Are we better?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

C - Wash

1B - Expect less production, not considerable, but less

2B - Wash if Walker plays, but he won't, so expect less production

3B - Wash

SS - Should improve unless Cedeno flops/Neifi plays

LF - Murton should provide much better numbers

CF - Pierre should bring up the numbers a bit

RF - Wash, I expect Jones will almost duplicate Burny's numbers

 

Offensively, I think we are a little better with the potential to be much better if Cedeno is at SS and Walker is at 2B. Defensively we'll be just about the same. Pierre isn't quite a whiz in the field, but he'll definitely make the routine plays. Cedeno was known for his glove before he started hitting, so I'm not worried there. You know what you're getting at C, 1B, and 3B. There may be a slight improvement at 2B. I've heard the knocks on Murton's arm, etc., but it would be a stretch to think he's any worse than any of the elephants on last year's LF carousel. Adding Mabry to and subtracting Macias from the bench also gives this year's team an advantage.

 

The wild card is pitching (huge if coming). IF the rotation can stay healthy, and the bullpen is all it's cracked up to be, this team has an easy chance of winning 90. I don't know if that'll be enough to win the division, but I don't see the Cards, Astros, or Brewers doing that much better.

[Flames24Rulz]

I see this team between 81-83 wins as it stands right now.

[WrigleyField 22]

I don't get people saying Pierre is only a slight upgrade offensively.

Is he overratd? Yes, but he is way better than Patterson was for us this year, and what he would likely be this year. Pierre is a good player. Don't judge him on one poor year.

 

That being said it probably wont be enough to turn around this team. White Sox type pitching will change this team.

 

I predict 82 wins.

 

Also remember that Perez was actually good to start the year, and there is no way Lee matches his numbers from the first half. Its quite possible he will start out slow like normal. Combined with possible slow starts from Cedeno(since he is still inexperienced) and Wood missing early on, we may see a team that improves later in the year.(under a new manager )

 

At this point even if we got Tejada,I would only predict about 86-89 wins. The reasoning: Tejada would hit 4/5 allowing Dusty to put that "speedy" Jones in the two spot.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

The Cards and Astros play the Cubs a lot. If they aren't as good that means more wins for the Cubs. It's reasonable to think they will also improve against other teams.

 

I think it's unreasonable to think they'll get much more than the 19 wins they had against those two teams last year. They've done no better than tread water against much of the rest of the league. I think 82-85 is a realistic, and 90 would be close to best case scenario, as it stands now.

 

And I think they were a 86 win team last year and they have improved upon that team.

 

how many of these 7 wins that we actually loss can be attributed to the closer-by-comittee in the early season?

 

and the macias factor?

 

I attribute it to mostly to luck.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

The Cards and Astros play the Cubs a lot. If they aren't as good that means more wins for the Cubs. It's reasonable to think they will also improve against other teams.

 

I think it's unreasonable to think they'll get much more than the 19 wins they had against those two teams last year. They've done no better than tread water against much of the rest of the league. I think 82-85 is a realistic, and 90 would be close to best case scenario, as it stands now.

 

And I think they were a 86 win team last year and they have improved upon that team.

 

Except they were a 79 win team and the improvements have been marginal at best.

 

I think run differential is a better predictor of future success than actually wins (yes, I know that sounds crazy).

[goonys evil twin]

I don't get people saying Pierre is only a slight upgrade offensively.

 

Last year the Cubs ranked 16th in the NL in OPS from CF. Florida was 15th.

[goonys evil twin]

I think run differential is a better predictor of future success than actually wins (yes, I know that sounds crazy).

 

I think run differential is a nice tool, but it's flawed. And saying this was an 86 win team is just wrong. The Cubs lost 83 games last year for a reason, and it wasn't luck.

[WrigleyField 22]

I don't get people saying Pierre is only a slight upgrade offensively.

 

Last year the Cubs ranked 16th in the NL in OPS from CF. Florida was 15th.

