Are we better?

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Big question for the Cubs:

 

1) Will Lee hit atleast with a .950ish OPS?

2) Is Demp still a good closer?

3) Can Prior pitch 180 innings?

4) Will they keep Todd Walker?

 

Looks like a no on #4.

[XZero771679666304]

Big question for the Cubs:

 

1) Will Lee hit atleast with a .950ish OPS?

2) Is Demp still a good closer?

3) Can Prior pitch 180 innings?

4) Will they keep Todd Walker?

 

Looks like a no on #4.

 

1)Probably

2)Probably

3)I'd bet on it

4)Unfortnately, no

[goonys evil twin]

Nor are things as bad as you make them out to be.

 

I'm predicting 82-85 wins right now. If everything goes right they have a shot to flirt with 90. I don't think I'm being overly pessimistic.

 

But there is no excuse to not have this be a 95 win season. And if Hendry goes 4 years with never fielding a 90 win team, with the payroll he has had to work with, I don't see how any sane Cubs fan can still be in his corner.

[goonys evil twin]

And neither do the White Sox and look where it got them. Manipulating stats is exactly how someone comes to the conclusion that adding Pierre doesn't drastically improve the Cubs cf production.

 

Actually there is considerable evidence that the White Sox do put much greater emphasis on these stats than the Cubs. The acquisition of Thome would make me believe this. Turning Lee and his $8m into Pods, Dye and Iguchi. Lee is actually much more of an old school numbers guy (the counting stats - AVG/HR/RBI). People got hung up on the .300/30/100 with him, but Kenny didn't buy the hype. Maybe because he saw the OBP/SLG as less impressive, and knew he could get the same production from Dye for much less cost, something the Cubs refuse to do.

 

No way. KW has no clue. Pods was one of the worst OBP/OPS guys in baseball when he targeted him. If the Cubs made that move you would have crucified Hendry. Iguchi was just a cheap flyer that worked out for him. And Carlos Lee out-slugged Jermaine Dye every year of his career until last year. If KW cared, his team wouldn't have been near the bottom of the AL in OBP. No, he loves the toolsy guys, like Pods, Uribe, Rowand etc. And pitching. And it's his love of pitching that won him the title. Well, the fact that his entire pitching staff severely over achieved in 2005 while his offense dropped off significantly.

 

Carlos Lee is overrated and overpaid. KW turned him and his salary into 3 pieces of the puzzle, one of which outproduced him on his own. KW just traded Rowand, so I don't see how you can use his love for him against him.

 

I'm not saying I agree 100% with KW. Not at all. And I have no problem looking at tools. The problem is that is the only thing the Cubs focus on, and it kills them year after year. If they didn't have a $100m payroll to cover for their repeated mistakes, they'd still be a 75 win team every year.

[WrigleyField 22]

I just want someone to guarantee that if these terrible moves somehow work and we pull a White Sox, that they wil be here to remind me and anyone else that basically no one trusted Hendry, and rightfully so, and that it was luck. Because if next seaon is a success I wold be too overcome with happiness to remember the terrible moves.

[mg420]

Pierre's career stats:

 

.310 .353 .320 .673

.327 .378 .415 .793

.287 .332 .343 .675

.305 .361 .373 .734

.326 .374 .407 .781

.276 .326 .354 .680

 

Two bad years. Three good ones, and a pretty good rookie year(51 games only)

 

Hasn't missed game in three years in Florida, and put up two 150+ seasons in Colorado.

 

Pierre adds a lot of positives. He is not perfect, and yes, if you looked at numbers there may have been some better options, there may not have been better options. Some of the options were definately available, others we don't really know.

 

I don't know if I would have gone the same route as Hendry, but I know a lot less about what is going on than him.[/quote]

 

i'm glad to see that there are a few people on this board that dont live in a fantasy world where games are won and lost on paper in december. it is also very refreshing to hear someone state that maybe hendry knows a little bit more about baseball than we do. if these guys know so much about baseball, why dont they make a living doing it like hendry does?

[Jon]

i'm glad to see that there are a few people on this board that dont live in a fantasy world where games are won and lost on paper in december. it is also very refreshing to hear someone state that maybe hendry knows a little bit more about baseball than we do. if these guys know so much about baseball, why dont they make a living doing it like hendry does?

Would you make the same argument about a GM like Jim Bowden? Does the fact that every GM holds a GM position automatically make them well qualified and more baseball intelligent?

 

And Bowden is just evidence that once you're inside the inner circle of MLB, you can stay there for a long, long time.

[mg420]

i'm glad to see that there are a few people on this board that dont live in a fantasy world where games are won and lost on paper in december. it is also very refreshing to hear someone state that maybe hendry knows a little bit more about baseball than we do. if these guys know so much about baseball, why dont they make a living doing it like hendry does?

