Trading Hill

[CubsWin]

Some believe that Rich Hill is considered an untouchable by Cubs management and criticize Hendry for not giving him up more easily. I don't know if there is much credible evidence showing that Rich Hill absolutely won't be traded by Jim Hendry, but I do have all the evidence I need to understand why Hendry would be unwilling to trade him away without getting the right player in return. I think some posters were left with a bad taste in their mouths by Hill's poor performance with the Cubs briefly last season. Thus, I think it is important to remind ourselves what Hill did in the minors last season (10 starts in AAA, 10 starts in AA and 1 in Low A).

 

21 starts, 11-4, 3.31, 130 2/3 innings, 105 hits, 194 Ks, 35 BBs, 1.07 WHIP, with an AVG. against around .210.

 

If the guy can strikeout 182 AA/AAA batters while walking only 35 in just 122.2 innings, what can he do against major leaguers? That is 13.4 Ks per 9 against only 2.6 BBs. If he could strikeout 9 and walk 3 per 9 innings in the majors next season, would you take it?

 

Hill is basically major league ready. If the guy can just trust his stuff and battle the same way he did in the minors, he will succeed. How common is it to have a player be a little in awe of the show his first time up? I think Hill deserves the benefit of the doubt given his consistent performance throughout all of last season in the minors.

 

I'm not advocating that he be untouchable. In a package for Abreu, Tejada or probably even Wilkerson, I'd be very willing to give him up. But to base your opinion of him on his brief call up last season would be a big mistake. He will be better than that. A lot better.

[UMFan83]

I am by no means a scouting expert, but my understanding of Hill is that he had one great pitch (Curve), one decent pitch (Fastball) and the rest was junk. That kinda stuff will fool Minor league hitters, but in the majors, it was only a matter of time before he was partially figured out. Obviously this stuff can be improved upon with more seasoning, but I wouldn't put Hill in the untouchable realm yet. I'd rather have proven Tejada then unproven Hill on the team.

 

I'm kinda on the fence on the issue of Hill's value, but I think that if the right player comes around, no unproven prospect is untouchable

[CubsWin]

I am by no means a scouting expert, but my understanding of Hill is that he had one great pitch (Curve), one decent pitch (Fastball) and the rest was junk. That kinda stuff will fool Minor league hitters, but in the majors, it was only a matter of time before he was partially figured out. Obviously this stuff can be improved upon with more seasoning, but I wouldn't put Hill in the untouchable realm yet. I'd rather have proven Tejada then unproven Hill on the team.

 

I'm kinda on the fence on the issue of Hill's value, but I think that if the right player comes around, no unproven prospect is untouchable

Well, we are in agreement when it comes to whether Hill should be traded if the right player comes along. I certainly would include him in a package for Tejada, Abreu and probably even Wilkerson.

 

As far as his stuff, I'm no scouting expert either, so here is what BA has to say...

Hill’s 12-to-6 curveball is often unhittable, and batters can’t sit on it now that he can locate his 90-91 mph fastball. His changeup shows promise and would give him the third pitch he requires to remain a starter. He has cleaned up his delivery, which also improved his control. For all his progress, Hill didn’t throw strikes when he joined the Cubs and big league hitters took advantage. He needs to trust and use his changeup more often. Hill will get a chance to crack Chicago’s rotation in spring training, and he has the stuff to be a No. 2 starter.

When you put that scouting report together with his numbers in the minors last season (11-4, 3.31, 130.2 IP, 105 hits, 194 Ks, 35 BBs), Hill's value starts to come into a clearer focus.

 

At least for me...

[ThePenguin11]

I'm not sold on Hill. I think that the scouting report is a little bit off on him too. Hitters are sitting on the curve ball because his fastball is a joke. I went through his best game re-watched all of his pitches and didn't even see a changeup.

 

He will do more harm than good for a team trying to contend, while he tries to figure out how to get major league hitters out. He's got a lot of work to do to be successful at that level, and the Cubs don't have luxury of taking a beating every fifth day so he can make progress. He won't make any more progress in AAA because their are so many lifer scrubs in that league who will never make it to the bigs because they can't hit a curve ball.

 

To be fair, he's perfect for the Orioles. They're not going anywhere and could use a guy with his potential. All told he might have a first half of 3-8 with an ERA of 5.50, but if he figures it out he could be a guy looking at 8-3 with an ERA in the 3.00's in the second half of the season. That said - they can have him if we get Tejada.

[mg420]

I'm not sold on Hill. I think that the scouting report is a little bit off on him too. Hitters are sitting on the curve ball because his fastball is a joke. I went through his best game re-watched all of his pitches and didn't even see a changeup.

 

He will do more harm than good for a team trying to contend, while he tries to figure out how to get major league hitters out. He's got a lot of work to do to be successful at that level, and the Cubs don't have luxury of taking a beating every fifth day so he can make progress. He won't make any more progress in AAA because their are so many lifer scrubs in that league who will never make it to the bigs because they can't hit a curve ball.

 

To be fair, he's perfect for the Orioles. They're not going anywhere and could use a guy with his potential. All told he might have a first half of 3-8 with an ERA of 5.50, but if he figures it out he could be a guy looking at 8-3 with an ERA in the 3.00's in the second half of the season. That said - they can have him if we get Tejada.

 

i would hardly call a 88-92 mph fastball a "joke" (especially from a lefty). pettie throws about the same velocity and look what guys like kenny rodgers & jamie moyer do year after year with 83 mph fastballs. if hill can hit his spots he'll do good. if not he'll have problems just like all pitchers. velocity is majorly overrated when it comes to pitchers imo. a guy with an 85 mph fb who throws strikes & changes speeds can be a big winner in the ml's just as a guy who throws 95 but has no control will most likely get rocked.

[Warpticon]

Yeah, major league initial stints often don't tell the big picture that well.

 

Player A: 3-1, 3.22, 39 k & 17 bb in 44 IP, 1.28 WHIP

Player B: 1-2, 15.26, 4 k & 8 bb in 7.2 IP, 2.59 WHIP

 

It should be pretty obvious, but Player A is Juan Cruz. Player B is Carlos Zambrano.

[BigbadB]

Yeah, I don't understand how anyone can simply write a guy off who has logged a total of 23 major league innings.

 

Are 23 innings really enough to tell if a guy will make it in the major leagues? I think not.

 

Maybe in Cliff Bartosh's case, but not in Rich Hill's.

[NCCubFan]

Yeah, major league initial stints often don't tell the big picture that well.

 

Player A: 3-1, 3.22, 39 k & 17 bb in 44 IP, 1.28 WHIP

Player B: 1-2, 15.26, 4 k & 8 bb in 7.2 IP, 2.59 WHIP

 

It should be pretty obvious, but Player A is Juan Cruz. Player B is Carlos Zambrano.

And how about Player C.

 

First call-up: 2-4, 5.52 ERA, 20 K, 11 BB, 31 IP

First full season: 6-14, 5.61 ERA, 101 K, 74 BB, 155.7 IP

 

Too bad that Greg Maddux guy never amounted to anything. :D

[dacheezwhiz]

Personally, I dont think much of Hill. I rank him below Pie, Guzman, and Pawalek. I believe since the first thoughts of a dunn deal, when Hendry gave up because of his unwillingness to part with Hill, he has simply been inflating his value for future trades. If we can center a tejada, abreu, dunn, wilkerson, or bradley deal around Hill, I would be quite happy. Good job Jim. (unless I am wrong and you actually turned down the dunn trade when you had to put in Hill)

[BigbadB]

Personally, I dont think much of Hill. I rank him below Pie, Guzman, and Pawalek. I believe since the first thoughts of a dunn deal, when Hendry gave up because of his unwillingness to part with Hill, he has simply been inflating his value for future trades. If we can center a tejada, abreu, dunn, wilkerson, or bradley deal around Hill, I would be quite happy. Good job Jim. (unless I am wrong and you actually turned down the dunn trade when you had to put in Hill)

 

I don't recall there ever being a Hill/Dunn trade being discussed. I do recall a comment from Bruce Miles that Hendry valued Hill so much, that he wouldn't trade him for Dunn, but that's all I recall.

 

Refresh my memory on the proposed Dunn trade that would have included Rich Hill.

[ThePenguin11]

I'm not sold on Hill. I think that the scouting report is a little bit off on him too. Hitters are sitting on the curve ball because his fastball is a joke. I went through his best game re-watched all of his pitches and didn't even see a changeup.

 

He will do more harm than good for a team trying to contend, while he tries to figure out how to get major league hitters out. He's got a lot of work to do to be successful at that level, and the Cubs don't have luxury of taking a beating every fifth day so he can make progress. He won't make any more progress in AAA because their are so many lifer scrubs in that league who will never make it to the bigs because they can't hit a curve ball.

 

To be fair, he's perfect for the Orioles. They're not going anywhere and could use a guy with his potential. All told he might have a first half of 3-8 with an ERA of 5.50, but if he figures it out he could be a guy looking at 8-3 with an ERA in the 3.00's in the second half of the season. That said - they can have him if we get Tejada.

 

i would hardly call a 88-92 mph fastball a "joke" (especially from a lefty). pettie throws about the same velocity and look what guys like kenny rodgers & jamie moyer do year after year with 83 mph fastballs. if hill can hit his spots he'll do good. if not he'll have problems just like all pitchers. velocity is majorly overrated when it comes to pitchers imo. a guy with an 85 mph fb who throws strikes & changes speeds can be a big winner in the ml's just as a guy who throws 95 but has no control will most likely get rocked.

 

I didn't say it was a joke because of the velocity. It's a joke because it's straight and he's got no accuracy in hitting his spots. Face it, right now he's a one-trick pony. He might not be in a year or two, but he's going to be 26 years old on opening day, so he's short on time.

[Bruce Miles]

Personally, I dont think much of Hill. I rank him below Pie, Guzman, and Pawalek. I believe since the first thoughts of a dunn deal, when Hendry gave up because of his unwillingness to part with Hill, he has simply been inflating his value for future trades. If we can center a tejada, abreu, dunn, wilkerson, or bradley deal around Hill, I would be quite happy. Good job Jim. (unless I am wrong and you actually turned down the dunn trade when you had to put in Hill)

 

I don't recall there ever being a Hill/Dunn trade being discussed. I do recall a comment from Bruce Miles that Hendry valued Hill so much, that he wouldn't trade him for Dunn, but that's all I recall.

 

Refresh my memory on the proposed Dunn trade that would have included Rich Hill.

 

That was last year. Hill is no longer an untouchable.

[Balsa]

 

That was last year. Hill is no longer an untouchable.

 

What caste is he in now? :lol:

 

And how about Player C.

 

First call-up: 2-4, 5.52 ERA, 20 K, 11 BB, 31 IP

First full season: 6-14, 5.61 ERA, 101 K, 74 BB, 155.7 IP

 

Too bad that Greg Maddux guy never amounted to anything.

 

I think this is a very relevant point. Greg Maddux was awful his first callup/year, we should give Hill more a chance. Just because he's not a Kerry Wood and didn't strike out 20 astros in his first year, doesn't mean that he won't be a very good pitcher.

[Mark Priors Calves]

If Hendry is so high on Hill's ability and is/was considered untradeable, why is Hendry stockpiling starting pitching, we're even hearing that he has intentions of possibly making a move for another one?

 

1. Prior

2. Zambrano

3. Maddux

4. Wood?

5. Rusch

6. Williams

 

 

7. Hill

 

If a new pitcher is acquired, Hill presumably moves down to number 8 on the depth chart. He'll more than likely start the season in Iowa and only be called up if one of the pitchers goes down.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Personally, I dont think much of Hill. I rank him below Pie, Guzman, and Pawalek. I believe since the first thoughts of a dunn deal, when Hendry gave up because of his unwillingness to part with Hill, he has simply been inflating his value for future trades. If we can center a tejada, abreu, dunn, wilkerson, or bradley deal around Hill, I would be quite happy. Good job Jim. (unless I am wrong and you actually turned down the dunn trade when you had to put in Hill)

 

I don't recall there ever being a Hill/Dunn trade being discussed. I do recall a comment from Bruce Miles that Hendry valued Hill so much, that he wouldn't trade him for Dunn, but that's all I recall.

 

Refresh my memory on the proposed Dunn trade that would have included Rich Hill.

 

That was last year. Hill is no longer an untouchable.

 

Music to my ears. Any chance that means he might be heading to Baltimore?

[JeffH]

Personally, I dont think much of Hill. I rank him below Pie, Guzman, and Pawalek. I believe since the first thoughts of a dunn deal, when Hendry gave up because of his unwillingness to part with Hill, he has simply been inflating his value for future trades. If we can center a tejada, abreu, dunn, wilkerson, or bradley deal around Hill, I would be quite happy. Good job Jim. (unless I am wrong and you actually turned down the dunn trade when you had to put in Hill)

 

I don't recall there ever being a Hill/Dunn trade being discussed. I do recall a comment from Bruce Miles that Hendry valued Hill so much, that he wouldn't trade him for Dunn, but that's all I recall.

 

Refresh my memory on the proposed Dunn trade that would have included Rich Hill.

