Three Words: PE-CO-TA (Player Projections)

[CubinNY]

Also, I've argued in several other threads that Maddux is better than Williams and will have a better year in 2006 than Williams (with much dispute from others), and it is nice to see several "professional" sources make the same prediction.

 

I think that sources prediction was a bit unrealistic, expecting improvement out of a pitcher Maddux's age. But he's going to have a better year if only because he'll be given a spot all year long, while Williams will have to unfairly battle with Rusch for time.

 

The key for Maddux is to keep that HR total down. The control is still there, but that HR total doubled from career norms in the 2003-2005 timespan.

 

[edit - I mean doubled per year, not doubled the career total]

 

BTW - Didn't the Bill James endorsed pitching prediction give Maddux a similar 2006 line?

 

I wouldn't get too excited about any PECOTA predictions on pitching. They are not accurate, historically. They have very little predictive validity, a correlation of about .4 which is very weak.

 

I don't know how you can say Maddux still has the control when he gave up taters like he did last year.

 

He gave up the home run because he was missing his spots but his pitch stayed in the hitting zone and got thwacked, especially up in the zone.

 

If Williams is given consistent starts I expect he will have a better ERA then Maddux.

[goonys evil twin]

Also, I've argued in several other threads that Maddux is better than Williams and will have a better year in 2006 than Williams (with much dispute from others), and it is nice to see several "professional" sources make the same prediction.

 

I think that sources prediction was a bit unrealistic, expecting improvement out of a pitcher Maddux's age. But he's going to have a better year if only because he'll be given a spot all year long, while Williams will have to unfairly battle with Rusch for time.

 

The key for Maddux is to keep that HR total down. The control is still there, but that HR total doubled from career norms in the 2003-2005 timespan.

 

[edit - I mean doubled per year, not doubled the career total]

 

BTW - Didn't the Bill James endorsed pitching prediction give Maddux a similar 2006 line?

 

I have to disagree about Maddux's control. His lack of control is exactly why the HR have gone up, and why he's so less effective. His success was based on pinpoint accuracy, and he can no longer hit that pin. He's still got better control than most, but not enough to prevent the inevitable late career decline.

[TheDude]

I don't know how you can say Maddux still has the control when he gave up taters like he did last year.

 

He gave up the home run because he was missing his spots but his pitch stayed in the hitting zone and got thwacked, especially up in the zone.

 

If Williams is given consistent starts I expect he will have a better ERA then Maddux.

 

I can say Maddux's control is still there because the walk total is the same and he still gets a healthy number of strikeouts his way. By the way, the HR total is too high (as I already stated), but I don't attribute it all to loss of control - umps have taken back some of the generous zone he had in the 90's and the division has been/is full of sluggers and small/hitters ball parks.

 

And ERA is the least of the critical pitching stats that matter. There isn't statistical evidence to support the claim that Williams is better unless you predict Williams growth and Maddux decline. Maddux has been steady at his declined value from career norms for three years now. It suddenly won't just fall apart.

 

So Williams will have to get significantly better, particularly with regards to k/walk ratio. I hope you're right, but I wouldn't put money on it.

[CubinNY]

I don't know how you can say Maddux still has the control when he gave up taters like he did last year.

 

He gave up the home run because he was missing his spots but his pitch stayed in the hitting zone and got thwacked, especially up in the zone.

 

If Williams is given consistent starts I expect he will have a better ERA then Maddux.

 

I can say Maddux's control is still there because the walk total is the same and he still gets a healthy number of strikeouts his way. By the way, the HR total is too high (as I already stated), but I don't attribute it all to loss of control - umps have taken back some of the generous zone he had in the 90's and the division has been/is full of sluggers and small/hitters ball parks.

 

And ERA is the least of the critical pitching stats that matter. There isn't statistical evidence to support the claim that Williams is better unless you predict Williams growth and Maddux decline. Maddux has been steady at his declined value from career norms for three years now. It suddenly won't just fall apart.

 

So Williams will have to get significantly better, particularly with regards to k/walk ratio. I hope you're right, but I wouldn't put money on it.