Would you make the same argument about a GM like Jim Bowden? Does the fact that every GM holds a GM position automatically make them well qualified and more baseball intelligent?

 

And Bowden is just evidence that once you're inside the inner circle of MLB, you can stay there for a long, long time.

 

regardless of how one gm compares to the others, i think its safe to say that not one person on this board has the slightest clue as to what it takes to be the gm of a major leauge team. baseball intelligence is one thing when it comes to throwing around idea's on a message board and quite another when one is dealing with a real business, real players and real $.

[USSoccer]

i'm glad to see that there are a few people on this board that dont live in a fantasy world where games are won and lost on paper in december. it is also very refreshing to hear someone state that maybe hendry knows a little bit more about baseball than we do. if these guys know so much about baseball, why dont they make a living doing it like hendry does?

Would you make the same argument about a GM like Jim Bowden? Does the fact that every GM holds a GM position automatically make them well qualified and more baseball intelligent?

 

And Bowden is just evidence that once you're inside the inner circle of MLB, you can stay there for a long, long time.

 

regardless of how one gm compares to the others, i think its safe to say that not one person on this board has the slightest clue as to what it takes to be the gm of a major leauge team. baseball intelligence is one thing when it comes to throwing around idea's on a message board and quite another when one is dealing with a real business, real players and real $.

 

I think there are probably 10 posters who could make better GM's than a few of the ML GM's right now. Its not brain surgery or rocket science. Or even Rocket Sauce. :P

 

It's knowing baseball, having an understanding of economics, task managing, time managing, planning ahead, staying focused and having a good staff to support and augment your strengths and weaknesses. Let's not make running the personnel side of a baseball team out to be the most impossible thing ever. Sure, it's hard. But it's no more or less demanding than any administrative job. It's just a different kind of administrative job.

[UK1679666180]

I think there are probably 10 posters who could make better GM's than a few of the ML GM's right now. Its not brain surgery or rocket science.

 

Even though, the one who you were responding continues to make the same repeated and repeated point used, that goes against the actual concept of a message board by fans for fans. I find this concept impossible to grasp, that someone can't offer up an opinion that might differ with what has been done, think every GM agrees with every other move another GM makes? Think every fans agrees with every move a GM makes? It's called a discussion among fans.

 

I disagree with the concept that 10 posters whomever those are would make a better GM than even the worse GM in MLB history.

 

So much behind the scenes stuff and the battle isn't doing well once you get there, it is getting there. The numbers game makes it the challenge.

 

So many great scouts out there, god knows I've seen them at so many games, and those are area scouts and bird dogs. It's one giant pyramid.

[USSoccer]

I think there are probably 10 posters who could make better GM's than a few of the ML GM's right now. Its not brain surgery or rocket science.

 

Even though, the one who you were responding continues to make the same repeated and repeated point used, that goes against the actual concept of a message board by fans for fans. I find this concept impossible to grasp, that someone can't offer up an opinion that might differ with what has been done, think every GM agrees with every other move another GM makes? Think every fans agrees with every move a GM makes? It's called a discussion among fans.

 

I disagree with the concept that 10 posters whomever those are would make a better GM than even the worse GM in MLB history.

 

So much behind the scenes stuff and the battle isn't doing well once you get there, it is getting there. The numbers game makes it the challenge.

 

So many great scouts out there, god knows I've seen them at so many games, and those are area scouts and bird dogs. It's one giant pyramid.

 

My statement was more "in a vaccum, 10 would be better", but i agree with you. it's impossible to get to that point to even be considered for a GM spot. Lots of hard work and long hours, and luck

[RockTheIvy]

I think this Cubs team is better than last years. I think the bullpen has a chance to be excellent. Notice, a chance. Hopefully Williamson will prove to be the best acquisition. The offense has the chance to be good. We are however, IMO, relying a bit too much on some unproven commodities, ie Cedeno and Murton. I'm cool with them playing and trying to develop younger players, but the Jones acquistion makes their contributions more important. Had Hendry traded for Abreu, or even Wilkerson, I would be less concerned. I do like the Pierre signing because I believe he will be a good leadoff hitter. I am also very interested to see how the rest of the offseason pans out. What will JH do with Patterson and Walker?

 

All in all, I'd say we are an 85 win team. Hopefully we can stretch it to 90 somethin wins.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

I think this Cubs team is better than last years. I think the bullpen has a chance to be excellent. Notice, a chance. Hopefully Williamson will prove to be the best acquisition. The offense has the chance to be good. We are however, IMO, relying a bit too much on some unproven commodities, ie Cedeno and Murton. I'm cool with them playing and trying to develop younger players, but the Jones acquistion makes their contributions more important. Had Hendry traded for Abreu, or even Wilkerson, I would be less concerned. I do like the Pierre signing because I believe he will be a good leadoff hitter. I am also very interested to see how the rest of the offseason pans out. What will JH do with Patterson and Walker?

