Trade Cedeno...

[cubbyvirus00]

Although his stats in the minors were good, I say we sign Furcal, and trade Cedeno for an outfielder.

 

Furcal has already proven himself in the big leagues, has already been in the playoffs, and is coming from one of the leagues best franchises. He brings experience, and talent to the table.

 

While Cedeno looks good on paper, its my opinion that he doesen't seem to be a groundbreaking kind of player, and if we're not going to give him the starting job, its best to trade him now while his value is at its highest.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

And Furcal is a groundbreaking player?

[Neuby]

And Furcal is a groundbreaking player?

Not sure what the def of a groundbreaking player is but Furcal is 27 , switch hitter, a 15 homer , 40 steal guy, with some of the best range at short in the majors to go with a cannon arm at short. I'm not sure if Cedeno's ceiling is anywhere near that high.

[Chris]

Unfortunately we blew an opportunity to get him playing time before he got hurt.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

And Furcal is a groundbreaking player?

Not sure what the def of a groundbreaking player is but Furcal is 27 , switch hitter, a 15 homer , 40 steal guy, with some of the best range at short in the majors to go with a cannon arm at short. I'm not sure if Cedeno's ceiling is anywhere near that high.

 

True, this depends on a definition of a "groundbreaking player" and I don't think either is (or will be) one according to my definition.

[YearofDaCubs]

I personally think Cedeno can be an everyday starter. He seems to have a good eye, and some pop.

[XZero771679666304]

And Furcal is a groundbreaking player?

Not sure what the def of a groundbreaking player is but Furcal is 27 , switch hitter, a 15 homer , 40 steal guy, with some of the best range at short in the majors to go with a cannon arm at short. I'm not sure if Cedeno's ceiling is anywhere near that high.

 

True, this depends on a definition of a "groundbreaking player" and I don't think either is (or will be) one according to my definition.

 

I agree, but I think that Furcal is already way above Cedeno's ceiling. Personally, I'd like to see a Furcal/Cedeno middle infield. (though I'd rather see a Furcal/Castillo middle IF)

[Warpticon]

You know, Cedeno's 21 and hit 370-something in AAA. And even with Furcal, somebody's got to back up SS and 2B (and possibly 3B), and it may as well be Ronnie. if he's really that limited in ceiling, then he's probably more valuable to us in that capacity than as trade bait.

[SouthSideRyan]

I don't think other teams view Cedeno as well as we do. The return on him would not be worth it.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

You know, Cedeno's 21 and hit 370-something in AAA. And even with Furcal, somebody's got to back up SS and 2B (and possibly 3B), and it may as well be Ronnie. if he's really that limited in ceiling, then he's probably more valuable to us in that capacity than as trade bait.

 

Excellent point.

 

Even if the Cubs sign Furcal to a 3 or 4 year deal, Walker at 2B is only signed for one more year. Cedeno is young enough to use as a sub for a year and then take over for Walker in 2007.

 

On the other hand, if the Cubs signed Furcal and then made a deal for Castillo I could see trading Cedeno. As it is right now, I'd have to be getting something of very high value to trade Cedeno. He isn't "untouchable", but he isn't someone I'd shop either.

[CubsWin]

And Furcal is a groundbreaking player?

Not sure what the def of a groundbreaking player is but Furcal is 27 , switch hitter, a 15 homer , 40 steal guy, with some of the best range at short in the majors to go with a cannon arm at short. I'm not sure if Cedeno's ceiling is anywhere near that high.

I'm not too concerned whether he will be like Furcal or not. I am concerned about whether he can be good. Defensively, he has proven that he is. Offensively, he seems to have some pop. When you can put up a .921 OPS through 245 at bats at AAA as a 22-year-old, you've got a shot at being good. Cedeno got the rep of being all glove no bat because he was consistently two years too young for his league and his numbers suffered due to being pushed through the minors, but his bat is catching up with him now. Remember, when in was in rookie ball, his numbers were great. They were so good that he was brought up to Lansing later that same season.

 

Having someone like Cedeno on the cheap for the next several seasons could really help the Cubs acquire some heavy hitters or keep the all-stars they already have for an extended run at the World Series year after year.

 

Don't trade Cedeno.

[CubsWin]

You know, Cedeno's 21 and hit 370-something in AAA. And even with Furcal, somebody's got to back up SS and 2B (and possibly 3B), and it may as well be Ronnie. if he's really that limited in ceiling, then he's probably more valuable to us in that capacity than as trade bait.

