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Little though he might match anyone's idea of a star-caliber player, the Cubs' 26th man keeps finding new ways to prove unexpectedly irreplaceable. On a team centered on defense, his glove and its ability to travel around the diamond make him worth keeping around. Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports My viewing relationship with Miles Mastrobuoni is not dissimilar from the previous assertions I made about Mike Tauchman. It boils down to some variation on: “A serious franchise, as the Chicago Cubs are purported to be, would not actively choose to roster a player such as this unless forced to do so.” Versatility can be valued, but not at the complete expense of the bat, given the team’s broader offensive shortcomings. Ignorant of the team’s positional circumstances, specifically on the infield? Probably. Unfair to the player? Perhaps. Entirely dismissive of my own personal history regarding the profile of the player I prefer? Absolutely. I’ve long maintained interest in two types of player profiles that I considered to be my “favorite,” above all others. The first is the elite defender who just can’t hit. “The bat will come around eventually,” I’ve declared on more than one occasion, regarding players like Nick Ahmed. The other is the super-utility type who may or may not be a zero at the plate. Ben Zobrist resided on one end of the spectrum. Chone Figgins was largely on the other. Josh Harrison sat somewhere in the middle, though he’s certainly at the Bad Figgins end now. While I’m not ready to work Mastrobuoni into such a prestigious line of previous sentimental favorites, I can acknowledge that there’s at least a conversation to be had. In the absence of Dansby Swanson and (more recently) Nico Hoerner, Miles Mastrobuoni has been a saving grace—of sorts. Acquired from Tampa Bay ahead of the 2023 season, Mastrobuoni has appeared at five different positions for the Cubs: second base, third base, shortstop, and each of the corner outfield spots. Most of the work has come at the hot corner, where he’s logged over 200 innings. Everywhere Mastrobuoni has played for the Cubs, he’s come in as at least average defensively. He’s been worth 3 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) across 75-ish innings at second, one in right, and zero at third (indicating average). The Fielding Run Values everywhere also come in at 0. So, while he’s not offering stellar defense, he’s at least providing stability in those instances where his participation becomes necessary. At shortstop, though, Mastrobuoni has notched 2 DRS in just 17 innings of work in 2024. That’s, uh, roughly 162 DRS across a full season. Sometimes, numbers are fun, or just funny. Samples this small with metrics as noisy as defensive ones all are carry no real weight. It would at least appear he can hang, though. This play on Wednesday in Atlanta (even with a Michael Busch assist) showed us that. This one on Tuesday showed us the same. It’s not so much the performance at shortstop that is showcasing Mastrobuoni’s value to the Cubs, though. It’s that it’s happening at all. Without Swanson and Hoerner, the Cubs are in desperate need of an actual shortstop on the roster. That’s especially problematic for a team so heavily predicated on good defensive performance. As there isn’t a ton of clarity regarding Hoerner’s short-term health or where the team stands on calling up Luis Vázquez, it’s a crucial defensive development. Mastrobuoni’s last real run at the spot came in 2021, when he was in Double-A. It seemed to fade as part of his skill set, with the corners and keystone serving as spots where you could viably place him. The series in Atlanta could very well indicate Mastrobuoni’s place as a legitimately valuable part of this roster. It’s somewhat bereft of versatility; any player who could theoretically move around is limited to just two or three clearly defined spots (Cody Bellinger, Nick Madrigal) or pinned to the bench altogether (Patrick Wisdom). Mastrobuoni offers actual versatility. Of course, the bat represents something of a problem, even if we’re just getting a pinch of Mastrobuoni in the mix on a more indefinite basis. His wRC+ sits at 53, he’s reaching base at a .290 clip, and he offers almost no power (.051 career ISO). Even if he’s been a touch unlucky (.190 BABIP, .280 xBA), the upside isn’t there for a super regular role. Nevertheless, it’s becoming more difficult to deny the value that Miles Mastrobuoni provides, given the defensive stability he offers at short. If this was a team built to provide more offense and sacrifice some defense in that pursuit, then this is a different conversation. However, given the team’s philosophy and subsequent roster construction, we should probably get used to appreciating exactly what Mastrobuoni adds to the roster. View full article

What if I told you that there is a Chicago Cubs player on the current roster slashing .310/.429/.655, walking at a 17-percent clip, with an ISO of .345 and a wRC+ of 212? And what if I told you that Craig Counsell isn’t putting said player on his lineup card every day? Image courtesy of © John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports In that instance, my hope is that your first inclination would be to ask about the sample size. Because in the case of Patrick Wisdom, it’s only 35 plate appearances deep. Nonetheless, the early returns (in conjunction with some of the struggles from various points throughout the Cubs’ lineup) have me thinking about the benefits of more Wisdom in the starting nine. This thought comes with the obvious caveat of having a space to regularly feature the team’s backup bopper. His “natural” spot, third base, is sealed up by Christopher Morel and Nick Madrigal. First base is largely held down by Michael Busch. The corner outfield spots belong to Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and (occasionally) Mike Tauchman. It makes sense that Wisdom’s playing time distribution looks like it does thus far: four positional starts (two in right field, two at first base), three starts as the designated hitter, and four pinch-hit appearances. Even with injury issues scattered throughout the roster, it’s a lot of bodies in spots where you might otherwise put Wisdom. At the same time, the numbers are at least interesting enough to consider an expanded role. The production is there, in about as minuscule a sample as you can have in mid-May. He’s mashing, in a way that's hard to ignore (if also hard to fully trust). The peripherals look decent, as well. Wisdom has reined in his approach a bit, cutting his swing rate to a hair under 40%, against 46.8% last year. His out-of-zone swing rate, in particular, stands out, as it’s been cut by a full seven percentage points, down to 20.2%. The whiff rate has come down just a bit with the checked aggressiveness (11.8% of all pitches). He hasn’t parlayed it into a wealth of overall contact, but he’s at least walking at a strong pace, on top of hitting the ball hard. Power potential has always made Wisdom a tantalizing player, and that continues to ring true. Five of his nine hits on the year have been of the extra-base variety, and Statcast has him making hard contact exactly half the time. Hard contact is nothing new, but his launch angle is. Wisdom’s 24.7-degree launch angle this year is the steepest of his career. For a lineup bereft of home run power outside of Morel (and Busch’s five-game stretch in April), more Wisdom in the lineup starts to become an alluring notion. Of course, there’s a reason Wisdom is used sparingly. His career K% is closer to 40 than you’re probably comfortable with. His defense isn’t particularly inspiring, no matter where you try to squeeze him in. He’s likely best kept in a small, selective role. At the same time, the Cubs are 23rd in hard-hit rate (37.4%). They’re 12th in ISO (.151). With Busch being inconsistent since mid-April and the complete – and I cannot stress this enough – absence of power from Ian Happ in one outfield corner, it could behoove Counsell to examine the idea of more opportunity for Wisdom. Perhaps a reshaping of the outfield in order to garner more time at the DH spot? Not that we should expect Wisdom to sustain anything like these production rates when stretched out over a longer sample. He is who he is, and who he is is the reason we’re not talking about this with more alacrity. But that hypothetical impact he provides at the plate is something that this team is lacking, over a stretch in which their pitching (especially the bullpen) can’t compensate. The possibility of additional offense seems almost more likely than hoping the current relief corps stabilizes enough to protect leads in the near term. Sure, you might have to compromise a bit on the contact-oriented end of things if it means staving off yet another late-inning disappointment. If the Cubs were getting consistent contributions from other key regulars (Happ), perhaps it’s not a worthy sacrifice. But continued injury and lackluster output start to make it at least a legitimate idea to consider. Let's hear your thoughts on this. Should Wisdom be part of the lineup on a regular basis, at least while Dansby Swanson is injured and the team's lineup is at less than full strength? How would you balance his playing time against that of players like Busch, Happ, and Pete Crow-Armstrong? Join the discussion by commenting below. View full article

Thanks to the tech whizzes inside MLB's official stat site, we have access to a whole new box of analytical toys this week. Let's get familiar with them, and hone in on the Cubs. Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Over the weekend, Statcast brought us to a new frontier in the advancement of knowledge about baseball via data: bat tracking. Therein, we’re getting insights on bat speed (measured in MPH), “fast” swing rates, squared-up contact, and swing length. There are some nuances to this; “Blasts” & “Swords” are included as part of the picture, on either end of the spectrum. And while we still have a ways to go in examining this over a longer period of time within the 2024 context, there are at least a few places where insights are already coming into focus. For starters, Mike Petriello did a comprehensive write-up on the new tools here. Perhaps what is most important for our everyday purposes lies in the general breakdown provided in that piece. As far as bat speed goes: 80+ mph swing speed: .321 BA / .665 SLG / .419 wOBA 52% hard-hit rate / +2 run value per 100 70-79 mph swing speed: .274 BA / .477 SLG / .322 wOBA 46% hard-hit rate / -1.5 run value per 100 0-69 mph bat speed .202 BA / .254 SLG / .205 wOBA 29% hard-hit rate / -4 run value per 100 Regarding squared-up contact: Squared-up: .372 BA / .659 SLG / .439 wOBA 59% hard-hit rate / +11 run value per 100 Not squared-up: .127 BA / .144 SLG / .125 wOBA 1% hard-hit rate / -6 run value per 100 And as for swing lengths: Shorter-than-average swings: .258 BA / .359 SLG / .268 wOBA / 19% whiff rate Longer-than-average swings .235 BA / .422 SLG / .282 wOBA / 30% whiff rate What’s nice about this new information is that it isn’t particularly difficult to understand. Harder swings lead to better results. Squaring up the baseball leads to better results. Shorter swings mean more contact, but less power. Blasts and Swords within the data are relatively self-explanatory. Blasts happen when a hitter achieves high swing speed and squared-up contact. Swords are (sort of) the opposite: awkward, incomplete, or extremely slow swings. Obviously, there is an extensive amount of variation within hitters' mechanics, but this at least gives us some usable insight into the quality of various swings around the game. I’m not going to pretend to be an expert here. I have imposter syndrome in discussing well-established analytical tools to begin with. But there is plenty to glean from the first run of this information as it relates to the Chicago Cubs, even if it isn’t all especially surprising. Here are where all of our North Side friends sit in terms of swing speed & squared-up contact: Unsurprisingly, you’ve got Christopher Morel all the way out there by himself. In fact, Morel’s average bat speed is tied for the fifth-highest (76.7 MPH), while his fast swing rate sits fifth (71.0%). Given his propensity for whiffs, it makes sense that he isn’t higher up the squared-up side of things. But he ranks 29th overall in blasts (32), with one of the longer swing paths in baseball (his 8-foot swing length ranks 11th). Nothing surprising there. We know Morel has a long, aggressive swing. Seeing it reflected in numbers, though, is pretty neat. Somewhat adjacent to Morel in the discussion is Cody Bellinger. With his famously long swing, I’m somewhat surprised his swing length actually comes in a touch lower than his infield counterpart (7.8 feet). It is, however, one of the 25 longest swings in baseball. Equally surprising is that his long stroke isn’t necessarily a detriment to his game, as he’s still squaring up on 29.5 percent of swings--even though his 70.3 MPH swing speed is actually below league average. Nico Hoerner is another interesting quantity among Cubs hitters. He’s on the slower end of bat speed (69.2 MPH), but is doing an excellent job of making squared-up contact. In fact, his 36.4 percent of swings in which he’s squaring up the ball ranks ninth in MLB, among qualified hitters. And he’s doing that without a shorter swing, as his 7.3-foot swing length is middle-tier. More than anything, it’s just a nice way to see Hoerner’s elite contact ability. Representing the antithesis of… most of baseball, is Nick Madrigal. He has one of the slowest swings in baseball (65.8 MPH) and one of the shortest (6.4 ft.). But he’s actually managed to use the latter in squaring up a fairly healthy share of his swings (33.8). What he hasn’t done is parlay that into anything but soft groundball contact (an issue for another day). Some other quick observations: Mike Tauchman leads the Cubs in swords, with six. That’s interesting, given how deliberate his approach seems most of the time. I do suppose, though, that working deep counts makes you somewhat susceptible to a bad decision late in the at-bat. His ability to foul the ball off and extend at-bats might be related to the tendency to look bad now and then. Dansby Swanson has one of the Cubs’ longer swings (7.5 ft). In my head, I’ve always thought of Swanson as someone with a short, inside swing. I think we have a lot of learning ahead in terms of what swing length is really telling us, though. Michael Busch is only squaring up 21.9 percent of his swings. It’s not necessarily surprising, but does speak to the whiff that Busch still needs to work out of his game (as impressive as he’s been). Again, there’s a lot of depth and nuance still to be explored within this new information. But as much as we might want to rely solely on the eye test to give us some insights about hitters’ mechanics, this is a new step in doing so in a much more tangible fashion. View full article

With the return of Seiya Suzuki this weekend, the Chicago Cubs' outfield appears to be back to full strength--that is, except for the lingering difficulties into which one of them just seems to be sinking deeper. Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports I wrote last month about my inability to determine the quality of Ian Happ as a professional baseball player. That struggle resided mainly on the offensive side, where Happ has proven to be varying levels of fine throughout his career. Early this season, his plate discipline was translating to strong on-base numbers and catalyzing a highly effective Chicago Cubs lineup. It left me excited about the 2024 outlook, with him atop the group. The subsequent weeks have not provided me with any clarity. If anything, the picture of his quality – specifically as an offensive entity – has only become murkier. Hilariously, Happ hasn’t led off a game since that piece. He’s hit second and sixth, but has spent the majority of that time in the three hole. That’s run his place in the order this year to six different spots, with only clean-up, eighth, and ninth avoiding him thus far. There are some contextual reasons for that. Injuries to Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki have forced Craig Counsell to reshuffle the lineup. Nico Hoerner’s hot stretch also jumped him from predominantly batting seventh to hanging at the leadoff spot. Nevertheless, Happ’s profile remains enigmatic, likely perpetuating further moves around the lineup. What's befuddling is this: his power is just completely gone. Happ’s .078 ISO ranks 152nd out of 165 qualifying position players. It’s hard to generate pop when you’re spending exactly half your time on the ground--which Happ is, with a 50.0 GB%. That puts him in the top 30 among that same group. Interestingly, Happ’s struggled even more to gain power traction hitting lefty. That's the side from which he’s had more success throughout his career. His career ISO left-handed is at .216 ISO, versus .146 hitting righty. In a more general sense, he possesses a 121 wRC+ left-handed, versus a 94 mark from the other side. His ISO this year is at .148 as a righty and just .059 left-handed. It’s probably important to note that homers mean more in the ISO formula, and Happ’s lone home run came hitting right-handed. But as concerning as the overall power output might be, the left-handed aspect really stands out. At this point, it doesn’t appear that Happ is doing anything mechanically that’s leading to his woes. Instead, it looks like offspeed stuff is utterly neutralizing his power, which usually signals timing trouble. Historically, Happ has struggled to generate quality contact against that pitch type: Opposing pitchers seem to be at least mildly aware of this. He's seeing more offspeed stuff than ever before: While his overall swing percentage against the pitch has dipped (41.8 percent this year against 45-ish percent in 2023), the outcomes remain a problem. He’s whiffing at that pitch with the highest frequency of any of the three groups (36.2 percent). Most alarming, however, is when he does make contact with it. It's all on the ground: It’s pretty astounding that he has a .326 BABIP to date, given these issues. Both Counsell and Happ noted as much – cited in Sahadev Sharma’s recent notes at The Athletic – in discussing his recent issues. A timing issue certainly tracks with some of the trends, but also puts the onus largely on Happ, alone, to work his way out of it. Pitchers won't stop slinging slop up there until he shows he can lay off it even more consistently or start doing something with it. There are still positives to Happ’s game; the most notable is the patient approach. His 4.3 pitches per plate appearance is a career-best mark. His walk rate is eighth among qualified hitters. He’s 83rd percentile in chase rate. But he’s also not using that discipline to drive any real production. He’s still whiffing at too many pitches (38th percentile) and striking out far too much (27.5%). Part of the latter figure is working deep counts, but we simply have not seen enough balls in play to justify Happ hitting toward the front of this lineup. It seems fairly clear what’s plaguing Happ. He’s struggling with a timing issue. Is it possible that his patience is driving that issue? I don’t have anything to prove that, but it is certainly possible to be too patient. The awareness is a positive first step, though. If opposing pitchers continue to work offspeed against Happ, though, those adjustments are going to have to come quickly if he’s going to start to provide value for a Cubs lineup that sorely needs it. View full article

The Chicago Cubs should be back to full strength offensively this weekend in Pittsburgh. When their best hitter returns to a crowded outfield mix, their top prospect could head back to Iowa. Let's explore whether that's the right move. Image courtesy of © John Jones-USA TODAY Sports Pete Crow-Armstrong’s assignment to Triple-A from the season’s outset had more to do with the roster composition of the Chicago Cubs than it did with him. Despite struggling massively at the plate during his 2023 cup of coffee, Crow-Armstrong hasn't fallen into disfavor. The club was simply prepared to move forward with an Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, and Seiya Suzuki alignment across the outfield, and Mike Tauchman supplemented the group as the fourth outfielder. The Cubs also rostered Miles Mastrobuoni, capable of playing just about anywhere. Considering the uncertainty of the infield – specifically on the corners – contingencies for that group made more sense when you’re talking about an Opening Day roster. While it was Alexander Canario who got the first call when the Cubs needed to draw from the pool of Triple-A Iowa outfielders, it’s Crow-Armstrong who stuck around after Bellinger’s return. With Suzuki set to follow in the coming days, the time for the team to reintroduce their outfield trio is at hand. The obvious assumption is that Crow-Armstrong will make the quick trip back to Iowa as a result. Should that be the case, though? The objective answer is… probably. At the risk of undermining myself here, it makes sense from a personnel standpoint. Happ-Bellinger-Suzuki in the outfield, with Tauchman working his way in as the fourth guy and to rotate through the designated hitter spot, is probably the most logistically obvious solution. It’s not as if Crow-Armstrong’s production is setting the world on fire, either. He’s carrying a wRC+ of 64. He’s walking less than 3 percent of the time and, consequently, reaching base at a mere .238 clip. You can’t use your speed tool if you’re not on base, right? Let the bat get a little more seasoning in Iowa and get him in there the next time the injury bug hits, or his offensive production becomes something you can no longer refuse. At the same time, there’s a very real case for Crow-Armstrong to remain on the roster, even when it reaches maximum health. While his offensive output hasn’t necessarily shown him worthy of staying alongside more established bats, it’s not as if it’s been a total loss. He looks comfortable. His 4.16 pitches per plate appearance is a big jump from his tiny 2023 sample, and we saw him work a couple of really tough plate appearances against San Diego pitching this week. He’s making contact at a much-improved 78.5% rate, while actually swinging at a higher clip than he did in his brief big-league time last year. He’s chasing more, yes, but the contact skills are there. While we wait for his occasional power to develop into something more consistent, his 97th-percentile sprint speed could at least put pressure on defenses in a way the rest of the lineup isn’t doing. In the last two weeks, the Cubs are striking out at the sixth-highest rate of all big league teams (25.3%). Crow-Armstrong, with an approach centered on that very thing, could improve that. Any offensive justification of retaining him feels a bit like a stretch. But the more logical rationale for keeping Crow-Armstrong at this level on an indefinite basis is the defense. Statcast’s Fielding Run Value has him at 1, which puts him ahead of both Bellinger (-2) and Tauchman (0). Perhaps more importantly, within a smaller sample, he has 4 Defensive Runs Saved already. The Cubs have allowed fly balls or line drives to center field, right-center, or left-center in the eighth-highest share of all opponent plate appearances this year (21.9%). It’s not an outlandish figure, but it's a big enough one that Crow-Armstrong’s presence could prove a boon if he continues to get run in center. Logistics are not my concern here. That’s Craig Counsell’s job. I will note, though, that the team has one outfielder struggling massively and a DH spot to play with. Seiya Suzuki made a couple appearances in left field this spring. These are just observations. But there is a world in which Crow-Armstrong is part of a completely healthy Cubs lineup. Are we living in that world? Probably not yet. If Tauchman wasn’t going the way he is, then perhaps this would be a more realistic conversation. Ultimately, this is an observation of Crow-Armstrong in a vacuum. The actual roster context probably sends him back to Iowa. I’m not so sure, however, that it’s as much of a given as it might appear. At the very least, it's a conversation worth having. View full article

At the moment, the most talented hitter in the Cubs lineup is also one of their most volatile. After a rough patch in the middle of April, though, he's gotten on track recently. Let's examine how. Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Christopher Morel's defensive evolution at third base has been one of the most consistently discussed aspects of the 2024 Chicago Cubs. That’s a logical trend, given his transition to the spot after a winter of uncertainty and false starts. While we’ve discussed the hot-and-cold nature of his defensive performance – even if the broad strokes indicate improvement – it turns out the bat has been prone to the same level of variability. Morel got off to a fantastic start. His slash on April 9th sat at .326/.370/.605. At that point, he had walked three times and only struck out five, while contributing four extra-base hits. It was a small, 11-game sample, but a strong start, all the same. From that point on, though, his numbers tumbled significantly. Heading into the Cubs’ series in Queens last week – which ran the sample up to 27 games – Morel’s slash was down to .210/.286/.350. He had posted 24 total strikeouts to that point, against 11 walks and only seven extra-base hits. The plate discipline seemed to regress from the early approach that appeared so vastly improved. It was a tough stretch, made more glaring by the absence of two key bats in the lineup, in addition to the fact that Morel wasn’t alone in struggling at the plate. Not that we were worried. Morel has enough big-league production at this point to stand on. But just in case we were, the past handful of days have shown us a player back on the upswing. Starting on Apr. 29 against the Mets, Morel has homered in four of the team’s last seven games. He’s struck out six times, but also walked six times, including a three-walk effort on Sunday afternoon. In a general sense, it’s an encouraging stretch, given Morel’s individual struggles and the broader context of the team’s offensive struggles. But the underlying stuff helps to support the idea of Morel working his way back from a mid-April lull. One of the alarming things about Morel is the apparent regression from what appeared to be improved plate discipline early this season. After his decent start, the O-Swing% started to balloon. The overall swing rate rose, but after only one game with an O-Swing% over 50 percent through Apr. 9, he did it a handful of times over the next couple of weeks. Each of those games correlated with his lowest contact rates throughout that stretch. That’s not an especially revelatory insight: Guy swings at pitches outside of the strike zone, makes less contact. That makes sense. But when we’re looking at a guy who had appeared to improve discipline, those stretches of losing it represent a source of concern. He hasn’t shown discipline over a long enough stretch for it to be considered a legitimate and inextricable part of his game. Then, he bounced back--quickly. Morel has toned down the overall swing rates over the last week and reined the O-Swing% back in. The results speak for themselves. More encouraging is the pitch type he’s swinging against. That two-week stretch of struggle saw Morel swing at fewer fastballs, which represent his highest source of contact. He’s been more active in swinging against the hard stuff over the past week, returning to a more stable trend than he had been at in the two weeks prior. Overall, Morel’s at a .220/.312/.431 line. His wRC+ is 111 and his OPS+ is 109. It’s not exactly where you want (perhaps) your most important bat to be, but over the past week, he's shown that he’s certainly working his way back from those mid-April struggles. Ultimately, though, we likely have little reason to worry, especially once the Cubs lineup returns to full strength. What the early-season volatility of Morel does present, though, is a pair of interesting questions. How much does the totality of the lineup matter in the individual performance of a hitter who is in the final stages of his development? What does plate discipline look like for a full season when it’s going from subpar to (maybe) good? And is any of this quantifiable? The underlying questions are fascinating, and should give us much more to talk about in relation to Morel’s performance as 2024 wears on. View full article

The Chicago Cubs' rotation didn't line up the way they might have preferred for this weekend's first showdown with the team with whom they're tussling for early control of the NL Central. It didn't matter. Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports The Chicago Cubs pitching staff has had a rather cumbersome past couple of weeks. Already a team with a slim margin for error, injuries have conspired to remove that margin altogether. Without Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki, it's an uphill battle on the offensive end. With multiple regulars seemingly entering a slump at once, things became more difficult. They've scored three or fewer runs seven times over the past two weeks, putting more pressure on a still-depleted pitching unit. While good news is on the horizon regarding the health of their two offensive catalysts, the bullpen has also had its share of woes. Whether it’s the immense struggles of Adbert Alzolay or the tightrope walking of Héctor Neris, late-game situations haven’t been super kind to the relief corps (or to our collective nerves). This has left a heavy onus on the starters to walk the proverbial tightrope. The cruel irony of that is that the rotation isn’t without its own issues. Justin Steele has been out since Opening Day, though he returns Monday. Kyle Hendricks struggled massively before winding up on the IL. In the interim, the Cubs have had to piece together a rotation with, essentially, a rebound candidate and some high-upside--but very inexperienced--arms in their place. Boy, did they deliver this weekend. The Cubs took two of three from Milwaukee in a series that felt as crucial as one in May can. The starters who made that possible? Hayden Wesneski, Jameson Taillon, and Javier Assad. And just like we all expected, the trio didn’t allow a run across any of their starts. Milwaukee had an opportunity to be a particularly infuriating opponent for this Cubs starting group. The Cubs’ starting arms are middle-tier in K% (22.4) and have given up the fifth-most contact in the league (79.7 percent). Where they thrive is in forcing soft contact. The group’s 26.2 HardHit% against trails only the New York Yankees. They’re able to do that while inducing the second-most swings, behind only Seattle (50.1%). In hosting the Brewers, they went up against a club that doesn’t make a ton of contact (75.7 percent), but also swings the bat as rarely as anyone in baseball (43.0 percent). Given that, it was a matchup that appeared to favor the Cubs at least slightly, as their typical approach would force the Brewers into swinging at a higher frequency. Yet, the Crew’s .315 collective BABIP had the chance to be an obnoxious component in the weekend’s activities, from the Cubs’ perspective. Thankfully, it turns out that when you maintain the type of approach we saw from the Cubs’ starting trio over the weekend, the BABIP monster works for you, rather than against you. The Brewers turned in a BABIP of just .214 against Wesneski on Friday. He scattered three hits and only walked two. He didn’t do anything overpowering or special: the most notable aspect of his 6 1/3 innings was going fastball- and sweeper-heavy. He limited contact more than his starting counterparts (albeit narrowly, at 78.4%), with that pitch combo working to keep Milwaukee off-balance throughout the start. He just had it working, even if the bullpen didn’t. Wesneski’s start stands in a bit of contrast to the Cubs’ other two starters over the weekend. Taillon threw six innings, only walked two, and struck out seven. Assad threw six of his own, walking three, and striking out four. Their approaches to the Milwaukee lineup, though, varied widely. In his start, the former recorded a Zone% of 47.5. He got the Brewers to swing 46.5 percent of the time, including 42.3% on pitches outside of the strike zone. That’s out of character and outside their comfort zone, given that the Brewers have swung at only 24.0 percent of pitches that weren’t inside the zone. While he surrendered a fair bit of contact (about 84%), only 7.1 percent of Milwaukee’s contact was hard. On top of that, they put the ball on the ground at an even 50% clip. Similarly, Assad worked in the zone with decent regularity (45.7%). He also gave up pretty consistent contact (89.5%), but had the Brewers driving the baseball into the ground. His GB% was an absurd 70.6 percent, with only 22.2% hard contact. Wesneski was able to generate more swing-and-miss, but the latter two found their own ways to minimize damage. The zone distribution also reflects what made each of the three so successful this weekend. Both Wesneski & Taillon worked fastball up, breaking stuff down. Assad worked more horizontally, keeping pitches down, regardless of type. Even if it feels mildly disappointing to miss out on a sweep that was well within reach, the starting pitching was beyond encouraging this weekend. Assad continued one of the more dominant stretches of any pitcher in the bigs. Taillon continued to bounce back from his abomination of a 2023 season. And Wesneski showed he has the chops to hang as a starter. None of these things are surprising, of course. We know the upside and/or history of each of the three. But it’s about the opponent. The Brewers have made a living off BABIP thus far. Their pitching has struggled, but their young group of bats put balls in play and generate runs they have no business generating. This weekend, the Cubs demonstrated that their starting group has the appropriate approach to mitigating that: get them to swing the bats and let the defense do the work. Considering they could remain the team’s top competition for a division title, the outcomes on the bump should bode well for their 10 remaining games this year. View full article

Despite a huge play Wednesday night that briefly rescued him from the bad books of Cubs fans, the team's backup third baseman is becoming almost unplayable. Is that role also becoming less important, anyway? Image courtesy of © Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports If you’ve followed this space for any length of time, you know the Chicago Cubs’ third base situation is something on which I’ve maintained a steady eye. That goes back to the spring, when the team decided to give Christopher Morel a more extended run there than we saw under the previous regime. While Morel has grabbed the bulk of the starts, we’ve continued to see a good amount of Nick Madrigal. Patrick Wisdom – late to the party due to a back injury in March – has only been used sparingly, at least at third base. Overall, this is how the position’s distribution looked through April: Morel: 22 appearances, 22 starts Madrigal: 22 appearances, 9 starts Wisdom: 2 appearances, 0 starts It’s at least slightly different than we may have anticipated. Instead of mixing in Morel on a more occasional basis, Craig Counsell has essentially handed over the reins of the position full-time from the jump. This has come primarily at Madrigal’s expense. He only has 39 plate appearances to date, being deployed mainly as a late-game defensive substitute. In the grand context of things, that certainly makes the most sense. It might just be a little sooner than we initially thought, given how much promise Madrigal did show with the glove in 2023. But Madrigal, of course, poses a very specific problem. As our friend Tommy Meyers (@FullCountTommy) pointed out, his offensive output as a Cub has not been anything resembling acceptable. And as unimpressive as the total body of work may be, 2024 specifically has been a rough stretch for our favorite small-in-stature Oregon State Beaver. Madrigal’s offensive profile has always been that of the slap hitter. He’s contact-oriented, but doesn’t offer a ton otherwise. This year – albeit in that very small 39-PA sample – has shown how far south things can go when you don’t compensate with any other tools as a hitter. His slash includes a .194 average & .256 on-base percentage. He’s carrying a wRC+ of 49, thanks largely to the fact that he’s putting the ball on the ground 58.8 percent of the time and making hard contact at a mere 20.6 percent rate. We shouldn't expect a ton from a bench bat--let alone Madrigal’s bat, specifically. Nor have we expected his offensive profile to fit that of a typical third baseman. But as Tommy pointed out as part of his Twitter discussion, it’s less a matter of him producing in a broad context and more a matter of if he’s even a rosterable player at this point. It’s a harsh question, but one with merit. There are 369 players who have at least 30 plate appearances to their name this season. Madrigal’s HardHit% is in the 40 lowest, while his GB% is in the 20 highest. His wRC+ ranks 322nd of that group. Given those data, we can't treat a .206 BABIP as a bad luck situation. Even with Madrigal’s impressive contact rate, he has to make better contact to be even moderately effective. His Soft% (20.6) is the highest it’s been since he made 109 plate appearances with the White Sox in 2020. While it’s by a slim margin, it's also notable that he’s making contact at the lowest rate of his career, while chasing at the highest. The defense hasn’t even been there to compensate. He’s at a -2 Fielding Run Value, while also coming in below average in the more familiar OAA & DRS metrics. It’s a small sample, especially in a defensive context, but everything we’re discussing here is. He's looked better than that, by the eye test, and he saved the game for the team Wednesday night, but he has to be great to hold onto any value with his bat where it's been so far. There’s obviously a world in which Nick Madrigal is a useful bench bat. Theoretically, his high-contact bat should be a boon for this group, given some of the whiff tendencies elsewhere on the roster. But his production has been even more absent than his previous injury-shortened seasons with the organization, and the trends don’t indicate a single thing that offers optimism. My original intention here wasn’t to go in on Madrigal quite to that extent (Tommy covered that well enough on his own). I love living in the abstract world where maybe, potentially, hopefully, Madrigal can be a useful bench player. That isn’t reality right now. A team with division title aspirations shouldn’t live in that abstract world. Instead, my intention here is to ponder exactly what the Cubs need out of Christopher Morel before they pivot to a more useful offensive player in a bench role. Unfortunately, the question is probably an unanswerable one. Morel’s defensive output this year doesn’t look terrific. His -3 FRV is tied as the league’s worst mark and Baseball Savant has him at a -5% success rate added. But Madrigal’s also at a -2 FRV & -8% success rate added. Our eyes tell us just how much improvement Morel has made in a short time. With that in mind, the Cubs could move on, like, tomorrow without their late-game third baseman and (probably) be just fine. In that case, they’d also have to be comfortable moving forward with Wisdom as the No. 2 man at the position. He was well below average in 2022, across 900+ innings (-9 FRV) and half as bad in half the time in 2023 (-4 FRV). But you’re not necessarily talking about an extended run, either. The odd off day for Morel isn’t going to present many opportunities for Wisdom’s lackluster defense to hurt you. Plus, there’s always the opportunity for his career .254 ISO to offer literally anything at the plate, against the entirely bereft profile of Madrigal. If Madrigal’s defense was at the level the metrics showed us last year, this becomes a tougher argument to make. It's important to acknowledge that such a move isn’t imminent. The Cubs are running on a shorter bench at present, given the injuries to Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger. But their respective absences also illustrate the need for offensive depth. A lineup with Wisdom stepping in for Morel – even on the rarest of occasions – offers far more upside. My ultimate point here is this: when healthy, Morel’s defense is reaching a point where he’s the full-time guy at the position. It won’t be without hiccups, but he’s reaching the point where Counsell won’t need the safety net of a late-game substitute. And that should lead to more direct opportunities for Wisdom to find his way into the lineup over Madrigal. If those opportunities become reality and the Cubs become healthy, I think then we’re reaching a point where the Cubs can be comfortable with a third base picture – on both sides of the ball – that doesn’t involve Madrigal. And – perhaps unfortunately, given that alternate reality in which I’d prefer to live – the team will be better for it. View full article

With a densely packed early schedule, the Cubs have maintained an equitable timeshare at catcher so far. They're not alone in trying to keep backstops fresh this way. Still, the balance needs to keep tilting toward the younger half of their unit. Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports If you rewind the time continuum to the offseason, the catcher spot is not one you will find among the Cubs' uncertainties. From the end of the 2023 season until Opening Day 2024, we knew that the tandem of Yan Gomes & Miguel Amaya would be behind the plate--barring any unforeseen circumstances, of course. Gomes did a fine job, by all accounts, in each of the last two years. He provided stability for a precision-based pitching staff, while contributing only occasionally on offense. Amaya got his first taste of the bigs in '23, after several years of “catcher of the future" hype. While the pair didn’t offer a ton of long-term clarity – given Gomes’s age and Amaya’s inexperience – the organization knew they’d at least have stability at the spot heading into the new season. Through 30 games, Amaya has appeared 19 times (17 starts) to Gomes’s 16 (13 starts). A weighty distribution? Not particularly. It is, however, extremely intriguing, and might have more to say about the tandem moving forward than we’d expect in April. The reality is that there’s an option here that very obviously represents the superior catcher, and it’s a gap that only appears to be widening. That gap exists on both sides of the ball. It’s not as if one is exceeding the other on defense, even if the other option might offer a bit more offensively--or vice-versa--in the types of situations you tend to see around the league. In the case of Gomes & Amaya – or is it Amaya & Gomes? – it’s very clear in each facet. Let’s dive into the offense first. It’s a bit easier to digest as an appetizer, before the main course of catching metrics still in their relative infancy. Neither offers a ton at the plate, in a big-picture sense. Amaya is running a 71 OPS+ as of this writing; Gomes, though, is at 42. In other words, both are below-average bats, but Amaya is, at least, showing some upside. He’s making contact (76-ish percent) and striking out (25-ish percent) at roughly the same rates as last year, despite losing all sense of plate discipline. If he can rein that in, there’s an opportunity to realize his occasional power on a more consistent basis--especially given that his HardHit% is notably up (31.0 percent vs. 26.9 last year). With the higher end of his potential on the defensive side, such a trend would only solidify his status as an emerging higher-end player at the position. In contrast, Gomes has provided virtually nothing with the bat. His plate discipline has soured, as he’s made significantly less contact in each of his three seasons with the team than in the season before. His quality of contact is down, and Gomes has not taken a single walk in 2024. Given his 35% strikeout rate, that's nearly unfathomable. Not that any of this is a surprise. Gomes was always a defense-first type behind the plate, favored because of his unquantifiable ability to handle the staff. Amaya was going to have more to offer on offense. I think the expectation was that the playing time distribution for the full season could reflect that, even if Amaya gradually stepped into a larger capacity as it wore on. But as the calendar page flips to May, that distribution – whose expected presence was initially wrought by the defensive “superiority” of the veteran – appears to be getting turned on its head by the younger of the two. Matt Trueblood wrote a fantastic piece about Miguel Amaya’s growth at the beginning of the month. Therein, he focused most heavily on the defensive strides made by Amaya, particularly in regard to framing and Amaya’s setup behind the plate. Now, a handful of weeks removed from that piece, the numbers are really starting to take shape between the two. Here’s where the two stack up against one another, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus’s catching metrics: CSAA FrmR EPAA SRAA CDA M. Amaya 0.005 1.0 -0.001 0.008 1.1 Y. Gomes -0.011 -1.7 0.001 0.004 -1.8 The only spot where Amaya doesn’t maintain a significant advantage over his counterpart is in blocking pitches in the dirt. Pitch framing and the arm behind the plate each favor Amaya heavily. In both Called Strikes Above Average & Framing Runs, Amaya not only far exceeds the performance of Gomes, but is outstanding among all backstops with at least 100 innings (of which there are 40 names). Amaya’s CSAA ranks eighth among that group, while his FrmR sits ninth. Gomes is 40th in the former and 39th in the latter. The blocking situation is marginal, given that the league leader in Errant Pitches Above Average is the Mets’ Francisco Alvarez at 0.002. Don’t get me wrong, it’s an important component, given the verticality of approach of the Cubs’ staff. But 38 of the 40 catchers on that list fall at either end of the Amaya-Gomes pairing. Then we flip to the arm, where Amaya’s Swipe Rate Above Average sits 11th (Gomes is 15th). Really, though, we don’t need to look too much farther than the comprehensive Catcher Defensive Adjustment. Amaya is eighth there. Gomes is 39th. This shouldn’t come as a shock. Amaya’s output far exceeded that of his veteran running mate even last year. His CDA was 2.3, to Gomes’s -7.2. But as Amaya continues to show growth reflected in the metrics, in addition to growing in comfort with the collective staff, this is a gap that is only going to get wider. Amaya still has improvements to make, mind you. On both sides of the ball. We know what Yan Gomes is at this point. And while he served admirably while the Cubs (presumably) waited for Amaya to reach this level, it’s high time he makes himself comfortable in the back seat. View full article

