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Last year, the Cubs were a very good baserunning team. Will that success and aggressiveness carry over to 2024? Image courtesy of © Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports The 2023 iteration of the Chicago Cubs was one of the best baserunning teams in Major League Baseball. FanGraphs’ Base Running metric (BsR) takes the following into account as part of its calculation: Ultimate Base Running (UBR – a measure of each baserunning event) Weighted Stolen Base Runs (wSB – the contributions of a player stealing bases measured by runs) Weighted Grounded into Double Play Runs (wGDP – essentially the ability of a player to stay out of double plays) Last year’s Cubs came in with a 7.8 BsR figure, which ranked ninth in the league. Narrowing the field to only National League counterparts, they ranked fifth. The team’s 140 steals ranked eighth among big league squads, with their eight-most caught stealing (34) easily attributable to that aggressiveness. They also hit into the second-fewest double plays (95), with only Pittsburgh’s 92 sitting lower. It made sense within the composition of last year’s roster. Nico Hoerner was a stolen base demon with 43 steals (fifth in the league), followed by Cody Bellinger’s 20 and Ian Happ’s 14. Miles Mastrobuoni (13) & Nick Madrigal (10) each hit double digits, with another host of players contributing a few swipes to the effort. With that group’s offensive contrast of on-base and contact ability against a lack of power and ending on the higher side of GB%, getting runners in motion was a reasonable tool for the team to generate offense. Despite minimal roster turnover, it’s a strategy that hasn’t carried over into the subsequent season. Not that that’s super unique to the Cubs. As of this writing, the Cubs have just a pair of steals. Mind you, they aren’t trailing the rest of the league by a wide margin. A few clubs have just three to date. But none of those teams were as active on the basepaths as the Cubs were last season. They also have only two caught stealing, leaving very little indication of any aggression in that facet of the game thus far. This brings us to one important point and one important question: The point is that just because the Cubs aren’t attempting to get runners moving at the same rate as 2023 doesn’t mean they aren’t demonstrating quality on the bases. Our friend, Brett Taylor, over at Bleacher Nation, aggregated a few details about their baserunning performance to date. Those details include the fact that the Cubs are moving runners from first to third at the highest rate in baseball, in addition to leading the field in Statcast’s XBR comprehensive baserunning metric by a fairly wide margin (a measure by which they were tied with Atlanta as the league’s fifth-best baserunning team in 2023). The question is whether the Cubs must be aggressive on the basepaths to generate sustainable offensive success. Given the overall lack of roster turnover, this seems a valid question based on last year’s stolen base output. At a quick glance, however, steals don’t necessarily equate to more production. Not directly, at least. The top five teams in steals last year were as follows: Cincinnati (190), Arizona (166), Kansas City (163), Tampa Bay (160), and Cleveland (151). Those teams ranked ninth, 15th, 23rd, fourth, and 27th in the league in runs scored, respectively. Only Tampa Bay (fourth again) and Cincinnati (10th) sat in the top 10 in on-base percentage. Only the Rays were in the top 10 in hitting with runners on, as well. For those teams, it would appear that speed on the bases didn’t correlate with an increase in productivity. The Cubs' offensive success in the current season is not solely dependent on steals. They are in the top five, with runners on in wRC+ (140), K% (16.5), and BB% (14.2). They’re seventh in average (.290) and ISO (.193). Their ability to provide quality plate appearances with runners on and subsequently move those runners, especially given the first-to-third note provided by Brett in the above article, suggests that steals are not a necessity for them. Their strategy of working counts and working deeper into the lineup allows them to generate runs even without incorporating the speed element. The fact that steals are down across the league only furthers the Cubs’ case for not demonstrating the same aggressiveness as last year. Without a genuinely comprehensive lineup, steals are almost a futile endeavor for some clubs. A peek at the team's stolen base leaders over the last few seasons doesn’t present any real correlation with run production. Many of the frontrunners in that category are much farther down the leaderboard in runs scored. However, a starting nine that runs deep in their ability to turn in quality PAs will see runs manifest in a much more organic way. This is what we’ve seen with the Cubs in the early going. Does this mean the Cubs are content not to demonstrate aggressiveness in the longer 2024 term? Perhaps not. After all, their real go-getter in the SB game, Nico Hoerner, is off to a wildly slow start. Maybe once he shows up on the bases at a higher frequency, there’ll be at least a marginal shift. In the interim, though, I think we continue to see the Cubs play it as conservatively as possible in that sense, which seems to be…just fine. View full article

The whole Chicago Cubs lineup seems to have a clear idea of what they want to do in each plate appearance. Their shortstop, highest-paid player, and steady leader might be the player thriving most on that intentional mentality. Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports Earlier this week, I raved about the Chicago Cubs’ offensive approach to start 2024. From top to bottom, the lineup looks like a group of professional hitters, ready to wear down opposing starters and chew through their bullpens. After doing it against the Los Angeles Dodgers throughout the weekend, they did it again to old friend Yu Darvish in San Diego on Monday night. The outcome of that game notwithstanding, Darvish threw 65 pitches across three innings as the Cubs notched as many hard-hit balls as whiffs (seven apiece). Fixed in the middle of that offensive battery is Dansby Swanson. The Cubs’ shortstop is off to a .270/.378/.514 start through 45 plate appearances, walking more than 15 percent of the time and hitting for considerable power. His walk rate and ISO put him in the top 30 among current qualifiers entering Tuesday's games; his Hard Hit% – at an even 50.0 – ranked sixth overall. It’s likely an unsustainable start, but it mirrors his strong April from last year fairly closely. After the season’s first month in ‘23, Swanson was hitting .286 and reaching base at a .412 clip, largely thanks to a walk rate near 18 percent. There was no power to speak of (.061 ISO), but he was making solid contact. At 9.9%, his soft contact rate in the first month was his second-lowest in any month-long stretch last season. That start ended up being unsustainable, not because he was doing anything outlandish from the jump, but because he got away from what makes Swanson such a threat at the plate: he was inconsistent in his aggressiveness against the fastball. Last September, I wrote at Pitcher List about the enigmatic month-to-month performance that has been a hallmark of Swanson's career. Many Atlanta fans felt the need to point out to me – in as condescending a fashion as possible – that Swanson’s offensive game is prone to variance. That variance is borne out of his inability to maintain a consistent approach. This is most notable in his insistence on hacking at non-hard stuff from opposing pitchers. We shouldn't expect opposing pitchers to approach Swanson with a majority of fastballs in every plate appearance, especially given his prowess against that pitch type. But his down months aligned with his swing tendencies; when Swing% against other pitch types far exceeded Swing% against hard stuff, the overall output went down. This fairly obvious element of Swanson’s offensive game is also what has me juiced about this start. Unsustainable? Sure. Encouraging, still? You bet. To date, Swanson is swinging at fastballs 43.4 percent of the time. The next-closest umbrella category is offspeed stuff, at 37.9 percent. That’s exactly what you want. His Hard Hit% against the former is an obscene 69.2 percent. Perhaps more importantly, though, he’s demonstrating a keener awareness of the strike zone. His overall Swing% sits at just 39.9 percent to date, including only 19.4 percent on pitches outside the strike zone. Fastballs are more likely to be in the strike zone than are breaking or offspeed pitches. In what is surely an oversimplification, this trend indicates to me that Swanson has been successful in identifying fastballs and prioritizing those in swings, more so than in previous years. Even better? That trend comes with opposing pitchers throwing him fewer fastballs. At 46.6 percent, it’s the lowest rate of fastballs seen in his career to date. With that in mind, nothing about Swanson’s start is surprising. He’s feasting on fastballs, as he’s set out to do for his entire career. The difference, at this point, is that he appears to be succeeding. We don’t know the source or whether that component is sustainable, especially given how much volatility has prevailed in his offensive output in his career. One imagines with the Cubs’ approach running this deep, though, the broader context of the lineup could offer him more opportunity at sustainability than he’s ever had. View full article