Not that it changes your point much, but Ronnie is 22 and has been all season.

 

And I agree that at his stage of development, having him back up both SS and 2B makes a lot of sense. I would prefer that Nomar be resigned instead of getting Furcal just because Cedeno can play an excellent defensive SS and put up a .921 OPS at AAA last season meaning he's got a pretty good bat as well. Inexpensive SS who can defend and hit are harder to find than the same type of player at 2B. And if Furcal is signed, Cedeno is blocked and the money that was spent on Furcal can't be allocated elsewhere.

 

I think Nomar will put up better numbers than Furcal this coming season, he will be cheaper and he will be signed to a one-year deal so the Cubs will have the ability to replace him with Cedeno in '07. They will then have the Furcal money available to spend elsewhere. You combine that with the 9 mill that Maddux will be freeing up in '07 and the Cubs are able to make another splash in the '06 off season.

 

But only if Cedeno is at SS and not Furcal.

[ConstableRabbit]

You know, Cedeno's 21 and hit 370-something in AAA. And even with Furcal, somebody's got to back up SS and 2B (and possibly 3B), and it may as well be Ronnie. if he's really that limited in ceiling, then he's probably more valuable to us in that capacity than as trade bait.

 

Excellent point.

 

Even if the Cubs sign Furcal to a 3 or 4 year deal, Walker at 2B is only signed for one more year. Cedeno is young enough to use as a sub for a year and then take over for Walker in 2007.

 

On the other hand, if the Cubs signed Furcal and then made a deal for Castillo I could see trading Cedeno. As it is right now, I'd have to be getting something of very high value to trade Cedeno. He isn't "untouchable", but he isn't someone I'd shop either.

 

I agree.

 

There has definately been discussion about using Ronnie as a Freel-type "super sub". I don't see him being successful as an everyday starter, but theres no question that he could be great as a versitle sub.

[CubsWin]

You know, Cedeno's 21 and hit 370-something in AAA. And even with Furcal, somebody's got to back up SS and 2B (and possibly 3B), and it may as well be Ronnie. if he's really that limited in ceiling, then he's probably more valuable to us in that capacity than as trade bait.

 

Excellent point.

 

Even if the Cubs sign Furcal to a 3 or 4 year deal, Walker at 2B is only signed for one more year. Cedeno is young enough to use as a sub for a year and then take over for Walker in 2007.

 

On the other hand, if the Cubs signed Furcal and then made a deal for Castillo I could see trading Cedeno. As it is right now, I'd have to be getting something of very high value to trade Cedeno. He isn't "untouchable", but he isn't someone I'd shop either.

 

I agree.

 

There has definately been discussion about using Ronnie as a Freel-type "super sub". I don't see him being successful as an everyday starter, but theres no question that he could be great as a versitle sub.

Just curious. What leads you to beleive that he won't be a good everyday player?

[Larry Horse]

Unfortunately we blew an opportunity to get him playing time before he got hurt.

 

Agreed

 

It would have been nice to see Cedeno start for maybe a month last year to get a look at him, but I guess the Cubs felt otherwise......

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

You want to pay Furcal 8-10M per season for a few steals (his SB percentage isn't that spectacular...slightly above break even point), barely above average OBP, and a drinking problem?

 

I'll take Senor Cedeno as my starting SS if I can't have Nomar. Forget Mr. Overrated (Furcal). We'd be better off batting Walker leadoff. Why throw away 8-10 million dollars that we can use on the OF, bullpen, and another starting pitcher? Because he is a proven leadoff hitter? Sorry, but Atlanta was stupid to have him lead off. Furcal's OBP isn't anything fantastic and Walker will put up better numbers for millions less. We should be putting high OBP 1 and 2, not speed.

[CUBZ99]

You want to pay Furcal 8-10M per season for a few steals (his SB percentage isn't that spectacular...slightly above break even point), barely above average OBP, and a drinking problem?

 

I'll take Senor Cedeno as my starting SS if I can't have Nomar. Forget Mr. Overrated (Furcal). We'd be better off batting Walker leadoff. Why throw away 8-10 million dollars that we can use on the OF, bullpen, and another starting pitcher? Because he is a proven leadoff hitter? Sorry, but Atlanta was stupid to have him lead off. Furcal's OBP isn't anything fantastic and Walker will put up better numbers for millions less. We should be putting high OBP 1 and 2, not speed.

