Good article about win shares/WARP

[USSoccer]

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/11/sports/baseball/11score.html

 

Food for thought.

[JGalt73]

The World Series champion Chicago White Sox use a different popular method to assess their expected victories. Rick Hahn, their assistant general manager, tracks the number of runs his lineup should score and his pitching staff should allow. Several studies have shown that any 10-run swing in that differential equates to about one victory.

 

"When we got Jim Thome from the Phillies, we figured he was worth about 20 runs more than the combination of Carl Everett and Frank Thomas," Hahn said, referring to the 2005 club's designated hitters. Hahn estimated that giving up center fielder Aaron Rowand in the trade cost about five runs. "That gave us a total improvement of about 15 runs. We feel we improved by about one and a half wins in the exchange, which is pretty good."

 

Anyone else seriously wonder if anyone in the Cubs office does anything remotely scientific like this in trade evaluations?

[USSoccer]

The World Series champion Chicago White Sox use a different popular method to assess their expected victories. Rick Hahn, their assistant general manager, tracks the number of runs his lineup should score and his pitching staff should allow. Several studies have shown that any 10-run swing in that differential equates to about one victory.

 

"When we got Jim Thome from the Phillies, we figured he was worth about 20 runs more than the combination of Carl Everett and Frank Thomas," Hahn said, referring to the 2005 club's designated hitters. Hahn estimated that giving up center fielder Aaron Rowand in the trade cost about five runs. "That gave us a total improvement of about 15 runs. We feel we improved by about one and a half wins in the exchange, which is pretty good."

 

Anyone else seriously wonder if anyone in the Cubs office does anything remotely scientific like this in trade evaluations?

 

I know that Gary Hughes isn't the most enamored with metric evaluations of players. The Cubs front office is mostly made up of scouts, old school baseball guys. I'm sure there's someone who brings a statisctical background/viewpoint to the table, but I'm not sure how much of an influence they have.

[CubinNY]

Given the contracts handed out to Perez, Rusch, Howry and Eyre I have to wonder.

 

I can remember a couple of years ago the Cubs hired a guy to do statitical analysis but I cannot remember his name. In addition, Mr. Miles mentioned that Hughes is not anti-stat.

[sweetpeteman]

I'm sorry, but that "Runs" thing sounds like complete bull.

 

Sure, Thome COULD give you 15 more "Runs" but more than likely won't.

[CuseCubFan69]

Is a dartboard scientific? Magic 8 ball? Then no.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Given the contracts handed out to Perez, Rusch, Howry and Eyre I have to wonder.

 

I can remember a couple of years ago the Cubs hired a guy to do statitical analysis but I cannot remember his name. In addition, Mr. Miles mentioned that Hughes is not anti-stat.

 

Chuck Wasserstrom is the guy you're thinking of, IIRC.

[TXCubsFan]

Given the contracts handed out to Perez, Rusch, Howry and Eyre I have to wonder.

 

I can remember a couple of years ago the Cubs hired a guy to do statitical analysis but I cannot remember his name. In addition, Mr. Miles mentioned that Hughes is not anti-stat.

 

I think Hendry looks at the value that a player would bring to the entire organization, not unlike an investment banker managing a portfolio of loans and investments. The contracts with Rusch, Howry, Eyre, and Dempster allow Hendry to trade the organization's strength (pitching prospects) for established position players. Neifi! is a hedge in a market (SS) with few alternatives and high prices. The contracts with Neifi!, Howry, Rusch, and Eyre look overvalued individually but have more value when looking at the entire "portfolio" of players and prospects.

 

By maximizing and storing value, Hendry can pounce on undervalued assets that become available during distress sales (e.g., Ramirez, DLee, now Tejada).

[stitchface]

Given the contracts handed out to Perez, Rusch, Howry and Eyre I have to wonder.

 

I can remember a couple of years ago the Cubs hired a guy to do statitical analysis but I cannot remember his name. In addition, Mr. Miles mentioned that Hughes is not anti-stat.

 

 

heh, hughes looks closely at BA, HR and rbis, huh? just kidding.

[CuseCubFan69]

I remember Mr. Miles saying that Hughes looks at a lot of things and isn't nearly as one dimentional as many believe.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I remember Mr. Miles saying that Hughes looks at a lot of things and isn't nearly as one dimentional as many believe.

 

As much as we like to malign Hughes around these parts, looking at the players he drafted and developed in Montreal shows that he has quite an impressive track record regardless of his methods.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I remember Mr. Miles saying that Hughes looks at a lot of things and isn't nearly as one dimentional as many believe.

 

As much as we like to malign Hughes around these parts, looking at the players he drafted and developed in Montreal shows that he has quite an impressive track record regardless of his methods.

 

There's quite a difference between drafting players, which has very very little reliable statistical data, and being an assistant GM and evaluating near major leaguers and major leaguers that have a much longer and more reliable backgrounds.

[CubinNY]

Given the contracts handed out to Perez, Rusch, Howry and Eyre I have to wonder.

 

I can remember a couple of years ago the Cubs hired a guy to do statitical analysis but I cannot remember his name. In addition, Mr. Miles mentioned that Hughes is not anti-stat.