Facing as stern an early test as the season can offer, the Chicago Cubs answered with an awesome offensive display this weekend against the Dodgers. It was their approach at the plate that stood out most. Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports You can’t glean a ton from a three-game series early in the year. You can glean even less when the series finale is plagued by the field conditions that the weather wrought on a Sunday afternoon at Wrigley Field. Nevertheless, it’s difficult to look at the outcomes of the weekend set against the Los Angeles Dodgers and not get excited about the prospects for this Chicago Cubs team. After all, this was the measuring stick at this point in the year. With all due respect to the defending champions down in Texas, it was the Dodgers who acquired seemingly everyone over the winter, started 7-2, and featured an early +15 run differential heading into the weekend. The Dodgers, with Mookie Betts looking like the best player in baseball and sporting massive stuff from their starters on the mound. You don’t put too much stock into a series at this juncture, but you also want to see how your team can hang. Early on, it didn’t look great. With only modest additions over the winter, nobody places the Cubs within the upper tier of the league. A potential NL Central division champion? Sure. But that’s kind of where it ends. That perception was compounded by the Dodgers tagging Kyle Hendricks for a pair of runs in the first inning on Friday, before Bobby Miller promptly struck out the side in the bottom half of the inning. The vibe at that point was, “Well, yeah, this is kind of how this will probably go.” Almost immediately, however, the Cubs shifted the flow of the game back in their favor (he said, trying to avoid using the word momentum at all costs). The offense kept putting in the work on Friday, even as the Dodgers kept banging at the door of a comeback. Even a loss on Saturday couldn’t dampen the home nine, so the rain tried to do so on Sunday. Still, the Cubs thumped Los Angeles up and down the box score. Taking two of three from the Dodgers – at any point in the year – adds a certain level of moral victory to the black-and-white one that goes into the standings. Stealing one would’ve done so. Taking two in the most assertive fashion possible feeds into an unquantifiable level of confidence. If we are to quantify it, though, and lean into the idea that the Cubs put on an auspicious display over the weekend, we can attribute that all almost directly to the quality of their plate appearances. Throughout the lineup, the team was an absolute nightmare for Dodger pitchers to deal with. On Friday, Miller ended up throwing 58 pitches in 1 2/3 innings. He didn’t escape the second, after the Cubs put it on him. Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw 80 pitches across five frames (though dazzling ones) on Saturday. To close out the weekend, they made Gavin Stone throw 77 in just three innings of work. In 9 2/3 innings – which, on its own merit, says something about the Cubs throughout the weekend – Dodgers starters threw 215 pitches. It wasn’t so much that the Cubs were able to cash in their high-level plate discipline for walks. Sure, they walked six times on Friday, but then only matched that in the final two games of the series combined. What they did, instead, was parlay that approach into consistent, high-quality contact. Their Hard Hit% in the three games went 37.0, 54.5, and 43.5. The rate in the second and third games far exceeded that of the Dodgers’ all-world lineup. Obviously, that’s impressive on its own. There’s a conversation to be had about the Cubs’ approach to pitching against the LA lineup on the other side, but zeroing in on the team’s own lineup really speaks to what this team is attempting to do at the plate. While that three-game sample demonstrated their commitment to patience, the broader picture thus far speaks to exactly the same concept. The Cubs lead the league in walk rate, with a 12.7% mark ahead of the second-place New York Yankees and their 12.1% clip. Their on-base percentage is tied with Texas for tops in the league. Only the Kansas City Royals (38.7) & Los Angeles Angels (37.9) are making hard contact at a higher rate than the Cubs (36.4), and that's on a per-batted ball basis, rather than a per-plate appearance one. The North Siders are seeing 3.94 pitches per plate appearance, which is above the league average. The individual standouts further this narrative. Ian Happ is at 4.6 pitches per trip to the dish, walking at a rate of 16.3%, and reaching base at a .442 clip. Dansby Swanson (4.5), Michael Busch (4.2), and Seiya Suzuki (4.1) are all well above the individual average mark for P/PA (3.9). All four are in the top 35 among 207 qualifying position players in Hard Hit%. Simply put, the respective approaches that we saw from Cubs hitters over the weekend were microcosms of what they’ve turned in through the first week-plus of regular season action. That’s exactly what they need to do on that side of the ball. We’ve (I’ve?) spilled a lot of digital ink discussing how the Cubs need to be excellent on defense, in order to support a largely soft-tossing pitching staff. Similarly, the offense needs to bring a “grind” approach to their plate appearances in order to generate offense for a group that isn’t as stocked with raw talent or star power as several others throughout the league. Such an approach is how this team is capable of hanging around with some of the very best in the league. That level of diligence manifesting as confidence in their plate appearances is a nightmare for opposing pitchers; the Dodgers are now keenly aware of this, and the Cubs have an opportunity to continue the trend against at least three or four additional contenders through the rest of the month. Whose at-bats have stood out to you most in the season's first 10 days? What do you still want to see the team do better or differently? Join the conversation below, as we await a late game for the Cubs on the West Coast. View full article

The Chicago Cubs just might have an infielder with 40-homer upside, but without the hulking physique of the game's other great sluggers. Sound familiar? Not so fast. Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports Javier Báez is one of my favorite players to wear a Chicago Cubs uniform. I know I am not unique in that regard. With that in mind, it’s worth noting that nothing said herein about his output or skill set is meant to disparage the player. At some point, though, he locked in who he is, for better and worse In the field or on the basepaths, he created moments on a baseball diamond that you were sure you had never seen before. While the timing of his trade to New York aligned with the departures of much of the rest of the team’s championship core, the void he left just felt larger (save for Anthony Rizzo, whose trade left a different type of absence). There was a level of eagerness and anticipation that vanished from this lineup and has been difficult to replicate since. That's why the comparisons between Báez and Christopher Morel seemed at least mildly appropriate as they gained steam last season. A young, charismatic presence. A product of the Cubs’ own system. Intense swings. Loud contact. Genuine emotion on the field. It made a certain degree of sense at the time, as Morel completed his breakout in 2023. The more tangible components of their respective games reinforced the comparison. This specifically manifested in their free-swinging style. On three occasions, Báez has posted a strikeout rate over 30 percent. Morel has done it in each of the last two seasons. As a Cub, Báez posted an ISO of at least .250 twice. Morel did it last year. Big power, bigger whiffs. You could argue it’s natural that the two would be juxtaposed with one another in a Cubs context. Those comparisons seem less appropriate now, for two main reasons on opposite sides of the ball. Let’s knock out the defensive comparison first. Báez has largely always been a plus-defender. He’s never registered as a below-average glove by OAA, and only once fell on the wrong side of 0 according to DRS at shortstop. Morel hasn’t found a defensive home, and has struggled early on in adapting to a more permanent spot at third base. Of course, that aspect was never the reason for the comparison. It was always about the offense. At the plate, Báez never appeared to make the adjustment with regard to plate discipline. If anything, as his career has unfolded, his approach has gotten markedly worse.. His career strikeout rate sits at 27.9 percent. He’s walked at a clip south of 5 percent. After chasing more than 40 percent of pitches outside the zone early in his career, he’s exceeded 46 percent in that category each of the last four seasons. Early on in 2024, he’s over 55 percent in terms of chase rate. His inability to rein in the impulse to swing has resulted in steadily declining contact quality, as well. In 2022, Báez ranked 165th out of 207 hitters with at least 400 plate appearances in Hard Hit% (26.8). Last year, he was 183rd out of 212 (28.4). He posted identical groundball rates of 49.9% in each of the two seasons. While the Cubs were willing to allow Báez to compensate for his obscene power with the