Time to get behind who we have??

[sethuel1]

Calling BK. We need you to apply exactly the same stats as you did for the hitters, but in reverse, in order to show that the "Farnsworth can't pitch in pressure situations" myth is exactly that. You know, like you just did for the "Walker can only hit when the bases are empty" myth.

I'm on it. I'll try to get Farns' numbers back to 2003 posted some time this evening.

 

Sweet. Who should we compare him to? i think he'd stand up pretty well even against some of the better closers like Lidge and Wagner, but I still don't think that's a tremendously fair comparison. We could compare him to "tried and true" set-up men like Flash Gordon, Eyre, Howry, and Tim Worrell....

 

I'd also like to pull in some of the new, more talented bullpen guys coming up like K-Rod and Francisco Cordero.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

We could compare him to "tried and true" set-up men like Flash Gordon, Eyre, Howry, and Tim Worrell....

 

I'd also like to pull in some of the new, more talented bullpen guys coming up like K-Rod and Francisco Cordero.

 

Bob's spittin' fire right now...

[Andy]

I do agree with Soccer on one point regarding Farnsworth. I never felt all that comfortable when he was in the game, knowing that at any time he might fire six or seven consecutive balls. Then again, the only two relief pitchers of the last three seasons that I felt good about having in the game were Borowski in 03 and Dempster in 05, so my expectations were pretty high.

[goonys evil twin]

I do agree with Soccer on one point regarding Farnsworth. I never felt all that comfortable when he was in the game, knowing that at any time he might fire six or seven consecutive balls. Then again, the only two relief pitchers of the last three seasons that I felt good about having in the game were Borowski in 03 and Dempster in 05, so my expectations were pretty high.

 

I felt very comfortable with Farns in the seasons he was very good, and nervous in the years he was bad.

 

But "feeling comfortable" is just a personal bias and doesn't mean a thing in real evaluation.

[Gunned]

If a team has huge expectations placed on it before the season starts then after every two game losing streak the team gets bombarded by questions. What is wrong with the team? Who isn't performing? What do you need to do better to win tomorrow? What positions need to be upgraded?

 

Eventually players get sick and tired of hearing the same questions over and over and over again. Players do read newspapers and watch SportsCenter and hear their names as trade bait and how they aren't playing very well. These types of things can wear down on the team.

 

You're right, the Yankees and Red Sox always collapse under the weight of huge expectations and miss the playoffs.

[Guest]

Sweet. Who should we compare him to? i think he'd stand up pretty well even against some of the better closers like Lidge and Wagner, but I still don't think that's a tremendously fair comparison. We could compare him to "tried and true" set-up men like Flash Gordon, Eyre, Howry, and Tim Worrell....

 

I'd also like to pull in some of the new, more talented bullpen guys coming up like K-Rod and Francisco Cordero.

 

Some numbers from 2005: (Pitcher: RSAA, ΔRE)

 

Farnsworth: 16.0, 18.8

Lidge: 15.8, 16.4

Rivera: 25.4, 28.7

Eyre: 12.7, 26.0

Wagner: 24.1, 24.0

K-Rod: 12.2, 13.6

Gordon: 18.2, 9.8

Dempster: 12.0, 12.4

 

As you can see, most of these reliever's change in run expectancy was pretty close to their RSAA. (Where RSAA was league ERA-player ERA * (IP/9).) Still, Farnsworth looks to have performed a bit better in high leverage situations as his ΔRE was a few runs better than his RSAA. The only real outliers of this group are Eyre and Gordon. Eyre never seemed to give up a hit with someone on base, while Gordon seemed to enjoy padding opposing batters' RBI totals.

[sethuel1]

Sweet. Who should we compare him to? i think he'd stand up pretty well even against some of the better closers like Lidge and Wagner, but I still don't think that's a tremendously fair comparison. We could compare him to "tried and true" set-up men like Flash Gordon, Eyre, Howry, and Tim Worrell....

