Approach Changes Show Signs of a Gradual Smoothing Out for Christopher Morel

Christopher Morel's defensive evolution at third base has been one of the most consistently discussed aspects of the 2024 Chicago Cubs. That’s a logical trend, given his transition to the spot after a winter of uncertainty and false starts. While we’ve discussed the hot-and-cold nature of his defensive performance – even if the broad strokes indicate improvement – it turns out the bat has been prone to the same level of variability. 

Morel got off to a fantastic start. His slash on April 9th sat at .326/.370/.605. At that point, he had walked three times and only struck out five, while contributing four extra-base hits. It was a small, 11-game sample, but a strong start, all the same. From that point on, though, his numbers tumbled significantly.

Heading into the Cubs’ series in Queens last week – which ran the sample up to 27 games – Morel’s slash was down to .210/.286/.350. He had posted 24 total strikeouts to that point, against 11 walks and only seven extra-base hits. The plate discipline seemed to regress from the early approach that appeared so vastly improved. It was a tough stretch, made more glaring by the absence of two key bats in the lineup, in addition to the fact that Morel wasn’t alone in struggling at the plate.

Not that we were worried. Morel has enough big-league production at this point to stand on. But just in case we were, the past handful of days have shown us a player back on the upswing.

Starting on Apr. 29 against the Mets, Morel has homered in four of the team’s last seven games. He’s struck out six times, but also walked six times, including a three-walk effort on Sunday afternoon. In a general sense, it’s an encouraging stretch, given Morel’s individual struggles and the broader context of the team’s offensive struggles. But the underlying stuff helps to support the idea of Morel working his way back from a mid-April lull.  

One of the alarming things about Morel is the apparent regression from what appeared to be improved plate discipline early this season. After his decent start, the O-Swing% started to balloon. The overall swing rate rose, but after only one game with an O-Swing% over 50 percent through Apr. 9, he did it a handful of times over the next couple of weeks. Each of those games correlated with his lowest contact rates throughout that stretch.

That’s not an especially revelatory insight: Guy swings at pitches outside of the strike zone, makes less contact. That makes sense. But when we’re looking at a guy who had appeared to improve discipline, those stretches of losing it represent a source of concern. He hasn’t shown discipline over a long enough stretch for it to be considered a legitimate and inextricable part of his game. Then, he bounced back--quickly.

Morel has toned down the overall swing rates over the last week and reined the O-Swing% back in. The results speak for themselves. More encouraging is the pitch type he’s swinging against. That two-week stretch of struggle saw Morel swing at fewer fastballs, which represent his highest source of contact. He’s been more active in swinging against the hard stuff over the past week, returning to a more stable trend than he had been at in the two weeks prior.

Overall, Morel’s at a .220/.312/.431 line. His wRC+ is 111 and his OPS+ is 109. It’s not exactly where you want (perhaps) your most important bat to be, but over the past week, he's shown that he’s certainly working his way back from those mid-April struggles. Ultimately, though, we likely have little reason to worry, especially once the Cubs lineup returns to full strength. 

What the early-season volatility of Morel does present, though, is a pair of interesting questions. How much does the totality of the lineup matter in the individual performance of a hitter who is in the final stages of his development? What does plate discipline look like for a full season when it’s going from subpar to (maybe) good? And is any of this quantifiable?

The underlying questions are fascinating, and should give us much more to talk about in relation to Morel’s performance as 2024 wears on.