Matthew Trueblood

A decade ago, the Cubs picked up a right-handed reliever with an uneven track record and a tilted cap in a July trade. This week, they did it again. Will things pan out as nicely this time? Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports The similarities between Pedro Strop at the time the Cubs acquired him and Jose Cuas now are obvious. It's almost eerie. Like Strop, Cuas is a stocky, strong Dominican right-hander with a nasty slider. Both bloomed and established themselves in MLB at an advanced age. Strop had 144 appearances and 128 innings of experience in the majors before the trade that brought him to the Cubs from Baltimore in 2013, with a 4.14 ERA. Cuas, 29, is a year older than Strop was then, but had a 4.08 ERA in his 79 innings with the Royals. Both guys were held back by control problems in their early phase, but the Cubs were able to help Strop straighten things out. If they can do the same with Cuas, the payoff could be just as exciting. The upside for Cuas is to emerge as a high-leverage reliever before this season even concludes. That's because Cuas has a unique release point, and some pitch characteristics that could make him viciously difficult to handle for opposing hitters. Here's a plot of the horizontal and vertical release points of every pitcher who has thrown at least 500 pitches in the big leagues this year. The only right-handed reliever who comes from as far toward third base (in terms of position on the rubber and arm slot) than Cuas is Giants submariner Tyler Rogers. The angle Cuas creates for opposing hitters is extremely difficult. That's not only true because of how far toward third base he is, though. Coming from the low arm slot he uses, his ability to use the top of the zone with his fastball makes him unique, too. The most-hyped pitch data this year centers on Vertical Approach Angle (VAA)--a factor of a pitch's velocity, its location, and the pitcher's release point. Breaking balls need steep VAA. Fastballs, and especially four-seamers, need flat ones. Of the 389 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 four-seam fastballs this year, only Adam Cimber has a flatter VAA than Cuas. With that same extreme arm angle, Cuas creates one of the more extreme Horizonal Approach Angles (HAA) in baseball on his sinker and his slider. That constellation of weapons and traits gives him huge upside. Reaching it is largely a matter of commanding and controlling his stuff, but it will also require some careful calibration. When the Cubs dealt for Cuas, some expected him to go to the minor leagues, or even to the team's spring complex in Arizona. There was some thought that he would be reengineered altogether, in the Cubs' so-called pitch lab. Instead, he was activated right away, and that's the right call. He wasn't dominating with the Royals, but he was in the big leagues with them, and he's already on the doorstep of 30. That he has minor-league options is terrific, because it adds flexibility to a somewhat rigidly-constructed bullpen, but sending Cuas down should only be a way of navigating the difficult task of keeping enough fresh arms available late in a season. If he's going to iron out the things that have prevented him from dominating big-league batters, he's likely to do it from the big-league roster. Already, we can see how he might tweak his approach, and we have some tiny insight into how the Cubs would prefer that he do so. In mid-May, he started throwing his four-seamer, something he had previously abandoned in favor of a strictly sinker-slider attack. We've already talked about how, due to his release point, Cuas's four-seamer could be overpowering. On the other hand, though, that four-seamer has proved hard for Cuas to command. Given the way he throws, that's not surprising. Maybe that's why he stuck to the sinker in his first appearance with the Cubs; maybe they feel he can be most effective by focusing on two pitches. It's too early to know that, either way, but it's one plausible way for him to unlock the potential of his unique delivery and pitch movement. Speaking of movement, we saw some immediate indications that Cuas might change the shape of his slider. Eventually, the separation between his four-seamer and his sinker could allow him to use them both, but pair them with the slider under different circumstances. Against most righties, he'll be better off with the lateral contrast between the sinker and slider. Against many lefties, though, he can use the elevated four-seamer to set up the slider down--especially since he showed extra depth on the offering in his Cubs debut. Strop was an improbable success. Replicating what they did with him, 10 years later, will be extremely difficult. The default assumption should be that if Cuas could do what Strop did, he'd have done it by now. Still, this will be worth watching throughout the home stretch. Better bullpen depth will be key to the Cubs' hopes of reaching the postseason, and certainly to making a run if they get there. At this point, Cuas has good a chance as anyone of emerging as that next useful arm. View full article

By Monday, we all knew the Cubs would be buyers at the MLB trade deadline. When the dust settled on Tuesday evening, it was easy to see that they were buyers on a budget. Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports That's not a comment on the team's financial inflexibility--although one of the moves they did make before the deadline does seem to reflect their need to move some money around. Rather, it's about talent, and the amount of it Jed Hoyer and his front office were willing to expend to improve the possibilities for a team that reached the end of July at exactly .500. Clearly, they settled on the idea that the roster needed and deserved an upgrade, but that making them genuine favorites in either the NL Central or the overall NL playoff bracket was impractical. Let's run through the guys they did acquire, and how they can help. Jeimer Candelario, 1B/3B We've already broken down the Candelario addition in multiple posts, but this is a good chance to discuss the surprising updates that have filtered through since the move was announced. Tuesday on 670 The Score in Chicago, David Ross said Candelario will mostly play first base. That's not what most expected, but it reflects the team's significant and burgeoning faith in Nick Madrigal as a regular third baseman. They determined, in the end, that Candelario can better help them by solving what has been a year-long problem at first base. If Candelario notches four hits in every game, as he did in his first game back with the Cubs Tuesday night, that'll certainly pay off. Seriously, though, it's a clever move. Candelario showed fine hands and footwork at first on Tuesday, and is comfortable playing the position. If you buy into Madrigal's solid play at the hot corner over the last couple months, then the team is already in position to get roughly league-average production from that position the rest of the way. The Cubs clearly do, which made their lousy non-Cody Bellinger first base options a far more pressing concern. Candelario is equally capable of filling either, so he's perfect. This choice gives the team a great deal of flexibility the rest of the way, too. Bellinger can still come back in from center field to play first, and will probably do so on a semi-regular basis again when the team feels like Seiya Suzuki is back on track. Alternatively, if they call up Pete Crow-Armstrong in September, he could force Bellinger back to first (and Candelario across to third) even with Mike Tauchman starting in right field. Jose Cuas, RHP This, too, we have covered in its own post, and there's another whole post to write about him. For now, though, suffice it to say that Cuas is the good kind of project reliever. He has a unique release point, a fun backstory, and several remaining seasons of team control, should the Cubs want him around for that long. He also has minor-league options, and will be optionable again next year. That's always valuable and important when filling out the middle relief corps. Josh Roberson, RHP In a small trade that was largely about clearing some minor-league roster space and the remainder of Adrian Sampson's $1.9-million salary, the Cubs did get back an interesting reliever. Roberson isn't on the 40-man roster and is already 27 years old. He has ugly numbers in the high minors, including some rough walk rates. However, he throws 97 miles per hour, and his slider misses bats, at least in Triple A. If the control improvements he made over his final six weeks or so in the Rays organization stick, he could be another solid reliever. The front office was not willing to go over the luxury tax threshold to improve this year's roster. They weren't willing, either, to trade any of their top prospects, at least for the talent they could buy at this deadline. Instead, they made moves to clear their decks and books a bit, and they got the best bat they could find to boost an increasingly competent lineup, using only prospects they were unlikely to retain beyond this November, anyway. It's not an all-in move, but nor did they fold. We'll all just have to see how the cards fall from here. View full article

In a big story with just over 90 minutes left before the deadline, Ken Rosenthal reports that the Mets are committing to a step back in 2024, the better to contend in 2025 and beyond. The details here are numerous and unmistakable. This has to make the odds of a Pete Alonso trade shoot through the roof. Alonso is only under team control through 2024. It's time to take this notion from the land of idle thought to the realm of very serious consideration: What should the Cubs be willing to give up to make Alonso their first baseman for the next year and a half? View full rumor

As the Cubs make their final moves before the MLB trade deadline, it's worth taking a moment to examine their playoff odds. At the same time, when it comes to driving decisions for this particular team, probabilities have given way to payoffs. Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports The Cubs still lag two teams in the NL Central standings, and would need to climb over even more in order to claim a Wild Card berth in the National League. Yet, they went out and got Jeimer Candelario yesterday, and they're poised to add further help today. Why? Because Playoff Odds are probabilities, but this team isn't playing to maximize those. They ended up in a position where the payoffs on relative remote chances of winning were worth chasing, even if the chase proves futile. Here are their reported odds at the three sites who provide daily Playoff Odds reports, as of this morning. Baseball Prospectus: 14.6 % to win the division, 26.1 % to make the postseason FanGraphs: 14.9 % to win the division, 24.5 % to make the postseason Baseball Reference: 28.1 % to win the division, 45 % to make the postseason Notably, while Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs each utilize projection systems to generate their playoff odds, Baseball Reference operates very differently. They use a strength-of-schedule-adjusted rating system based on runs and wins over a team's last 100 games, and don't lean on individual player projections at all. Obviously, there can be arguments in favor of either kind of projection, but Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs are generally regarded as more mathematically robust and scientific. If you're looking at all these numbers, then, slightly favor the more pessimistic ones. They even reflect the arrival of Candelario. Despite that, they report that it's a long shot for the Cubs to make it to October in 2023. Anyone who says the team has much better than the chance of rolling a particular number on a standard die is trying to sell you something. That doesn't really matter now, though. If the Cubs were sellers again at this deadline, Jed Hoyer's and David Ross's seats both would have heated up quickly. More importantly, though fans have come back to Wrigley Field in response to a strong start and some encouraging offseason moves, the Ricketts family knows that they can't afford much more abject losing. Once the team reeled off several consecutive wins last week, the thing was cinched. Buying at this deadline made much more sense than selling, or even than standing pat, because the Cubs (as a corporation, as a baseball franchise, and as a fan base) will gain much more in the event that they succeed in this race than they will lose in the event that they fail. Obviously, there has to be a mental restrictor plate there for Hoyer and Carter Hawkins. They need to gauge whether particular opportunities allow them to be in better position than this at this time next year, because they can't afford to go backward in a desperate attempt to cash in on this one imperfect opportunity. Still, making the attempt is important, and they will certainly not have a good chance of success if they don't finish the job they've started and bolster the pitching staff before 5 PM Central. View full article

The Cubs (along with the Brewers and Twins) are among potential landing spots for Arizona Diamondbacks reliever Andrew Chafin, according to a tweet from Jon Heyman. There's no question the Cubs are in the market for a lefty reliever, and old friend and failed starter Chafin would be like slipping into a comfortable pair of old sneakers. I think, though, that the Cubs are trying to buy a new pair instead. This feels like a fallback maneuver, should their pursuit of both Aaron Bummer and Brooks Raley come to naught. In fact, that might be the case for all three of the teams Heyman listed. What do you think? A return engagement for Chafin? View full rumor