 

I'd also like to pull in some of the new, more talented bullpen guys coming up like K-Rod and Francisco Cordero.

 

Some numbers from 2005: (Pitcher: RSAA, ΔRE)

 

Farnsworth: 16.0, 18.8

Lidge: 15.8, 16.4

Rivera: 25.4, 28.7

Eyre: 12.7, 26.0

Wagner: 24.1, 24.0

K-Rod: 12.2, 13.6

Gordon: 18.2, 9.8

Dempster: 12.0, 12.4

 

As you can see, most of these reliever's change in run expectancy was pretty close to their RSAA. (Where RSAA was league ERA-player ERA * (IP/9).) Still, Farnsworth looks to have performed a bit better in high leverage situations as his ΔRE was a few runs better than his RSAA. The only real outliers of this group are Eyre and Gordon. Eyre never seemed to give up a hit with someone on base, while Gordon seemed to enjoy padding opposing batters' RBI totals.

 

Fantastic! Fantastic, fantastic, fantastic.

 

i tell ya though, i still get a feeling in my left kidney....

[soccer10k]

My point with comparing this team to the 2003 team was that the 2003 had a bunch of questions just like the 2006 team does. As I said before, nobody though the Cubs had a chance to make the postseason because of all of those question marks. Did anybody know that they were going to trade for Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton in the middle of the season? No. But those two players made a huge difference on a team that was already exceeding expectations. Hendry might make a big impact move at the trading deadline this year as well. Did anybody expect Mark Prior to win 18 games AND finish third in the Cy Young voting? No. If Prior and Wood can stay healthy, which I know is a long shot, the Cubs can win the NL Central. Carlos Zambrano is a better pitcher than he was in 2003. Greg Maddux can put up the same stats as Matt Clement from 2003. And I would much rather have Glendon Rusch than Shawn Estes as my fifth starter.

 

For the bullpen, Ryan Dempster's ERA in 2005 was half a run higher than Borowski's in 2003 but converted just as many saves in two less chances. Add in additions Bobby Howry and Scott Eyre as well as returners Will Ohman and Michael Wuertz and the Cubs have a decent bullpen.

 

Am I expecting them to win a World Series? No. Would I be surprised if they made the playoffs? No. Would I be surprised if they finished with a losing record? No. I can't predict how these Cubs will do. All I'm trying to say that if this team plays well and avoids major injuries, they could easily make a run to the postseason.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Sweet. Who should we compare him to? i think he'd stand up pretty well even against some of the better closers like Lidge and Wagner, but I still don't think that's a tremendously fair comparison. We could compare him to "tried and true" set-up men like Flash Gordon, Eyre, Howry, and Tim Worrell....

 

I'd also like to pull in some of the new, more talented bullpen guys coming up like K-Rod and Francisco Cordero.

 

Some numbers from 2005: (Pitcher: RSAA, ΔRE)

 

Farnsworth: 16.0, 18.8

Lidge: 15.8, 16.4

Rivera: 25.4, 28.7

Eyre: 12.7, 26.0

Wagner: 24.1, 24.0

K-Rod: 12.2, 13.6

Gordon: 18.2, 9.8

Dempster: 12.0, 12.4

 

As you can see, most of these reliever's change in run expectancy was pretty close to their RSAA. (Where RSAA was league ERA-player ERA * (IP/9).) Still, Farnsworth looks to have performed a bit better in high leverage situations as his ΔRE was a few runs better than his RSAA. The only real outliers of this group are Eyre and Gordon. Eyre never seemed to give up a hit with someone on base, while Gordon seemed to enjoy padding opposing batters' RBI totals.

 

jeebers, that's awesome

[badger1679666666]

I thought Farnsworth was a gutless choking dog? Wasn't that estabilished last summer?

[USSoccer]

I thought Farnsworth was a gutless choking dog? Wasn't that estabilished last summer?