 

I think Hendry looks at the value that a player would bring to the entire organization, not unlike an investment banker managing a portfolio of loans and investments. The contracts with Rusch, Howry, Eyre, and Dempster allow Hendry to trade the organization's strength (pitching prospects) for established position players. Neifi! is a hedge in a market (SS) with few alternatives and high prices. The contracts with Neifi!, Howry, Rusch, and Eyre look overvalued individually but have more value when looking at the entire "portfolio" of players and prospects.

 

By maximizing and storing value, Hendry can pounce on undervalued assets that become available during distress sales (e.g., Ramirez, DLee, now Tejada).

 

I really, really, really, wish this were true. But Hendry has spent this entire off-season looking for a "lead-off hitter". Which means he overvalues the value of a lead off hitter and he overvalues speed. Because he has a guy on the team who is just about as good as a leadoff hitter as Slappy Pierre and he has let eveyone this side of Brisbane Austrila know he is looking to trade him (i.e., Todd Walker). Far too ofthen he seems to undervalue OBP and walks in general. In other words, he buys too high and sells too low (where is goony when you need him?).

 

To me the entire portfolio looks like an 85 million dollar 75 to 80 win team. Likely, not a good return on investment

 

But there is plenty of time for him to shore up his holdings and get some production for his dollar. Abrue or Tejada would go along way toward that.

[stitchface]

I remember Mr. Miles saying that Hughes looks at a lot of things and isn't nearly as one dimentional as many believe.

 

I was kidding Cuse but really the bottomline is the moves the cubs make.

[CuseCubFan69]

I remember Mr. Miles saying that Hughes looks at a lot of things and isn't nearly as one dimentional as many believe.

 

I was kidding Cuse but really the bottomline is the moves the cubs make.

 

I assumed you were but after that interview with Baseball America (I think) Hughes didn't come off so well.

[B]

Given the contracts handed out to Perez, Rusch, Howry and Eyre I have to wonder.

 

I can remember a couple of years ago the Cubs hired a guy to do statitical analysis but I cannot remember his name. In addition, Mr. Miles mentioned that Hughes is not anti-stat.

 

I think Hendry looks at the value that a player would bring to the entire organization, not unlike an investment banker managing a portfolio of loans and investments. The contracts with Rusch, Howry, Eyre, and Dempster allow Hendry to trade the organization's strength (pitching prospects) for established position players. Neifi! is a hedge in a market (SS) with few alternatives and high prices. The contracts with Neifi!, Howry, Rusch, and Eyre look overvalued individually but have more value when looking at the entire "portfolio" of players and prospects.

 

By maximizing and storing value, Hendry can pounce on undervalued assets that become available during distress sales (e.g., Ramirez, DLee, now Tejada).

 

That sounds like some BS that came straight from Hendry's mouth.

[UK1679666180]

It shows how little the lines are drawn in the sand as far as stats vs. tools in the great debate.

 

The White Sox are known for being one of the more toolsy teams, yet, this article shows a statistical side of the equation. If you looked at Oakland, Clev., Tor., etc you'd find plenty of OFPs and basic scouting reports and weighted heavily by those organizations.

 

Each team uses both... (even the Cubs)

[TB_11]

Given the contracts handed out to Perez, Rusch, Howry and Eyre I have to wonder.

 

I can remember a couple of years ago the Cubs hired a guy to do statitical analysis but I cannot remember his name. In addition, Mr. Miles mentioned that Hughes is not anti-stat.

 

I think Hendry looks at the value that a player would bring to the entire organization, not unlike an investment banker managing a portfolio of loans and investments. The contracts with Rusch, Howry, Eyre, and Dempster allow Hendry to trade the organization's strength (pitching prospects) for established position players. Neifi! is a hedge in a market (SS) with few alternatives and high prices. The contracts with Neifi!, Howry, Rusch, and Eyre look overvalued individually but have more value when looking at the entire "portfolio" of players and prospects.

 

By maximizing and storing value, Hendry can pounce on undervalued assets that become available during distress sales (e.g., Ramirez, DLee, now Tejada).

 

If that really is how Hendry looks at players, my opinion of his GMing ability will drop significantly.

[hardcorecubfan]

Nice article but I'll let the stat geeks worry about doing the math I'll enjoy the game and expect all of them to perform at an unbelievable level..Thome or Macias

[RynoRules]

The World Series champion Chicago White Sox use a different popular method to assess their expected victories. Rick Hahn, their assistant general manager, tracks the number of runs his lineup should score and his pitching staff should allow. Several studies have shown that any 10-run swing in that differential equates to about one victory.

 

"When we got Jim Thome from the Phillies, we figured he was worth about 20 runs more than the combination of Carl Everett and Frank Thomas," Hahn said, referring to the 2005 club's designated hitters. Hahn estimated that giving up center fielder Aaron Rowand in the trade cost about five runs. "That gave us a total improvement of about 15 runs. We feel we improved by about one and a half wins in the exchange, which is pretty good."

 

Anyone else seriously wonder if anyone in the Cubs office does anything remotely scientific like this in trade evaluations?

 

I know that Gary Hughes isn't the most enamored with metric evaluations of players. The Cubs front office is mostly made up of scouts, old school baseball guys. I'm sure there's someone who brings a statisctical background/viewpoint to the table, but I'm not sure how much of an influence they have.

 

I know tha you are not saying Hughes never looks at metric stats, but Mr. Miles has said that Hughes weighs them heavily. Whether that plays out or not...