sure... if they are good ones. If a guy has gotten to AA/AAA and shown that he's got the goods to be a solid, no-deadly-flaw starter, and a solid chance to be a quality asset starter, well of course I'm going to rank them ahead of a kid with 20 pro innings who, by the time he may be ready for the bigs, may not have either above average control (who knows?) or an above-aerage arm. (More bonus babies lose arm greatness than increase it as they go through the system..)

 

All that said, it's neat that BA thinks highly enough of Pawelek's stuff to figure he's worth that high a listing. It's exciting to think of having a player who maybe might not only stay healthy but add additional velocity, as projected. Or a guy whose life and personality might make him special. There may be a hundred guys like that, but there weren't a hundred that BA ranked as high as they did Pawelek. Maybe we're due to get lucky and have a high-ceiling guy pan out. That would be really cool.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Felix Pie is #27, Delmon Young is #1.

 

Actually, the DBacks have 6 in the top 32.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/060223top100c.html

 

Live chat with Jim Callis tomorrow at 2 pm ET.

[rawaction]

Amazing talent on the left side of the IF. Wow. 11 of the top 30 either SS or 3B.

[snoodmonger]

I'd need to see how Paws pitches in the minors before I'd consider trading him for Ronny. From what I've read, I've got very high hopes for Pawelek.

[Jehrico]

Interesting article on Cedeno

 

http://www.dailysouthtown.com/southtown/dssports/pro/231sd3.htm

 

Cedeno hit a combined .211 over three years in the A Ball leagues before linking up with Von Joshua in AA in '04. Little bet Von Joshua a steak dinner that he'd never hit over .230, but Von Joshua said all along he had the tools to be a very good hitter. It explains a couple of tweaks that Von Joshua made with his stance and his approach that turned him around in '04. Cedeno responded by hitting .274 in AA, and .355 in AAA (and of course, .300 in his first 81 ABs at the ML level).

 

We need this guy up here instead of Clines.

 

This article backs up why I think he's got All-Star potential...he's got the tools, he just needed someone to tell him what he was doing wrong when he was in A ball. He's got a quick swing, strong forearms and wrists, and is very coachable. That's why I feel confident he's going to continue to hit at this level.

 

Anyone wanna bet a steak dinner over it?