 

You win, I don't know where to begin.

[UK1679666180]

Maddux has similar control as he always has had, he doesn't have the same command as he did. When pitching on the outside corner and you miss by 6 inches, it's better to throw it 6 inches further outside than 6 towards the heart of the plate.

 

Many of his HRs last year were caused by missing his spots in the zone, same with Prior.

[wade]

Maddux has similar control as he always has had, he doesn't have the same command as he did. When pitching on the outside corner and you miss by 6 inches, it's better to throw it 6 inches further outside than 6 towards the heart of the plate.

 

Many of his HRs last year were caused by missing his spots in the zone, same with Prior.

 

In your opinion, is he getting squeezed sometimes and overcorrecting by coming back to much over the plate, or has he just lost some of the touch?

 

I ask because many games last year were a battle of wills between him and the ump. If Maddux could keep nipping at the outside (to a right hander) and get the ump to give it to him early it seemed like he would be in for a good outing.

[chopsx9]

I am cautiously optimistic about Maddux this year. I commented last year that I thought he needed to do more conditioning in the offseason. He has never relied on strength and power to get the job done, but now that he is older I think he could benefit from extra conditioning. He has apparently worked out with a trainer this off season so, again, I am cautiously optimistic.

 

A few have stated that Lee will almost certainly hit .300 again. I hope so, but I’m not as convinced as some. I think I need to see one more season of elevated production (not necessarily at the heights of last year) to become a convert. I keep coming back to his career avg in the .260’s prior to last year. Don’t get me wrong I hope he has turned a corner (The 2006 team is going to need it!!) but I need some more proof.

[UK1679666180]

Maddux has similar control as he always has had, he doesn't have the same command as he did. When pitching on the outside corner and you miss by 6 inches, it's better to throw it 6 inches further outside than 6 towards the heart of the plate.

 

Many of his HRs last year were caused by missing his spots in the zone, same with Prior.

 

In your opinion, is he getting squeezed sometimes and overcorrecting by coming back to much over the plate, or has he just lost some of the touch?

 

I ask because many games last year were a battle of wills between him and the ump. If Maddux could keep nipping at the outside (to a right hander) and get the ump to give it to him early it seemed like he would be in for a good outing.

 

I don't think Maddux was squeezed more than any other pitcher. He just had too much of the plate on pitches that were meant for the corners. When that happens, you'll see higher HR ratios as well as H/IP.

[cjbucks]

Also, I've argued in several other threads that Maddux is better than Williams and will have a better year in 2006 than Williams (with much dispute from others), and it is nice to see several "professional" sources make the same prediction.

 

I think that sources prediction was a bit unrealistic, expecting improvement out of a pitcher Maddux's age. But he's going to have a better year if only because he'll be given a spot all year long, while Williams will have to unfairly battle with Rusch for time.

 

The key for Maddux is to keep that HR total down. The control is still there, but that HR total doubled from career norms in the 2003-2005 timespan.

 

[edit - I mean doubled per year, not doubled the career total]

 

BTW - Didn't the Bill James endorsed pitching prediction give Maddux a similar 2006 line?

 

Correct me if i'm wrong but the pitching predictions are in the Bill James abstract but i don't believe he endorsed them. I believe he said it couldn't be done so other members of his staff did them.

[CarolinaCubFan]

Maddux has similar control as he always has had, he doesn't have the same command as he did. When pitching on the outside corner and you miss by 6 inches, it's better to throw it 6 inches further outside than 6 towards the heart of the plate.

 

Many of his HRs last year were caused by missing his spots in the zone, same with Prior.

 

In your opinion, is he getting squeezed sometimes and overcorrecting by coming back to much over the plate, or has he just lost some of the touch?

 

I ask because many games last year were a battle of wills between him and the ump. If Maddux could keep nipping at the outside (to a right hander) and get the ump to give it to him early it seemed like he would be in for a good outing.

 

I don't think Maddux was squeezed more than any other pitcher. He just had too much of the plate on pitches that were meant for the corners. When that happens, you'll see higher HR ratios as well as H/IP.