It's usually a throwaway term. It's usually true that there are no must-win games in August. On Tuesday night at Wrigley Field, though, the Cubs play a must-win game. That's a privilege, and they have to embrace it. Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports Had the Cubs been more consistent throughout David Ross's tenure, or even within this season, things might be different. Had Marcus Stroman stopped his personal skid last night, rather than exacerbating the fan base's well-founded fears that he's becoming unreliable, things might be different. As it stands, though, the Cubs currently ride a two-game losing streak. That it comes on the back of an eight-game winning streak is cold comfort, because the Cubs dug themselves too deep a hole in May to lose three in a row (including two home games to the first-place Reds) now. The pressure of meaningful baseball in the dog days of summer is part of the fun. It's a minor burden but a major privilege. It's not a bad thing that, for the first time since 2019, a packed house at Wrigley Field will cheer on a team that truly needs to win a particular game. It's just a nervous feeling, because on that previous occasion, the Cubs got their backs and spirits broken by the eventual division champion Cardinals. The time before that series, in October 2018, they lost back-to-back must-win games to the Brewers and Rockies and saw their season end in frustration. Those were lousy enough feelings, but they came at the ends of the respective seasons, and both of those teams were depleted by injury and the vagaries of the schedule. This team just had a jolt of a trade deadline, adding multiple valuable pieces in order to gear up for a charge to the top of the table. This team has two more months of games in front of them, no matter what. It would be even more cruelly and painfully deflating to flop in this pivotal series than it was to lose those games late in 2018 and 2019. The better precedent for the danger the team faces now is 2001, when they acquired Fred McGriff to bolster an anemic lineup and try to hold onto first place, only to come unraveled and begin tumbling out of the race in August. This team can be better than that one was. That team was made of Sammy Sosa and baling wire. This team sends its All-Star ace, Justin Steele, to the mound tonight, and will offer its new-look lineup in answer to the Reds' proffer of journeyman hurler Ben Lively. The ghosts and the demons don't need to rule anything. The Cubs can and should win tonight. They should arrest this brief moment of negative momentum and reverse it, beginning the project of at least splitting (and ideally, still, winning) this series and eventually catching the Reds. Steele needs to be sharp. He met the moment last week in St. Louis, and he figures to be ready tonight. The crowd should be in full throat again, because despite the aggravations and disappointments of Monday night's loss--another enervating Stroman dud, and several missed offensive opportunities late, resulting in a one-run defeat--they were supportive and undaunted Monday night. The players in the dugout have talent and confidence. The fans have healthily elevated expectations. Now (gulp) the team just has to deliver on them. View full article

There are mystery teams in the mix for Mets starter and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander as the trade deadline nears, according to Jon Heyman. He lists the Dodgers and Astros as the non-mystery suitors, so maybe the mystery team is really just the Orioles, who have been mentioned in connection with him elsewhere. Still, it's worth a mention that the Mets paid down Max Scherzer's deal enormously in order to juice the prospect return in their recent trade with the Rangers. In fact, Steve Cohen is making a habit of that tactic, continuing to carry the salaries even of players shipped off to other teams. He's bearing the luxury tax burden even as the team is disassembled, to maximize the talent the team can acquire. If the Mets are willing to do that with Verlander's humongous 2023 salary, and to eat a chunk of his $43 million and change in 2024, would you give up one of the Cubs system's top prospects to (finally) make Verlander a Cub? It sounds crazy, but since this wouldn't be a pure rental and it would be a difference-maker in the NL Central, I'm not sure at all that it is. Photo Credit: © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports View full rumor

The Cubs' lineup has tended toward underachievement and dysfunction too often over the last two years. By acquiring Jeimer Candelario Monday night, they hope they've put an end to that prolonged period of frustration. Image courtesy of © Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports Sadly, Jeimer Candelario has rarely had a talented lineup to call his own since matriculating to the major leagues. He was only very briefly part of the championship-era Cubs, and then only as a fill-in. Once he was traded to the Tigers, he was fully marooned. Detroit didn't immediately collapse, but by the time Candelario found his role with the team, they were well into the decline phase of what was such a good run for the team, from 2011-14. When he's part of a good lineup, though, Candelario is the type of hitter who amplifies the punch and value of others in that group. He's a classic cog-in-the-machine guy. He walks at a high rate, puts the ball in play at an average-plus rate, and hits for healthy (though not gaudy) power. He's more likely to split a gap than clear the fence, but more likely to get a hit than to strike out, too. During his best seasons, he's always been one of his team's two best hitters, but as the third- or fourth-best in a given group, he can really shine. That should be where he fits in, if the Cubs are a functional offense down the stretch. Ever since the World Series-winning core began to deteriorate, the lineup's big weakness has been a dearth of true stars, but it's possible to make up for that with sufficient depth. A balanced lineup without major holes can be as good as one with a few formidable sluggers. Candelario nicely rounds out a group that fits that description, at long last--like a rotation without a Cy Young-caliber ace, but with more strength in the fourth and fifth spots than the competition has. With versatility in his offensive skill set and his defensive positions, Candelario can be especially useful to this fairly modular roster. Against most right-handed pitchers, he should bat second and play third base, with Nico Hoerner sliding down to the sixth or seventh spot in the batting order. Against lefties, he should bat third and play first base, pushing Ian Happ and Yan Gomes down out of the top five in the lineup. In each case, it's an important upgrade. Nick Madrigal is forced from the lineup against righties, and Trey Mancini moves fully into a bench role, rather than playing ineffectually against virtually all lefties. Madrigal has blossomed into a very good defensive third baseman, to the surprise of nearly everyone, so Candelario might be only a small upgrade there. He's a much bigger improvement over Patrick Wisdom, though, and it would seem to be Wisdom or third catcher Miguel Amaya whose roster spot he most directly threatens. Amaya, in particular, will suffer from the fact that Gomes is not likely to be used as often as the designated hitter, making it much less necessary to carry an extra backstop. Of course, the most popular cannon fodder (from the perspective of most Cubs fans) would be Mancini, but that seems plausible only if the Cubs find a taker for the big first baseman's contract. That's not going to happen without Chicago kicking in some prospect talent and getting very little in return, so the better bets are that Wisdom or Amaya will become jetsam in the short term. This deal comes far short of guaranteeing the Cubs a playoff berth, let alone a division title or any kind of October glory. The team still needs to (and will) make further upgrades in the bullpen before the trade deadline officially hits in about 20 hours. This was a tremendous start, though, and Candelario should make the team more fun and more consistently competitive over the final two months of this campaign. View full article

We knew the Cubs wouldn't be done when they acquired Jeimer Candelario earlier tonight. Now, they've made what is likely to be the first of multiple moves to bolster and deepen their bullpen. When he's right--and especially when he has control of all that funk and that raw stuff--Cuas can be nasty. He's as much a project as an immediate-impact addition, but this is a nimble bit of 40-man roster management. On the heels of the announcement earlier Monday that Pete Crow-Armstrong is headed to Iowa to join the Triple-A roster, this deal moves Velazquez out of the I-Cubs' crowded outfield picture, keeps the 40-man picture balanced, and lets the Cubs' pitching development infrastructure dig in with a pitcher who gives them plenty with which to work. View full article

The Cubs front office has thrown down the gauntlet. They're not only holding onto Cody Bellinger, but acquiring the best impending free-agent hitter on the trade market, instead. As I wrote in the aforementioned piece, Candelario is a galvanizing addition to a lineup that already led baseball in runs scored during July. His arrival only exacerbates the uncertainty around Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom, but they become much less important figures, which is the point of a trade like this at this stage of a pennant race. Candelario can credibly bat in the top half of the batting order against both lefties and righties. He adds power that Madrigal couldn't and is an on-base threat Wisdom can't be. He's a more experienced defender than either, and though defensive metrics have had a mercurial relationship with him, the eye test says he's smoother and lower-effort there than either of the incumbents. He's also enjoying one of his good years, by those inconstant numbers. What a difference a year makes, for everyone involved in this deal. Candelario was non-tendered by the Tigers this past winter, after a brutal season in which he batted .217/.272/.361. This year, however, he's batting .258/.342/.481. On the flip side, both Made and Herz had some helium at this time last year, but neither has distinguished themselves in their tests in 2023. Each still has upside--Made as a glove-first shortstop, Herz as a stuff-over-command fourth starter or a very interesting reliever--but they're no longer the somewhat shiny objects they were a year ago. It's funny, how nicely Candelario has grown into exactly the player he projected to be when many of us became aware of him as a Cubs farmhand over a decade ago. He draws walks, he hits more doubles than home runs, and he acquits himself in the field. He's a solidly above-average (though rarely star-caliber) third baseman, with the same shape of production one would have guessed he would provide by watching him in Tennessee or Iowa in 2016. Now, the Cubs will be the ones reaping the rewards of that successful development. View full article

Yeah I'm having trouble reading that market. There are a lot of suitors, but they all seem less than desperate. Maybe we're guessing at how good a poker player Mike Rizzo is.

Oh, it’s *definitely* not the case that I expect anyone to think one is a star, least of all a particular one. I think there’s a good chance one of them is a helpful regular, and I think the Cubs need to figure out which one and act decisively, and I think that’s hard because they’re out of time and their information is deeply imperfect. So. 🤷🏼‍♂️.

After going 11-5 in the decisive space between the All-Star break and July 31, the Cubs no longer have a tough decision in whether to buy or sell. Now, they face a more daunting, complicated one, with the same deadline on it. Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports A year and a half ago, it felt very much as though the Cubs might need to choose between Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal. One would be their second baseman of the future, but the other would struggle to find any long-term home, and might need to be jettisoned in order to build a functional roster. Not since the 1990s have teams' pitching usage choices allowed for a pure backup second baseman, after all. Then, the 2022 season happened. Madrigal endured frustration and injury, and although he finished strong, he made no compelling case for himself as a starting regular in the majors. Yet, Hoerner left the door open, by proving that he had the capacity to acquit himself at shortstop, in addition to hitting enough to bat near the top of the order on a credible team. That's why Madrigal was able to get a meaningful September audition, in which he looked good, and in turn, that's why he stuck with the Cubs even after the team added Dansby Swanson over the winter. Because Hoerner could be the backup shortstop from his position at second, Madrigal could be a bench player even while largely limited to second base. Obviously, much has changed even since then. Madrigal has, when healthy, had a much better 2023, especially over the last two months. That's the span during which, because of Patrick Wisdom's injuries and inconsistency, Madrigal has become the team's apparent top choice to play third base. It wouldn't have occurred to anyone to put the diminutive Madrigal at third base if exigency hadn't demanded it, but (after a few rocky showings at the start) he's demonstrated above-average ability at that spot. He's also batting .323/.397/.462 since he took over this role on June 9, although that sample is fewer than 80 plate appearances, because he missed most of a month with a hamstring strain. The rub lies in the fact that Madrigal seems (and certainly believes, based on his comments earlier this year during a sojourn in Iowa) to need to be in the lineup almost daily in order to stay in the rhythm necessary to have success with his approach and skill set--to wit, his lack of any power of which to speak. A player who can only play well if they play very often puts more pressure on themselves and the team, because they have to be allotted a daily spot in a way that modern rosters usually do only for stars. Worse, Madrigal is not durable, so to build the best version of this team around him at third base requires having a second, competent third baseman on hand who can be more successful in limited playing time. Here we reach the new dilemma facing the organization. The Cubs no longer need to choose between Madrigal and Hoerner; that would now be a cruelly easy choice. Instead, they need to choose between Madrigal and Christopher Morel. It's not a direct position battle, per se, because the Cubs have proven (and Morel has affirmed, with his play when called upon in semi-emergencies) that Morel is not a third baseman in their eyes. Still, his recent production has forced them to put him in the lineup nearly every day. Often, he's the designated hitter. At this point, because Trey Mancini's contract is a hurdle in dealing with first base or in adding high-salary players at this deadline, third base and DH are the two places where the team can plausibly upgrade the lineup. That means moving on from either Morel (despite his raw production, he's been so up-and-down, and his lack of a position hurts the team's modularity and flexibility) or Madrigal (whose success, on both sides of the ledger, seems so fragile, and who could get hurt again at any moment). They could trade for some slightly better version of Wisdom and banish the current iteration, but if both Morel and Madrigal have to play every day, what would that really achieve? For the balance of this season, it might work to have Morel and Madrigal continue in their roles. However, this deadline is an opportunity to answer a couple of medium-term questions at low cost, or even at a profit, without hurting the 2023 club's chances. To miss that window would be a failure. Thus, the front office has to consider trading one of the two, as part of a maneuver in which they acquire some veteran bat and a controllable pitcher to bolster the staff. Choosing between these two is like choosing between apples and garlic. They're so different, and they offer such different sets of possible rewards and challenges, that it feels strange to set them in rivalry with one another. If the Cubs are going to make a decisive, organization-building, winning move at this deadline, though, it will probably have to involve knowing which of these two is part of their long-term plans. View full article