shortcomings of his game, those shortcomings have taken the wheel in the years that followed. It’s left very little value from the bat. Conversely, Morel’s offensive game is maturing into something almost entirely dissimilar to that of Báez (if it wasn’t already). Last year, Javy had the worst chase rate in MLB. He’s also seen 3.66 pitches per plate appearance for his career, including figures of 3.55 and 3.60 in each of the last two seasons. Morel, meanwhile, sits 43rd percentile in chase rate (not great, but not Báez), and is at 3.86 P/PA appearance after two full seasons of big-league experience. Morel’s chase rate, at 32.4 percent in each of his two seasons, is miles lower than the 45.0 percent figure Báez has turned in for his career. There’s probably an argument to be made that the similarities in their strikeout rate are due more to Morel working deeper counts than Morel having a similar approach to Báez, especially when you consider that he’s striking out almost exactly half the time with a two-strike count. Ultimately, Morel is not only making more consistent contact, but also demonstrating a higher quality of it. He jumped his Hard Hit% up from 36.8 percent in 2022 to 41.9 percent in 2023. There’s growth there, but 2024 is showing early signs of being his true establishment as an upper-tier hitter. Through six games, Morel has struck out only twice. His chase rate is a mere 3.2 percent, with a 10 percent jump in his Z-Swing% (80.4). His contact rate is at 89.5 percent. Those are genuinely hilarious numbers. Obviously, this is too small a sample to verify anything, and pitchers are finding the zone almost 60 percent of the time against him – which will surely change – but it does speak to Morel’s intention in refining his plate approach. From Craig Counsell, via the Cubs’ official site: “Really, since the start of Spring Training, it’s just been hard-hit balls and a real controlled aggression, is the best way I can describe it. There hasn’t been chase … That’s just going to make him really dangerous.” Even with the inherent unsustainability of his early plate discipline, a demonstration of growth would be the final nail in the coffin of the comparison. Morel already had more of an awareness of the zone and control in taking pitches, but being able to drop the Chase% on any meaningful level would yield massive dividends in his counting stats and strikeout/walk rates. It’s interesting that our collective perception of their respective profiles is as similar as it is. “Big power, bigger whiffs” represents a massive oversimplification. Morel has always made better swing decisions. If the first week is any indication, that gap is going to grow into something to make us all feel silly for thinking it in the first place. View full article

Was that good for you? That was really good for me. Like, really good. During the Chicago Cubs’ home opener against Colorado on Monday, I came to a realization: There's a shortage of players who get me “razzed” about watching baseball on this team’s roster. The Cubs have a handful of solid baseball players, but it’s not as if they have a bunch of dudes for whom I absolutely have to tune in. While I can appreciate the smoothness of the infield defense or idealized efficiency from the starting staff, there isn’t that unquantifiable thing-you-have-to-see-live element that the stars on other rosters may feature. With the arrival of Shōta Imanaga at Wrigley Field, I think that might've changed. The Cubs’ most notable signing of the offseason (this side of Cody Bellinger’s return), Imanaga absolutely shoved against a miserable Rockies squad. He finished with six innings, a pair of hits allowed, and nine strikeouts against zero walks. But it wasn’t so much the line itself; it was the intensity and upside Imanaga flashed that have me as enthused about any individual Cub as I’ve been in the last few seasons. Over the course of his six frames, Imanaga threw 92 pitches, with four pitch types scattered across the total. Of those 92, 56 were fastballs (averaging 92.5 MPH), 24 were splitters, and 10 were sweepers. He mixed in a pair of curveballs, according to the distribution. Against righties, he went fastball 34 times, splitter 22 times, and a singular curve. Lefties saw 22 fastballs, 10 sweepers, a pair of splitters, and a curve. Here’s the mix itself, for the visual learners: Imanaga has unique movement working in his favor. His Vertical Approach Angle (VAA) – the angle at which pitches approach the plate – checked in at -4.15 degrees, which would put him well above average. His Induced Vertical Break (IVB) – the upward break from release to home plate, relative to what gravity would have dictated – was 18.6 inches. While these are very much concepts yours truly – and the baseball community at large – is working to get a better grasp on, it’s undeniable that Imanaga excelled in both facets in the home opener. Part of having a guy like him in the mix is not only that “tune in” factor, but the curiosity in expanding an understanding of the game, because he’s bringing about a certain fascination with the art of pitching. That art was a martial one Monday, as Imanaga deployed a deadly combination of mix and movement against Colorado. An aside: Interestingly, this helps to showcase a bit of Boston pitching coach Andrew Bailey’s recent remarks on the fastball. Essentially, it boils down to the idea that the fastball is your jab in a boxing match, and needs to be used strategically in setting up the more impactful weapons in a pitcher’s arsenal. It’s not necessarily a new concept, but the metaphor is apt in connecting to what we’ve seen from Imanaga thus far. He doesn’t have top-tier velocity, but he has plus movement. He deployed that moving four-seamer effectively, to the point where the splitter and occasional sweeper were much more devastating than their own raw characteristics would suggest. Another visual: We love pitchability--the capacity to not only be able to locate your pitches where you want them, but demonstrate an effective mix in conjunction with varied locations to keep hitters as off-balance as possible. The above is exactly what you’re looking for from someone nicknamed “The Throwing Philosopher.” Generating whiffs and weak fly balls up in the zone with the hard stuff. Inducing whiffs at the bottom with the splitter. The mix was excellent, and showcased exactly what it is that could make him such an effective starter in this year’s group. Of course, we knew about his stuff coming into the year. Reviews and expectations were mixed on his velocity and place in a rotation. But it was the stuff – combined with pitchability – that was so enthralling. And that’s exactly what we got. There’s a caveat here. On the contact he did surrender on Monday, three of every four batted balls against Imanaga were flies. All of that contact came against fastballs. It’s not surprising, given the intentional deployment of that pitch type in that location. On a cold April day at Wrigley, that’s something you can get away with, but in warmer weather or smaller parks, it's an apparent area of vulnerability. As the season wears on, it’ll be one of his shortcomings to evaluate against his evolution as a Major League pitcher. Ultimately, though, that's summertime’s problem. It can’t hurt me. For right now, I’m basking in one of the more exciting Cubs starters to come around since… Jake Arrieta’s torrid 2015-16? Again, not that the Cubs’ other starters aren’t of a certain quality, or that I’m declaring him any level of “elite.” But Imanaga’s approach and mix makes me want to invest more intellectually, and that’s possibly the highest compliment I can offer a player. Now, at the same time, let’s see what he does against (presumably) a formidable opponent in the Dodgers this weekend. View full article

The big bat the Cubs brought in this winter happens to be a 26-year-old who's not yet established in the big leagues. Can he still deliver like a bigger-name, bigger-money slugger? Image courtesy of © Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports The contrasting reactions to the 2023-24 Chicago Cubs offseason are not mutually exclusive. While it’s true that the organization could have sought more impactful means by which to improve their club, it would also be accurate to note that the team is at least marginally better via those that were made. There’s some nuance to be explored, which will be compounded with subsequent moves made pre-trade deadline and beyond. Whichever way one leans, though, it's all about to go from exhibition to exhilaration--from nattering to mattering. We now have a firm idea as to the roster construction for the outset of 2024. Whatever decisions remain in play regarding lineup construction or defensive configuration, we can be sure that Michael Busch will be a centerpiece in all of it. Critics of the Cubs’ offseason will almost certainly point to the lack of offensive additions at clear areas of need. Above all, that included first and third base, both of which featured wavering performance and a lack of future clarity. Cherry-picking a few numbers, the team ranked 17th in ISO (.174) and 27th in on-base percentage (.299) at first base last year, while hanging 13th in ISO (.166) and 11th in OBP (.323) in the opposite corner, with the latter spot only walking 8.1 percent of the time (ranked 18th). They were also a middle-tier operation on both sides of the infield from a defensive