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Minor-league outfield signings serving as a potential Cody Bellinger contingency notwithstanding, perhaps the biggest Chicago Cubs news to emerge from the extended weekend was that they would give Christopher Morel a prolonged run at third base this spring.
We (obviously) do not know what shape that will end up taking. The assumption has long been that Morel would get most of his starts out of the designated hitter spot. Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom have been loosely, uneasily projected to hold down the hot corner, with an occasional cameo from Michael Busch. Morel, in the meantime, could see a splash of playing time at myriad positions, as was the case in 2023. He appeared at second, shortstop, third, and all three outfield spots last year.
That would likely be on an as-needed basis, however, as none of those spots appear to be a long-term home for Morel. The middle infield is locked up for at least the next couple of years. The corner outfield spots are, too, with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki. Center field represents more of a question, but the Cubs already have Pete Crow-Armstrong, Mike Tauchman, and Alexander Canario vying for time, and the 2022 experiment in which Morel got extended run in center didn't leave anyone especially encouraged. Morel’s opportunities are constrained by others and by his own limitations, all over the diamond.
There was brief chatter about a look at first base, but the acquisition of Busch seems to have put that on hold. This means that third base represents the most logical fit for Morel, if the team is hellbent on getting him time in the field. Realistically, shouldn’t that have always been the case anyway?
Morel’s bat profiles well for the spot--much more so than the contact-oriented (and-nothing-else) Madrigal or the massive strikeout rate (even compared to Morel's own bloated one) of Wisdom. In matters of playing time, it’s largely about the defense, which is what the Cubs are aiming to examine this spring. But just how good does he have to be in order to stick there, anyway? Could the team get by with him being even average? Slightly below? Or does he have to be Actually Good in order to maintain a grip on an everyday positional role?
There are three fairly close comparisons to be made against Morel’s offensive production in 2023: Max Muncy, Jake Burger, and Jeimer Candelario. Here are their respective lines:
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Morel: .247/.313/.508/.821, 31.0 K%, 8.4 BB%, .260 ISO, 119 wRC+
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Muncy: .212/.333/.475/.808, 26.4 K%, 14.7 BB%, .263 ISO, 118 wRC+
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Burger: .250/.309/.518/.828, 27.6 K%, 5.9 BB%, .268 ISO, 120 wRC+
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Candelario: .251/.336/.471/.807, 22.0 K%, 9.2 BB%, .220 ISO, 117 wRC+
Candelario featured the highest WAR of the three (3.3, ranked eighth among qualifying third basemen). Muncy followed at 2.9 (12th) and Burger at 2.5 (15th). Nothing identical to Morel among them, but similarities abound. The most notable difference is that Muncy and Burger each project for over 70 percent of the playing time at third base, according to the depth charts over at FanGraphs. Candelario is in a bit more of a unique position, given the glut of infield prospects in Cincinnati, but totaled 994 innings at the position last year. Should one of the Reds’ prospects falter or hit the injured list, he’s likely the guy to step into a larger role there. So it stands to reason that this trio of Morel’s offensive comps are considered everyday guys at the hot corner.
And yet, the defensive output isn’t terrific. Muncy went for an Outs Above Average (OAA) of -7 and -3 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Burger was -8 and -7, respectively. Candelario ended up on the positive side of OAA, at 2, but fell on the negative of DRS, at -5. In roughly 180 innings at the position over the last two seasons, Morel has a cumulative OAA of -3 and DRS of -4. It stands to reason that he could improve that if given more reps. Obviously, he has to make at least minor strides, because that rate of defensive leakage would amount to 15 or 20 lost runs over a full season. The hope would be that he makes bigger progress. But if he doesn’t – and he ends up being a bit under the average threshold – would it really matter?
The reality is that there are very few third basemen who excel on both sides of the ball. José Ramírez, Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado stand almost alone in that regard. Outside of the truly elite at the position, you’re likely getting a glove-first guy with a mediocre bat, or an above-average bat with average-to-below average defense, like the Morel comps. With that in mind, who’s to say that Morel has to be good in order to nail down the position? It’s not as if the rest of the league (or the Cubs' own alternatives) are perfect. Madrigal looked solid in a very small sample, but his bat is better suited for…not a corner infield spot. And Wisdom’s glove was an atrocity in both 2022 & 2023. It certainly seems as if the Cubs should be giving Morel every chance to stick.
Now, of course, there’s a bit of additional context. It’s a team built to live on the edge. Steady pitching, strong defense, and very little margin for error. It’s possible that the team decides to ride it out with Madrigal (or, hey, wild idea: sign a massive-upside defender like Matt Chapman) in order to ensure that fielding phalanx remains intact to cover any offensive shortcomings. You could also argue that allowing Morel to ride it out there makes more sense under these circumstances, given that almost no infielders are better at making plays to their right than Dansby Swanson. With such good defense around him, one becomes a little more optimistic as to:
- The impact of below-average defense from Morel; and
- The potential for development over time.
In an ideal world, Morel shows he can handle the position from a defensive standpoint. This would help the club to avoid wasting his athleticism as an everyday DH. It would also allow the Cubs to operate with a little more freedom at the DH spot, which could lead to increased opportunity for many of the youngsters coming up through the ranks (Alexander Canario, for one) and for Busch to play often even if Bellinger re-signs. If it doesn’t work, though (or if the team decides to stay status quo with the Madrigal/Wisdom Braintrust), then we’ll likely see much of the same we did last year. Heavy time in the lineup, but sparingly seeing the actual field away from the basepaths. Let’s just not pretend that he has to be good to be the answer at third base for now.
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