 

Hey UK, I agree with your assesment. I've only seen Maddux's conditioning mentioned once though. Greg pitched like a 40 year old when he was just getting his start, power pitching hasn't ever been a part of his game. Saying that, I personally feel Maddux could pitch into his mid 40's with success.

 

If Maddux has truley worked hard on his conditioning, I think he could suprise a lot of us.

[TheDude]

BTW - Didn't the Bill James endorsed pitching prediction give Maddux a similar 2006 line?

 

Correct me if i'm wrong but the pitching predictions are in the Bill James abstract but i don't believe he endorsed them. I believe he said it couldn't be done so other members of his staff did them.

 

You're right, it was the abstract. Whether he explicitly endorsed them I don't know, but in my world, when your name is on the product, then you endorse it by default.

[UK1679666180]

Maddux has similar control as he always has had, he doesn't have the same command as he did. When pitching on the outside corner and you miss by 6 inches, it's better to throw it 6 inches further outside than 6 towards the heart of the plate.

 

Many of his HRs last year were caused by missing his spots in the zone, same with Prior.

 

In your opinion, is he getting squeezed sometimes and overcorrecting by coming back to much over the plate, or has he just lost some of the touch?

 

I ask because many games last year were a battle of wills between him and the ump. If Maddux could keep nipping at the outside (to a right hander) and get the ump to give it to him early it seemed like he would be in for a good outing.

 

I don't think Maddux was squeezed more than any other pitcher. He just had too much of the plate on pitches that were meant for the corners. When that happens, you'll see higher HR ratios as well as H/IP.

 

Hey UK, I agree with your assesment. I've only seen Maddux's conditioning mentioned once though. Greg pitched like a 40 year old when he was just getting his start, power pitching hasn't ever been a part of his game. Saying that, I personally feel Maddux could pitch into his mid 40's with success.

 

If Maddux has truley worked hard on his conditioning, I think he could suprise a lot of us.

 

With Maddux, I'm not sure how of an improvement you'll see, rather if he'll be able to throw 90+ pitches more often. Is working himself into better shape to try and improve his velocity/movement? Or, is he trying to improve his ability to stay fresh longer?

 

I'm not sure how much someone his age can improve his velocity or movement compared to trying to stretch his outings.

 

I don't think the decline of Maddux has been b/c lack of conditioning.

[Ender]

PECOTA is better than most sources at judging pitching, definitely better than ZIPs. Its just that pitchers are incredibly unreliable in general so no system can do a great job with them.

[CubDad4Ever]

UK, with all the worries (some rightly so) for strict stat age related losses on Pecota , how does Roger Clemens defy the norms so much. I appreciate your level headed analysis thats why im asking. He truly amazes me. Gods Peace Coach L.

[Rob]

UK, with all the worries (some rightly so) for strict stat age related losses on Pecota , how does Roger Clemens defy the norms so much. I appreciate your level headed analysis thats why im asking. He truly amazes me. Gods Peace Coach L.

 

Quite simply, he's not the norm.

 

Most statistical analysis, including PECOTA, uses a system of comparables. In the case of certain players... Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, even Julio Franco... there just haven't been enough players in the major leagues like them to get an accurate idea of how their career path is going to progress... especially once a player gets to an advanced age.

[CubDad4Ever]

Well put Rob, an anomaly so to speak . Honus Wagner along with Bonds were historically also amazing. Great take and thanks man DL

[JGalt73]

UK, with all the worries (some rightly so) for strict stat age related losses on Pecota , how does Roger Clemens defy the norms so much. I appreciate your level headed analysis thats why im asking. He truly amazes me. Gods Peace Coach L.

 

Quite simply, he's not the norm.

 

Most statistical analysis, including PECOTA, uses a system of comparables. In the case of certain players... Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, even Julio Franco... there just haven't been enough players in the major leagues like them to get an accurate idea of how their career path is going to progress... especially once a player gets to an advanced age.

 

Putting numbers on it :"PECOTA's similarity index is a gauge of the player's historical uniqueness; a player with a score of 50 or higher has a very common typology, while a player with a score of 20 or lower is historically unusual."

