Rumor: Guzman and Welly for Aubrey Huff

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Supposedly, this is one of the two rumored "on-the-table" trades Hendry has had out there this week, and is waiting on a reply, related to me by a local sportswriter on the Royals beat. I think I'd be extremely pleased if that is indeed the deal and it is accepted, but I have to think the reason it hasn't occurred is because Tampa thinks it can do better--like maybe holding out for Hill.

 

I was also somewhat surprised to hear that the same guy tells me the Royals are at least thinking of moving Andy Sisco into the rotation for 2006. They are hesitant because he looks to be a successful setup man, and those are certainly valuable, but he'd have a whole lot more value to KC if he could become a competent starter. They look to be one starter short as things currently stand.

 

I spoiled his fun by pointing out to him that the Royals are now jinxed with the ex-Cubs factor: Sisco, Matt Stairs and Mark Grudzielanek will all be on the opening day roster. So no turnaround in 06 for KC.

[David]

If we can give them Hill instead of Guzman, to me (maybe I'm nuts) it's an easier decision. If we have to give them all three (this package plus Hill), it's tough. Two of our bigger chips for Huff...

 

What are the chances that we can count on Huff to return to his pre-2005 production? He is only 28, so there's no reason to really think he's washed up.

 

If he can do what he did before his down year, we would be pretty solid in RF. He is the type of guy who could blossom being out of a terrible situation in TB.

[Wheelimus]

To be honest, I attribute his decline to just how depressing it had to be playing in Tampa Bay. No help what-so-ever...

 

That deal? Pull it.

[snoodmonger]

I am firmly in the "I don't want Huff unless we get him for Neifi" camp.

 

I don't think he's worth any of our top prospects.

[Tim]

To be honest, I attribute his decline to just how depressing it had to be playing in Tampa Bay. No help what-so-ever...

 

That deal? Pull it.

Without looking it up, I believe Tampa had a better offense than we did last year.

[Outshined_One]

He'll be a defensive butcher, but his bat will be better than any other options out there.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

What I like about Huff is that his downside (2005) is Burnitz-level production, but if that's as bad as it gets, then he's worth the trade for the upside--his numbers in 02-04 are quite nice. As for the defense argument, sure, I'd prefer a strong defensive RF, but honestly--we got by fine for the most part with Sammy out there, and for the second half of his career he was pretty much a butcher in the field, too.

 

By the way, the speculation as it was related to me was that Tampa was holding out for Hill INSTEAD of Guzman, not in addition to him. So the question to you is Hill + Wellemeyer, is that a fair deal or not? I think so, but apparently Hendry does not.

[mhuber92211]

I think that this is one of those "no-brainer" deals in that it is maximizing the value of Guzman. One of the complaints towards Hendry's tenure is not trading high and I think that Guzman has reached what he can offer. He has had back to back lost seasons and isn't strong enough for a role in the rotation until at least mid year this coming season after not pitching much this past season. He hasn't had any sustained efforts in higher levels of competition and this is most likely his make or break year. If he breaks out then great for us but if he doesn't then his prospect value is Welly's level instead of the slightly below blue chip value he is now. The downside to this is if he turns out to have the breakout year and is another Willis. This leaves the question on whether or not Huff is worth the risk. Personally, with the holes on this team and the depth of starting pitching and Guzman's history, I think that this is a deal that must be completed.

[JeffH]

I would hate to give up Guzman, but, unless Huff has a terrible 2006, you'll be able to offer him arbitration with no fear of getting stuck with him, assuming you don't want to keep him.

 

That way, you'll be able to get a high draft choice - possibly two - to offset the loss of Guzman.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

Do it Jim!

 

All these Huff rumors shortly after I took him out of my sig. I'm back aboard the Huff BandWGN.

[TrueBlueCubFan]

Huff is a perfect fit for the Cubs with what is available. I'd rather see a Hill/ Welly trade rather than a Guzman/Welly trade.

In my opinion, Huff is one of those, in need of a change of scenery, type players.

[CUBZ99]

I wouldn't like to see the Cubs trade Guzman for anyone outside of Abreu or Tejada. Guzman has the potential (if he can stay healty) to be a top of the rotation pitcher. IMO you can't take that lightly and trade him off for an average LH hitter.

[YearofDaCubs]

I would hate to see Guzman go but realistically with all his injuries we might hold on to him and he might not do anything for us. I think this would be a good deal for both teams and the trade has risks involved on both sides with high rewards.

 

EDIT: And for the record Huff is probably the best realistic option for us. We get Huff and I'll be happy.

[CUBZ99]

BTW how does a beatwriter in KC have inside knowledge about one of Hendry's offers on the table, when not a single writer in Chicago has a clue? Are the Chi-town beatwriters slacking off? :lol:

[JeffH]

I wouldn't like to see the Cubs trade Guzman for anyone outside of Abreu or Tejada. Guzman has the potential (if he can stay healty) to be a top of the rotation pitcher. IMO you can't take that lightly and trade him off for an average LH hitter.