 

Wow. I didn't realize that Pierre was the only offensive output on the Marlins! Besides, it was a bad year last year, he is likely to rebound IMO. And also, his OPS isn't as important as his OBP. He needs to get on base. He has the speed to score from first. Anything extra just makes his job easier.

[NukeLaloosh]

I don't get people saying Pierre is only a slight upgrade offensively.

 

Last year the Cubs ranked 16th in the NL in OPS from CF. Florida was 15th.

 

Wow. I didn't realize that Pierre was the only offensive output on the Marlins! Besides, it was a bad year last year, he is likely to rebound IMO. And also, his OPS isn't as important as his OBP. He needs to get on base. He has the speed to score from first. Anything extra just makes his job easier.

 

Some of these new-fangled fans are dangerous. A little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing. They read a couple books about sabermetrics etc. and all of sudden everything boils down to someone's OPS. Pierre's OBP and ability to disrupt pitchers rhythms are his primary attributes. I don't care if the guy doesn't hit a home run all season.

[rawaction]

I don't get people saying Pierre is only a slight upgrade offensively.

 

Last year the Cubs ranked 16th in the NL in OPS from CF. Florida was 15th.

 

Wow. I didn't realize that Pierre was the only offensive output on the Marlins! Besides, it was a bad year last year, he is likely to rebound IMO. And also, his OPS isn't as important as his OBP. He needs to get on base. He has the speed to score from first. Anything extra just makes his job easier.

 

Some of these new-fangled fans are dangerous. A little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing. They read a couple books about sabermetrics etc. and all of sudden everything boils down to someone's OPS. Pierre's OBP and ability to disrupt pitchers rhythms are his primary attributes. I don't care if the guy doesn't hit a home run all season.

 

How does he disrupt pitchers? He had his worst year in a while in 05, while the guy hitting behind him Castillo had one of his best. If your theory is correct, wouldn't Castillo have better numbers when Pierre got on base more? It's actually been the opposite.

[goonys evil twin]

I don't get people saying Pierre is only a slight upgrade offensively.

 

Last year the Cubs ranked 16th in the NL in OPS from CF. Florida was 15th.

 

Wow. I didn't realize that Pierre was the only offensive output on the Marlins! Besides, it was a bad year last year, he is likely to rebound IMO. And also, his OPS isn't as important as his OBP. He needs to get on base. He has the speed to score from first. Anything extra just makes his job easier.

 

Some of these new-fangled fans are dangerous. A little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing. They read a couple books about sabermetrics etc. and all of sudden everything boils down to someone's OPS. Pierre's OBP and ability to disrupt pitchers rhythms are his primary attributes. I don't care if the guy doesn't hit a home run all season.

 

Well, you guys are real class acts. New fangled fans? Okay meat.

 

If you don't think OPS matters, fine, Hendry and the Cubs don't seem to think it matters much either and we've seen the results of their theories.

 

 

Pierre was pretty much the Marlins only CF last year, and he sucked. Corey was not the only Cubs CF. Their overall production from CF sucked, but Florida's wasn't much better. If you replaced FL's CF production with the Cubs, they'd have still sucked as a team.

 

This is why people think Pierre is only a slight upgrade. People actually take the time to investigate this sort of stuff and don't just base their opinions on conventional wisdom, cliches and myth pushers of a bygone era like Joe Morgan.

[J.R.]

Some of these new-fangled fans are dangerous.

 

http://www.gminsidenews.com/forums/images/smilies/lmao.gif

[WrigleyField 22]

I don't get people saying Pierre is only a slight upgrade offensively.

 

Last year the Cubs ranked 16th in the NL in OPS from CF. Florida was 15th.

 

Wow. I didn't realize that Pierre was the only offensive output on the Marlins! Besides, it was a bad year last year, he is likely to rebound IMO. And also, his OPS isn't as important as his OBP. He needs to get on base. He has the speed to score from first. Anything extra just makes his job easier.