 

Exactly how is putting on of your top OBP guys leading off, being stupid? Also how do you figure a guy with a .348 OBP is overrated as a leadoff hitter. And -- you consider 46SB's a few more than Cedeno will have, how?

 

Furcal is one of the top five NL leadoff hitter consistently over the last three years, and plays a difficult position with exceptional skill. I realize that Cedeno may be a good/decent starting SS someday, but to say that Furcal is worthless or overrated is just plain uninformed.

 

Judging by the Cub's positional player moves i.e. Bobby Hill, Choi, Brendan Harris, etc., they do seem to have a handle on which players they believe will succeed and which ones they should salvage in a trade.

[Backtobanks]

I've stated in quite a few posts that I think Cedeno will match most of Furcal's numbers within 2 years. This is a chance for the Cubs to actually develop and play a position player from their arm system. I don't understand all the excitement about Furcal. He is an adequate leadoff man with good speed and good defense, but not worth $9-$10 million per year. Nomar or Cedeno will be fine at SS assuming the Cubs can find a leadoff hitter. If those options don't work, trade for Lugo at half the price and use the money for a difference-maker like Giles.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

You want to pay Furcal 8-10M per season for a few steals (his SB percentage isn't that spectacular...slightly above break even point), barely above average OBP, and a drinking problem?

 

I'll take Senor Cedeno as my starting SS if I can't have Nomar. Forget Mr. Overrated (Furcal). We'd be better off batting Walker leadoff. Why throw away 8-10 million dollars that we can use on the OF, bullpen, and another starting pitcher? Because he is a proven leadoff hitter? Sorry, but Atlanta was stupid to have him lead off. Furcal's OBP isn't anything fantastic and Walker will put up better numbers for millions less. We should be putting high OBP 1 and 2, not speed.

 

Exactly how is putting on of your top OBP guys leading off, being stupid? Also how do you figure a guy with a .348 OBP is overrated as a leadoff hitter. And -- you consider 46SB's a few more than Cedeno will have, how?

 

Furcal is one of the top five NL leadoff hitter consistently over the last three years, and plays a difficult position with exceptional skill. I realize that Cedeno may be a good/decent starting SS someday, but to say that Furcal is worthless or overrated is just plain uninformed.

 

Judging by the Cub's positional player moves i.e. Bobby Hill, Choi, Brendan Harris, etc., they do seem to have a handle on which players they believe will succeed and which ones they should salvage in a trade.

 

Furcal has a 3/4 SB/CS ratio. That's slightly above break even. you can generate the same number of runs by having someone steal on easy counts 4-5 times a year. That's the value of his stolen bases...not much at all. That's why I call him overrated.

 

As far as defense goes, he was Mr. Error in '02 and '03. you're assuming his defense this year (which was way above career norms for him) is going to continue. It's not. This year was an aberration.

 

If you want to compare him to a known quantity on defense, look no further than our own Neifi Perez, who has a better ZR, FPCT, RF, and less errors per start at SS.

 

You are overrating his defense.

 

No, .348 OBP isn't bad, but isn't spectacular either. It's definitely nothing to throw 8-10 million at when we have the same player OBP-wise in Todd Walker (actually walker is a few points better) for 2.5 million.

 

No, saying Furcal is overrated is not uninformed. I didn't say he sucked. I said people's opinions of him were wrong.

[CUBZ99]

You want to pay Furcal 8-10M per season for a few steals (his SB percentage isn't that spectacular...slightly above break even point), barely above average OBP, and a drinking problem?

 

I'll take Senor Cedeno as my starting SS if I can't have Nomar. Forget Mr. Overrated (Furcal). We'd be better off batting Walker leadoff. Why throw away 8-10 million dollars that we can use on the OF, bullpen, and another starting pitcher? Because he is a proven leadoff hitter? Sorry, but Atlanta was stupid to have him lead off. Furcal's OBP isn't anything fantastic and Walker will put up better numbers for millions less. We should be putting high OBP 1 and 2, not speed.

 

Exactly how is putting on of your top OBP guys leading off, being stupid? Also how do you figure a guy with a .348 OBP is overrated as a leadoff hitter. And -- you consider 46SB's a few more than Cedeno will have, how?

 

Furcal is one of the top five NL leadoff hitter consistently over the last three years, and plays a difficult position with exceptional skill. I realize that Cedeno may be a good/decent starting SS someday, but to say that Furcal is worthless or overrated is just plain uninformed.