 

I'm pretty sure it was around the same time that it was discovered that Todd Walker can't turn DP's, and that Grudz was a striped bass.

[CubfaninCA]

The offense was 23 runs out of 6th. Replacing Patterson with Pierre should make a huge difference, and help make this offense above average.

 

People got all worked up cause Hendry hasn't built a roster that guarantees being a contender. Only 3-4 teams are guaranteed contenders though. The Cubs are in the next tier. Pick up someone like Abreu at the trade deadline & the Cubs are right there with the Yankees, Red Sox & Cards.

[USSoccer]

The offense was 23 runs out of 6th. Replacing Patterson with Pierre should make a huge difference, and help make this offense above average.

 

People got all worked up cause Hendry hasn't built a roster that guarantees being a contender. Only 3-4 teams are guaranteed contenders though. The Cubs are in the next tier. Pick up someone like Abreu at the trade deadline & the Cubs are right there with the Yankees, Red Sox & Cards.

 

I think that Pierre makes them at least average, but I'm not sure if it makes them a lock to be above average.

 

No matter what, this season comes down to pitching. If they have good starting pitching, they can get away with having a league average offense. If they have injuries and erratic performance from Wood and Prior, respectively, and Maddux continues to stagnate, we will finish .500 unless EVERYONE on the offense has a career year.

 

My personal preference would have been to make sure your offense is a lock to be top 5 in the NL, and that way you can offset the inevtiable injuries/ineffectiveness of at least one of your starters. But that's not how it worked out, so we'll see what happens.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I thought Farnsworth was a gutless choking dog? Wasn't that estabilished last summer?

 

I'm pretty sure it was around the same time that it was discovered that Todd Walker can't turn DP's, and that Grudz was a striped bass.

 

Grudz wasn't the stripped bass; he was Dusty's girlfriend. Mark Prior plays the trombone, however.

[USSoccer]

I thought Farnsworth was a gutless choking dog? Wasn't that estabilished last summer?

 

I'm pretty sure it was around the same time that it was discovered that Todd Walker can't turn DP's, and that Grudz was a striped bass.

 

Grudz wasn't the stripped bass; he was Dusty's girlfriend. Mark Prior plays the trombone, however.

 

In Rubby's band?

[UK1679666180]

The offense was 23 runs out of 6th. Replacing Patterson with Pierre should make a huge difference, and help make this offense above average.

 

People got all worked up cause Hendry hasn't built a roster that guarantees being a contender. Only 3-4 teams are guaranteed contenders though. The Cubs are in the next tier. Pick up someone like Abreu at the trade deadline & the Cubs are right there with the Yankees, Red Sox & Cards.

 

I think that Pierre makes them at least average, but I'm not sure if it makes them a lock to be above average.

 

No matter what, this season comes down to pitching. If they have good starting pitching, they can get away with having a league average offense. If they have injuries and erratic performance from Wood and Prior, respectively, and Maddux continues to stagnate, we will finish .500 unless EVERYONE on the offense has a career year.

 

My personal preference would have been to make sure your offense is a lock to be top 5 in the NL, and that way you can offset the inevtiable injuries/ineffectiveness of at least one of your starters. But that's not how it worked out, so we'll see what happens.

 

You really can't prepare for injuries to a rotation besides acquiring a swingman, which is suited for someone like Rusch. What you can do is be careful with your starting pitchers and not overwork them leading to fatigue and eventually injuries. That's even before considering the possibility of a fluke injury like Prior or Lieber spraining his ankle crossing home.

[USSoccer]

The offense was 23 runs out of 6th. Replacing Patterson with Pierre should make a huge difference, and help make this offense above average.

 

People got all worked up cause Hendry hasn't built a roster that guarantees being a contender. Only 3-4 teams are guaranteed contenders though. The Cubs are in the next tier. Pick up someone like Abreu at the trade deadline & the Cubs are right there with the Yankees, Red Sox & Cards.