 

Some of these new-fangled fans are dangerous. A little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing. They read a couple books about sabermetrics etc. and all of sudden everything boils down to someone's OPS. Pierre's OBP and ability to disrupt pitchers rhythms are his primary attributes. I don't care if the guy doesn't hit a home run all season.

 

Well, you guys are real class acts. New fangled fans? Okay meat.

 

If you don't think OPS matters, fine, Hendry and the Cubs don't seem to think it matters much either and we've seen the results of their theories.

 

 

Pierre was pretty much the Marlins only CF last year, and he sucked. Corey was not the only Cubs CF. Their overall production from CF sucked, but Florida's wasn't much better. If you replaced FL's CF production with the Cubs, they'd have still sucked as a team.

 

This is why people think Pierre is only a slight upgrade. People actually take the time to investigate this sort of stuff and don't just base their opinions on conventional wisdom, cliches and myth pushers of a bygone era like Joe Morgan.

 

Oh crap. I just realized I misread that original post. I didn't see that "CF", so thought you meant team as a whole. My mistake. Sorry

 

But I still stand by my other statements. OBP is more important than OPS out of leadoff, and I believe Pierre will rebound fromhis down 2005 season.

 

And although this statement may seem ironic considering my sig, Pierre's speed should help him. (my sig is in reference to someone like Jones that offers speed, but not OBP)

[XZero771679666304]

Of course we are an improved team. Adding Eyre and Howry probably adds at least 5-7 wins by stabilizing our disaster of a pen. If Dempster pitches at all like he did last year, you can add a few more wins over last year because of the early season closing debacle. Even if Wood doesn't contribute any more than he did last year, the rotation is bound to be better, unless Prior gets smoked by another line drive. We will almost certainly get better roduction in LF. RF will be about the same.

 

Even if Pierre only contributes a .330 OBP, that will add a lot more runs to the offensive output as compared to last year's black hole at the top of he lineup. We will get better production from SS if Dusty plays Cedeno. We'll see what happens with 2B.

 

Hendry has done a poor job for sure, but this team is at least 10 wins better than last year's already. At least. And there will be more to come, for better or worse, I'm sure.

[NukeLaloosh]

I don't get people saying Pierre is only a slight upgrade offensively.

 

Last year the Cubs ranked 16th in the NL in OPS from CF. Florida was 15th.

 

Wow. I didn't realize that Pierre was the only offensive output on the Marlins! Besides, it was a bad year last year, he is likely to rebound IMO. And also, his OPS isn't as important as his OBP. He needs to get on base. He has the speed to score from first. Anything extra just makes his job easier.

 

Some of these new-fangled fans are dangerous. A little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing. They read a couple books about sabermetrics etc. and all of sudden everything boils down to someone's OPS. Pierre's OBP and ability to disrupt pitchers rhythms are his primary attributes. I don't care if the guy doesn't hit a home run all season.

 

Well, you guys are real class acts. New fangled fans? Okay meat.

 

If you don't think OPS matters, fine, Hendry and the Cubs don't seem to think it matters much either and we've seen the results of their theories.

 

 

Pierre was pretty much the Marlins only CF last year, and he sucked. Corey was not the only Cubs CF. Their overall production from CF sucked, but Florida's wasn't much better. If you replaced FL's CF production with the Cubs, they'd have still sucked as a team.

 

This is why people think Pierre is only a slight upgrade. People actually take the time to investigate this sort of stuff and don't just base their opinions on conventional wisdom, cliches and myth pushers of a bygone era like Joe Morgan.

 

Where did I say OPS didn't matter? All I'm saying is that there is this whole new breed of fan that thinks they're smart about baseball because they read a couple books and try to simplify the theories in those books down to a few stastistics. I don't know how anyone can even compare Pierre and Patterson last year, even with Pierre's poor numbers. Patterson was down right brutal. His approach is awful. Pierre is a completely different ball player. When he's going well, which he has for the majority of his career, he can provide you with a solid OBP. He can steal some bases. He can force pitchers to throw out of the stretch, waste throws to first, try and pitch carefully around batters following him. I don't think he's a great player or among the CF elite. But given a choice between him and Patterson; it's no contest. I don't give a flying #### what his OPS is.