 

One thing to consider about Guzman is that he's never pitched above AA and he has to break camp with the big club for good coming out of spring training 2007.

[sweetpeteman]

I would be fine with trading Guzman. I think we need to get what we can out of him, and if that Huff, so be it. I just don't see him getting over his arm troubles. Every year its the same thing. Face it, the guy can not stay healthy.

 

also, I would rather trade him to Tampa Bay, where, if he does finally get over his arm, he isn't in a position to hurt us.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

BTW how does a beatwriter in KC have inside knowledge about one of Hendry's offers on the table, when not a single writer in Chicago has a clue? Are the Chi-town beatwriters slacking off? :lol:

 

Like half the deals in progress out there, third-party teams hear about them. The Royals have been talking with Tampa because they're trying to work a trade for Joey Gathright, who they really like. Problem is that KC is trying to pawn off Jeremy Affeldt and Mike Wood, where Tampa is more interested in JP Howell and Ambiorix Burgos. Hard to see where the two sides can find middle ground there, it's a big gulf between Affeldt and Wood vs. Howell and Burgos.

[CP_414]

I'd like to keep Guzman, but I would do this trade. Huff was really good in 03 and 04 and is still only 28. He battled injuries and frustration about still being a D-Ray last year, and he got off to a horrible start. I see no reason why he can't hit 30HR's, with a .360 OBP for the Cubs next year.

 

Sign me up.

[mlarner]

Is that really the most they can get for Huff?

If you are a TB fan (yes, you are one of the 10 or 15 left!) are you happy with this deal?

[Deeg]

I'd happily give them Guzman and Wellemeyer for Huff, but not Hill. And since Huff is closer to average than butcher defensively, I think he could be a very nice player for us.

[jjgman21]

I've been known to be an injury apologist for some position players, but usually not pitchers and certainly not Guzman. I would do this trade in a heartbeat and am shocked TB would even think of it.

 

I can't believe Guzman's trade value is anywhere near that high and personally I would do better than that to get Huff, if not in quality, then in quantity. the guy hit a ton in the minors and proved he figured it out in the majors. he hasn't had any major injuries to account for his slip. any sabrs have some luck numbers for him?

 

if this trade went down, I think it would be a classic Hendry fleecing.

[Guancous]

If we can give them Hill instead of Guzman, to me (maybe I'm nuts) it's an easier decision. If we have to give them all three (this package plus Hill), it's tough. Two of our bigger chips for Huff...

 

I was reading a Sports Weekly today and they shadowed Jim Hendry during the Winter Meetings. They asked him about the Dontrelle Willis trade. He said that the Marlins hadn't scouted him in years. He also said that you can't be afraid to pull the trigger. He immediately followed that up by saying that he learned never to trade left-handed starters with good makeup.

[jjgman21]

Supposedly, this is one of the two rumored "on-the-table" trades Hendry has had out there this week, and is waiting on a reply, related to me by a local sportswriter on the Royals beat. I think I'd be extremely pleased if that is indeed the deal and it is accepted, but I have to think the reason it hasn't occurred is because Tampa thinks it can do better--like maybe holding out for Hill.

 

I was also somewhat surprised to hear that the same guy tells me the Royals are at least thinking of moving Andy Sisco into the rotation for 2006. They are hesitant because he looks to be a successful setup man, and those are certainly valuable, but he'd have a whole lot more value to KC if he could become a competent starter. They look to be one starter short as things currently stand.

 

I spoiled his fun by pointing out to him that the Royals are now jinxed with the ex-Cubs factor: Sisco, Matt Stairs and Mark Grudzielanek will all be on the opening day roster. So no turnaround in 06 for KC.

 

would you mind elaborating on how you had access to this writer?

[JeffH]

any sabrs have some luck numbers for him?

 

Significant dropoff last year in BABIP.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Supposedly, this is one of the two rumored "on-the-table" trades Hendry has had out there this week, and is waiting on a reply, related to me by a local sportswriter on the Royals beat. I think I'd be extremely pleased if that is indeed the deal and it is accepted, but I have to think the reason it hasn't occurred is because Tampa thinks it can do better--like maybe holding out for Hill.

 

I was also somewhat surprised to hear that the same guy tells me the Royals are at least thinking of moving Andy Sisco into the rotation for 2006. They are hesitant because he looks to be a successful setup man, and those are certainly valuable, but he'd have a whole lot more value to KC if he could become a competent starter. They look to be one starter short as things currently stand.

 

I spoiled his fun by pointing out to him that the Royals are now jinxed with the ex-Cubs factor: Sisco, Matt Stairs and Mark Grudzielanek will all be on the opening day roster. So no turnaround in 06 for KC.

 

would you mind elaborating on how you had access to this writer?

 

No.