Injuries that have limited or removed all three of the Chicago Cubs' top outfielders should have dented their record more than it has so far. They're 18-11, atop the National League Central, and they owe a lot of that to a guy I didn't believe in at all. Image courtesy of © Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports I spent the better part of 2023 refusing to accept Mike Tauchman as a legitimate part of the Chicago Cubs’ roster. A fringe player over 30 years old who hadn't made an appearance at the big-league level in 2022 wasn’t worthy of 400-plus plate appearances for a team with playoff aspirations, in my estimation. Obviously, that opinion isn’t unique, in itself. Although Craig Counsell reportedly locked Tauchman into a roster spot from the jump this spring, my initial assumption was that he wouldn’t be around to see 2024 all the way through. To keep pace with the other contenders in the National League, the team needs to deploy the best hitters in the organization. The outfield depth the Cubs have at the upper minors is close to a breakthrough, ready to supplant him. Yet, as the calendar prepares to flip to May, I’m dangerously close to not only accepting Tauchman as a fixture on this roster, but accepting it entirely as legitimate. Naturally, the striking moment was his three-run homer at Fenway on Sunday night. Even if the Cubs ultimately lost that game, that shot injected new life into one of the more monotonous viewing experiences of the year. And it’s not like it was an individual flash, either. Tauchman leads the team in fWAR (0.9). He leads the team in walk rate (17.1%). Nobody has a higher HardHit% than his 42.6%. As a result, his on-base percentage is pacing the group at .432. This is across 88 plate appearances--not enough to qualify, but only 30 or so behind the team’s full-time group. The deeper you drill, the more encouraging It gets. In addition to the hard contact, Tauchman is working counts with real depth. His 4.8 pitches per plate appearance represents a career high, and a notable jump over last year’s 4.3. It’s also well above league leader Mike Trout’s 4.6 P/PA. Among 210 hitters with at least 80 PAs this year, Tauchman’s 17.3 percent O-Swing% is one of the 10 lowest. Conversely, his Z-Swing%, at 73.7, is one of the 25 highest among that group. Even more encouraging is his contact distribution. Tauchman’s 40-ish percent Oppo% is a 10-point jump from last year. He’s been more active in swinging on the outer part of the strike zone, but is driving it from that spot, as well. He’s at a 42.9% hard-hit rate on opposite-field contact, which represents a 20-point jump from 2023. His eye for the zone is elite, even on a team where “professional at-bats” run deep. Even in working deep counts, he’s still managed to cut his strikeout rate down to a career-low 19.3%. What has driven me to an actual appreciation of Tauchman – beyond the exceptional discipline – is the timing in all of this. It’s not that he wasn’t getting run with Seiya Suzuki or Cody Bellinger in the lineup; he was. But with that pair on the IL, Tauchman’s approach in the lineup has been indispensable. Since Suzuki hit the IL on Apr. 15, Tauchman has reached base safely in 11 of 14 games. Eight of those 10 have featured multiple appearances on base. The sample isn’t large enough to showcase a genuine improvement in the approach. Nor are we sure about the composition of the lineup once everyone is healthy. While Tauchman may not be the most impactful bat on paper, the skill set he’s providing in 2024 remains crucial within this lineup, especially as contact wanes in certain sectors of the starting nine. He’ll remain a fixture in this lineup, even upon the return of the other two-thirds of the team’s starting outfield. And he should. Maybe David Ross was right all along. View full article

My favorite type of hitter is the patient one. I believe that hitters with strong plate discipline showcase demonstrate an intellectual component that I’m fascinated with. They’re calculated. At the same time, I can also appreciate the (seemingly rare) hitter who can swing at a majority of pitches but find himself on base with regularity all the same. Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports Nico Hoerner has been both of these hitters in a single month. On April 13th, Hoerner was hitting .171. His wRC+ was only 77; his ISO was .024. In the broad way in which we typically evaluate hitters, it wasn’t getting off to the kind of start he might’ve aimed for. Especially given his revamped approach. While Hoerner was hitting only .171, his on-base percentage sat at .352. His walk rate (16.7 percent) exceeded his strikeout rate (13.0 percent). That was all intentional. Hoerner wanted to walk more. He wanted to work the count and find his way on base beyond hitting himself there. The results were part of that process. His Swing% was just 40.1, including a mere 23.1 on pitches outside the strike zone. He only whiffed at only 7.8 percent of pitches. That’s an important thing to note about his early-season output. The walk rate was a positive byproduct of limiting chase, even if the results in actually swinging the bat didn’t come along with it. Even with a Contact% lingering around 80, he was still able to contribute meaningfully. Since that point in the timeline, though, Hoerner has instead crept back toward his free-swinging ways. His Swing% has jumped up by a full 10 percent (50.3) over the past 10 or so days. Along with it, his O-Swing% crept up to 40.4. What’s absurd within that is that Hoerner hasn’t lost anything. In fact, he’s only gained traction. His Contact% is 89.7 over that stretch. His Whiff% is just 5.2 percent. It’s a stretch that’s brought his cumulative plate discipline figures closer in line with his career norms. As of this writing, his Swing% for the season sits at 44.8; his chase rate is 30.8, and his whiff rate is 6.6 percent. His contact rate is 85.1. There’s some further nuance here, too. Hoerner is demonstrating slightly less hard contact now that he’s making more of it. The walk rate is also down to just 2.2 percent. He is, however, hitting to all fields with more regularity. All three parts of the field come in at least 30 percent in his distribution. His strikeout rate is also lower than it was in the first half of April. This recent stretch probably isn’t a version of Nico Hoerner that we should grow accustomed to. A Swing% at or above 50 hasn’t been on his stat sheet since 2019. He’s always been able to maintain patience and limit whiffs while simultaneously offering high contact rates. If anything, perhaps the revamped approach was an overcorrection for him, hoping to drive up the walk rate. I suppose there’s merit in trying to enhance a specific element of your game, especially given the depth offered by simply being a hitter in baseball. It’s something of a pick-your-poison situation. Do you want the patient hitter who walks a bunch and doesn’t strike out but whose patience might be limiting balls in play? Or do you want the contact-oriented approach, with only occasional walks but sprays hits all over the field? I imagine that’s the case for the Cubs’ skipper, too. Craig Counsell has intermittently deployed Hoerner out of the leadoff spot throughout the year, even before Ian Happ’s recent hamstring issue. I’d be willing to bet there’s merit in leading off your more aggressive contact monster and your uber-patient walk machine, depending on the matchup. When that’s appropriate, though, is well above my paygrade. View full article

As a person who overreacts to everything, it sometimes becomes difficult to watch the Chicago Cubs play defense in a measured fashion. A failed pick at first by Michael Busch or the odd mistake from Dansby Swanson and I’m ready to sprint to conclusions. Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports It’s an interesting paradox in which to reside for someone so consumed by defense and recognizing the sample it requires to genuinely analyze as a result. But as we prepare to hit the end of April and guys have settled into spots accordingly, it now seems like a point at which to take a temperature check. What the numbers say might not have as much value at this early stage, but it’s at least worth exploring in comparison to last year. This is in addition to where certain players are performing in the larger context of Major League Baseball. The most obvious place to start – and probably, subconsciously, the basis for this article – is on the infield corners. After all, these were the only positions remotely in question throughout much of the winter. Even after the acquisition of Michael Busch for first and the decision to run with Christopher Morel at third, long-term stability was far from a given. And yet, the Cubs may have fallen into such luck at not one of those spots but each of them. The Cubs had seven players appear at first base last year, with Patrick Wisdom’s 77 innings representing the fewest among the group. They combined to rank 21st in the league in the very comprehensive Fielding Run Value (-4), 20th in Outs Above Average (-5), and 12th in Defensive Runs Saved (1). In that sense, Michael Busch has, thus far, represented an upgrade. He has a FRV of 0 and an OAA of 1. DRS is the only metric that doesn’t love him, at -3 to this point. Of course, metrics tend to collude against first base anyway, so there’s likely always going to be one naysayer among the trio. While Busch has had the occasional issue with a pick or a low throw, the overall results have been sound. Sometimes, they’re even more so. Like this one against the Dodgers. Or this one against Houston. A middle infield featuring Swanson & Nico Hoerner, combined with the rapid improvement of Morel, tends to make life pretty easy on a first baseman from the jump. Despite lacking a defensive home, the fact that he’s been as solid as he has speaks to a solid trajectory moving forward. On the other side, Morel came in with much more scrutiny. The Cubs forewent the opportunity to sign Matt Chapman, instead opting to place Morel there, despite the third base picture not looking unlike the one on the other side. The team had five players appear at the hot corner (four if we want to exclude Edwin Ríos’ eight innings), of which only Nick Madrigal emerged of good quality in the eyes of the metrics. Our favorite smaller-than-your-average-baseball-player posted an FRV of 8, an OAA of 10, and a DRS of 8. Not bad for his first full-time run at the spot, like, ever. Of course, offensive profiles matter to some extent, and Madrigal’s didn’t work as a full-time third sacker, which is why it’s been so welcome a development to see Morel’s early improvement there. Overall, FRV has him at -1. OAA has him at -2. DRS is -1. So, slightly below average to this point. Given some of the mistakes we saw in the spring and the first week of the season, those numbers actually appear…fine? Swaths of fans were ready to pull the plug after just a few games. The arm has played. The glove just needs to follow. Only then will Morel get a full nine innings there. But he’s well on his way. If there’s a concern to be expressed over the defense to date, it’s not on the corners. It’s certainly not on the middle infield, where Swanson & Hoerner continue to live among the league’s best metrics-wise. The outfield, however, is leaving something to be desired. The Cubs’ group of outfielders sits 26th in FRV (-3), 23rd in OAA (-3), and 13th in DRS (1). Ian Happ & Cody Bellinger have been below average by the metrics. Bellinger was already having a tough inning before a misread led to his current rib injury, as he appeared to lose a ball in the lights. Interestingly, that sort of represents the biggest concern for this group: light sources. While there isn’t a metric to place it, the Cubs have (anecdotally) appeared to lose more balls in the sun or stadium lights than any other team in baseball. More worrisome is that it largely comes from their three starters across the grass: Happ, Bellinger, and Seiya Suzuki. I suppose that’s a positive aspect of Pete Crow-Armstrong’s return to the top club. The bat may not be there yet, but you know you’re getting premium defense. Given injuries, with so many moving parts in the outfield, he should bring up-the-middle stability to the defensive picture out there. Here's a quick peek at the catching (something I’ll likely expand on later this week). I love what we’re getting from Miguel Amaya. He ranks fifth among backstops with at least 50 innings in Baseball Prospectus’ Catcher Defensive Adjustment (1.0) and eighth in Called Strikes Above Average (0.006). Yan Gomes ranks 52nd in CDA (-1.4) and CSAA (-0.011). It’s still early, but there may be a gap establishing between the two of them. Ultimately, we’re at the end of April. And I’m throwing out a bunch of metrics that need a significant sample to mean anything at all while also adjusting to a world of FRV against OAA & DRS. But it’s something to monitor, especially given the team’s continued roster construction and need for high-end defense. In short: middle infield good, corners improving, catchers just-okay-to-probably-quite-good, and outfield can’t field baseballs with light involved. Still a long way to go in the defensive game. View full article

With any semblance of protection from the rest of the lineup dwindling due to injury, the Chicago Cubs' rookie slugger has hit a rough patch this week. Why? And how can he get out of it? Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports A stretch like this was always inevitable. Of course, to even call this a stretch would be, in fact, a stretch. But Michael Busch has gone four consecutive games without recording a hit. He’s struck out nine times across those four games, including eight in this three-game set against Houston. Not that this is cause for any panic. As recently as Saturday, Busch was slashing .328/.405/.656. His streak of five straight games with a home run was just a week and a half ago. He was, arguably, the most exciting hitter in the Cubs’ lineup. It is worthwhile, however, to take a quick glance under the hood of this last set of games, to see if there’s anything that we should maybe (at the very least) monitor. There isn’t much you’re going to glean from such a small sample. Obviously. But there are at least a couple of things we can point to as interesting, given the lackluster outcomes. Fastballs have been, by a wide margin, the pitch type Busch has seen most often this year; he’s seen about 52% heaters, against roughly 30% and 18% breaking and offspeed, respectively. In the last four games, Busch has seen his lowest percentage of fastballs in consecutive games. He’s had individual games where opposing pitchers have avoided the hard stuff. This is the first instance of it happening over multiple games, though. The Marlins found a way to sequence and attack him; the Astros had one in advance. If this is an adjustment that opposing pitchers are making, it’s a logical one. Breaking pitches are the group against which Busch has generated the least hard contact (though a 36.4 HardHit% is still cromulent). It’s also the subset most likely to generate a strikeout from Busch. He’s whiffing at those pitches at a 36.4% clip. Busch has also expanded the zone more often than we had seen prior to the last few days. Impressively, his chase rate resisted the inflationary pressure of a long road trip, but after coming home and seeing teams switch up the mix against him, Busch's plate discipline has finally cracked a bit. His chase rate was 21.2% through Saturday, but since then, it's 33.3%. The overall Swing% is up only slightly, so the fact that he’s chasing and whiffing is at least notable. Overall, it’s not as if a four-game stretch – even in the ultimate small sample that April represents – is going to damage Busch’s output. His ISO (.280) still sits in the top 10 among qualifying position players. His 4.5 pitches per plate appearance is still a mark well above league average. The strikeout rate is up there, but not skyrocketing horrifically in the wake of his brief (to date) struggles. The stat sheet still looks good in more places than it doesn’t. What becomes important for Busch at this point, though, is the adjustment to be made. We’ve seen him adjust at each level. Those adjustments have also come after an extended run, however (2021 to 2022 in Double-A, 2022 to 2023 in Triple-A). If the “trends” over a four-game sample are indicative of a larger adjustment on the part of opposing pitchers, then Busch is going to have to demonstrate the ability to make quick counteradjustments. It’s not as if the Cubs have a wealth of thriving offensive talent at present. They might have had that on Opening Day, but now, too much of that talent is on the IL. Busch can (and likely will) adjust, if necessary. It just needs to happen fast, for this team. View full article