 

That was last year. Hill is no longer an untouchable.

 

Bruce, I think it's clear that Hill would go for the likes of Tejada, Abreu, or Zito.

 

Do you think Hendry would trade him in a deal for the next tier down?

 

Wilkerson/Lugo/Huff/Mench/Nixon/Bradley/Green/Hudson/Kearns/Ibanez/Floyd/...

[Bruce Miles]

Personally, I dont think much of Hill. I rank him below Pie, Guzman, and Pawalek. I believe since the first thoughts of a dunn deal, when Hendry gave up because of his unwillingness to part with Hill, he has simply been inflating his value for future trades. If we can center a tejada, abreu, dunn, wilkerson, or bradley deal around Hill, I would be quite happy. Good job Jim. (unless I am wrong and you actually turned down the dunn trade when you had to put in Hill)

 

I don't recall there ever being a Hill/Dunn trade being discussed. I do recall a comment from Bruce Miles that Hendry valued Hill so much, that he wouldn't trade him for Dunn, but that's all I recall.

 

Refresh my memory on the proposed Dunn trade that would have included Rich Hill.

 

That was last year. Hill is no longer an untouchable.

 

Music to my ears. Any chance that means he might be heading to Baltimore?

 

There's always a chance. They're so early in the process right now, but as I wrote today, I think all the old presumptions are out the window.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

There's always a chance. They're so early in the process right now, but as I wrote today, I think all the old presumptions are out the window.

 

Thanks. By the way, I read your article today to be somewhat of a Dear Santa [Hendry] letter. I don't know if that was intended, but that's what I got. :)

[Diffusion]

I think some posters were left with a bad taste in their mouths by Hill's poor performance with the Cubs briefly last season. Thus, I think it is important to remind ourselves what Hill did in the minors last season (10 starts in AAA, 10 starts in AA and 1 in Low A).

 

21 starts, 11-4, 3.31, 130 2/3 innings, 105 hits, 194 Ks, 35 BBs, 1.07 WHIP, with an AVG. against around .210.

[...]

 

As far as his stuff, I'm no scouting expert either, so here is what BA has to say...

Hill’s 12-to-6 curveball is often unhittable, and batters can’t sit on it now that he can locate his 90-91 mph fastball. His changeup shows promise and would give him the third pitch he requires to remain a starter. He has cleaned up his delivery, which also improved his control. For all his progress, Hill didn’t throw strikes when he joined the Cubs and big league hitters took advantage. He needs to trust and use his changeup more often. Hill will get a chance to crack Chicago’s rotation in spring training, and he has the stuff to be a No. 2 starter.

 

[...]

Hill is basically major league ready. If the guy can just trust his stuff and battle the same way he did in the minors, he will succeed. How common is it to have a player be a little in awe of the show his first time up? I think Hill deserves the benefit of the doubt given his consistent performance throughout all of last season in the minors.

 

What most disturbed most people about Hill's performance in his short time with the Cubs last year is that he set about making a mockery of Baseball America's scouting report. Certainly, he showcased the often unhittable curveball, but the fastball was nowhere as good as advertised: his velocity was down on earlier in the season, there was very little movement on it, and he had absolutely no control of it for the most part. By this stage in the season he'd also completely laid aside the changeup, he wasn't throwing it any more. A bleh fastball and one other pitch, no matter how good, is not a recipe for success as a major league starting pitcher. People are worried about what kind of a future he has not because of the numbers that he put up, but the way that he went about putting those numbers up.

[SeldomSeen]

Personally, I dont think much of Hill. I rank him below Pie, Guzman, and Pawalek. I believe since the first thoughts of a dunn deal, when Hendry gave up because of his unwillingness to part with Hill, he has simply been inflating his value for future trades. If we can center a tejada, abreu, dunn, wilkerson, or bradley deal around Hill, I would be quite happy. Good job Jim. (unless I am wrong and you actually turned down the dunn trade when you had to put in Hill)

 

I don't recall there ever being a Hill/Dunn trade being discussed. I do recall a comment from Bruce Miles that Hendry valued Hill so much, that he wouldn't trade him for Dunn, but that's all I recall.

 

Refresh my memory on the proposed Dunn trade that would have included Rich Hill.

 

That was last year. Hill is no longer an untouchable.

 

Music to my ears. Any chance that means he might be heading to Baltimore?

 

There's always a chance. They're so early in the process right now, but as I wrote today, I think all the old presumptions are out the window.

