2006 Cubs. Better? Better ENOUGH?

[wastra]

I'm trying to keep a positive outlook here, so I'm going ot do everything in my power to NOT let this become a rant.

 

I'm looking at our team and how our 2006 roster looks to shake out, and I can't find too much to be thrilled about. For a team that finished under .500, I can't find reason to beleive we will be signifcantly improved ENOUGH to think we can compete with other teams in our division.

 

Offensively, from the team that struggled the entire 2005 to consistantly score runs, we've replaced Burnitz with Jones, which is really looking to be a wash, IMO.

 

Pierre should be an upgrade over Patterson's 2005, even if he just repeats last year's poor performance.

 

Hendry is looking to dump Walker, from all indications, which means our 2b offense will likely be a step down if shared between hairston, Perez, and Cedeno.

 

I can't imagine Lee putting up the same numbers as last year- he'll be good, but I don't know that he can repeat a year THAT good (he may wind up having a worse year, but driving in more runs, actually).

 

Our starting pitching is the same cast. I expect another slight decline for MAddux. We Rusch, whom I don't expect much from. Wood, Prior, and Z should be solid IF healthy. The Bullpen is really the only area that looks singificantly improved. that's not a minor thing. However, I don't thinka strong bullpen is the difference between finishing 4th and finishing 1st in this division. Not by a long shot.

 

I guess I'm just fishing for a reason to think this team can truly compete for the division in '06. I've been pretty close the past two years in my predictions, and I'm predicting this roster will battle to stay above water and finish slightly over .500 on the year (4-5 games over.) Can anyone give me more reason to hope? I am just having a really jaded view of this roster?

[MikeG]

A healthy Aramis would be a big boost.

[wastra]

A healthy Aramis would be a big boost.

 

I thought about that too. Healthy years from Wood, Aramis, Prior, et al.

 

 

But with all those guys, what was our record when they weren't on the DL? IIRC, even WITH Aramis, we were below .500.

[rawaction]

I think they could potentially be better. Like the trade or not (I did not) Pierre will be a big lift for this team offensively. He gives them a steady in the leadoff spot, and with this being a contract year, I expect him to show that 2005 was an anomoly, and get back to the .300/.360 range in BA/OBP.

 

Jones and Murton should at least be in Burnitz's neighborhood of production which was better than any other OF. Losing Walker, though, would cause a serious hit to the offense if that means Neifi is the starting 2B. I think the pen will be greatly improved. The rotation will be solid. I expect Williams to have a pretty good year and if Prior and Wood are out there alot, the Cubs have a good chance to improve. If they are in 2003 form, they have a chance to be good enough.

 

That's a lot of ifs though.

[TB_11]

Our starting pitching is the same cast. I expect another slight decline for MAddux. We Rusch, whom I don't expect much from. Wood, Prior, and Z should be solid IF healthy. The Bullpen is really the only area that looks singificantly improved. that's not a minor thing. However, I don't thinka strong bullpen is the difference between finishing 4th and finishing 1st in this division. Not by a long shot.

 

Given that Hendry has done little to improve our offense, all of our success will rest with our pitching. If Wood, Prior, and Z can start 90-100 games for us, if Maddux can pitch like he does in the 2nd half of his past few seasons, if Williams/Rusch can be quality fifth starters, and if the investment in our bullpen pays off, than we'll have a chance at the playoffs.

 

Problem is that's a lot of if's, and regardless of what the Sox showed last year, you can't rely on your pitching all of the time.

[goonys evil twin]

I'd like to say they're a lock to be better, but I can't yet. They should be a little better. But I'm not sure they'll look any better in February than they did last February, and I wasn't happy last February. It's tough to say with all the ifs and questions.

 

 

Was is not in question is that they are not better "enough". If "enough" means being able to justify their status as a big market team that had some obvious holes that needed to be filled. I guess they could be improved enough to contend in the NL Central this year, but that's not good enough for me. I see no reason why this team can't be a near lock for 90 wins and a good bet for 95. But with the moves made so far, it'll take a series of miracles to get to 95.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

I know I'm going to sound like a broken record but...

 

The Cubs were better last year than their record indicated. According to the BP adjusted standings they were a 85-86 win team. Add to the fact they have upgraded that team, most likely have improved health and the Cards\Astros regression it's easy to think they will contend next year.

 

Keys to next season:

 

1) 180 innings from Prior

2) .950 OPS from Lee

3) Demp is still a solid closer

4) The rookies are servicable

5) They don't trade Walker

 

 

That said, I hope I'm wrong. :wink:

[goonys evil twin]

According to the BP adjusted standings they were a 85-86 win team.

 

I think those standings are pretty questionable. They pretty much just bring everybody closer to the mean. On a RS/RA basis the Cubs finished as expected.

[USSoccer]

They're better now then when they stepped off the field in October, but they've not come anywhere near closing the nearly 20 game gap in the division with St Louis.

 

Ramirez and Lee were having great seasons before Aramis got hurt, and the team was still fluttering around .500. Why? Mostly because of the 1-2 spots in the order having pathetic OBP, and erratic starting pitching from everyone except Zambrano and, to a lesser extent, Williams.

 

Now, Pierre should be better than he was for Florida last season. Certainly he will be better than the assorted tripe we trotted out in the leadoff spots last year. But he's not going to make a 75 point jump in OBP. He'll be average, which is an improvement but not a big one.

 

The 2 spot scares me. If Baker constructs his lineup like a sane, intelligent baseball man, Murton will hit 2nd. It's the idealspot in the oder. He's got some speed, has a great eye, can hit to all fields, doesn't K a lot, and has plate discipline. However, Baker is not a sane, intelligent baseball mind. I fear Perez or Jones in this spot, and if it's Jones, it basically negates the OBP improvement that Pierre brings, since Jones hit into 26 DP's last season, IIRC. Perez wasn't much better there, either. Both Jones and Perez have terrible plate discipline, and while Jones has speed, Perez does not. This, IMO, is the key spot in the lineup. Bat Murton, Walker or Cedeno here, and you have an improved OBP ahead of Ramirez and Lee. Bat Jones or Perez here, and we're going to suck at scoring runs when the wind blows in.

 

The pitching staff is also a big question mark. Zambrano is Zambrano. He's going to win 20 at some point here in the next couple of years; I don't concern myself with him. Likewise, assuming we don't trade Prior (please, please don't trade Prior), I don't really worry about him, unless he's hit by an asteroid on the pitching elbow or something. I think he'll give you 15 wins, at least, assuming he's through with the fluke injuries.

 

But after Z and Prior, what do you have? Wood, who probably doesn't start until May 1st, and will be babied even then, Maddux, who stands a great shot at being worse than last year, when he was truly bad considering his salary , and Rusch, who was brought back as a security blanket in case Baker isn't comfortable starting Hill or Guzman in place of Wood.

 

I left out Williams because I think he's the key. I think he's a good pitcher, and assuming the conditioning improves to where it was before last season, I think he could be a pleasant suprise. I think it's not unreasonable to expect a sub 4 ERA, 190 IP and a decent chance to win when he pitches.

 

So, to make a long post short, we're counting on a lot of "If's" to contend. IF Prior isn't traded, IF Aramis's conditioning improves, IF Wood comes back healthy, IF Prior doesn't get hurt, IF Baker doesn't torpedo the lineup, etc, etc, then yeah, we can contend, but the smart thing would have been to make better decisions via trades and FA in order to minimize those "if's".

[goonys evil twin]

Ramirez and Lee were having great seasons before Aramis got hurt, and the team was still fluttering around .500. Why? Mostly because of the 1-2 spots in the order having pathetic OBP, and erratic starting pitching from everyone except ... .

 

People forget the damage done by wasting a middle of the order spot on Burnitz. The guy sucked in comparison to what a 4/5 hitting RF should give a team. His numbers were not as bad as the 1/2 holes, but they were as bad when put into context of the position.

 

The difference was that the 1/2 problem could have been alleviated by simply not using the worst possible options (Patterson, Neifi, Macias) as often as they were used, while the 4/5 spot occupied by Burnitz had no real replacement options, and that is why RF was such a necessary to fill hole.

[Andy]

The Cubs have a chance to be much better than the 2005 edition.

 

That said, Dusty, injuries, and general terrible luck (in that order) will once again probably keep us from being better enough to compete.

[UK1679666180]

They've improved the team, there's no doubt about that. But, I don't think they've improved enough and their talent still doesn't equal the amount they're paying for that talent.

 

If the season started today, the Cubs would battle Houston and a slim chance battle w/Milwaukee for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.

 

None would make the playoffs, and Houston and the Cubs will likely finish around 85 wins. 88 is the max # of wins I have this having.

[wastra]

They've improved the team, there's no doubt about that. But, I don't think they've improved enough and their talent still doesn't equal the amount they're paying for that talent.

 

If the season started today, the Cubs would battle Houston and a slim chance battle w/Milwaukee for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.

 

None would make the playoffs, and Houston and the Cubs will likely finish around 85 wins. 88 is the max # of wins I have this having.

