Value for the dollar

[JGalt73]

Thought it might help to see who "cost" the team what this year. I've included the math because I'm not sure I got the salaries correct.

 

	          VORP	 Salary		
Derrek Lee	103.9	$7M		14.8 VORP/$M
Matt Murton	14.3	?		     ? VORP/$M
Todd Walker	30.2	$2.5M	 12.1 VORP/$M
M. Barrett	 32.4	$3M		10.8 VORP/$M
A. Ramirez	 47.6	$8M		 6.0 VORP/$M
Neifi Perez	11.4	$2.5M	  4.6 VORP/$M
J. Burnitz	 16.2	$5M	    3.2 VORP/$M
J. Hairston	 5.0	$1.8M	  2.8 VORP/$M
Henry Blanco	2.2	$1.2M	  1.8 VORP/$M
Nomar         11.2   $8.25M    1.4 VORP/$M
T. Hollands.	0.2	$0.9M	  0.2 VORP/$M
C. Patterson -11.3	$2.8M	 -4.0 VORP/$M
Jose Macias	-5.5	$0.825M  -6.7 VORP/$M

Pitching:				
           VORP	Salary		
J. Williams	16.0	$0.336M		47.6 VORP/$M
M. Wuertz	  10.3	$0.322M		32.0 VORP/$M
M. Prior	   30.8	$2M		    15.4 VORP/$M
C. Zambrano	51.0	$3.76M		 13.6 VORP/$M
W. Ohman	   12.5	?		         ? VORP/$M
R. Dempster	21.6	$2M		    10.8 VORP/$M
G. Rusch	   11.1	$2M		     5.6 VORP/$M
G. Maddux     28.1   $9M           3.1 VORP/$M
K. Wood	     9.0	$8.5M		   1.1 VORP/$M
S. Williamson -0.2	$0.5M		  -0.4 VORP/$M

 

If you're buying, Neifi v.2005 is actually a better value (with incentives) than Burnitz; and Aramis was overpaid.

 

Cheap pitching also trumps the stars! What will the Cubs do when they actually have to pay Prior and Zambrano real money?

Edited October 5, 2005 by JGalt73

[Geech]

No Maddux?

[JGalt73]

No Maddux?

 

Fixed, and it ain't pretty.

[Andy]

Cheap pitching also trumps the stars! What will the Cubs do when they actually have to pay Prior and Zambrano real money?

We'll find out this offseason. Zambrano is arbitration eligible I believe, and will probably be getting a lot closer to double digit millions next year.

[Guest]

Cheap pitching also trumps the stars! What will the Cubs do when they actually have to pay Prior and Zambrano real money?

That's not really a reflection on Prior and Zambrano as much as it is a manifestation of a universal truth of baseball; young players are cheap. While they typically don't produce quite as well as guys in the primes of their careers, the difference in price is far, far greater than the difference in performance. Before he reaches arbitration, a young player's salary will be a fraction of that of an established player.

 

Let's say you have two players. One is in his prime arbitration years and is producing at a rate of x for a fee of $5 million. The other is just coming off his rookie season and produces at a rate of .8x for a fee of $500k. Doing the math, we find the older, more productive player has a "value" of 0.2x per million in salary, while the young, less productive player has a "value" of 1.6x per million. Going by a straight production/cost metric, it's easy to see why younger players will almost always dominate the high-paid all-stars. (Another example; The Cubs would have paid Murton a pro-rated share of the league minimum this season. Let's be generous and say that it amounted to $200,000. That puts his VORP/$M at 71.5, nearly 5 times Lee's.)

 

That's why it's a good idea to use those young players if they can put up half-decent numbers. They may not be perennial all-stars, but without the money they save you it's almost impossible to afford perennial all-stars. (Unless you're the GM of the Yanks or Red Sox, that is.)

Edited October 5, 2005 by Anonymous

[Diffusion]

VORP doesn't include fielding.

[Electron Blue]

Thought it might help to see who "cost" the team what this year. I've included the math because I'm not sure I got the salaries correct.

 

	          VORP	 Salary		
Derrek Lee	103.9	$7M		14.8 VORP/$M
Matt Murton	14.3	?		     ? VORP/$M
Todd Walker	30.2	$2.5M	 12.1 VORP/$M
M. Barrett	 32.4	$3M		10.8 VORP/$M
A. Ramirez	 47.6	$8M		 6.0 VORP/$M
Neifi Perez	11.4	$2.5M	  4.6 VORP/$M
J. Burnitz	 16.2	$5M	    3.2 VORP/$M
J. Hairston	 5.0	$1.8M	  2.8 VORP/$M
Henry Blanco	2.2	$1.2M	  1.8 VORP/$M
T. Hollands.	0.2	$0.9M	  0.2 VORP/$M
C. Patterson -11.3	$2.8M	 -4.0 VORP/$M
Jose Macias	-5.5	$0.825M  -6.7 VORP/$M

Pitching:				
           VORP	Salary		
J. Williams	16.0	$0.336M		47.6 VORP/$M
M. Wuertz	  10.3	$0.322M		32.0 VORP/$M
M. Prior	   30.8	$2M		    15.4 VORP/$M
C. Zambrano	51.0	$3.76M		 13.6 VORP/$M
W. Ohman	   12.5	?		         ? VORP/$M
R. Dempster	21.6	$2M		    10.8 VORP/$M
G. Rusch	   11.1	$2M		     5.6 VORP/$M
G. Maddux     28.1   $9M           3.1 VORP/$M
K. Wood	     9.0	$8.5M		   1.1 VORP/$M
S. Williamson -0.2	$0.5M		  -0.4 VORP/$M

 

If you're buying, Neifi v.2005 is actually a better value (with incentives) than Burnitz; and Aramis was overpaid.