 

For the immortals:

 

Clemens '05 similarity index: 6

('06 top comparables of Nolan Ryan, Phil Niekro, Gaylord Perry)

 

Bonds '05 similarity index: 0

('06 top comparables of Ted Williams, Edgar Martinez, Carlton Fisk)

 

Maddux '05 similarity index: 17

('06 top comparables of Dennis Martinez, Warren Spahn, Tom Seaver)

 

For the mortals:

 

Prior similarity index: 22

(Don Wilson, Erik Hanson, Fergie Jenkins)

 

Wood similarity index: 30

(Rick Sutcliffe, Jose Deleon, Len Barker)

 

Derrek Lee similarity index: 59

(Dave Winfield, Cliff Floyd, Eric Karros)

[biittner77]

I am cautiously optimistic about Maddux this year. I commented last year that I thought he needed to do more conditioning in the offseason. He has never relied on strength and power to get the job done, but now that he is older I think he could benefit from extra conditioning. He has apparently worked out with a trainer this off season so, again, I am cautiously optimistic.

 

Just so long as he's not doing 8 sit ups with Moises Alou. :smokin:

 

Does Pecota differentiate between CF and corner OF?

 

Also, shouldn't there be a rule that if a player has a 1.7 VORP they should not make more than 1.7 million? So a player that made say 2.5 million would have to give back some of his salary.

[baseball7897]

The Bill James handbook:

 

Ronny Cedeno: 116 games 8HR 38RBI 16SB .310BA .358OBP

 

Matt Murton: 132 games 13HR 53RBI 18SB .318BA .378OBP

 

 

Ryan Dempster: 64 games 62IP 33BB 51SO 3W 4L 44Sv 4.75ERA

Edited February 4, 2006 by baseball7897

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Bill James handbook:

 

Ronny Cedeno: 116 games 8HR 38RBI 16SB .310BA .358OBP

 

Matt Murton: 132 games 13HR 53RBI 18SB .318BA .378OBP

 

I'll go down as saying there's no way either of them put up those numbers.

[snoodmonger]

The Bill James handbook:

 

Ronny Cedeno: 116 games 8HR 38RBI 16SB .310BA .358OBP

 

Matt Murton: 132 games 13HR 53RBI 18SB .318BA .378OBP

 

 

Ryan Dempster: 64 games 62IP 33BB 51SO 3W 4L 44Sv 4.75ERA

 

I assume this is different than PECOTA? If so, what's James's track record w/ regards to accuracy? Because if those guys are putting up those numbers, I'm suddenly feeling way better about '06.

[baseball7897]

Bill James has been writing about baseball and compiling reference book about baseball since 1975. He is currently the Senior Baseball Operations Advisor for the Boston Red Sox.

 

 

Im not sure what his track record is, this is the first time I got this book, but he did predict the Cubs would win 80 games last year and they won 79.

[Mark Priors Calves]

The Bill James handbook:

 

Ronny Cedeno: 116 games 8HR 38RBI 16SB .310BA .358OBP

 

Matt Murton: 132 games 13HR 53RBI 18SB .318BA .378OBP

 

I'll go down as saying there's no way either of them put up those numbers.

 

I'll agree that Murton won't get the .318 BA and .378 OBP, but I'd say he gets 13 HRs and 53 RBI.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The Bill James handbook:

 

Ronny Cedeno: 116 games 8HR 38RBI 16SB .310BA .358OBP

 

Matt Murton: 132 games 13HR 53RBI 18SB .318BA .378OBP

 

 

Ryan Dempster: 64 games 62IP 33BB 51SO 3W 4L 44Sv 4.75ERA

 

I can see Dempster doing that, but definitely not Cedeno or Murton. Wow.

[stitchface]

you think he can save 44 games with an ERA of almost five? the cubs better get him some big leads if those numbers are going to happen. I would think with an ERA around 5 he will have 7 or 8 losses and maybe 35 saves.

 

The Cubs could have 4-6 .300 hitters if those two meet those projections. If that happens, the team OBP should push .350. I would like to see that very much.