standpoint. What’s notable about those spots, above all, is that they’re the two without any long-term certainty. Basically every other position is locked in for at least the next two years, or has a prospect at the upper levels ready to step in. As such, it was extremely logical to see names like Matt Chapman or Pete Alonso floated in connection with the team. The absence of a more impactful addition – given the lack of true standouts on the offensive side – left us ultimately disappointed that a marquee addition didn’t occur at either of what represented the team’s only legitimate openings for ’24. Enter Michael Busch. It’s not as if the Cubs didn’t do anything to address the corners. I’m excited to watch Christopher Morel at third base. And as far as Busch is concerned, when the team acquired him from the Los Angeles Dodgers, my immediate reaction was that he’d slot in at that spot. That was quickly dispelled, and we can fully anticipate him manning first base, instead. While the team has indicated they could “protect” him against lefties early on – something that was further solidified with the addition of Garrett Cooper – Busch will get ample opportunities to nab a long-term role for himself out of that position. With that, however, a pair of questions are left lingering: How much can the Cubs rely on a breakout from Michael Busch? and How much do they need a breakout from Michael Busch? As far as the former is concerned, it’s impossible to know when, or if, a prospect will realize their potential. In Busch’s case, though, things look good. He spent time in Double-A in both 2021 and 2022. He was at Triple-A in 2022 and 2023. Over each of those sets of years, he showed significant growth in adjusting to the level. With the Dodgers’ Tulsa affiliate, Busch’s 2021 slash was .267/.386/.484 across 495 plate appearances. He struck out 26.1 percent of the time and walked at a 14.1-percent clip. His ISO sat at .218. With the exception of the strikeout rate, there’s nothing there to be upset about. But he built on that in 2022, with an obscene .306/.445/.667 line in 137 PAs before being called up to the next level. The punchout rate remained about the same, but he bumped the walks up to 17.1 percent and the ISO to a hilarious .361. Smaller sample size, of course, but he demonstrated marked improvement almost across the board before heading up to Oklahoma City (‘up’ in level; I am uneducated as to the actual geography of the state of Oklahoma). [Ed. note: He went down and left; Oklahoma City is about 105 miles southwest of Tulsa. I was curious. You were curious. Yes, you were. You were curious. Admit it.] The trends in Triple-A were much the same, if not slightly more encouraging. In over 500 PAs, Busch secured a .266/.343/.480 line, a .214 ISO, 26.0 K%, and 9.9 BB%. He followed that up with .323/.431/.618, a .295 ISO, 18.8 K%, and 13.9 BB% in 469 trips to the plate in 2023. So while the sample size remained large, he showed an ability to not only generate more walks, just as he had in Double-A, but limit the punchouts, too. The bat, in multiple respects, has always been Busch’s primary tool, but he demonstrated a clear penchant for adjustments at each of the two levels. One imagines that trend leaves him set up for the coveted breakout, especially with the runway he’ll get with the Cubs (one which he was not afforded in LA). Which brings us to the latter query. A breakout from Michael Busch isn’t at all an unrealistic scenario, but how much do they need that breakout to occur to find success within the larger context of the National League? The Cubs didn’t have an issue manufacturing runs last year. Their 819 runs were third-most in the NL. They walked a fair bit (ranked fifth), didn’t strike out a ton (ninth-best K%), and were aggressive on the bases (fourth in steals). Where they came up short against their Senior Circuit counterparts was in the power game. The Cubs’ home run total (196) ranked eighth in the NL, their ISO was seventh (.167), and they were ahead of only Washington in Hard Hit% (30.7). While there may be some room for growth out of the other regulars (perhaps an uptick in power from someone like Cody Bellinger), the ISO side of things is fairly well-established for this group. There just isn’t a lot of true impact in the bats. With that offensive output, however, the Cubs fell a game out of a playoff spot. So it’s not as if they scratched every last bit out of the barrel and still fell short. A couple of bounces throughout the year, and they’re playing into October. At the same time, seven of the top 10 squads in ISO were playoff teams. Busch’s ability to get the ball into the gaps and over the outfield walls is going to be essential for this team. Power plays, and Busch has it. Given the lack of other genuinely impactful transactions on that side of the ball, his ability to stick and provide impact reads as imperative as this point in the calendar. The good news is that Busch does have the runway. He also has protection. The Cubs could field Cooper or Patrick Wisdom against certain lefties, to ensure Busch’s development at the top level stays on track. But their presence likely won’t inhibit his overall opportunity in the way that it would have under certain previous managers. Ultimately, as the season begins, the offensive output of Busch is something on which I’ll maintain a keen eye, both for his breakout potential and the Cubs’ 2024 fortunes at large. View full article

As we preview the coming season from a Cubs-colored lens, let's dig into the NL West. It's the home of the sport's top juggernaut, but there are also some legitimate secondary contenders who will be thorns in the Cubs' side this summer. Image courtesy of © Kim Hong-Ji/Reuters via USA TODAY Sports The 2024 iteration of the National League West figures to be less intriguing than past years'. The 2022 and 2023 seasons saw the San Diego Padres take massive swings to dethrone the Los Angeles Dodgers. Those ultimately failed, and the Padres took the all-too-familiar route of “scaling back" their payroll. The 2023 season did feature the arrival of the young Arizona Diamondbacks, but it remains to be seen just how competitive they can be in the larger context of their division. Ultimately, 2024 figures to be exactly what we’d expect. The Dodgers signed and acquired just about every superstar available. They’re the reigning champions, and they will be for the foreseeable future. The Diamondbacks are a playoff threat, sure. But they remain an around-the-margins type of squad. They can beat you in a short series, but they’re not scaring anyone in the 162-game regular season slate. Beyond those two, you’ve got a pair of middling teams in San Diego and San Francisco, as well as whatever is happening in Colorado. Big-picture, there are a wealth of fun players within the division. Some of them even play for teams that aren’t the Dodgers. But when it comes down to it, you’re probably not getting genuine title contention outside of Los Angeles. Despite the pessimistic outlook, here are some things to bear in mind for the NL West in 2024. Los Angeles Dodgers Projected Record: 93-69 (FanGraphs); 101-61 (Baseball Prospectus) Offseason Moves: Notable Additions: Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Teoscar Hernández, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, James Paxton Notable Subtractions: J.D. Martinez, Julio Urías, Lance Lynn Scouting Report Do we need to? At this point, you know the roster and you know the narratives, the latter of which ranged from “They’re the only team trying to win a title this side of Atlanta,” to “The Dodgers are bad for baseball!” Their offense features Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts. Their pitching staff will roll out Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Walker Buehler. They’re going to score a ton of runs. They’re not going to allow very many. Anything less than 100 wins probably makes it a disappointing regular season. Big Question: How will Mookie Betts, Starting Shortstop play out? It’s a hilarious offensive setup. The pitching upside is in the stratosphere. It’s probably only on the defense where we see legitimate questions. Mookie Betts is now the starting shortstop. His handling of the spot merits some concern. Max Muncy was also one of the worst fielding third basemen in baseball. Last year, the Dodgers were able to compensate for some of Muncy’s shortcomings, because Miguel Rojas was adept at moving to his right. Betts hasn't yet demonstrated the ability to make that difficult play consistently, so you have to wonder what that side of their infield will look like from a performance standpoint. Arizona Diamondbacks Projected Record: 83-79 (FanGraphs); 85-77 (Baseball Prospectus) Offseason Moves: Notable Additions: Joc Pederson, Eugenio Suárez, Randal Grichuk, Eduardo Rodríguez Notable Subtractions: Evan Longoria, Tommy Pham Scouting Report The Snakes were a middle-tier offensive operation last year. They didn’t strike out, but nor did they get on base at an elite clip or showcase much power. Their pitching was equally competent, but shy of dominant. They were active this winter, in a scattershot kind of way, in pursuit of a more legitimate playoff posture for 2024. Rodríguez gives them stability in the rotation, while each of Suárez and Pederson gives them some thump at the plate. They also re-signed Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. Speed