Why so down on Pierre?

[Bruno7481]

Just wondering. Is he the greatest CF in the league? No. Does he have a weak arm? Yes.

 

But, here is his seasonal averages since coming into the league:

 

.305 Avg .355 OBP 199 hits 51 SB 100 Runs.

 

That wouldn't help this ballclub? Those numbers were a bit lower this past season, but I expect them to go back up. Hendry is flamed for trying to trade Walker because of his OBP abilities (rightfully so) but Pierre's # are better than Walker's in that area. Why no love for Juan?

 

Sure, Pierre isn't an OPS guy, lifetime .739. As comparison, Walker's is .789.

 

I think Pierre would be a good addition to the top of the lineup.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

i don't agree with the stats you use to evaluate Pierre (except OBP).

[Bruno7481]

i don't agree with the stats you use to evaluate Pierre (except OBP).

 

Ok, what do you use to evaluate him? Just curious.

 

Basically my point is he would be the best leadoff man the Cubs have had in years. Unless you really count the 40 games or so Lofton played for the Cubs in 2003.

 

How can you not agree with hits? He's averaged 200 hits a year.

[JeffH]

Haven't you heard? Hits don't matter. Only walks. :roll:

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

OBP, SLG, SB%, K/BB, VORP

[Andy]

Haven't you heard? Hits don't matter. Only walks. :roll:

Stop clogging the bases, man. That's why we need Neifi to clear off the bases with his GIDP's.

[rawaction]

Those numbers were a bit lower, but what happens if they continue that low? He's so dependent on batting average that if he has a down year in BA, he has nearly 0 value. If he hits .276 again next year, he will be a bad idea. He went down 50 points in batting average from 04-05, his OBP went down 50 points. If the grass at Wrigley eat up his slap hits, if playing in a smaller park causes fewer balls to drop, he's a bad baseball player.

[Bruno7481]

OBP, SLG, SB%, K/BB, VORP

 

Pierre is a life time 267/363 in SB for 74%.

 

I could care less what a leadoff man's SLG is. I'd value the 200 hits/yr and OBP a lot more than his .SLG.

 

Pierre's K/BB ratio is 211/226. While thats not HOF worthy, his speed and his ability to make contact really helps him. Anytime he makes contact on the ground he can be a threat.

 

Pierre would be a tremendous improvemtn over anything the Cubs have had at the top of the order recently.

[Bruno7481]

Those numbers were a bit lower, but what happens if they continue that low? He's so dependent on batting average that if he has a down year in BA, he has nearly 0 value. If he hits .276 again next year, he will be a bad idea. He went down 50 points in batting average from 04-05, his OBP went down 50 points. If the grass at Wrigley eat up his slap hits, if playing in a smaller park causes fewer balls to drop, he's a bad baseball player.

 

If my aunt had balls she's be my uncle too. :wink:

 

I just think he'd help, I could be completely off though. This is a big if, but if the Cubs could put Pierre and Furcal back-to-back this offense could really be good.

 

Btw Raw, IU sounded pretty good tonight in their exhibition final. Sucks that D.J. is out but I think they will be ok.

[Joe_Cub]

whatever is wrong with Corey Patterson isn't going to get any better in chicago. I'd take a flyer on Juan Pierre over him next year.

 

I'm not sold on Pie yet though. He's exciting but really raw and until the cubs can prove they can find and develop a minor leaguer who isn't a pitcher, I won't believe it. So I don't worry about "saving a space for him." If he's good enough, he'll earn it without it being reserved.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

OBP, SLG, SB%, K/BB, VORP

 

Pierre is a life time 267/363 in SB for 74%.

 

I could care less what a leadoff man's SLG is. I'd value the 200 hits/yr and OBP a lot more than his .SLG.

 

Pierre's K/BB ratio is 211/226. While thats not HOF worthy, his speed and his ability to make contact really helps him. Anytime he makes contact on the ground he can be a threat.

 

Pierre would be a tremendous improvemtn over anything the Cubs have had at the top of the order recently.

 

average OBP at the top of the order would be an improvement over '05. pierre is an improvement, but that isn't saying much.

 

74% is pathetic considering his speed. speed does not make a base stealer. he is slightly above the break even point for making outs/scoring runs by taking that extra bag.

 

his K/BB ratio might be ok, but you'd think he could get on base a little more often. slap hitters suck.

 

he's not really that bad, but at the price we're going to pay for him, there are better options (Bradley).

Edited November 11, 2005 by Meat&PotatoesMan

[Sabermetrician]

I'm not down on Pierre, I'm down on Pierre at $8 million and the expense of a decent prospect in comparison to Bradley at $4 million and a no-name prospect.

 

There's no doubt about it, Pierre would help us. Post all-star break, he had a .340 OBP, and it's a pretty good accomplishment for his season OBP to be .326 considering the awful May/June he had. Pierre/Furcal would be one of the best 1-2 combinations in the game, and they'd get on in front of Lee/Ramirez, make the pitchers think about them while they're on base which would case the pitchers to make more mistakes.

 

But at $8 million, there are better options out there. Especially since it seems Hendry is so set on Pierre that he'd rather have him than Giles for just a couple million more, or the better player (Bradley) for half of Pierre's price for a lesser prospect.

 

I won't complain if we get Pierre, but I don't think he should be the #1 choice.

[Outshined_One]

I'd be fine with Pierre if the Cubs don't overpay for him. He has some value as a leadoff man and a potential speed guy. He's still relatively young. I believe next year is his contract year (could be mistaken on this one) and typically guys tend to put a little bit of extra effort into things in those scenarios.