 

Judging by the Cub's positional player moves i.e. Bobby Hill, Choi, Brendan Harris, etc., they do seem to have a handle on which players they believe will succeed and which ones they should salvage in a trade.

 

Furcal has a 3/4 SB/CS ratio. That's slightly above break even. you can generate the same number of runs by having someone steal on easy counts 4-5 times a year. That's the value of his stolen bases...not much at all. That's why I call him overrated.

 

As far as defense goes, he was Mr. Error in '02 and '03. you're assuming his defense this year (which was way above career norms for him) is going to continue. It's not. This year was an aberration.

 

If you want to compare him to a known quantity on defense, look no further than our own Neifi Perez, who has a better ZR, FPCT, RF, and less errors per start at SS.

 

You are overrating his defense.

 

No, .348 OBP isn't bad, but isn't spectacular either. It's definitely nothing to throw 8-10 million at when we have the same player OBP-wise in Todd Walker (actually walker is a few points better) for 2.5 million.

 

No, saying Furcal is overrated is not uninformed. I didn't say he sucked. I said people's opinions of him were wrong.

 

The problem I have with your argument is that you have to stretch the statistics to make your point. For instance your argument on SB,

 

You claim:

 

Furcal has a 3/4 SB/CS ratio. That's slightly above break even. you can generate the same number of runs by having someone steal on easy counts 4-5 times a year

.

 

Over the last 3 years Furcal has attempted 118 SBs and got caught 18 Times!!! That is an 85% success ratio, which is alot different than what you claim.

 

we have the same player OBP-wise in Todd Walker (actually walker is a few points better) for 2.5 million.

 

Nobody is arguing that Walker shouldn't be playing in this thread and last time I checked Walker played 2b and Furcal played SS, don't see a conflict there. What is wrong with having two guys that get on base at a .350 clip batting 1st and 2nd? With Lee and Ramirez following those 2, it would make for a pretty decent 1 - 4.

 

If you want to compare him to a known quantity on defense, look no further than our own Neifi Perez, who has a better ZR, FPCT, RF, and less errors per start at SS.

 

I hope you aren't insinuating that Neifi is a bad defensive SS?

 

Problem with relying solely on statistics is that you have no clue under what situations those errors were made. Where they made after he got to a ball that most SS wouldn't have gotten to? How many plays did he make that other SS wouldn't have made? Will he benefit with having DLee at 1b?

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

You want to pay Furcal 8-10M per season for a few steals (his SB percentage isn't that spectacular...slightly above break even point), barely above average OBP, and a drinking problem?

 

I'll take Senor Cedeno as my starting SS if I can't have Nomar. Forget Mr. Overrated (Furcal). We'd be better off batting Walker leadoff. Why throw away 8-10 million dollars that we can use on the OF, bullpen, and another starting pitcher? Because he is a proven leadoff hitter? Sorry, but Atlanta was stupid to have him lead off. Furcal's OBP isn't anything fantastic and Walker will put up better numbers for millions less. We should be putting high OBP 1 and 2, not speed.

 

Exactly how is putting on of your top OBP guys leading off, being stupid? Also how do you figure a guy with a .348 OBP is overrated as a leadoff hitter. And -- you consider 46SB's a few more than Cedeno will have, how?

 

Furcal is one of the top five NL leadoff hitter consistently over the last three years, and plays a difficult position with exceptional skill. I realize that Cedeno may be a good/decent starting SS someday, but to say that Furcal is worthless or overrated is just plain uninformed.

 

Judging by the Cub's positional player moves i.e. Bobby Hill, Choi, Brendan Harris, etc., they do seem to have a handle on which players they believe will succeed and which ones they should salvage in a trade.

 

Furcal has a 3/4 SB/CS ratio. That's slightly above break even. you can generate the same number of runs by having someone steal on easy counts 4-5 times a year. That's the value of his stolen bases...not much at all. That's why I call him overrated.

 

As far as defense goes, he was Mr. Error in '02 and '03. you're assuming his defense this year (which was way above career norms for him) is going to continue. It's not. This year was an aberration.

 

If you want to compare him to a known quantity on defense, look no further than our own Neifi Perez, who has a better ZR, FPCT, RF, and less errors per start at SS.

 

You are overrating his defense.