 

I think that Pierre makes them at least average, but I'm not sure if it makes them a lock to be above average.

 

No matter what, this season comes down to pitching. If they have good starting pitching, they can get away with having a league average offense. If they have injuries and erratic performance from Wood and Prior, respectively, and Maddux continues to stagnate, we will finish .500 unless EVERYONE on the offense has a career year.

 

My personal preference would have been to make sure your offense is a lock to be top 5 in the NL, and that way you can offset the inevtiable injuries/ineffectiveness of at least one of your starters. But that's not how it worked out, so we'll see what happens.

 

You really can't prepare for injuries to a rotation besides acquiring a swingman, which is suited for someone like Rusch. What you can do is be careful with your starting pitchers and not overwork them leading to fatigue and eventually injuries. That's even before considering the possibility of a fluke injury like Prior or Lieber spraining his ankle crossing home.

 

You don't think that having a better offense would mean the Cubs could sustain an injury more easily that the current team would?

[neely crenshaw]

ripping your gm for doing very little does mena you do not support the team. i wan t the cubs to win. i hope i am wrong! i don't wan tus to lose so dusty doesn't comeback but i am still very pissed that hendry has wasted the last 3 years(including this 1) when we had a serious chance to compete for the first time in my 40 years. also i truly worry that we have blown our window of oppurtunity and that if we do not win in this great cycle of pitching we will never win in my lifetime!

but i hope every player has a career year but i think we all have a idea where this season is heading....

[UK1679666180]

Who said that it wouldn't help having an improved offense?

 

For the Cubs, their success will likely be determined by the health of their rotation and bullpen. If they have same pitching results as last year, any offense improvement might get them to 81-82 wins instead of 79.

 

To ensure better health, they have to do a better job of putting the pitchers in the position of most likely to stay healthy. That includes monitoring workloads better (with the rotation and pen), Rothschild has to do a better job of fixing faulty mechanics, etc.

 

Chalking up most pitching injuries to bad luck is just the same as blaming it on the goat.

[CuseCubFan69]

Who said that it wouldn't help having an improved offense?

 

For the Cubs, their success will likely be determined by the health of their rotation and bullpen. If they have same pitching results as last year, any offense improvement might get them to 81-82 wins instead of 79.

 

To ensure better health, they have to do a better job of putting the pitchers in the position of most likely to stay healthy. That includes monitoring workloads better (with the rotation and pen), Rothschild has to do a better job of fixing faulty mechanics, etc.

 

Chalking up most pitching injuries to bad luck is just the same as blaming it on the goat.

 

So you're admitting that a goat is to blame for the injuries? I wonder which writer (Trib or Sun) will quote that last statement just the way I wrote it? :D

 

IMO, you need 7 solid starters, one as a swing and a guy you can call up to give you some quaity innings as a 5th starter. If Rusch can give some quality innings and if a Guzman or another young guy could step up I think the Cubs will have a decent chance to compete.

 

I still think Jones is the key in the lineup. If everyone else has their average career and Jones has a career year they have a very nice chance. That 5th slot really worries me unless Baker does rotate Murton and Jones.

Edited February 9, 2006 by CuseCubFan69

[goonys evil twin]

I still think Jones is the key in the lineup. If everyone else has their average career and Jones has a career year they have a very nice chance.

 

Not exactly.

 

Lee's average career numbers, .276 .363 .501, Ramrirez's average, .277 .329 .481, and Barrett's average, .263 .320 .420, would all be major disappointments. Jones would have to have a Bonds like career year to make up for those declines from 2005.

[UK1679666180]

IMO, you need 7 solid starters, one as a swing and a guy you can call up to give you some quaity innings as a 5th starter. If Rusch can give some quality innings and if a Guzman or another young guy could step up I think the Cubs will have a decent chance to compete.