and defense remain their trademarks. Their 166 steals trailed only Cincinnati for the highest mark in the league last year. Their 31 Outs Above Average ranked second in the bigs, and their 46 Defensive Runs Saved ranked fourth. Their offseason shuffling makes them better, but they’re still built to succeed through the chaos on the bases and the quality of their gloves, and bringing in Suárez to play third could actually weaken their team defense. Big Question: To what extent can the gloves cover for the bats? A rather shocking World Series run made the Diamondbacks the buzzy contenders for LA's title, and they have a right to feel that way even after the late-winter additions the Padres and Giants each made. They probably still won’t be able to keep up with the Hollywood stars over 162, but it'll be interesting to watch the difference in the defense. Arizona was an elite defensive squad last year. The Dodgers’ glovework could be what ultimately leads to their demise (if anything does). How much that bridges the gap between the two, though, remains a question. San Francisco Giants Projected Record: 81-81 (FanGraphs); 83-79 (Baseball Prospectus) Offseason Moves: Notable Additions: Matt Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, Jorge Soler, Jordan Hicks, Blake Snell Notable Subtractions: Joc Pederson, Brandon Crawford, Mitch Haniger, Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani Scouting Report The Giants’ pitching ranked 11th in the league in ERA (3.91) and fourth in FIP (3.98). They featured the league’s highest ground-ball rate by a fairly wide margin (48.7%) and a defensive infrastructure competent enough to support it. Jordan Hicks should add more punch to the former (though it remains to be seen how he’ll succeed in a starting capacity; we've seen him struggle in previous attempts to claim that role), and Matt Chapman will further solidify their defense. Of course, they were also 24th in runs scored (674), 23rd in ISO (.149), and struck out at the league’s sixth-highest rate (24.5 percent). Any hope for contention from this club is probably going to rely heavily on that side of the ball. Chapman and Soler should help in terms of power production, at least (especially as right-handed hitters). Lee gives them a dynamic table-setter, as well. Big Question: Will the offensive additions help, given their home ballpark? San Francisco’s 30-homer drought isn’t a secret at this point. The last Giant to hit that many in one season was Barry Bonds, in 2004. The last righty to do it was Jeff Kent, in 2002. Soler’s done it twice in his career. Chapman’s done it once, but has two seasons of 27. Oracle Park has one of the lowest three-year park factors for home runs in the league, depressing them by 16 percent, but Soler and Chapman have the kind of prodigious power to test its confinement. San Diego Padres Projected Record: 81-81 (FanGraphs); 80-82 (Baseball Prospectus) Offseason Moves: Notable Additions: Yuki Matsui, Woo-Suk Go, Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez, Enyel De Los Santos, Dylan Cease Notable Subtractions: Juan Soto, Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Josh Hader Scouting Report The 2023 season for the Padres made very little sense. They featured Cy Young winner Blake Snell in their rotation. Their staff, as a whole, was tied for the best ERA in the National League (3.73). They scored 752 runs, which left them sixth in the NL and fed into a +104 run differential. Yet, they finished 82-80, needing a late run to even scratch above .500. The two phases of the game were just never on the same page. When the pitching held up, the offense couldn’t score. When the offense came through, the pitching faltered. They still boast Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Xander Bogaerts in the lineup. Their No. 2 prospect, Jackson Merrill, had an outstanding spring and made the roster as the starting center fielder. They just added Dylan Cease to a rotation that has plenty of upside following the trade of Juan Soto. But it remains to be seen whether they can find the balance that eluded them all year in 2023. Big Question: Can the starting staff support the bullpen? San Diego lost Snell, Michael Wacha, and Seth Lugo to free agency over the winter. Snell led the starting group in innings last year, with Lugo second and Wacha fourth. That’s a lot of innings for which to compensate. Cease averaged a shade over five innings per start last year. Michael King is converting to a sustained starting role for the first time, and none of Vásquez, Brito, or Matt Waldon were full-time starters last year. It’s an interesting group with massive upside, and the Friars do have a very deep bullpen, too. Many of their relief pieces are funky or untested, though, which will make it important that the starters chew up some innings and keep pressure off them. Colorado Rockies Projected Record: 59-103 (FanGraphs); 57-105 (Baseball Prospectus) Offseason Moves: Notable Additions: Dakota Hudson, Cal Quantrill Notable Subtractions: Brent Suter Scouting Report The Rockies had the worst pitching staff in baseball by ERA (5.68) last year. They were 18th in runs scored. They’re projected to be the worst team in the NL, according to multiple outlets. There just isn’t a lot of hope here. Nolan Jones is good, probably. Brenton Doyle is a fun defender in center. Kris Bryant could maybe be healthy as a full-time first baseman. But what are we doing here? Big Question: Will they ever be even a little bit interesting? I am simply begging the Rockies to give me a reason to remember that they exist. In addition to the presumptive division champions, there are three viable Wild Card hopefuls here. While the teams of the West need not be the Cubs' primary concern this season, they're relevant to them, because the Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks have left the path to a non-NL Central championship playoff berth feeling pretty narrow. View full article

Much will be asked of the 2024 Chicago Cubs bullpen, especially the firemen at the end of the game. This group has never before met the challenge of locking down leads for a contender all the way through to October. Can they do it? Image courtesy of © Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports Like the starting rotation, the relief corps for the Chicago Cubs saw only light turnover this winter. Of the 10 arms who logged the most innings out of the bullpen in 2023, only Michael Fulmer and Michael Rucker did not return. Otherwise, it’s a host of re-tooled veterans and high-upside arms comprising the group. This is even more true of the back end. While names like Yency Almonte or Edwin Escobar could be effective as situational arms, those that made up the late innings last year are poised to return in similar capacities for 2024. Only Héctor Neris brings new blood to the eighth and ninth frames of close games. There was some buzz about an established closer, but the organization’s reluctance to pay heavily for relief arms – especially on multi-year deals – quickly ruled them out. Nonetheless, we’re still looking at a fairly stable foursome to round things out. The Locks: Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, Mark Leiter Jr., Héctor Neris 2023 Stats Alzolay: 58 G, 64.0 IP, 9.42 K/9, 1.83 BB/9, 2.67 ERA, 3.02 FIP Merryweather: 69 G, 72.0 IP, 12.25 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 3.38 ERA, 3.52 FIP Leiter Jr: 69 G, 64.1 IP, 10.77 K/9, 3.36 BB/9, 3.50 ERA, 3.77 FIP Neris (with HOU): 71 G, 68.1 IP, 10.14 K/9, 4.08 BB/9, 1.71 ERA, 3.83 FIP 2024 Projections (ZiPS) Alzolay: 42 G, 74 IP, 9.40 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, 3.73 ERA, 3.91 FIP Merryweather: 56 G, 56 IP, 11.90 K/9, 3.81 BB/9, 3.97 ERA, 3.82 FIP Leiter Jr: 45 G, 73 IP, 9.25 K/9, 3.58 BB/9, 4.32 ERA, 4.46 FIP Neris: 62 G, 57 IP, 10.29 K/9, 3.43 BB/9, 3.90 ERA, 4.12 FIP Scouting Report While previous starting experience isn’t a rarity among the Cubs’ relief arms, the full-time conversion of Adbert Alzolay to the pen was one of the more enjoyable storylines in 2023. Having struggled as a starter – predominantly with health issues – the Cubs rode him out in relief full-time last year. His four-seam/sinker/slider mix played exceptionally well in that role, as his 22 saves paced the team’s relievers by a wide margin. He struggled a bit in the second half, with contact trends indicating far more line drives than in the season’s first half, in particular. But, by all accounts, he’s the guy in the ninth again for 2024. Merryweather was the poster boy for the type of success the Cubs want to have with their relievers. He had previously struggled to hang on to opportunities in Toronto, ending up as a waiver claim by the team in January of last year. After getting in the lab, he picked up just a little bit of velocity and went super slider-heavy. The slide piece accounted for almost half of his pitches thrown, up from about 20 percent in 2022. That pitch generated whiffs at a 45-percent clip, with virtually everything in the swing-and-miss game representing a career-best for Merryweather. Leiter represents a similar trend to each, in that he’s spun from the same reclamation web as Merryweather while also coming off a shaky second half in the way that Alzolay was perceived to be. In Leiter’s case, his strikeout rate dipped, his walk rate rose, and he gave up a touch harder contact that was more likely to be in