 

No, .348 OBP isn't bad, but isn't spectacular either. It's definitely nothing to throw 8-10 million at when we have the same player OBP-wise in Todd Walker (actually walker is a few points better) for 2.5 million.

 

No, saying Furcal is overrated is not uninformed. I didn't say he sucked. I said people's opinions of him were wrong.

 

The problem I have with your argument is that you have to stretch the statistics to make your point. For instance your argument on SB,

 

You claim:

 

Furcal has a 3/4 SB/CS ratio. That's slightly above break even. you can generate the same number of runs by having someone steal on easy counts 4-5 times a year

.

 

Over the last 3 years Furcal has attempted 118 SBs and got caught 18 Times!!! That is an 85% success ratio, which is alot different than what you claim.

 

we have the same player OBP-wise in Todd Walker (actually walker is a few points better) for 2.5 million.

 

Nobody is arguing that Walker shouldn't be playing in this thread and last time I checked Walker played 2b and Furcal played SS, don't see a conflict there. What is wrong with having two guys that get on base at a .350 clip batting 1st and 2nd? With Lee and Ramirez following those 2, it would make for a pretty decent 1 - 4.

 

If you want to compare him to a known quantity on defense, look no further than our own Neifi Perez, who has a better ZR, FPCT, RF, and less errors per start at SS.

 

I hope you aren't insinuating that Neifi is a bad defensive SS?

 

Problem with relying solely on statistics is that you have no clue under what situations those errors were made. Where they made after he got to a ball that most SS wouldn't have gotten to? How many plays did he make that other SS wouldn't have made? Will he benefit with having DLee at 1b?

 

Yes, I know what Furcal's SB% is. It's still only slightly above the break even point. I don't need to stretch stats to make that argument. If he was anywhere near 90%, I'd pay extra to get him, but he's not. He's regressed in that department anyways, going from 92.6%, 82.9%, to 82.1% the last three years and that will continue to regress as he gets older. BTW, his career SB% is 78%, so I didn't skew his numbers.

 

There's nothing wrong having two guys batting 1 and 2 with around .350 OBP. It is a problem when you're paying one guy 2.5 million to do it and the other 10 million. The only difference between the two players is defense and stolen bases. 7.5 million isn't worth that, especially when we have a better defensive option (neifi for sure and cedeno is debateably better) in house. the stolen bases certainly aren't worth much. he runs himself into outs, which is the most expensive thing you can do when you're trying to score runs.

 

lol, i don't know what kind of situations his errors came in? they usually came on throwing errors from what i've seen, or just flat out bobbling the ball (i watch the braves on TBS every chance i get). it doesn't have much to do with his "extra range." if he is making errors on the fringe of his range, then he shouldn't be throwing the ball, just holding onto it. throwing it into the seats isn't good (he basically negates whatever SB he gets by giving the other team an extra base on an errant throw).

 

Yes, furcal will benefit from having DLee at 1B. Who wouldn't? Cedeno would benefit just as much as furcal would in that department, so i'm not sure what your argument is.

 

Furcal isn't a bad player, but he is one of the favorites of scouts based on "tools" instead of looking at just how much his production helps the team. He is overvalued.

 

I can't beleive I'm saying this, but I'd rather have Neifi at SS (batting 8th of course, lol) and Walker/Murton going 1/2. We can make up production in the OF with the large amount of $ saved by not getting Furcal.

[CUBZ99]

You want to pay Furcal 8-10M per season for a few steals (his SB percentage isn't that spectacular...slightly above break even point), barely above average OBP, and a drinking problem?

 

I'll take Senor Cedeno as my starting SS if I can't have Nomar. Forget Mr. Overrated (Furcal). We'd be better off batting Walker leadoff. Why throw away 8-10 million dollars that we can use on the OF, bullpen, and another starting pitcher? Because he is a proven leadoff hitter? Sorry, but Atlanta was stupid to have him lead off. Furcal's OBP isn't anything fantastic and Walker will put up better numbers for millions less. We should be putting high OBP 1 and 2, not speed.

 

Exactly how is putting on of your top OBP guys leading off, being stupid? Also how do you figure a guy with a .348 OBP is overrated as a leadoff hitter. And -- you consider 46SB's a few more than Cedeno will have, how?

 

Furcal is one of the top five NL leadoff hitter consistently over the last three years, and plays a difficult position with exceptional skill. I realize that Cedeno may be a good/decent starting SS someday, but to say that Furcal is worthless or overrated is just plain uninformed.