On Sunday, the Cubs finally lost a game, but they'd already spent the previous week securing their position as buyers at this trade deadline. Two players were the subjects of Cubs-specific rumors that day. Are they the right fits? In an appearance on Marquee Network, 670 The Score baseball reporter Bruce Levine further turned up the heat of those rumors, naming the same two players in an independent way. Both guys could have the same source, of course, but it's impossible to dismiss either mention, in light of the other. It's surprising that we've reached this point with Bednar rumors, because a deal that satisfies the Pirates with the notion of sending an elite reliever to a division rival (while not turning the stomachs of the Cubs front office or their fans) seems so difficult to cobble together. He's a dominant arm. He's struck out over 32 percent of the batters he's faced since the start of 2021, without the complicating walk problems that usually come with stuff that overwhelming. His four-seamer, curveball, and splitter form an almost Platonic ideal of the closer's repertoire, and he commands all three offerings well. Presumably, the Pirates wouldn't even be open to moving him, but for the fact that he will reach arbitration eligibility this winter and start making significant money. Even given that willingness to listen, though, you have to figure Pittsburgh would set a prohibitive price on him when a team like the Cubs calls. The Bucs have to be hoping that they'll be contenders again within the term of Bednar's team control, and they don't want to run into Bednar in the ninth inning of some division-deciding September showdown in 2025. That hypothetical concern might be surmountable, but because it exists, the Pirates would want more for Bednar than the Cubs seem likely to pay. After all, flipping the idea on its head, the Cubs wouldn't want to have Kevin Alcantara hit a game-winning home run against them in two years, be it off Bednar or (because relievers are unreliable and injuries happen and who knows?) someone worse to whom they'd had to turn. Let's set all that irrationality aside a moment, though. When we do so, we can say: Bednar would be a perfect, even sensational addition to this roster. The Cubs need better bullpen depth, and adding to the top of the hierarchy (moving even the impressive Adbert Alzolay down a rung) is more effective and tempting than plugging someone new into the third or fourth place in line. The window of team control is a perfect match for the Cubs' hoped-for rise to sustainable excellence, and it's the perfect time for a closer (rewarded, if anything, too much by the arbitration system) to move from a small-market team to one of the biggest-market ones in baseball. Imagine, then, that the Cubs pay some hefty prospect price for Bednar. Now, further imagine that they pony up the (lesser) price for Candelario, completing a lineup that already looks increasingly viable. Assuming (as one should, if they really made this twinned move) that the team doesn't subtract meaningfully from their big-league roster in the process, adding those two to the current roster would make the Cubs not only credible co-favorites in the NL Central, but viable threats to the Dodgers and to Atlanta if they advance in October. For various reasons, it's unlikely that we see either player don a Cubs uniform this week. There are many other suitors for Candelario, and we've already amply explored the externalities that might prevent a Bednar deal. Still, given the fits, the depth of the Cubs' farm system, and these two reports from people who rarely raise true red herrings, this is the scenario that intrigues me most as the deadline rushes toward us. For my money, there's no realistic haul the team could manage that would be more exciting or helpful. View full article