 

Would this include Pie, as well???

[Andy]

If Hendry is so high on Hill's ability and is/was considered untradeable, why is Hendry stockpiling starting pitching, we're even hearing that he has intentions of possibly making a move for another one?

 

1. Prior

2. Zambrano

3. Maddux

4. Wood?

5. Rusch

6. Williams

 

 

7. Hill

 

If a new pitcher is acquired, Hill presumably moves down to number 8 on the depth chart. He'll more than likely start the season in Iowa and only be called up if one of the pitchers goes down.

It's a good thing no pitchers on our team ever get injured, then.

[Bruce Miles]

Personally, I dont think much of Hill. I rank him below Pie, Guzman, and Pawalek. I believe since the first thoughts of a dunn deal, when Hendry gave up because of his unwillingness to part with Hill, he has simply been inflating his value for future trades. If we can center a tejada, abreu, dunn, wilkerson, or bradley deal around Hill, I would be quite happy. Good job Jim. (unless I am wrong and you actually turned down the dunn trade when you had to put in Hill)

 

I don't recall there ever being a Hill/Dunn trade being discussed. I do recall a comment from Bruce Miles that Hendry valued Hill so much, that he wouldn't trade him for Dunn, but that's all I recall.

 

Refresh my memory on the proposed Dunn trade that would have included Rich Hill.

 

That was last year. Hill is no longer an untouchable.

 

Music to my ears. Any chance that means he might be heading to Baltimore?

 

There's always a chance. They're so early in the process right now, but as I wrote today, I think all the old presumptions are out the window.

 

Would this include Pie, as well???

 

Possibly.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Personally, I dont think much of Hill. I rank him below Pie, Guzman, and Pawalek. I believe since the first thoughts of a dunn deal, when Hendry gave up because of his unwillingness to part with Hill, he has simply been inflating his value for future trades. If we can center a tejada, abreu, dunn, wilkerson, or bradley deal around Hill, I would be quite happy. Good job Jim. (unless I am wrong and you actually turned down the dunn trade when you had to put in Hill)

 

I don't recall there ever being a Hill/Dunn trade being discussed. I do recall a comment from Bruce Miles that Hendry valued Hill so much, that he wouldn't trade him for Dunn, but that's all I recall.

 

Refresh my memory on the proposed Dunn trade that would have included Rich Hill.

 

That was last year. Hill is no longer an untouchable.

 

Music to my ears. Any chance that means he might be heading to Baltimore?

 

There's always a chance. They're so early in the process right now, but as I wrote today, I think all the old presumptions are out the window.

 

Would this include Pie, as well???

 

Possibly.

 

Bruce,

 

You're just getting our hopes up.

 

So, could you see the Cubs offering Pie, Hill, and Marshall all in a deal for Miggy?

[Bruce Miles]

Personally, I dont think much of Hill. I rank him below Pie, Guzman, and Pawalek. I believe since the first thoughts of a dunn deal, when Hendry gave up because of his unwillingness to part with Hill, he has simply been inflating his value for future trades. If we can center a tejada, abreu, dunn, wilkerson, or bradley deal around Hill, I would be quite happy. Good job Jim. (unless I am wrong and you actually turned down the dunn trade when you had to put in Hill)

 

I don't recall there ever being a Hill/Dunn trade being discussed. I do recall a comment from Bruce Miles that Hendry valued Hill so much, that he wouldn't trade him for Dunn, but that's all I recall.

 

Refresh my memory on the proposed Dunn trade that would have included Rich Hill.

 

That was last year. Hill is no longer an untouchable.

 

Music to my ears. Any chance that means he might be heading to Baltimore?

 

There's always a chance. They're so early in the process right now, but as I wrote today, I think all the old presumptions are out the window.

 

Would this include Pie, as well???

 

Possibly.

 

Bruce,

 

You're just getting our hopes up.

 

So, could you see the Cubs offering Pie, Hill, and Marshall all in a deal for Miggy?

 

I could see some version of that. Talks are in the exploratory stages at this point, and a lot will depend on what Baltimore values, how the Orioles see their chances to compete in 2006 and beyond and what other teams are offering.

[JeffH]

Bruce, I'd still like you to answer my question above about Hill and second tier guys, but I have a new one.

 

Do you think it's fair to say that Hendry would trade only one of the trio of essentially-major-league-ready position players (Murton, Cedeno, Pie) for Tejada?

 

I can't imagine him giving two of them.

 

Thanks.