 

Judging by the Cub's positional player moves i.e. Bobby Hill, Choi, Brendan Harris, etc., they do seem to have a handle on which players they believe will succeed and which ones they should salvage in a trade.

 

Furcal has a 3/4 SB/CS ratio. That's slightly above break even. you can generate the same number of runs by having someone steal on easy counts 4-5 times a year. That's the value of his stolen bases...not much at all. That's why I call him overrated.

 

As far as defense goes, he was Mr. Error in '02 and '03. you're assuming his defense this year (which was way above career norms for him) is going to continue. It's not. This year was an aberration.

 

If you want to compare him to a known quantity on defense, look no further than our own Neifi Perez, who has a better ZR, FPCT, RF, and less errors per start at SS.

 

You are overrating his defense.

 

No, .348 OBP isn't bad, but isn't spectacular either. It's definitely nothing to throw 8-10 million at when we have the same player OBP-wise in Todd Walker (actually walker is a few points better) for 2.5 million.

 

No, saying Furcal is overrated is not uninformed. I didn't say he sucked. I said people's opinions of him were wrong.

 

The problem I have with your argument is that you have to stretch the statistics to make your point. For instance your argument on SB,

 

You claim:

 

Furcal has a 3/4 SB/CS ratio. That's slightly above break even. you can generate the same number of runs by having someone steal on easy counts 4-5 times a year

.

 

Over the last 3 years Furcal has attempted 118 SBs and got caught 18 Times!!! That is an 85% success ratio, which is alot different than what you claim.

 

we have the same player OBP-wise in Todd Walker (actually walker is a few points better) for 2.5 million.

 

Nobody is arguing that Walker shouldn't be playing in this thread and last time I checked Walker played 2b and Furcal played SS, don't see a conflict there. What is wrong with having two guys that get on base at a .350 clip batting 1st and 2nd? With Lee and Ramirez following those 2, it would make for a pretty decent 1 - 4.

 

If you want to compare him to a known quantity on defense, look no further than our own Neifi Perez, who has a better ZR, FPCT, RF, and less errors per start at SS.

 

I hope you aren't insinuating that Neifi is a bad defensive SS?

 

Problem with relying solely on statistics is that you have no clue under what situations those errors were made. Where they made after he got to a ball that most SS wouldn't have gotten to? How many plays did he make that other SS wouldn't have made? Will he benefit with having DLee at 1b?

 

Yes, I know what Furcal's SB% is. It's still only slightly above the break even point. I don't need to stretch stats to make that argument. If he was anywhere near 90%, I'd pay extra to get him, but he's not. He's regressed in that department anyways, going from 92.6%, 82.9%, to 82.1% the last three years and that will continue to regress as he gets older. BTW, his career SB% is 78%, so I didn't skew his numbers.

 

There's nothing wrong having two guys batting 1 and 2 with around .350 OBP. It is a problem when you're paying one guy 2.5 million to do it and the other 10 million. The only difference between the two players is defense and stolen bases. 7.5 million isn't worth that, especially when we have a better defensive option (neifi for sure and cedeno is debateably better) in house. the stolen bases certainly aren't worth much. he runs himself into outs, which is the most expensive thing you can do when you're trying to score runs.

 

lol, i don't know what kind of situations his errors came in? they usually came on throwing errors from what i've seen, or just flat out bobbling the ball (i watch the braves on TBS every chance i get). it doesn't have much to do with his "extra range." if he is making errors on the fringe of his range, then he shouldn't be throwing the ball, just holding onto it. throwing it into the seats isn't good (he basically negates whatever SB he gets by giving the other team an extra base on an errant throw).

 

Yes, furcal will benefit from having DLee at 1B. Who wouldn't? Cedeno would benefit just as much as furcal would in that department, so i'm not sure what your argument is.

 

Furcal isn't a bad player, but he is one of the favorites of scouts based on "tools" instead of looking at just how much his production helps the team. He is overvalued.

 

I can't beleive I'm saying this, but I'd rather have Neifi at SS (batting 8th of course, lol) and Walker/Murton going 1/2. We can make up production in the OF with the large amount of $ saved by not getting Furcal.

 

I don't think there is anyway that Furcal gets $10M and if he does I would not be suprised if the Cubs passed on him. But, $8-10M for a team with the Cubs payroll is not going to break the bank or by any means keep them from acquiring other players. If they are bringing back Walker to start, you have 4 positions that are already filled (3B, 2B, 1B, C).

