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Defense aside, WAR itself is an imperfect stat. It’s certainly one of the best ways we have to measure a player’s overall contributions, but Fangraphs has Schwarber as having been twice as valuable this year as Baseball Reference does. To clarify, I’m certainly not saying Schwarber is some underrated by WAR superstar, just that there are some error bars there, and that the Cubs could use the skill set.

I agree that he probably is not a Cub still, even if they tendered him a contract in 2020. Though I think the pain level is slightly different had they received actual value in return for getting rid of him (ie Canario, Alcantara, or PCA). Regarding WAR, it is interesting to think about, and I’ve always wondered if Schwarber was the most popular player that has provided the smallest amount of WAR. I’ve got not idea how to measure something like that. I think in his case, he suffers from the fact that we still don’t really know how to accurately measure defense, and that he brings two skills to the table, drawing walks and hitting home runs. Theoretically, he would be more valuable to a team more lacking in those skills, like the Cubs, than he would be on, say, the Braves.

When the Cubs disassembled their championship core, they did the fans the kindness of getting something good back, for almost everyone. Alas, the one guy for whom they got absolutely nothing looks like the most valuable of the bunch. Image courtesy of © Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK When Kyle Schwarber launched his 19th career postseason home run into the Arizona night on Friday, he made some history. With the 403-foot blast, Schwarber passed Reggie Jackson and became MLB’s all-time leader in playoff home runs for a left-handed hitter. He added another dong Saturday, to continue his ascent. Hearing that, frankly, made me feel all sorts of emotions. Happiness, for one. I, along with many other Cubs fans, find Schwarber to be an easy player to root for. Not only does he seem like a likable person, but very few players are more fun to watch with the majestic home runs that he so consistently hits. Nostalgia, for another. I think we all feel it, with basically any player who appeared in any bit of game action for the 2016 World Series champion Chicago Cubs. I think we all feel it a bit more with certain players. Maybe even more so with Schwarber, who we all watched miraculously return to game action in that World Series after early-season knee surgery. The fact that he topped his return off with a 7-17 performance, including the hit that kickstarted the 10th-inning rally that would eventually lead to the Cubs scoring the game-winning run, was icing on the cake of an already-storybook return. Lastly, I felt a little bit of sadness and anger, over the fact that the Cubs basically let Schwarber go to save $9-10 million. We can examine all of the reasons why they may have felt the need to do that, but it’s hard not to continue to be a bit upset by it after watching him go on to launch huge playoff home runs for two other teams after the fact. That frustration is magnified when we remember that the dictate that led to his non-tender was effectively reversed a month or two later, leading to the signing of Joc Pederson for nearly identical money. Look, Schwarber is far from a perfect player. He provides negative value defensively. He strikes out far too often, and he didn’t get the bump in batting average this year that many expected with the new shift restrictions. Despite all of that, his 129 wRC+ is 27th in baseball since the Cubs jettisoned him. He has been worth 6.9 WAR, per Fangraphs, and has hit 125 home runs in that same time frame. Would you believe that each one of those numbers is better than those of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez in the same span? Willson Contreras, the other core member of the 2016 Cubs now playing for another team, does edge him slightly in WAR at 7.8, but we are at a point now where Kyle Schwarber is arguably the most relevant 2016 Cub, and that is something I am not sure many people saw coming. What makes this even harder for me is that the Cubs were 25th in baseball in overall production, by wRC+, from the designated hitter position. They sorely lacked a big home-run hitter in the middle of their order. Schwarber would fit with this current group very well. I believe that time has shown that the Cubs made the correct decision on trading Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez when they did–even if the fact that those three have had such disappointing second or third acts in their careers is partially an indictment of the team’s player-development infrastructures. I may even cover that more in depth later this offseason. But when it comes to Schwarber, I just can’t believe they let him walk for nothing. They swung and missed here. The guy with the big home run in the 2015 Wild Card game–the guy who launched a dagger into the Cardinals’ hearts, all the way to the top of the Wrigley Field scoreboard; the guy who is now the all-time postseason leader for home runs by a left-handed hitter–departed for free, simply because the Cubs didn’t want to pay him anymore. View full article

Addressing the guys you listed there: Alzolay and Fulmer combined for 121 innings this year. Given the injury histories there, I don’t think it’s fair to say the Cubs couldn’t have anticipated there’d be periods where they weren’t available, and 121 innings is a fair chunk IMO Did Thompson regress or was he misevaluated? FIP, xERA, etc. did not love his 2022 performance. Hughes (who you are correct, I completely forgot about) had a better 2022 by those metrics than Thompson did, but the advanced numbers still predicted some regression there. Fair to expect he could have eaten many more innings than he did, though. Estrada is an intriguing piece, but if you’re relying on him entering a season as a major piece of your bullpen, and not a “it’d be great if this guy performs” type, I think that’s a problem. Boxberger is definitely fair to think he would have been able to give the team much more than he did. That felt like a very safe, high floor signing. I think we’re mostly on the same page with it, and you articulated it a bit better than I did. Did they have some poor performance and injury bad luck? Absolutely. I’m not disagreeing there. But everyone has that stuff happen, and to your point at the end, if they had invested in the bullpen just a LITTLE BIT more, they would have had more options to cover those innings rather than watching Jose Cuas develop a love/hate relationship with his slider in a must win September game. The Phillies had that investment. The Cubs did not.

I won’t speak for anyone else, but when I ponder the collapse of the 2023 Chicago Cubs, I picture the three-game sweep at the hands of the Atlanta Braves during the last week of the season. What is there to learn from it? Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports Going into that series, the Cubs had a one-game lead over the Miami Marlins for the final Wild Card spot. Three games and three losses later, combined with the Marlins taking two of three from the New York Mets, the Cubs’ playoff chances were all but gone, entering the final series of the season in Milwaukee. One thing I won’t forget from that series is how, no matter how many runs the Cubs scored or how big their lead was, it never felt like it was safe. They were a pitching staff that was completely running on fumes, facing a historicly good offense. Of course, as we all know, that is exactly how things played out. In game one of that series, the Cubs failed to win after leading 6-0. Their lead in game two was a much less comfortable 3-1, however, they still managed to blow three saves in just that one game. If the Cubs hold those leads and win those games, they would have been playing in the playoffs. Sure, there was the Seiya Suzuki play, though I am not sure it would have mattered. The Cubs still would have been facing the top of Atlanta’s order in the ninth inning, with likely only a one run lead. The fact is that the Cubs had absolutely no reliable options to get outs out of the bullpen down the stretch. After watching the Philadelphia Phillies eliminate the Braves in four games in the NLDS, I couldn’t help but think about the gap between the bullpen with which the Cubs ended the season and the one that the Phillies have now. Whereas the Cubs couldn’t hold leads of 6-0 and 3-1 over the Braves in must-win games, the Phillies preserved leads of 3-0 and 3-1. In Game One of the NLDS, the Phillies used seven different pitchers to shut the Braves out at home for the first time all season. In Game Four, they used six pitchers to hold the Braves to just one run and advance to the NLCS. Overall, the Phillies used 11 pitchers to cover 35 innings in the series. They gave up just seven runs in those 35 innings. In their late-season series with the Braves, the Cubs also used 11 pitchers, but gave up 18 runs. One could point to bad luck as the reason why the Cubs struggled with their bullpen so much down the stretch. Adbert Alzolay was hurt. So was Michael Fulmer. Brad Boxberger was either injured or ineffective for essentially the entire season. Keegan Thompson was expected to be a big part of this bullpen, but he struggled to get outs any time he took the mound. My gripe with that line of thinking is that bullpens are volatile. Everyone knows this. The Phillies came into 2023 thinking that Andrew Bellatti and Connor Brogdon were going to be major parts of their bullpen, yet neither was with the major-league team by the end of the season, much less recording outs in the playoffs. The Phillies gave themselves room for error by going out and acquiring power arms over the offseason. They added Craig Kimbrel, Matt Strahm, and Gregory Soto–all high-strikeout arms, who typically have a higher floor than pitch-to-contact bullpen types. They developed Jeff Hoffman into a swing-and-miss guy by having him double his slider usage. They developed Orion Kerkering into someone whom they trust in the eighth inning of a playoff game, despite only having three career major-league innings. Maybe if Boxberger and Fulmer are healthy all year, we’re having a different conversation. Maybe it really is that simple. After all, the Cubs did steal Julian Merryweather from the Blue Jays, and he was fantastic for them at times. But even his 3.52 FIP is worse than four guys that the Phillies have coming out of their playoff bullpen. While Javier Assad gave the team more than anyone could have hoped, he isn’t exactly a power arm, by modernity’s preposterously high standards. So, while some may chalk it up to poor injury luck, I say the Cubs didn’t give themselves enough room for error, either by bringing in more reliable arms or by finding more guys on the fringes of rosters or in the minors who could get outs for the big-league team. So much has been written about the new pitching infrastructure of this organization, and we finally started seeing some of that at the major league level this season. Yet, it wasn’t enough, and for this team to make the playoffs next season, it will have to continue to improve. View full article

While the season ended on a sour note, the Chicago Cubs had plenty of standout performances in 2023. Several players exceeded expectations, and the unhappy ending didn’t unwrite those stories. Let’s crown the MVP of this year’s team. Image courtesy of Thieres Rabalo & North Side Baseball Here are the voting results for the MVP of the 2023 Chicago Cubs, as voted on by Northside Baseball contributors: Honorable Mention Ian Happ, LF Stats: .248/.360/.431 After an up-and-down first five years of his career, Happ seems finally to have found some stability and consistency in his performance. While his batting average dropped from .271 last year to .248, his walk rate jumped from 9 percent to 14.3 percent to make up the difference. His 118 wRC+ and 3.5 WAR just about mirrored last year’s totals of 120 and 3.6, according to FanGraphs. He continues to leave a bit to be desired in the power department, but at this point, this just might be the player that Happ is going forward, and that is still plenty valuable. Yan Gomes, C Stats: .267/.315/.408 So much of the veteran catcher’s value goes beyond his batting line, or his 0.9 WAR. “He’s just an unbelievable human being, he’s an unbelievable leader in the clubhouse,” Justin Steele said earlier this season. A .462 batting average in high-leverage situations, per FanGraphs, certainly helps his case here, as well. It seemed like every time the Cubs needed a big hit, Gomes cashed in. Others receiving votes: Adbert Alzolay, Kyle Hendricks, Javier Assad, Christopher Morel The Top Five 5. Seiya Suzuki, RF Stats: .285/.357/.485 Suzuki was almost certainly the most valuable player for the Cubs from the beginning of August through the end of the season, as he hit .350/.406/.667 and finally showed an ability to consistently elevate his hard contact. Unfortunately for him, this is a season-long award, and he hit .212/.282/.292 from the beginning of June through the end of July, resulting in a benching prior to his breakout. Hopefully, the Cubs get the late-season version of Suzuki for next season. 4. Dansby Swanson, SS Stats: .244/.328/.416 It feels a bit misleading to post Swanson’s batting line, as he is a player whp contributes in every facet of the game. His production at the plate was only four percent above league-average, but his 20 Outs Above Average afield led all of baseball, according to FanGraphs. His 20.3 Defensive Runs Above Average on Fangraphs, which adjusts for position, peg him as the fifth-most valuable defender in baseball this year. He was also 4.6 runs above average on the bases, which was 21st in baseball. While I am not a huge believer in “intangibles,” I think that there is also something to be said for Swanson’s attitude and work ethic. He openly advocated to Jed Hoyer that they should not be selling at the trade deadline. He has made it clear that he doesn’t settle for losing, and the Cubs couldn’t have hoped for much more from Swanson on and off the field in year one of his contract. 3. Nico Hoerner, 2B Stats: .283/.346/.383 Similar to Swanson, so much of Hoerner’s value comes beyond what he brings with the bat, where he was roughly a league-average hitter. After performing better than most thought he could at shortstop last season, Hoerner shifted to second base, where he (like Swanson) was one of the most valuable defenders in baseball. He ranked eighth in outs above average, and 20th in defensive runs above average. Hoerner also proved himself to be one of the most valuable baserunners in baseball, stealing 43 bases, more than double his previous career high. According to the Baserunning Runs Above Average stat at FanGraphs, he added about one win of value on the bases, which was second only to Corbin Carroll. It should also be noted that Hoerner was able to stay (mostly) healthy for the second season in a row, something that was a concern for him after his first few seasons of professional baseball. The Cubs have to feel good penciling Hoerner and Swanson in up the middle for the next handful of seasons. 2. Justin Steele, LHSP Stats: 16-5, 3.06 ERA, 9.14 K/9 While he will come up short in the final voting, in part thanks to a rough last few starts, Steele is worthy of all of the Cy Young Award attention that is coming his way. He followed up his breakout last year by basically continuing apace: throwing the cutter in on the hands of righties, and then utilizing his slider off of that. Steele’s 171 ⅓ innings pitched were a professional career high by quite a bit, and given the way he broke down during the stretch run, that is certainly something to monitor going forward. But his 4.9 WAR was seventh in all of baseball. These types of pitchers don’t grow on trees. Steele performed like a legitimate ace this season. 1. Cody Bellinger, CF/1B Stats: .307/.356/.525 Even the most optimistic Bellinger fan could not have foreseen his performance this season. After two straight seasons of being a significantly below-average hitter, the reasonable hope was that he could bounce back to a league-average hitter while providing defensive value and versatility. Instead, he was the 13th-best hitter in all of baseball, according to FanGraphs. What is even more fascinating about Bellinger is that he has completely reinvented himself as a hitter, posting the highest contact rates (and thus the lowest strikeout rate) of his career by a decent margin. His defensive versatility proved to be extremely valuable to the Cubs, too. With Mike Tauchman’s emergence, Bellinger being able to shift over to first base gave them the ability to play both guys at once and shore up a weak spot in the lineup and on the infield. The question, of course, is what jersey Bellinger will be wearing next season. Based on this season’s results, Bellinger deserves a huge payday. For now, we’re just appreciating the season he had for the Cubs, the one that resulted in us voting him their most valuable player. View full article

Back in April, the Cubs were fresh off of a three-game sweep of the Oakland Athletics, and had started the season 11-6. I was on vacation with my family in Florida, and specifically recall remarking to my brother while sitting on the beach that I only wanted to see the Cubs play meaningful games in September again. That, alone, would make me happy. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports He simply laughed and told me that he would remind me of this when the Cubs lose some crushing games while in the middle of a playoff race in September. Fortunately for me, he has either forgotten that this conversation happened, or just decided to be nice about it. By my early April expectations, it would be very easy to shrug our shoulders, tell ourselves that while the past few weeks of baseball stunk, the Cubs exceeded expectations anyway, and that it was still a good season. It might even make us all feel better. The issue with that is that it completely ignores the context under which the Cubs were playing baseball in September. At the time of my comment, Eric Hosmer was their starting first baseman, which should be enough to lower anyone’s expectations. Consider each of the following: Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson are both among the top 30 position players in baseball, according to FanGraphs’s WAR. Cody Bellinger has a 134 wRC+. Ian Happ is continuing to perform as he did in his career-best 2022 campaign. Seiya Suzuki, while he did struggle at times, has a 126 wRC+, and has shown the ability to be one of the best hitters in baseball. Mike Tauchman came up and played his way into an everyday role and is a valuable contributor. Christopher Morel took a step forward, for the second year in a row. Nick Madrigal proved to be a capable everyday third baseman. Miguel Amaya proved he is, at least, a valuable backup catcher at the big-league level. They added the best available rental bat at the trade deadline, in Jeimer Candelario. Justin Steele will get Cy Young votes. Kyle Hendricks got healthy and posted almost a three-win season, by FanGraphs WAR. Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks contributed in very meaningful ways. The Cubs have the fourth-best run differential in the National League. Entering play on September 7, the Cubs had an 89.8-percent chance of making the playoffs, and had a 3.5-game cushion in the Wild Card standings. Had I known each and every one of those things in April, do you think that I still would have said meaningful baseball in September would have been enough? Probably not. Did some other things go wrong? Of course. Marcus Stroman was either injured or completely ineffective for the entire second half of the season. Jameson Taillon did not have a great first season with the Cubs. The team got almost no contributions from Keegan Thompson, Brad Boxberger, or Brandon Hughes, who all figured to be valuable contributors out of the bullpen. Oh, the bullpen. Sure, the bullpen was running on absolute fumes for the final month, without Adbert Alzolay and Michael Fulmer. However, the Marlins played a good chunk of September without Eury Perez and Sandy Alcantara, two of their best pitchers. Everyone is tired and deals with injuries at this point in the season. Besides, the bullpen was the one area this front office could hang their hat on, after the way it performed the past few seasons. This year, it completely failed them. But that is a conversation for another time. The bottom line is that way more went right than wrong, and it’s so important to take advantage of that. What if any one of Swanson, Happ, Hoerner, or Steele gets injured for a good chunk of next season? What if they can’t replace Bellinger’s production, or they bring him back and he isn’t as productive? The Cubs got favorable, healthy outcomes from a majority of their most important players, and they failed to capitalize on that and make the playoffs. Regardless of preseason expectations, what their run differential was, or what their record was in one-run games, that makes the season a failure. View full article

The Cubs' offensive sparkplug and most fiery leader has been very good this season, especially in the second half. Still, there's room for improvement on what he delivers at the plate. Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports Nico Hoerner has, undeniably, had a fantastic year for the Chicago Cubs. His .285/.349/.388 batting line is slightly better than league-average, and when you combine that with his elite defense and baserunning, you have a player who is worth 4.7 WAR, according to FanGraphs, which ranks 19th in baseball. The fact that Hoerner rates that highly by WAR already makes him unique. It is exceedingly rare for a player who provides so little slug to be so valuable in baseball in 2023. Hoerner has hit nine home runs this year. Nobody else in the top 30 has hit fewer than 17. After watching Hoerner play almost every day for the Cubs for two seasons in a row, it’s safe to say most of us have a pretty good idea of who he is at the plate by now. He manages a higher batting average thanks to a strategy that basically boils down to “slap the ball somewhere on the field and then run fast.” He has recorded a Barrel, by Baseball Savant’s definition, in only 1.5 percent of his plate appearances, which is seventh-worst in MLB this season. Aaron Judge, he is not. However, if Hoerner does have one great skill as a hitter, it is his ability to put the bat on the baseball. He makes contact on 88.8 percent of swings, third-highest in baseball, according to FanGraphs. Put the ball in play, and sometimes, even the weakest contact ends up going for a hit. Perhaps because he is always putting the ball in play and he strikes out so infrequently, I always thought of Hoerner as an aggressive hitter. Thus, I was a bit surprised when I found him down at 94th of 135 players in swing rate this season on Fangraphs. For context, Ian Happ, who is generally thought of as one of the more patient hitters on the team, is only right behind him at 100th. The issue here is that Hoerner isn’t swinging at any of the pitches he should be swinging at. He has only swung at 61 percent of pitches in the strike zone this season, according to FanGraphs, 14th-lowest in all of baseball. He is near some of the most patient players in baseball–guys like Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, and Max Muncy. Now, I don’t think I need to explain to you the difference between Hoerner and those three guys, but just in case: those guys are going to combine for about 120 home runs this year. Hoerner probably won’t hit that number for his career. The other thing is that those three players, along with everyone else that swings at strikes as infrequently as Hoerner does, swing at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone. Hoerner’s 33.1 percent swing rate at pitches outside of the strike zone is 50th in baseball. I also don’t think I need to explain this to you, but here goes again: swinging at pitches in the strike zone is generally a good thing. Swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone is generally a bad thing! And the numbers back this up. According to Baseball Savant, Hoerner is hitting .324 and slugging .451 on pitches in the strike zone. He is only hitting .185 with a .226 slugging percentage on pitches outside of the strike zone. Of course, it’s not quite as easy as “swing at fewer balls and more strikes.” If it was, I’d guess Hoerner would be doing so already. To his credit, the decreased aggression in the strike zone has potentially led to some deeper counts. He has an almost league-average walk rate of 7.2 percent and a .349 on base percentage this year, both improvements on last season. At the same time, it just feels like there is a better balance to be struck. He makes contact with 80.5 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone. That’s the third-highest mark in baseball. For a player that is going to put the ball in play so often, it is imperative that they swing at pitches that they can actually do damage on. Nico Hoerner will never be a big slugger or a feared hitter. He has been a slightly above-average hitter for over two seasons now. That’s a great baseline for a player who brings so many other skills to the table. I think there still might be a little bit more potential in that bat, however. He just needs to make better swing decisions. View full article

There's hardly any good news in Cubdom right now, but (despite some ghastly mistakes that contributed to their brutal road trip) it's good to remind ourselves that good, aggressive baserunning has been a critical component of the Cubs' success this season. Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports The frustration was palpable for the Chicago Cubs this week as they lost two of three to the lowly Colorado Rockies. Despite pounding out 33 hits, the Cubs scored just 12 runs, in part because of all of the outs that were made on the bases. Seiya Suzuki was thrown out at home plate. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner were thrown out stealing. Nick Madrigal was thrown out trying to turn a double into a triple. Cody Bellinger was thrown out trying to turn a single into a double. None of those events, in a vacuum, is a big deal. They happen. But when they all happen during a series loss to one of the worst teams in baseball while in the middle of a playoff race, those mistakes are suddenly viewed under a microscope and talked about for much longer than usual. FanGraphs measures baserunning value through their BsR stat. This stat takes all base running plays–stolen bases, caught stealing, taking extra bases, et cetera–and rolls them into one handy number to tell you how many runs above (or below) average a team or player has been worth on the bases. The thing is, by that one metric, the Cubs have actually been the best baserunning team in baseball this season. BsR currently has them as having been worth 15.5 runs above average, which is 0.9 runs above second-place Tampa Bay. Using the calculation that roughly every 10 or so runs is worth one win, the Cubs have added well over one win to their total this year with their performance on the bases. Funnily enough, this week’s opponent, the Colorado Rockies, rank last here, as they have been 18 runs below average on the bases, costing them almost two wins. The team’s high standing in BsR is thanks to having a few elite baserunners, without any major minuses on the basepaths. Nico Hoerner himself has been worth almost an entire win on the bases alone. He has been worth 8.6 runs above average; that is fifth in all of baseball. Dansby Swanson is 22nd with four runs above average, and Cody Bellinger is right behind him with 3.8 runs above average. Ian Happ also finds himself on the fringes of the top 30. He’s 35th in baseball with 2.9 runs above average. As a side note, since these two are inextricably linked in my mind thanks to both being a part of the 2022 free agent shortstop class: Carlos Correa has been worth 9.2 runs below average, according to BsR, and that is last in all of baseball. So in addition to performing better than Correa in the field and at the plate, Dansby Swanson has been well over one win better than Correa on the bases. On the flip side, the Cubs’ worst baserunner has been Seiya Suzuki. He has been 2.1 runs below average this year. Yan Gomes has been 1.6 runs below average, but that is (mostly) to be expected from a catcher. The only other players that are still on the team that have been below-average base runners are Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom, but neither has been worse than one run below average. Pete Crow-Armstrong has actually been worth 0.4 runs below average already, but due to small sample size and the fact that most are confident he will add value in this area, I am willing to excuse that one. To be clear, this shouldn’t make any of the losses this past week any less frustrating. Simply put, you have to take care of business when you’re playing one of the worst teams in baseball in the middle of a playoff race. However, maybe it makes the baserunning mistakes a bit more palatable, to understand that the team might not have come this far at all if not for good baserunning throughout the season. The Cubs probably should have been less aggressive on the basepaths in Colorado. On the other hand, they were aggressive on the bases, as they have been all year, and it just didn’t work out. Clearly, over a larger sample size, it has worked out. Sometimes, that is just how baseball works. View full article

I considered getting into this but ultimately decided not to. Fangraphs does measure this. Steele is the only starting pitcher in the positive with a positive 1 run gained. . Hendricks is the worst offender, they estimate he’s cost the Cubs -3 runs with his inability to hold runners on. Which is kinda crazy to think about because he used to have such a good pickoff move. Everyone else slots between those two.

Not for 30 years has the running game been as important a part of baseball as it is in 2023. After a series that exposed the Cubs' deficiencies there, it's worth asking: How much is the inability to stop opposing runners hurting them? Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports When the Chicago Cubs decided to go a different direction with the catcher position and let Willson Contreras walk in free agency this past offseason, it became clear that there were skills that they valued at the catcher position that Contreras did not offer. Framing, game-calling, and an ability to work with a pitching staff on a strategic and an emotional level were just a few of the things that were mentioned often. I’ll be honest: I thought this would be something that was discussed significantly more throughout the course of this season than it has been, particularly with Contreras now playing for the St. Louis Cardinals. However, between the way Yan Gomes has played and the emergence of Miguel Amaya, I haven’t been thinking about this nearly as much as I thought I would be. That was true, at least, until this past series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Through Saturday’s loss, the Diamondbacks racked up 10 stolen bases in three games, to just two for the Cubs. Combine that with the fact that the Cubs were also caught stealing two times and the Diamondbacks only once, and I have definitely found myself thinking back on Contreras. Don’t get me wrong: it seems like the Cubs made the correct decision with Contreras, all things considered. However, if there was one thing Contreras was good at defensively, it was his ability to control the running game. With the Cubs losing two straight one-run games to a team that is so clearly better at this than they are, it has been frustrating to watch as a fan. Thankfully, we have stats to quantify this. Baseball Savant estimates how many runs a catcher gains or loses for his team with Catcher Stealing Runs. The Cubs, of course, have primarily used three catchers this season: Yan Gomes, Miguel Amaya, and Tucker Barnhart. All of those catchers have been worth -1 Catcher Stealing Run, meaning they have combined to cost the Cubs three runs this season with their ability (or, rather, minor inability) to control the running game. The stark contrast that has been on display this weekend is mostly thanks to the guy catching for the other team, Gabriel Moreno. Moreno, according to this stat, is the best catcher in baseball when it comes to throwing out runners trying to steal. He has been worth six runs, which is two more than the next guys on the list in Connor Wong and Shea Langeliers. To complete the overall comparison, old friend Willson Contreras has been worth 3 Catcher Stealing Runs. So we have essentially been watching two guys for the Cubs who are slightly below average when it comes to preventing steals against a guy for the Diamondbacks who is the best in baseball. Of course that is going to make Gomes and Amaya look bad, comparatively. How much does this matter? Converting runs to wins varies according to the run-scoring environment. FanGraphs estimates that nine or 10 marginal runs usually equate to a marginal win in the standings by the end of the year. So to this point in the season, if the three Cubs catchers have combined to cost them three runs, that has only cost the Cubs about a third of a win. The dropoff from Contreras to Gomes, Amaya, and Barnhart has cost the Cubs about two-thirds of a win. Lastly, the difference between Moreno and the catching trio for the Cubs has been worth about one additional win for the Diamondbacks over the 140ish games that have been played to this point. To wrap this up with a nice bow, the Cubs are definitely worse at controlling the running game than they would have been with Contreras behind the plate. This has definitely been on display this weekend. Although most catchers would look bad when compared to Moreno, over the course of the season, this has likely only cost the Cubs a few fractions of a win. While that would certainly be nice to have in the middle of a playoff chase, there are plenty of other positives that both Gomes and Amaya bring to the table to forgive them for being slightly below-average in this one area. View full article

The Cubs are on a bit of a hot streak when it comes to bringing along pitchers, of all ages and ability levels. Friday, they're going to throw up a Kyle Korver-level heat check. Image courtesy of © Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports With four games in three days this weekend in Cincinnati, and with rosters expanding at the same time, it was inevitable that the Cubs were going to call up some reinforcements from the minor leagues. That’s not to mention the fact that, given the way the pitching staff has struggled since the All-Star break, some fresh arms are pretty desperately needed. All eyes were on Luke Little, who has pitched to a 1.62 ERA and has struck out 40.8 percent of hitters since getting the call to Triple A, or Ben Brown, one of the team’s best pitching prospects who is making his way back from a minor injury. However, instead of those two, the Cubs opted to bring up Shane Greene, according to Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The Cubs signed Greene, 34, to a minor-league contract back in June. After posting a 3.25 ERA in 221 ⅓ relief innings from 2017 to 2020, Greene pitched to a 7.09 ERA in just 26 ⅔ innings over the past two seasons. The interesting thing about Greene is that he has been starting games in Iowa. He hasn’t started a big league game since 2016, and was most recently a one-inning matchup guy at that level, but he’ll either start or work a starter-like number of innings Friday against the Reds. Greene has a 2.16 ERA in 16 ⅔ innings with the I-Cubs, and he hasn’t allowed an earned run over nine innings in his last two starts. He is striking out 10.9 batters per nine innings, and walking 4.9. He has a 3.77 FIP and a 4.87 xFIP. The even more interesting thing about Greene, to me, is what he and his major-league performance will indicate about the pitching infrastructure that the Cubs have. Clearly, the Cubs see something in Greene. Signing a previously successful veteran reliever to see if he has anything left in the tank is not unusual. Deciding you’re going to stretch him out to start games, which he hasn’t done in seven years, is so. We’ve heard about the revamped pitching infrastructure, the pitch lab, and all the money that has been funneled into that area of player development. Now, it’s time for the Cubs to show the results of that. The emergence of Javier Assad has been a great start. Bringing up Jordan Wicks and having him contribute immediately is also a great sign. Reinforcements from the minor leagues and scrap-heap players contributing for good Cubs teams almost never happened during the last contention window. That is why it stalled out so quickly. I am not saying I have especially high expectations for Greene. Admittedly, I am not crazy about debuting someone who had a 25.6-percent ground ball rate in the minors at the home run haven that is Great American Ballpark. Yet, the Cubs need pitching help so badly that Greene doesn’t need to be anything more than average to be a godsend for this team. Justin Steele, Julian Merryweather, and Adbert Alzolay can’t pitch every single game, even though I am sure we would all like them to. The bottom line is that this is what good organizations do. They identify players available almost for free, get them into their player development system, and get useful contributions out of them. The Cubs have talked the talk about their pitcher development. With Shane Green coming up in the middle of a playoff race, it is time for them to walk the walk. View full article

There are two muffins in an oven. One says to the other, "Holy crap, it's hot in here." The other one says, "Yeah, that's radiation from Seiya Suzuki." Image courtesy of © Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports When the Chicago Cubs traded for Jeimer Candelario in late July, it became immediately clear that someone was going to have to accept less playing time going forward. While Candelario slotted in nicely at both infield corners, the Cubs also had a healthy and well-performing Nick Madrigal, and were often shifting Cody Bellinger to first base in order to play Mike Tauchman in center field. Having hit just .212/.282/.296 from the start of June to the end of July, Seiya Suzuki was the most logical person to bench. From August 1 to 8, Suzuki only started two games and took nine total plate appearances. On August 9, he got the start in New York against the Mets, and since then, we have seen a completely different version of Suzuki. Suzuki has hit .390/.431/.763 (with four home runs) in 14 starts in the stretch of games beginning on August 9. Last we checked in with him in early July, he was hitting the ball incredibly hard, but into the ground way too often. Suzuki’s average launch angle in that June-to-early-August stretch was 9.1 degrees, according to FanGraphs. Since then? It’s 11.4 degrees. That 2.3 degrees of difference matters, sure, but that jump would take him from something like 115th in baseball in average launch angle, to about 90th, where he sits now, according to Baseball Savant. He certainly isn’t a Max Muncy-level launch angle king now. Nor can we look at that increase in average launch angle and consider that to be the reason why his production has exploded in the past few weeks. In his bad stretch, Suzuki ran a ground ball rate of 55.3 percent on hard-hit balls, or balls that were hit with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher, per FanGraphs. Since his resurgence in New York, though, just 16.7 percent of his hard-hit baseballs are on the ground. A whopping 66.7 percent of them have been fly balls. Obviously, hard-hit balls can do significantly more damage in the air than they can on the ground. Now we’re cooking with gas! With significantly more of his fly balls being hit hard, Suzuki has a 182 wRC+ on fly balls during this hot stretch, compared to just a 93 wRC+ on fly balls this season prior to that. He is now running the highest swing rate of his entire career, as he is swinging at 48.9 percent of pitches, up from 40 percent prior to August 9. His highest swing rate over any 15-game stretch prior to this was last August, at 47.6 percent. Suzuki has become more aggressive in seeking out pitches that he can drive in the air, rather than either trying to work a walk, or waiting for an absolutely perfect pitch that was never coming. He has reallocated his hard contact to being in the air rather than on the ground, and is reaping the rewards of that. As always, the question is whether it will continue or not. Suzuki’s added aggression has caused his walk rate to drop, though he’s certainly still accepted them when pitchers have treated him cautiously. I’d venture to guess that pitchers will nibble increasingly often against him, to see if he can combine his new, aggressive approach, with his previously-demonstrated ability to draw walks at an above-average rate. But for a team in the playoff race, you have to ride the hot hand while you have one, and the Cubs are certainly doing that. Suzuki probably won’t continue with an 1.194 OPS. At the same time, this is also one of the better stretches of his career, and is very encouraging for his long-term projection. If you’ve never seen the 2002 movie Signs, well, then, it’s my opinion that you’re not missing much. The relevancy here is that it is a major plot point to the movie that Joaquin Phoenix’s character, Merrill, needs to swing away. This also seems to have been the Cubs suggestion to Seiya Suzuki. Swing away, Seiya! View full article

Don't let the glasses fool you. Lately, Javier Assad is pitching more like Super Man than like Clark Kent. Image courtesy of © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports The Chicago Cubs’ starting rotation has hit a rough patch. After a strong first half in which they had a 4.01 ERA (good for 10th-best in baseball, according to FanGraphs), the production has fallen dramatically in the second half. Entering Tuesday, their 5.54 ERA from starters since the All-Star break was third-worst in baseball. Thankfully, this has been relatively little-discussed, because the offense is scoring almost 6.5 runs per game in the second half, and the team has been winning. However, I don’t think the offense can keep performing at this level, and with the Cubs fighting for their playoff lives, they need all of the help that they can get on the pitching side. Enter: Javier Assad. The 25-year-old had pitched to a 0.47 ERA in 19 ⅓ innings from July 1 onward before being inserted into the starting rotation for an injured Marcus Stroman earlier this month. After posting a 2.53 ERA across 10 ⅔ innings in his two starts since, Assad has a very secure place in the starting crew, with Drew Smyly relegated to relief work and Marcus Stroman still shelved while he unkinks the right side of his kinetic chain. The unimpressive thing about Assad is that he doesn’t miss bats. Since July 1, his 6.8-percent whiff rate is 157th of 161 pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings, per FanGraphs. His 22.1-percent strikeout rate is slightly more respectable, though, at 84th. How does he manage that? Hitters facing Assad have a 63.8-percent in-zone swing rate in that period of time, and that is 19th-lowest in baseball. When you aren’t going to miss bats, you have to manage contact quality. If hitters are taking a lot of strikes against Assad, this tells me that he is doing a good job of keeping them guessing and off-balance. For comparison, Kyle Hendricks, who is the gold standard at managing contact quality, is nearby on that leaderboard, with a 62.6-percent zone swing rate, and for his career, that figure sits at 62.1 percent. Assad’s 87.6-MPH average exit velocity is 34th-lowest in baseball since July 1, and his 29.9-percent hard-hit rate is 49th-lowest. By these measures, he has been good, but not elite, at managing contact quality. Where he has been elite is that only 29.9 percent of balls in play against him since July 1 have been pulled. That is third-best in baseball during that time frame. Why is this important? MLB hitters as a whole have a 169 wRC+ on balls that are pulled, according to FanGraphs. On balls hit to the center or opposite fields, they have a 115 wRC+. Sixty-three percent of homeruns hit this year have been to the pull side. Assad succeeds by staying away from a hitter's power. This is backed up by two other stats: Assad’s home runs allowed per nine innings (0.89) this year is 26th in baseball, among the 162 pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings. This could be luck, sure, but over the entire season, his expected isolated power against is 96th of 366 pitchers who have faced at least 150 hitters this season, per Baseball Savant. Will he continue to prevent runs at the rate that he has? Probably not. Since he pitches to contact, he is going to give up more base hits than he has been recently. Baseball Savant still gives him a 4.53 expected ERA, and he also walks way too many hitters. Not to keep making this comparison, but the counterargument to Assad’s expected numbers would be that Kyle Hendricks has always far outperformed his expected ERA. So, while Assad will likely regress to the mean somewhat, it’s not insane to think he might just be an average to slightly above-average pitcher. At this point, it is clear that he at least deserves a shot to prove that. View full article