the air than the first half. Regardless, he and his splitters and his reverse splits will be heavily featured once again. Neris will be tasked with bringing some stability to the group. He has experience pitching in high-leverage situations, especially coming off a two-year run with Houston. He does tend to let command get away from him on occasion, but brings more punchout potential than many of the other options, both in this portion of the bullpen and elsewhere. The challenge for the late-inning guys is going to be remaining fresh for a full year. The onus is probably more on Craig Counsell in that respect, but given that Alzolay and (especially) Leiter were at varying levels of “cooked” by September, the organization will want to set up this group for more longevity, in the absence of more impactful bullpen additions. Other Options We’ll circle back to the rest of the relief arms in the near future, but it’ll be interesting to see if any of the fringe arms or swing guys work their way into higher-leverage situations as the season progresses. José Cuas looked decent in a small sample. Daniel Palencia and Luke Little are high-upside power arms. Maybe Carl Edwards Jr. works his way back into the fold on a level we didn’t expect. There are bodies there, but their reliability in those late innings remains to be seen. The Big Question: Is there enough late-inning volume? There are questions as to the reliability of Alzolay in a ninth-inning role. I don’t necessarily have those questions. He didn’t take over the gig until the summer; minor performance setbacks were inevitable. ZiPS likes him as the closer again, to the tune of 28 saves. His arsenal plays well. He’s the guy. Beyond him, though, you have to wonder how many arms can step onto the bump in those “clutch” situations. Not that teams load up their bullpen with arms they deem “late-inning guys” necessarily. But even within those four, you do have to wonder about the sustainability. Two reclamation projects and a 34-year-old arm who outpitched his peripherals to an extent don’t engender ironclad confidence at a position with a high rate of volatility to begin with. Again, it’s not necessarily something teams can prepare for, but it’s at least something to be aware of. Of course, that’s also why they’re paying Craig Counsell the big bucks. View full article

We've all spent much of the spring trying to get ahold of out-of-context, odd-angle videos of Christopher Morel playing third base. Maybe we'd get a better perspective by zooming out--way out. Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports At this point in the timeline, it appears that Christopher Morel will be the Chicago Cubs Opening Day starter at third base. The previously nomadic defender should have a permanent spot, at least from the jump. It’s a logical way for things to play out, given a couple of factors. The most obvious is that Morel becoming a mainstay there would present the additional benefit of circulating other players in the designated hitter slot, which could ultimately wind up a boon for the offense. The more crucial one, though, is Morel’s skill set in comparison with other options. We’ve discussed the team’s options at the position extensively. Patrick Wisdom offers a decent offensive profile for the spot, but is very much a below-average defender. Nick Madrigal gives you defensive efficiency but is nowhere close to the bat you’d want at the hot corner. The player health variable clarifies this further. Wisdom was limited early in the spring with a quad issue. Madrigal remains out with the latest in what seem to be perpetual hamstring issues. By the time we reach the end of March, Morel will likely be the only candidate to get a full spring's worth of preparation. Even beyond that, though, it stands to reason that Morel merely has to be average in order to maintain his grip on the spot. His offensive upside is such that he can compensate for a lot, especially given some of his comps on that side of the ball in a defensive context. So he’s the guy, basically, until he’s not--even if a couple of early spring errors give us the slightest bit of apprehension. With that, though, we need to consider an important shift in the line of questioning. Not necessarily “Can he hang at third base?” but rather “Can he keep up enough to hang at third base?” Can he grow into the position efficiently enough, even if the early returns aren’t terrific? The distinction lies in the broader context of the position itself. It’s insufficiently specific to say that Morel can start and remain at third base with simply passable defense. What classifies as passable defense at third base is continually evolving. This adds another layer to Morel’s specific situation. Defense – as a whole – has improved across Major League Baseball over the parade of decades. There are a few theories as to why, none of which I have the space to explore right now (but stay tuned). Twenty years ago, teams were committing 0.66 errors per game. Ten years ago, that figure was at 0.60. Last season, errors were committed at a 0.52-per-game clip. Average fielding percentage has gone .983, .984, and .986 over those same leaps in time. Now, obviously, it’s oversimplified in the face of positional context, in addition to the fact that neither represents an effective measure of a player’s defensive skill. Nonetheless, they do provide a snapshot to showcase the simple idea that defense has improved. Among qualifiers at third base specifically, the average Outs Above Average (OAA) figure was 1.1 in 2016 (the earliest point at which we have that data) but rose to 1.7 in 2023. Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in 2016 was 1.6. In 2023, that figure was 2.8. Fielding Run Value (FRV) – a more comprehensive metric than either of the other two – rose from 1.6 in 2016 to 2.8 in 2023. It’s an imperfect science. The “average” alone takes into account the entire range of defenders, and the individual years do feature some fluctuation. The leaders at the position from 2023 also aren’t on the other side of a massive gap from the leaders in 2016 (OAA leaders went for 18, 12, and 11, respectively in 2016 and were at 17, 13, and 11 in 2023). But the big picture does speak to the idea that defense has steadily gotten better. With expansion more than a quarter-century in our rearview, teams don't have to choose between players who can hit and those who can field as often. It's much easier to find players who can do both, which makes every weakness more glaring than it would have been 20, 30, or 40 years ago. With better positioning and better coaching, too, the conversion rate on balls a fielder reaches just keep rising. In the 1960s, or even in the early 1990s, it might have been possible to get by with a mistake-prone hot corner defender who uses good range to make up for mishaps. In 2024, that's not a viable strategy. The other team's not going to make the mistake that evens the scales. You have to find ways to minimize them in an absolute sense, because the relative cost of each has sharply risen. This question of Morel’s ability to keep up with defensive growth around the league feeds directly into another query. How are we measuring his growth? Should we be looking at fielding percentage and errors while the sample remains small? It would, at least, be indicative of Morel’s individual ability to keep traffic off the basepath, even if we’re not measuring his true skill at the position. We can also look to DRS in examining Morel’s ability to prevent runs as a defender. Ultimately, that’s what it’s about for him at this stage. It’s not so much about converting outs as it is preventing runs. It's a philosophical and complex idea, but also makes Morel’s adjustment far more fascinating as a result. Defensive metrics, on their own, measure different things. That nuance could be essential in evaluating Morel’s first legitimate entry into the defensive world. And maybe that’s where we look for his growth as the season progresses. Is he making the plays he needs to make and preventing runs? Yes? Then the Cubs are fine to keep rolling with him there. The defensive stature of the position itself hasn’t grown by leaps and bounds in a year-to-year context. The growth is essential, but it doesn’t have to be exponential. As the sample grows, the measurement can change. The purpose of this isn’t to oppose or undermine my previous notion that Morel doesn’t have to be great on defense in order to be effective. That still rings true. While the Cubs have built themselves in such a way that success on the margins is essential, they are solidified elsewhere to the point where they can compensate for the occasional third-base flub. For Morel, it’s about the growth. Defense has improved quite steadily over the last few decades. But it hasn’t experienced any sizable jump between years that proved to be permanent. So for now, Morel’s aim should be preventing runs. Maybe later on, we can worry about converting outs. View full article