 

I agree with starting Murton in LF to save some money, but that would leave three positions to be filled by FA or trade and quite a bit of money left to do it.

 

Why would you rather have Perez starting than a substantial upgrade (offensively) at SS? Isn't the point to put the best team on the field? Furcal immediately gives the Cubs a threat at leadoff and a guy who actually gets on base. AND if Neifi did come back there is no doubt in my mind that Baker would continue to send him out at #1 or 2 in the lineup. ](*,)

[Warpticon]

You want to pay Furcal 8-10M per season for a few steals (his SB percentage isn't that spectacular...slightly above break even point), barely above average OBP, and a drinking problem?

 

I'll take Senor Cedeno as my starting SS if I can't have Nomar. Forget Mr. Overrated (Furcal). We'd be better off batting Walker leadoff. Why throw away 8-10 million dollars that we can use on the OF, bullpen, and another starting pitcher? Because he is a proven leadoff hitter? Sorry, but Atlanta was stupid to have him lead off. Furcal's OBP isn't anything fantastic and Walker will put up better numbers for millions less. We should be putting high OBP 1 and 2, not speed.

 

Exactly how is putting on of your top OBP guys leading off, being stupid? Also how do you figure a guy with a .348 OBP is overrated as a leadoff hitter. And -- you consider 46SB's a few more than Cedeno will have, how?

 

Furcal is one of the top five NL leadoff hitter consistently over the last three years, and plays a difficult position with exceptional skill. I realize that Cedeno may be a good/decent starting SS someday, but to say that Furcal is worthless or overrated is just plain uninformed.

 

Judging by the Cub's positional player moves i.e. Bobby Hill, Choi, Brendan Harris, etc., they do seem to have a handle on which players they believe will succeed and which ones they should salvage in a trade.

 

Furcal has a 3/4 SB/CS ratio. That's slightly above break even. you can generate the same number of runs by having someone steal on easy counts 4-5 times a year. That's the value of his stolen bases...not much at all. That's why I call him overrated.

 

As far as defense goes, he was Mr. Error in '02 and '03. you're assuming his defense this year (which was way above career norms for him) is going to continue. It's not. This year was an aberration.

 

If you want to compare him to a known quantity on defense, look no further than our own Neifi Perez, who has a better ZR, FPCT, RF, and less errors per start at SS.

 

You are overrating his defense.

 

No, .348 OBP isn't bad, but isn't spectacular either. It's definitely nothing to throw 8-10 million at when we have the same player OBP-wise in Todd Walker (actually walker is a few points better) for 2.5 million.

 

No, saying Furcal is overrated is not uninformed. I didn't say he sucked. I said people's opinions of him were wrong.

 

The problem I have with your argument is that you have to stretch the statistics to make your point. For instance your argument on SB,

 

You claim:

 

Furcal has a 3/4 SB/CS ratio. That's slightly above break even. you can generate the same number of runs by having someone steal on easy counts 4-5 times a year

.

 

Over the last 3 years Furcal has attempted 118 SBs and got caught 18 Times!!! That is an 85% success ratio, which is alot different than what you claim.

 

we have the same player OBP-wise in Todd Walker (actually walker is a few points better) for 2.5 million.

 

Nobody is arguing that Walker shouldn't be playing in this thread and last time I checked Walker played 2b and Furcal played SS, don't see a conflict there. What is wrong with having two guys that get on base at a .350 clip batting 1st and 2nd? With Lee and Ramirez following those 2, it would make for a pretty decent 1 - 4.

 

If you want to compare him to a known quantity on defense, look no further than our own Neifi Perez, who has a better ZR, FPCT, RF, and less errors per start at SS.

 

I hope you aren't insinuating that Neifi is a bad defensive SS?

 

Problem with relying solely on statistics is that you have no clue under what situations those errors were made. Where they made after he got to a ball that most SS wouldn't have gotten to? How many plays did he make that other SS wouldn't have made? Will he benefit with having DLee at 1b?

 

Yes, I know what Furcal's SB% is. It's still only slightly above the break even point. I don't need to stretch stats to make that argument. If he was anywhere near 90%, I'd pay extra to get him, but he's not. He's regressed in that department anyways, going from 92.6%, 82.9%, to 82.1% the last three years and that will continue to regress as he gets older. BTW, his career SB% is 78%, so I didn't skew his numbers.