[UK1679666180]

I have the Cubs between 84-87 wins at this stage. They'll get improvements from Murton and Pierre. RF will remain stagnet. Lee will regress, Barrett will regress, not much of a trend expecting Ramirez or the rotation to stay healthy.

 

The improvements will come the pen, Murton, and Pierre.

 

Probably good enough to notice a swing, not good enough to make the playoffs, or bad enough (for them, I know I would've) to make wholesale changes.

[goonys evil twin]

Hendry has done a poor job for sure, but this team is at least 10 wins better than last year's already. At least. And there will be more to come, for better or worse, I'm sure.

 

If this team is 10 wins better, Hendry didn't do a poor job.

 

Unfortunately your claims for more wins based on the acquisitons made aren't really all realistic.

[goonys evil twin]

Where did I say OPS didn't matter? All I'm saying is that there is this whole new breed of fan that thinks they're smart about baseball because they read a couple books and try to simplify the theories in those books down to a few stastistics. I don't know how anyone can even compare Pierre and Patterson last year, even with Pierre's poor numbers. Patterson was down right brutal. His approach is awful. Pierre is a completely different ball player. When he's going well, which he has for the majority of his career, he can provide you with a solid OBP. He can steal some bases. He can force pitchers to throw out of the stretch, waste throws to first, try and pitch carefully around batters following him. I don't think he's a great player or among the CF elite. But given a choice between him and Patterson; it's no contest. I don't give a flying #### what his OPS is.

 

Like I said, the Cubs don't care about these new fangled stats either, looks where it's got them.

 

For the record, I've never read a single book about baseball stats.

 

And I didn't compare Pierre to Patterson. I compared the Cubs CF last year to Florida's. Patterson was only a part of the total CF production. Pierre was virtually all of the CF production. If you replaced the Cubs CF production with Florida's production last year, then the Cubs wouldn't have been any better.

 

Before you just go off insulting people for what they write I suggest you try and read what they actually write.

[WrigleyField 22]

The biggest thing that will keep us from improving drastically is the fact tht Lee is not likely to return to last years numbers. He still is a good hitter, but unless we get a capable number 4/5 hitter, and make sure Jones stays 6 or lower, the regression of Lee will ofset many of the improvements.

[UK1679666180]

Also, if Perez is starting over Walker, I'd pencil in two less wins (82-85 wins).

[WrigleyField 22]

Pierre's career stats:

 

.310 .353 .320 .673

.327 .378 .415 .793

.287 .332 .343 .675

.305 .361 .373 .734

.326 .374 .407 .781

.276 .326 .354 .680

 

Two bad years. Three good ones, and a pretty good rookie year(51 games only)

 

Hasn't missed game in three years in Florida, and put up two 150+ seasons in Colorado.

 

Pierre adds a lot of positives. He is not perfect, and yes, if you looked at numbers there may have been some better options, there may not have been better options. Some of the options were definately available, others we don't really know.

 

I don't know if I would have gone the same route as Hendry, but I know a lot less about what is going on than him.

[NukeLaloosh]

Where did I say OPS didn't matter? All I'm saying is that there is this whole new breed of fan that thinks they're smart about baseball because they read a couple books and try to simplify the theories in those books down to a few stastistics. I don't know how anyone can even compare Pierre and Patterson last year, even with Pierre's poor numbers. Patterson was down right brutal. His approach is awful. Pierre is a completely different ball player. When he's going well, which he has for the majority of his career, he can provide you with a solid OBP. He can steal some bases. He can force pitchers to throw out of the stretch, waste throws to first, try and pitch carefully around batters following him. I don't think he's a great player or among the CF elite. But given a choice between him and Patterson; it's no contest. I don't give a flying #### what his OPS is.

 

Like I said, the Cubs don't care about these new fangled stats either, looks where it's got them.

 

For the record, I've never read a single book about baseball stats.

 

And I didn't compare Pierre to Patterson. I compared the Cubs CF last year to Florida's. Patterson was only a part of the total CF production. Pierre was virtually all of the CF production. If you replaced the Cubs CF production with Florida's production last year, then the Cubs wouldn't have been any better.

 

Before you just go off insulting people for what they write I suggest you try and read what they actually write.

 

And neither do the White Sox and look where it got them. Manipulating stats is exactly how someone comes to the conclusion that adding Pierre doesn't drastically improve the Cubs cf production.

[goonys evil twin]

And neither do the White Sox and look where it got them. Manipulating stats is exactly how someone comes to the conclusion that adding Pierre doesn't drastically improve the Cubs cf production.

 

Actually there is considerable evidence that the White Sox do put much greater emphasis on these stats than the Cubs. The acquisition of Thome would make me believe this. Turning Lee and his $8m into Pods, Dye and Iguchi. Lee is actually much more of an old school numbers guy (the counting stats - AVG/HR/RBI). People got hung up on the .300/30/100 with him, but Kenny didn't buy the hype. Maybe because he saw the OBP/SLG as less impressive, and knew he could get the same production from Dye for much less cost, something the Cubs refuse to do.

[XZero771679666304]

Hendry has done a poor job for sure, but this team is at least 10 wins better than last year's already. At least. And there will be more to come, for better or worse, I'm sure.

 

If this team is 10 wins better, Hendry didn't do a poor job.

 

Unfortunately your claims for more wins based on the acquisitons made aren't really all realistic.

 

Nor are things as bad as you make them out to be. If you can look back at last year and honestly say that a full season of Dempster at closer and adding Howry and Eyre to what was probably the worst pen around doesn't constitute a 8-10 game improvement on its own, I think you are crazy. Our bullpen was pitiful, with a ton of blown saves and few holds. It has gone from horrid to good because a lot of the pressure is now off guys like Wuertz, Ohman and Novoa.

 

And Prior will probably give us at least 32 starts, and with Williams around we won't see a starter merry-go-round when Wood is out. Hill, Mitre, Koronka, Dempster and Leicester were all terrible as starers, and we won't have to resort to that again, barring any unexpected line drives.

 

Add in the meager offensive improvements and take into account what CFICT posted about how we should have won 86 games last year, it is hard to imagine how the Cubs aren't likely to be at least 10 wins better, unless you are just being as extemely pessimistic as you can be. Add to that the fact that the level of competition in our own division is likely to be less than it was, and my assertion looks a whole lot more realistic than yours.

[NukeLaloosh]

And neither do the White Sox and look where it got them. Manipulating stats is exactly how someone comes to the conclusion that adding Pierre doesn't drastically improve the Cubs cf production.

 

Actually there is considerable evidence that the White Sox do put much greater emphasis on these stats than the Cubs. The acquisition of Thome would make me believe this. Turning Lee and his $8m into Pods, Dye and Iguchi. Lee is actually much more of an old school numbers guy (the counting stats - AVG/HR/RBI). People got hung up on the .300/30/100 with him, but Kenny didn't buy the hype. Maybe because he saw the OBP/SLG as less impressive, and knew he could get the same production from Dye for much less cost, something the Cubs refuse to do.

 

No way. KW has no clue. Pods was one of the worst OBP/OPS guys in baseball when he targeted him. If the Cubs made that move you would have crucified Hendry. Iguchi was just a cheap flyer that worked out for him. And Carlos Lee out-slugged Jermaine Dye every year of his career until last year. If KW cared, his team wouldn't have been near the bottom of the AL in OBP. No, he loves the toolsy guys, like Pods, Uribe, Rowand etc. And pitching. And it's his love of pitching that won him the title. Well, the fact that his entire pitching staff severely over achieved in 2005 while his offense dropped off significantly.