Barring any injury or shocking meltdown, the Top Four options for the Chicago Cubs starting rotation appear set. But in a league where it's rare to use fewer than eight starting pitchers in a season, who fills the gaps? Image courtesy of © Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports As previously noted, we’ll see Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon, and Shōta Imanaga ride it out at the top. It’s not a group with a ton of flash or intrigue, but given the defense behind them, they should be more than adequate. If you’re looking for a bit extra of the latter, look no further than the depth. The Cubs still have a fifth starter to sort. Their name may have been floated in association with Jordan Montgomery, but it’s hard to imagine at this stage. Instead, they’ll look to a veteran roster holdover (Drew Smyly), an upper-tier prospect coming off a bit more than a cup of coffee (Jordan Wicks), a pair of swingmen from 2023 (Javier Assad & Hayden Wesneski), a post-hype-ish prospect (Ben Brown), and their top pitching prospect (Cade Horton). All will likely see a start on the bump at Wrigley in 2024. But sustainability remains a question for all. The Depth: Drew Smyly, Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Cade Horton 2023 Stats Smyly: 23 GS, 142.1 IP, 8.92 K/9, 3.54 BB/9, 1.43 WHIP, 5.00 ERA, 4.96 FIP Wicks: 7 GS, 34.2 IP, 6.23 K/9, 2.86 BB/9, 1.27 WHIP, 4.41 ERA, 4.70 FIP Assad: 10 GS, 109.1 IP, 7.74 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 1.23 WHIP, 3.05 ERA, 4.29 FIP Wesneski: 11 GS, 89.1 IP, 8.36 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, 1.28 WHIP, 4.63 ERA, 5.48 FIP Brown (AAA): 15 GS, 72.2 IP, 12.39 K/9, 6.32 BB/9, 1.53 WHIP, 5.33 ERA, 4.66 FIP Horton (A+): 11 GS, 47.0 IP, 12.45 K/9, 2.30 BB/9, 1.00 WHIP, 3.83 ERA, 3.23 FIP 2024 Projections (ZiPS) Smyly: 21 GS, 121 IP, 8.63 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, 1.35 WHIP, 4.54 ERA, 4.63 FIP Wicks: 25 GS, 110 IP, 7.67 K/9, 3.18 BB/9, 1.33 WHIP, 4.41 ERA, 4.37 FIP Assad: 17 GS, 114 IP, 7.17 K/9, 3.54 BB/9, 1.39 WHIP, 4.33 ERA, 4.73 FIP Wesneski: 17 GS, 101 IP, 8.32 K/9, 3.27 BB/9, 1.32 WHIP, 4.51 ERA, 4.41 FIP Brown: 20 GS, 95 IP, 9.03 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, 1.35 WHIP, 4.23 ERA, 4.29 FIP Horton: 22 GS, 86 IP, 7.43 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, 1.28 WHIP, 4.50 ERA, 4.43 FIP Scouting Report The degree to which we’ll see Smyly out of the starting gate in ’24 depends heavily on who you talk to or projection model to which you subscribe. Smyly returns to the Cubs after exercising his player option following the struggles of 2023. June was a particularly laborious month, as Smyly posted his worst K-BB numbers of the year (3.9 K-BB%) and was touched for a HardHit% up near 40. He was bounced from the rotation and fared decently as a reliever, but his status as a starter is heavily in doubt. Nonetheless, Smyly does offer some intrigue for the upcoming year, given his winter work at Driveline. Therein, he worked to add a splitter & slider to the mix while dropping the slider. The results haven’t been there this spring – on paper – but it stands to reason that he could be effective in a swing role if the changes take. It’s hard to imagine him as a starter with any kind of longevity at this stage. Wicks flashed about as much as we could have hoped for in 2023, especially given his skill set. He is the type of cerebral arm that the team covets – given the defensive infrastructure on the roster – he’s not going to overpower anyone. But he can locate and mix enough to make him a mid-rotation guy. It’s just a matter of increasing the workload. If I were a betting man – and I’m not – he’d be the guy to get the first crack at the fifth spot. Assad and Wesneski each bring plenty of value to the current roster, even as they live in something of a pitcher’s purgatory. Neither has shown enough over a longer-term stretch to latch onto a rotation spot, but they’re each very effective in shorter stints. Assad had a nice run as a spot starter but could generate whiffs and induce soft contact at a much higher rate as a reliever. Wesneski was not too dissimilar. Walks plagued him in relief, but the strikeout rate was higher, and the hard contact rate was drastically lower. It’s straightforward to imagine a world where either or both are in a long relief/spot starting role once again; it’s equally easy to see the organization wanting to keep either one stretched out in Iowa. As for the prospects, we’re looking at the murkiest picture of the depth group but with the highest upside. Given health and command issues, Ben Brown lost some of the luster as an option last year. But his combination of upper-90s and nonsense-breaking stuff is too tantalizing to ignore forever. He dabbled in relief last year; one wonders if the Cubs move that option to the forefront to get him to Wrigley more expediently. Horton represents the highest upside of the system’s arms. He already has the velocity and the slider. He’s working on the changeup and maybe the curve. He’s an exciting prospect, but one does wonder about the timeline. Do the Cubs give him a crack at relief sometime during the summer just to get him big-league innings? Does he get a full slate of minor league starts throughout ’24 for workload purposes? It’s tough to ignore the upside in the context of him not being too far, but I don’t imagine the Cubs will rush here unless they need to. Other Options None. That’s kind of it. Unless a starting prospect takes a massive leap or the Cubs make a shocking play for Jordan Montgomery, we’re likely looking at the group for the immediate future. The Big Question How will the organization manage the higher-upside guys in 2024? I posited a couple of different ways in which the Cubs can go about handling Brown and Horton. For the most part, we know what shape things will take for the other younger arms. Wicks likely starts, whether in Chicago or Iowa. Assad and/or Wesneski could be bound for Iowa, but a swing role does make heavy sense for either of them. But what of Brown & Horton? What does the timeline look like? What does the role in 2024 look like? One imagines we’ll have answers to those questions soon. Fearless prediction? Brown ends up moving to relief, at least for a time. Ideally, it keeps him healthy and builds his confidence in short stints. Horton, conversely, ends up starting on the farm for the duration of the year. The former seems more likely, but it’ll be very interesting to see how aggressive the Cubs want to be in progressing Horton, especially up through the ranks. View full article

There wasn’t a whole lot that was surprising about the 2023 Chicago Cubs’ starting staff. They were a low velocity group that relied upon limiting baserunners and efficiency rather than power or flash. The numbers reflect that. Image courtesy of © Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports As a starting group, they were 25th in strikeouts per nine (7.78) but posted the sixth-best BB/9 rate (2.55). Their collective groundball rate (44.7 percent) was the third-best mark in the league, while they surrendered hard contact at the lowest frequency (30.3 percent) among starting groups. Unexciting? Probably. Effective? It’d be hard to argue against it. The impending 2024 year doesn’t look much different, either. Despite a little buzz about potential trade or free-agent acquisitions heading into the winter, holdovers will comprise most of the starting five. Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, and Jameson Taillon all return. Shōta Imanaga represents the only new face among the locks for the rotation. While he brings more movement, we’re still looking at a front-end fairly low on velocity. And that – at least for the foreseeable future – will remain by design. While the organization may have some younger arms more adept at the velocity game within the next year or so, the remainder of the roster remains constructed so that they’ll continue to rely on in-play and out(s) as their formula in the rotation. The Locks: Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Tailon, Shōta Imanaga 2023 Stats: Steele: 30 GS, 173.1 IP, 16 W, 9.14 K/9, 1.87 BB/9, 1.17 WHIP, 3.06 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 4.9 fWAR Hendricks: 33 GS, 137.0 IP, 6 W, 6.11 K/9, 1.77 BB/9, 1.20 WHIP, 3.74 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 2.8 fWAR Taillon: 31 GS, 154.1 IP, 8 W, 8.16 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 1.28 WHIP, 4.84 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 1.6 fWAR Imanaga (Japan): 24 G, 159.0 IP, 7 W, 10.6 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 1.02 WHIP, 2.66 ERA (Baseball-Reference) 2024 Projections (ZiPS): Steele: 27 GS, 153 IP, 10 W, 8.16 K/9, 2.64 BB/9, 1.25 WHIP, 3.64 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 2.6 fWAR Hendricks: 25 GS, 132 IP, 6.99 K/9, 2.17 BB/9, 1.30 WHIP, 4.41 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 1.6 fWAR Taillon: 25 GS, 137 IP, 7 W, 7.83 K/9, 2.44 BB/9, 1.26 WHIP, 4.41 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 1.7 fWAR Imanaga: 25 GS, 137 IP, 8 W, 9.59 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 1.20 WHIP, 3.55 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.0 fWAR Scouting Report: 91.8, 87.7, 93.8. Those are the average fastball velocities of Steele, Hendricks, and Taillon. Numbers aren’t quite in on Imanaga yet, but he’s likely to sit about 92-93 if his trends from Japan carry over. Not to belabor the point, but we know exactly what kind of arm makes up the majority of the starting group. The good news is that the team kept their elite defensive middle infield intact, re-signed Cody Bellinger, and had stability behind the plate and the outfield corners. While living with little margin-for-error isn’t an ideal way to fly, at least the remainder of the squad is built in such a way as to support the pitching staff properly. Steele represents the ace of the staff. He’s coming off a year in which he finished fifth in the NL Cy Young voting, even with an uneven finish. Steele finished sixth in GB% (49.4) and featured the second-best hard contact rate (27.8) among qualifying starters. His K/9 ranked 22nd, while his BB/9 sat 7th. With an offseason to refine his fastball/slider combo (accounting for just over 96 percent of pitches thrown), we shouldn’t expect anything less from him in ’24. Hendricks rebounded from his 16 starts in 2022 to the same form we expected. While his strikeouts were down even from his modest career norms, his walk rate and batted ball numbers all fell in line with his yearly averages. He remains a cerebral force in the starting five. Interestingly, we can say essentially much the same of Taillon. While he labored through the first half of the season – mainly due to mechanic struggles – most of his peripherals fell in line with the career averages; only the ballooned ERA (4.84) stands as an outlier from what we’ve typically come to expect. More on him in a moment. Imanaga is a deviation from this group because he has high whiff potential. For the other three starters, it’s really about location (save Steele, who gets enough movement to generate strikeouts at a higher rate than Hendricks or Taillon, even if not quite elite). With Imanaga, you’re getting the combination of stuff and command we haven’t seen in the starting group in the last few years. Seeing how it translates to facing MLB hitters with a larger workload will be interesting. Other Options: We’ll discuss the depth options to occupy the fifth spot and beyond later this week. For now, here is a list of names: Jordan Wicks, Drew Smyly, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown, and Cade Horton. There is probably more intrigue on the back end than the front, given the upside within the volume. Those names represent some of the upper-tier arms within the system, so an opportunity to start this season could provide insight into future iterations of the rotation. Some of those names will feature heavily in relief, as well. Ultimately – and, again, we’ll dive further into this group in a second part – the team has done a solid job at building up starting depth thanks heavily to their still-recently revamped pitching infrastructure. The Big Question: Which Taillon are the Cubs getting in ’24? There are questions about Steele replicating his 2023 success. There are questions about Imanaga’s transition to Major League Baseball. There are questions about the ability of some of the depth arms to perform in a starting role. But perhaps the most immediate question facing the starting group is which version of Jameson Taillon they’ll see in 2024. The first-half flavor of Taillon posted a 6.15 ERA, walked almost three hitters per nine, and gave up heavy line drive contact. The Cubs lost a dozen of his first 14 starts. In the second half, though, he improved the ERA to 3.70, walked only 2.07 per nine, and dropped his WHIP from 1.40 to 1.17. While he gave up harder contact overall, he boosted his groundball rate by about five percent. It’s pretty evident at this point that Taillon was working through some mechanical stuff early on in the year, especially with an adjustment to a new organization & staff. Given that the second half of the year showcased Taillon as the type of pitcher he’s been throughout his career – a reliable starter, though not quite upper tier – one imagines that some of those unquantifiable elements (comfort, etc.) will allow him to return as a stabilizing presence in the upcoming year. View full article

The Chicago Cubs' re-addition of Cody Bellinger into the mix early this spring has me jazzed about the exhibition season and beyond. However, two things can be true. And the other thing true in my mind is that it remains difficult to label the 2023-24 offseason a success. That line of thinking comes back to one buzzword: clarity. Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports The team set out into the winter needing clarity in a few spots. Perhaps most notably, they needed it on the infield corners. They especially needed clarity – if not a true upgrade – at third base. And while we may have an idea of how the Cubs want things to pan out at the hot corner, that lack of clarity continues to loom as the Arizona weather begins to heat up. The Starter: Christopher Morel (?) 2023 Stats: .247/.313/.508, 31.0 K%, 8.4 BB%, .260 ISO, 119 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR 2024 Projections (ZiPS): .242/.309/.465, 30.8 K%, 8.2 BB%, .224 ISO, 108 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR Scouting Report: Given that this is the first legitimate opportunity seemingly given to Morel at this level, it seems appropriate to assume Morel will be get the nod at third when the season opens up at the end of March. The clear interest from the brass feeds directly into the assumption. Morel’s offensive profile would play best among the options. He hits just enough and has the desired power for a corner spot. His success there would allow the club more flexibility at the designated hitter spot and elsewhere in the field, while also establishing a permanent defensive home for one of their best young hitters. The question will obviously be the defense. Morel has the athleticism and the arm to handle the spot. It’s a matter of the glove and instincts translating in such a way as to entrench him at the corner. There’s a likely scenario whereby Morel gets the majority of the time, but also mixes in semi-regularly at DH. This would ease his transition and open up some of the flexibility recently discussed. Given the upper-tier defense the Cubs have elsewhere in the field, though, Morel doesn’t have to be outstanding to hold onto it. He merely has to be average. With the physical tools, the infrastructure around him, and the clear intention in the opportunity from team leadership, it’s easy to imagine Cubs Third Baseman Christopher Morel as the established thing by the end of ’24. Other Options: Even if Morel does ultimately take the job wholesale, we’re likely to see a mix of Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, and Michael Busch on his DH days. It stands to reason that Matt Shaw will find his way into the big league mix before season’s end as well. Madrigal represents the most stable of the options, purely from the perspective of skill set. He provided above-average defense there, a happy development that no one expected. Any sort of timeshare that involves a late-game defensive sub could result in Madrigal getting run in those situations. His bat – predicated entirely around regular contact – doesn’t carry the profile for regular starts, but he’s not a total zero. He can give you something at the plate. The concern there is health. Madrigal’s 92 games in 2023 were the most in his Major League career to date, but he also hit the Injured List on multiple occasions. Wisdom gives you something of the offensive profile you’re looking for there, as does Busch. In Wisdom’s case, the defense isn’t suitable to fill in beyond very short stretches, and he strikes out far too much at the plate. Garrett Cooper’s addition as a non-roster invite does lead one to ponder how long Wisdom may be around for the corner-thumper-off-the-bench role. As for Busch, he’s penciled in as the everyday first baseman at present. We may see him at third throughout the year, especially in instances against right-handed pitching where Cody Bellinger suits up at first. Matt Mervis forcing his way into the picture – however unlikely – could also flip Busch to the other side of the diamond. Shaw as a third base option would probably require a lot of things to go wrong early in the season. The Cubs are moving him around, as his bat should play from anywhere. If Morel struggles massively (on either side of the ball) or injuries force movement after he’s been given some extra time to cook in Tennessee/Iowa, we could see Shaw pop into the picture. For now, though, he’s likely on the outside of things, leaving Madrigal, Wisdom, and – to a lesser extent – Busch behind Morel. The Big Question: How “everyday” is everyday? There are more obvious questions. Can Morel hang as an everyday guy? Is he a long-term option if he does? Do the Cubs have the depth there if he fails or gets hurt? But they’re not necessarily unique ones. The largest question, in my mind, is whether Christopher Morel: Everyday Third Baseman comes as something of a misnomer. We know the Cubs have a great deal of roster flexibility beyond their entrenched starters in the middle of the infield and the outfield corners. They have positional versatility off the bench. Could we see a situation where Morel is more part of a rotation between third and DH, rather than the more familiar Regular 3B/Occasional DH? If Craig Counsell wants to work in Madrigal, Wisdom, Busch, or even Miles Mastrobuoni, then I suppose it’s possible more in a way that subjects Morel to DH more than anyone else in the field. One has to imagine that the cerebral nature of the Cubs’ new skipper would lead him to steer clear of this, though. In an ideal world, though, Morel is given the everyday crack until the sample becomes large enough to make a determination on his positional future one way or the other. View full article