 

There's nothing wrong having two guys batting 1 and 2 with around .350 OBP. It is a problem when you're paying one guy 2.5 million to do it and the other 10 million. The only difference between the two players is defense and stolen bases. 7.5 million isn't worth that, especially when we have a better defensive option (neifi for sure and cedeno is debateably better) in house. the stolen bases certainly aren't worth much. he runs himself into outs, which is the most expensive thing you can do when you're trying to score runs.

 

lol, i don't know what kind of situations his errors came in? they usually came on throwing errors from what i've seen, or just flat out bobbling the ball (i watch the braves on TBS every chance i get). it doesn't have much to do with his "extra range." if he is making errors on the fringe of his range, then he shouldn't be throwing the ball, just holding onto it. throwing it into the seats isn't good (he basically negates whatever SB he gets by giving the other team an extra base on an errant throw).

 

Yes, furcal will benefit from having DLee at 1B. Who wouldn't? Cedeno would benefit just as much as furcal would in that department, so i'm not sure what your argument is.

 

Furcal isn't a bad player, but he is one of the favorites of scouts based on "tools" instead of looking at just how much his production helps the team. He is overvalued.

 

I can't beleive I'm saying this, but I'd rather have Neifi at SS (batting 8th of course, lol) and Walker/Murton going 1/2. We can make up production in the OF with the large amount of $ saved by not getting Furcal.

 

I don't think there is anyway that Furcal gets $10M and if he does I would not be suprised if the Cubs passed on him. But, $8-10M for a team with the Cubs payroll is not going to break the bank or by any means keep them from acquiring other players. If they are bringing back Walker to start, you have 4 positions that are already filled (3B, 2B, 1B, C).

 

I agree with starting Murton in LF to save some money, but that would leave three positions to be filled by FA or trade and quite a bit of money left to do it.

 

Why would you rather have Perez starting than a substantial upgrade (offensively) at SS? Isn't the point to put the best team on the field? Furcal immediately gives the Cubs a threat at leadoff and a guy who actually gets on base. AND if Neifi did come back there is no doubt in my mind that Baker would continue to send him out at #1 or 2 in the lineup. ](*,)

 

I think the idea is that, while Neifi is weak offensively, at least he'd be around 2 million instead of 8-10. Keep in mind what Cabrera and Renteria signed for last year, and explain why you don't believe Furcal will get that much--he's younger and more consistently productive than either of the other two when they signed. For that price, you can get much higher production out of one of the other need spots (CF or RF) than Furcal provides, especially considering that there are other possibilities available (Nomar and Cedeno) who are either higher ceiling or lower cost at SS.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

I don't think there is anyway that Furcal gets $10M and if he does I would not be suprised if the Cubs passed on him. But, $8-10M for a team with the Cubs payroll is not going to break the bank or by any means keep them from acquiring other players. If they are bringing back Walker to start, you have 4 positions that are already filled (3B, 2B, 1B, C).

 

I agree with starting Murton in LF to save some money, but that would leave three positions to be filled by FA or trade and quite a bit of money left to do it.

 

Why would you rather have Perez starting than a substantial upgrade (offensively) at SS? Isn't the point to put the best team on the field? Furcal immediately gives the Cubs a threat at leadoff and a guy who actually gets on base. AND if Neifi did come back there is no doubt in my mind that Baker would continue to send him out at #1 or 2 in the lineup. ](*,)

 

No, we can afford an $8-10M SS easily. But, for the added O that he brings per dollar, you can more easily make that up in the OF for less money. We have so many holes that we need to be frugal (on a 100M team, lol) where we spend it. SS really isn't that important of a position offensively.

 

I won't cry if we get Furcal and not Brian Giles, but I'd rather have Giles than Furcal. I can't see us affording both and Giles would be much more valuable offensively for the dollar (especially in front of DLee and ARam).

[HoopsCubs]

Although his stats in the minors were good, I say we sign Furcal, and trade Cedeno for an outfielder.

 

Furcal has already proven himself in the big leagues, has already been in the playoffs, and is coming from one of the leagues best franchises. He brings experience, and talent to the table.

 

While Cedeno looks good on paper, its my opinion that he doesen't seem to be a groundbreaking kind of player, and if we're not going to give him the starting job, its best to trade him now while his value is at its highest.

 

Can't trade Ronny! Who will start at 2B after Todd Walker is dealt?

:wink: