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Cody Bellinger and the Chicago Cubs were a hand-in-glove fit coming into last offseason. The Cubs needed a short-term center fielder, and Bellinger was looking for a short-term, change-of-scenery deal where he could rebuild some of his value. Thus, the Cubs and Bellinger agreed to a deal last December that would likely have Bellinger patrolling center-field for the Cubs for just one year. Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports The thinking went that, if the Cubs could turn Cody Bellinger back into an above-average offensive player, they would either deal him at the trade deadline for prospects, or he would be a key player for a playoff contender. If Bellinger was still the below-average offensive player that he was for the previous two seasons, he would still provide value defensively, and the two parties could move on after the season, or at the trade deadline. No harm, no foul. Fast forward to July, and most Cubs fans would tell you that they are more than happy with Bellinger’s performance. His .303/.359/.502 slash line is 29 percent better than average, according to wRC+ on Fangraphs. Despite missing a month with a knee injury, his 2.0 WAR is 3rd on the team among position players, behind only Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner. Dig a little bit deeper into the numbers, however, and there are several causes for concerns regarding Bellinger’s performance. Baseball Savant calculates expected batting average and expected slugging percentage based on batted-ball data (exit velocity, launch angle, etc.) for each player. Bellinger is fifth among players with at least 150 plate appearances with a .052 difference between his batting average and expected batting average, and fourth with a .105 difference between his real and expected slugging averages. He has an expected batting average of .251, and an expected slugging of .397. Basically, he has been one of the luckiest players in baseball to this point. What is the reason for his poor expected performance? Bellinger’s average exit velocity of 86.5 miles per hour is the lowest of his career, as is his 5.2-percent Barrel rate–even lower than each of his past two seasons, when he was one of the worst offensive players in baseball. In good news, he has cut his strikeout percentage from about 27 percent over the past two seasons to 17.7 percent this year, so it’s reasonable to expect some jump in batting average. But given the poorer quality of his batted balls, the jump shouldn't be as great as it has been, especially given that Bellinger is not someone who historically outperforms his expected statistics. With home runs Thursday and Friday, Bellinger might be hitting a stride he didn’t have a chance to hit earlier this season, thanks to the cold weather of April and the knee injury in May. His expected slugging percentage has been above-average over his past 50 plate appearances: This all combines to make Bellinger one of the most interesting Cubs to follow going forward. At this point, it’s clear he will likely never recover his MVP form. He just doesn’t hit the ball with the same authority that he once did. Are his numbers this year for real, or has he just had some very fortunate batted-ball luck? If the Cubs decide to trade him, what kind of value would they receive? Can he maintain his recent hot stretch and carry the Cubs’ offense for a bit? There is likely not another player on the Cubs whose results could vary so wildly going forward. How Bellinger performs will likely determine either if the Cubs can get back into the playoff race, or if they have a successful trade deadline, should they decide to sell. View full article

Right off the bat, I have to come clean about one thing: I have always been fascinated by Nick Madrigal. He was a top draft pick, and a top prospect, because of exactly one tool: his hit tool. The fact that the one tool he did possess is the one skill that this era of baseball is straying further from made him even more fascinating. Image courtesy of © Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports Like most who follow the Cubs closely, my reaction when I read that the Cubs were going to be giving Nick Madrigal reps at third-base during Spring Training was to laugh. Most third basemen are large, slugging types–like Patrick Wisdom, for instance. Madrigal, at 5’8”, 175 lbs, and with two major-league home runs to his name, didn’t exactly fit that bill. Through the first couple months of the season, he wasn’t doing much to prove me wrong. Through May 21st, he was hitting just .247/.286/.301, and thus he was rightfully sent down to Triple-A Iowa. After posting a .488 batting average in AAA, Madrigal returned on June 9, and has since proven himself more than worthy of at least an extended look at third base for the Cubs, on both sides of the baseball. Let’s start with the defense. Madrigal has been worth 3 Outs Above Average at third base. That rates 12th in all of baseball, among the 56 players who have played at least 100 innings at the position. This is despite the fact that he has only played 255 innings at the position. Wisdom, for comparison, is at -3. For a player of Madrigal’s stature, you would think his arm strength would be the concern moving over from second to third. Per Baseball Savant, Madrigal averages 85.1 miles per hour on his throws across the diamond, just behind the major-league average of 86.1 mph. Wisdom, for another comparison, is averaging 87.7 mph this season. With the arm being only a bit below-average, Madrigal has otherwise just been solid. He has the quickness to get to the baseball. Baseball Savant estimates that he has converted 77% of balls hit towards him into outs, with the expected success rate (based on the speed and trajectory of batted balls hit his way) being 73%. On the other side of the baseball, Madrigal has hit .327/.421/.408 since his return from Iowa. The high on-base percentage is buoyed by 4 hit by pitches, which is probably not a repeatable skill. Despite this, he is still sporting a walk rate of 6.7% since his return from the minors, compared to 3.1% beforehand, according to Fangraphs. He has started laying off more balls outside the strike zone, so there might be something to that elevated walk rate. He swung at 35.5% of balls outside the strike zone before his demotion, and he has dropped that number to 29.5% since his return, per Fangraphs. Pitchers, as a result, will likely start filling the strike zone with pitches to counter this. Since Madrigal won’t punish them with a home run, they don’t have much to lose in doing so. The hope, then, is that Madrigal’s contact quality will start to get louder, and the batting average might even rise. He had his first barrel, which is a ball that is hit at an optimum launch angle and exit velocity, last weekend in London. It remains to be seen if this solid play will continue. But Madrigal has, at the very least, earned himself an extended look at third base. With Wisdom unproductive even before he was hurt, and with Miles Mastrobuoni headed back to Iowa himself, the Cubs might not have any other options, anyway. View full article