 

You do need 7 avail. starters w/2 of those able to be somewhat productive as injury replacement, one of those (Rusch) would be in the bullpen as a long reliever/swingman and the other would be in the Iowa rotation.

 

I still feel at various points, that each starter should skip two starts during the year by Rusch during the dog days of Summer and to get them ready for the stretch run.

 

While Rothschild (not Baker) should use his eyes to monitor the pitcher's fatigue, around 110-115, they should put serious thought into who'll be ready from the pen.

[CuseCubFan69]

I still think Jones is the key in the lineup. If everyone else has their average career and Jones has a career year they have a very nice chance.

 

Not exactly.

 

Lee's average career numbers, .276 .363 .501, Ramrirez's average, .277 .329 .481, and Barrett's average, .263 .320 .420, would all be major disappointments. Jones would have to have a Bonds like career year to make up for those declines from 2005.

 

I don't see a 280/365 for Lee as that much of a reach or a ARam 280/330. Again, being around the average would be fine with these guys as they enter their peek years they should add a little more to their numbers but I still think the Cubs will be fine if they stay around those numbers.

 

I think what will important is when they are hot and when they are not. If both guys are hot at the same time and cool down at the same time Jones is going to have to pick it up when they are not but he doesn't have to have a Bonds like year. All these numbers are fine when you look at them after the season but didn't ARam struggle big time in the beginning last year while Lee was on fire? What I want is for someone...anyone to pick this team up when it's needed. I'm not talking about clutch hitting but having a guy that has his day when it's needed to pull a game out. Yeah, you need good hitters and that's the thing that wins games over the course of the season and the averages are with you with more quality hitters in your lineup. IMO, it's the different hero each day is what makes the extra difference to win 5 to 7 more games.

[CuseCubFan69]

IMO, you need 7 solid starters, one as a swing and a guy you can call up to give you some quaity innings as a 5th starter. If Rusch can give some quality innings and if a Guzman or another young guy could step up I think the Cubs will have a decent chance to compete.

 

You do need 7 avail. starters w/2 of those able to be somewhat productive as injury replacement, one of those (Rusch) would be in the bullpen as a long reliever/swingman and the other would be in the Iowa rotation.

 

I still feel at various points, that each starter should skip two starts during the year by Rusch during the dog days of Summer and to get them ready for the stretch run.

 

While Rothschild (not Baker) should use his eyes to monitor the pitcher's fatigue, around 110-115, they should put serious thought into who'll be ready from the pen.

 

I still wonder about this Rothchild/Baker relationship and how they communicate when a pitcher is fatigued. I'm also curious on how well Rothchild recoginizes a fatigued pitcher.

[UK1679666180]

IMO, you need 7 solid starters, one as a swing and a guy you can call up to give you some quaity innings as a 5th starter. If Rusch can give some quality innings and if a Guzman or another young guy could step up I think the Cubs will have a decent chance to compete.

 

You do need 7 avail. starters w/2 of those able to be somewhat productive as injury replacement, one of those (Rusch) would be in the bullpen as a long reliever/swingman and the other would be in the Iowa rotation.

 

I still feel at various points, that each starter should skip two starts during the year by Rusch during the dog days of Summer and to get them ready for the stretch run.

 

While Rothschild (not Baker) should use his eyes to monitor the pitcher's fatigue, around 110-115, they should put serious thought into who'll be ready from the pen.

 

I still wonder about this Rothchild/Baker relationship and how they communicate when a pitcher is fatigued. I'm also curious on how well Rothchild recoginizes a fatigued pitcher.

 

Just remember watching Zambrano as he was getting closer to 140 pitches. He was out of gas, every pitch was up, his arm slot/elbow was down (elbow below the shoulder), rushing his pitches, and taking too much time between his pitches.

 

He had to have seen it, not sure what happened after that as far as Rothschild/Pole telling Baker or what not and then maybe trying to squeeze as much as out of him as possible.