 

All in all, I'd say we are an 85 win team. Hopefully we can stretch it to 90 somethin wins.

 

Your right about Cedeno and Murton being unproven but they are replacing guys who were so bad they will almost HAVE to be an upgrade.

[RockTheIvy]

I think this Cubs team is better than last years. I think the bullpen has a chance to be excellent. Notice, a chance. Hopefully Williamson will prove to be the best acquisition. The offense has the chance to be good. We are however, IMO, relying a bit too much on some unproven commodities, ie Cedeno and Murton. I'm cool with them playing and trying to develop younger players, but the Jones acquistion makes their contributions more important. Had Hendry traded for Abreu, or even Wilkerson, I would be less concerned. I do like the Pierre signing because I believe he will be a good leadoff hitter. I am also very interested to see how the rest of the offseason pans out. What will JH do with Patterson and Walker?

 

All in all, I'd say we are an 85 win team. Hopefully we can stretch it to 90 somethin wins.

 

Your right about Cedeno and Murton being unproven but they are replacing guys who were so bad they will almost HAVE to be an upgrade.

 

In Murton's case, you're right. But said crappy SS found a new home, at 2B!

[WrigleyField 22]

Just to clarify. WhenI said Hendry has more of an idea of whats going on, I meant like behind the scenes. He has a good idea of whos REALLY available, who is a desired trade chip from other teams, and who isn't all that valuabe. Not to mention he probably has access to many sources to find out what is really going on (like knowing why a guy had a down year, reasons fans would't be aware of) Stuff likthis probably helped with Barrett- or just dumb luck, I don't know-

 

SOME people on message boards could do just as well , assuming they worked their way up to learn the ropes, and then were given this "privelaged" information. Most of us couldn't. Not that we can't point out deficincies, but factoring in everything. Many GM's with jobs can't do this.

[Outshined_One]

Anyone else find it funny that the most optimistic person in this thread about the Cubs' chances is a Cardinals fan?

[WrigleyField 22]

Anyone else find it funny that the most optimistic person in this thread about the Cubs' chances is a Cardinals fan?

 

Its because a Cardinals fan could never really know true pain. Only us poor Cubs fans.

[Fro]

I think what's frustating is we should be better than we were last year, but we're worse on paper than we were going into 2003 or 2004 and worse than we should be considering our payroll.

[goonys evil twin]

I think what's frustating is we should be better than we were last year, but we're worse on paper than we were going into 2003 or 2004 and worse than we should be considering our payroll.

 

I think what's most frustrating is that better shouldn't be the question. They should be much much better. If Hendry manages to go 4 straight years with a top 5 payroll without winning 90 games once, that would be terribly frustrating to me.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Anyone else find it funny that the most optimistic person in this thread about the Cubs' chances is a Cardinals fan?

 

Its because a Cardinals fan could never really know true pain. Only us poor Cubs fans.

 

I.. I..

 

http://members.roadfly.com/keithm3/cubs%20believe.JPG

 

:oops:

[rork73]

Your right about Cedeno and Murton being unproven but they are replacing guys who were so bad they will almost HAVE to be an upgrade.

 

I agree. And it'll be a bigger upgrade mental/attitude wise than just stats and skill wise imo.

Edited December 23, 2005 by rork73

[rork73]

I don't know about people on this board that could be a good GM, but I do know that a lot of people could be a better skipper than Dusty. ;)

Although I guess it's sort of a quality when you're able to make people underachieve in a constant way.

 

Seriously though, I do think that a good skipper can make a good team better and a bad skipper can make a good team worse - that he's a bigger influence on the team's collective performance that any possible player could have.

What I'm saying is that winning 85 or 90 games a year depends more on the skipper than on having or not having a good leadoff hitter for instance.

[CubmanPi]

Anyone else find it funny that the most optimistic person in this thread about the Cubs' chances is a Cardinals fan?

 

It's easy for the Cards fan to be supportive and optmistic. He gets to be comfortaby distant from all this, knowing that regardless of how unlikely it is that the Cubs pull off a record better than last year's, the Cubs still have no chance of competing for the division come August 1st. Some call it being a good sport, and I bet he's chuckling to himself with every word. I would be if I were him.

[WrigleyField 22]

Anyone else find it funny that the most optimistic person in this thread about the Cubs' chances is a Cardinals fan?

 

Its because a Cardinals fan could never really know true pain. Only us poor Cubs fans.

 

I.. I..

 

http://members.roadfly.com/keithm3/cubs%20believe.JPG

 

:oops:

 

Are you a closet Cubs fan?

 

Take my advice and turn around before you a full blown die hard. Not even the toughest of humans can take the pain.