 

 

That's exactly my feeling on this roster. Our sole hope is a lot of ifs (some more likely than others)-

 

IF the pitching remains healthy and effective

IF Pierre returns to at elast average form (for him)

IF Walker returns and hits second

IF Jones is healthy and better than 2002

IF Murton can keep it up for a full Major League season

 

 

then I can see this team winning 90 as the absolute best-case, everything falls our way, God loves us in 2006 scenario. However, those same"ifs" could, if the majority of them (or just the pitching) turn out for the negative, leave us as an 80 win or sub-.500 team as well.

 

I'm not encouraged.

[UK1679666180]

If everything fell into place, they could win more than 88 games, but I can't see it occuring.

 

Every season has regression as Lee, Barrett, and Murton are prime candidates.

 

Every season has injuries as Ramirez, Walker, and Wood are prime candidates.

 

Every season has breakout seasons Wuertz & Cedeno are prime candidates.

 

They'll definitely improve.

[Backtobanks]

I tend to agree with what most of you have written, but part of closing that 20 game gap has to come from the Cards. The Cubs (and the other teams) are not in the 95+ win league, but hopefully the Cards will not win that many games either. I look for the Cards to come back down to the 88-90 win level and then the Cubs could compete for the division.

[goonys evil twin]

I tend to agree with what most of you have written, but part of closing that 20 game gap has to come from the Cards. The Cubs (and the other teams) are not in the 95+ win league, but hopefully the Cards will not win that many games either. I look for the Cards to come back down to the 88-90 win level and then the Cubs could compete for the division.

 

Of course they could. My problem is that with their payroll advantage, the Cubs should win the division. They shouldn't just be contenders, they should be favorites. They should consistently win 90+ games, and with a top 5 payroll every year of his tenure, Hendry should have a great team by now. We shouldn't have to be like Twins fans who are hoping the rest of the division isn't all that good and that we get surpisingly large production/cost ratios out of several players.

[bhogg]

two biggies for next year:

 

1) Wood. If he's healthy, he takes alot of the pressure off our 3-5 starters.

 

2) Mabry. He'll be able to be a solid replacement for Aramis, thus hopefully allowing Aramis to play a full season. Mabry could be the guy that allows baker to sit guys like Aramis and Lee every so often.

[abuck1220]

i'm not feeling so confident about the bullpen. if everybody repeats their 2005, it should be solid. but eyre, howry and dempster have all had a few iffy seasons in there, and if those guys all happen to have one of those iffy seasons in '06, the pen could be a disaster. none of them have been consistently lights out over the span of their careers.

[rawaction]

i'm not feeling so confident about the bullpen. if everybody repeats their 2005, it should be solid. but eyre, howry and dempster have all had a few iffy seasons in there, and if those guys all happen to have one of those iffy seasons in '06, the pen could be a disaster. none of them have been consistently lights out over the span of their careers.

 

That's where I figure they'll be the strongest. I understand Dempster, Eyre and Howry's history, but I also like the potential of Wuertz, Ohman, and Williamson if they slip up. Ohman was pretty impressive last year when you consider he missed basically 3 years of baseball. Wuertz was good, got overused, then was great down the stretch. And Williamson is a much better pitcher than he showed last year. Odds are not all 3 of the late relievers will bust, although at least 1 will.

[wastra]

i'm not feeling so confident about the bullpen. if everybody repeats their 2005, it should be solid. but eyre, howry and dempster have all had a few iffy seasons in there, and if those guys all happen to have one of those iffy seasons in '06, the pen could be a disaster. none of them have been consistently lights out over the span of their careers.

 

That's where I figure they'll be the strongest. I understand Dempster, Eyre and Howry's history, but I also like the potential of Wuertz, Ohman, and Williamson if they slip up. Ohman was pretty impressive last year when you consider he missed basically 3 years of baseball. Wuertz was good, got overused, then was great down the stretch. And Williamson is a much better pitcher than he showed last year. Odds are not all 3 of the late relievers will bust, although at least 1 will.

 

Yeah- the pen is the area I'm least concerned with. While i or even two of our top 4 releivers might falter, we have a depth of good arms who could be fine replacements. If we were throwing all our eggs into the bucket of one or two arms, I'd be scared. But we'll have the problem of too MANY good arms this year, not trying to figure out who can hold a lead in the 7th.

[UK1679666180]

The health of the pen is going to be a concern as the season progresses. The Cubs haven't had a healthy pen since '03 and usage patterns should be looked at as part of the reason why.

[nick23]

I tend to agree with what most of you have written, but part of closing that 20 game gap has to come from the Cards. The Cubs (and the other teams) are not in the 95+ win league, but hopefully the Cards will not win that many games either. I look for the Cards to come back down to the 88-90 win level and then the Cubs could compete for the division.

 

Of course they could. My problem is that with their payroll advantage, the Cubs should win the division. They shouldn't just be contenders, they should be favorites. They should consistently win 90+ games, and with a top 5 payroll every year of his tenure, Hendry should have a great team by now. We shouldn't have to be like Twins fans who are hoping the rest of the division isn't all that good and that we get surpisingly large production/cost ratios out of several players.

 

But the thing is, a good chunk of that $100 million payroll has been on the disabled list the last 2 years. I believe that this team was good enough to make the playoffs the past couple of seasons. Injuries have just killed us. If Wood, Nomar, and Ramirez don't go down last year I think we would've been right in the wild card hunt. Now if we would have suffered no injuries the past two seasons and still not won 90 games then something would be wrong. Just look at the 04 team. Wood, Prior, Aramis, Walker, Borowski, and Sosa all missed significant time and we still won 89 games. I understand we're not the Twins, but we're not the Yankees or Red Sox either.

[wastra]

I tend to agree with what most of you have written, but part of closing that 20 game gap has to come from the Cards. The Cubs (and the other teams) are not in the 95+ win league, but hopefully the Cards will not win that many games either. I look for the Cards to come back down to the 88-90 win level and then the Cubs could compete for the division.

 

Of course they could. My problem is that with their payroll advantage, the Cubs should win the division. They shouldn't just be contenders, they should be favorites. They should consistently win 90+ games, and with a top 5 payroll every year of his tenure, Hendry should have a great team by now. We shouldn't have to be like Twins fans who are hoping the rest of the division isn't all that good and that we get surpisingly large production/cost ratios out of several players.

 

But the thing is, a good chunk of that $100 million payroll has been on the disabled list the last 2 years. I believe that this team was good enough to make the playoffs the past couple of seasons. Injuries have just killed us. If Wood, Nomar, and Ramirez don't go down last year I think we would've been right in the wild card hunt. Now if we would have suffered no injuries the past two seasons and still not won 90 games then something would be wrong. Just look at the 04 team. Wood, Prior, Aramis, Walker, Borowski, and Sosa all missed significant time and we still won 89 games. I understand we're not the Twins, but we're not the Yankees or Red Sox either.

 

Didn't seem to slow down all the OTHER teams who had significant injuries and still finished over .500

[Roast]

They will most likely improve. And they will most likely break .500

 

That being said, they are nowhere near competing yet. Just in order to break .500 I think the following things all (or at least most of them) have to happen.

 

-Wood stays healthy, starts.

-No Linedrives hit Prior

-Z keeps hydrated.

-Maddux not fall apart

-Williams stay solid as a starter

-Dempster continue to be a strong closer

-The bullpen hold up at least a little.

-Lee put up a .900-.950 OPS

-Aramis put up a .900-.950 OPS

-Pierre revert, at least a little, back to old form (higher than .326 obp)

-Murton STARTS in left field. all the time.

-Keep Walker or replace him with someone who can at least come close to an .800 OPS

-Cedeno not bomb

-Jones not suck

 

Thats alot. And it would REALLY help if we could get Tejada/Abreu without giving up Prior/Z.

[anemic offense]

They will most likely improve. And they will most likely break .500

 

That being said, they are nowhere near competing yet. Just in order to break .500 I think the following things all (or at least most of them) have to happen.

 

-Wood stays healthy, starts.

-No Linedrives hit Prior

-Z keeps hydrated.

-Maddux not fall apart

-Williams stay solid as a starter

-Dempster continue to be a strong closer

-The bullpen hold up at least a little.

-Lee put up a .900-.950 OPS

-Aramis put up a .900-.950 OPS

-Pierre revert, at least a little, back to old form (higher than .326 obp)

-Murton STARTS in left field. all the time.

-Keep Walker or replace him with someone who can at least come close to an .800 OPS

-Cedeno not bomb

-Jones not suck

 

Thats alot. And it would REALLY help if we could get Tejada/Abreu without giving up Prior/Z.

 

I'd say only half. When you think about it, a lot of things went wrong (alost everything that could did excpet for Lee and Z) last year and the team STILL almost finished at .500. I know, its hardly a ringing endorsement but can't possibly encounter (though if it can it will happen to the Cubs) the kind of luck (or lack thereof) it did last season.

 

IMO, if most those things you listed come to fruition then this team will finish with around 90 wins (give or take). I think a lot of people underestimate (though there were many to blame) how much a HANDFUL of people really brought this team down (and the injuries). Namely Nefi, Cpatt, the bullpen, and LF.