 

He's not some one I'd be thrilled with, but I'd be okay with the Cubs getting him using a modest package.

[Bruno7481]

I'm not down on Pierre, I'm down on Pierre at $8 million and the expense of a decent prospect in comparison to Bradley at $4 million and a no-name prospect.

 

There's no doubt about it, Pierre would help us. Post all-star break, he had a .340 OBP, and it's a pretty good accomplishment for his season OBP to be .326 considering the awful May/June he had. Pierre/Furcal would be one of the best 1-2 combinations in the game, and they'd get on in front of Lee/Ramirez, make the pitchers think about them while they're on base which would case the pitchers to make more mistakes.

 

But at $8 million, there are better options out there. Especially since it seems Hendry is so set on Pierre that he'd rather have him than Giles for just a couple million more, or the better player (Bradley) for half of Pierre's price for a lesser prospect.

 

I won't complain if we get Pierre, but I don't think he should be the #1 choice.

 

Is it pretty much confirmed that he's get 8 million per/year? If they do trade for him i'm sure Hendry would try and lock him up like he did with Lee right after the Cubs traded for him.

[fromthestretch]

Walker

Career .348 OBP

2006 Salary = $2.5 million

Already a Cub

 

Pierre

Career .355 OBP

2006 Salary > $4 million

Cubs would have to trade talent to get him

 

Keep Walker and bat him leadoff. If you get furcal, bat Walker second.

[rawaction]

 

average OBP at the top of the order would be an improvement over '05.

 

Todd Walker would provide at least average OBP. :x

 

Don't get me wrong, I'd gladly welcome Pierre for Patterson and a mediocre pitching prospect. But trading for Pierre can mean the difference between Giles and Encarnacion in RF. I'd rather have Giles and Patterson/Hairston/Lofton/Me/ than Pierre and Encarnacion.

[JeffH]

Anyone who falls for the Rotoworld concoction that Pierre is "probably" going to get $7-$8 next season is stunningly naive.

[UK1679666180]

Pierre isn't a bad choice considering what they have, but he certainly isn't the best choice.

 

I'd rather see Bradley or the name I keep mentioning (Michaels) over Pierre.

[Joe_Cub]

But at $8 million, there are better options out there. Especially since it seems Hendry is so set on Pierre that he'd rather have him than Giles for just a couple million more, or the better player (Bradley) for half of Pierre's price for a lesser prospect.

 

I remember that people were so mad that Hendry didn't get Ivan Rodriguez. Would hve been nice last year not so much this year.

 

I wanted him to get Beltran last year and yeah Beltran is way overpaid. Might have been nice if the Cubs tried to negotiate with him. Maybe I'll be wrong about that.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Anyone who falls for the Rotoworld concoction that Pierre is "probably" going to get $7-$8 next season is stunningly naive.

 

he's going to be way above $2.5M. :wink:

[Bruno7481]

Pierre isn't a bad choice considering what they have, but he certainly isn't the best choice.

 

I'd rather see Bradley or the name I keep mentioning (Michaels) over Pierre.

 

I agree with that.

 

Just don't think the criticism on Pierre has been justified here. He's a pretty good player that could really help this team.

[Outshined_One]

Is it pretty much confirmed that he's get 8 million per/year? If they do trade for him i'm sure Hendry would try and lock him up like he did with Lee right after the Cubs traded for him.

 

If things remain equal and trading for Pierre is the only trade Hendry pulls this offseason, I think Hendry won't extend Pierre. Felix Pie does need another year of seasoning down in the minors, but all signs currently indicate that he has tremendous potential. Granted, he could regress or get injured (again) or something along those lines, but at the rate of his current development, I think he would be a tremendous replacement for Pierre when he's ready.

 

Then again, if the Cubs end up trading Pie somewhere, extending Pierre might not be a bad idea...

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

In Pierre's defense, he is probably due for an upswing, as his BABIP was way below normal for him. Buying low might be ok. I don't want to give up Pie for him though (i don't see Pie in cubbie blue, but as a trade chip for a better player than Pierre).

[Sarcastic]

Those numbers were a bit lower, but what happens if they continue that low? He's so dependent on batting average that if he has a down year in BA, he has nearly 0 value. If he hits .276 again next year, he will be a bad idea. He went down 50 points in batting average from 04-05, his OBP went down 50 points. If the grass at Wrigley eat up his slap hits, if playing in a smaller park causes fewer balls to drop, he's a bad baseball player.

 

He could have another bad year in 2006. Or, 2005 could have just been an off year for him. Any player you get would be a risk. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd say Pierre has been reasonably consistent. In six seasons, he has hit under .300 twice, and only last season was he very far under that mark. We don't know for sure what he will do, but I think it is reasonable to say that he is likely to perform better in 2006. What am I missing?

 

Whether or not he is a good acquisition would depend on the cost, in my opinion. If we don't have to give up much more than Patterson, I don't see how it would be a bad trade.

[nilodnayr]

Player A

2004 Hit .326 .374 .407 781

 

2005 Hit .276 .326 .354 680

 

Player B

2004 Hit .303 .378 .397 775

 

2005 Hit .261 .336 .368 704

 

Player A has a 73% career steal success rate

 

Player B has a 68% career steal success rate

 

Player A will make 7-8M in 2006 in his last year of arbitration

 

Player B will make 3M in 2006 in his last year of arbitration

 

Player A will cost you some good talent to acquire

 

Player B is already on your roster