 

Cheap pitching also trumps the stars! What will the Cubs do when they actually have to pay Prior and Zambrano real money?

 

First of all, you can plug in around $330,000 believe for Murton, since it's the league minimum. And what do you mean by "Aramis is overpaid." Would him playing the last month (which he could have if we were in the race) have evened him out a bit?

[Balsa]

Not to mention Aramis started the year in a slump.

[gus_dog]

Thought it might help to see who "cost" the team what this year. I've included the math because I'm not sure I got the salaries correct.

 

	          VORP	 Salary		
Derrek Lee	103.9	$7M		14.8 VORP/$M
Matt Murton	14.3	?		     ? VORP/$M
Todd Walker	30.2	$2.5M	 12.1 VORP/$M
M. Barrett	 32.4	$3M		10.8 VORP/$M
A. Ramirez	 47.6	$8M		 6.0 VORP/$M
Neifi Perez	11.4	$2.5M	  4.6 VORP/$M
J. Burnitz	 16.2	$5M	    3.2 VORP/$M
J. Hairston	 5.0	$1.8M	  2.8 VORP/$M
Henry Blanco	2.2	$1.2M	  1.8 VORP/$M
T. Hollands.	0.2	$0.9M	  0.2 VORP/$M
C. Patterson -11.3	$2.8M	 -4.0 VORP/$M
Jose Macias	-5.5	$0.825M  -6.7 VORP/$M

Pitching:				
           VORP	Salary		
J. Williams	16.0	$0.336M		47.6 VORP/$M
M. Wuertz	  10.3	$0.322M		32.0 VORP/$M
M. Prior	   30.8	$2M		    15.4 VORP/$M
C. Zambrano	51.0	$3.76M		 13.6 VORP/$M
W. Ohman	   12.5	?		         ? VORP/$M
R. Dempster	21.6	$2M		    10.8 VORP/$M
G. Rusch	   11.1	$2M		     5.6 VORP/$M
G. Maddux     28.1   $9M           3.1 VORP/$M
K. Wood	     9.0	$8.5M		   1.1 VORP/$M
S. Williamson -0.2	$0.5M		  -0.4 VORP/$M

 

If you're buying, Neifi v.2005 is actually a better value (with incentives) than Burnitz; and Aramis was overpaid.

 

Cheap pitching also trumps the stars! What will the Cubs do when they actually have to pay Prior and Zambrano real money?

 

Say goodbye, Kerry Wood.

[CubfaninCA]

Where's Nomar?? Am guessing he has a negative score like Patterson. Altogether, Wood, Patterson and Nomar hurt the Cubs A LOT more than the vilified Neifi.

[USSoccer]

Yeah, Aramis was overpaid. :roll:

 

Before he faceplanted himself hustling down the line (which is what "everybody" complained about, him not hustling) he was leading the team in RBI's and HR, and was hitting over .300.

 

After starting the season in a brutal slump.

 

But yeah, he was overpaid. An injury that costs you the last month of the season doesn't make you overpaid, especially when you miss said month and still end up 2nd in most offensive categories...

[BigbadB]

And Wood, Nomar and Patterson haven't been vilified here this year? :roll:

[USSoccer]

And Wood, Nomar and Patterson haven't been vilified here this year? :roll:

 

Yeah, I haven't seen a single post rip Wood for being soft, or rip COrey for sucking...

 

...oh wait. That's 25% of Tim's bandwidth.

[wastra]

This is not good for much short of being interesting.

 

I'd rather get a low VORP/M but still get a high VORP at each position than get, say, Jerome Williams results across the board.

[JGalt73]

Where's Nomar?? Am guessing he has a negative score like Patterson. Altogether, Wood, Patterson and Nomar hurt the Cubs A LOT more than the vilified Neifi.

 

Nomar 11.4 VORP, $8.25M, 1.4 VORP/$M

[JGalt73]

This is not good for much short of being interesting.

 

I'd rather get a low VORP/M but still get a high VORP at each position than get, say, Jerome Williams results across the board.

 

I agree (and I started to think the same as I was posting it!). It would be great if you didn't have a 25 man roster, as you need to balance total value and not the rate I presented. What it does allow you to do is look at marginal value for more similar players - and let's you look at the cheap production of a Walker or Barrett. It also reinforces that young and cheap spots are more valuable than throwaway veterans.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

What are you trying to say by listing VORP/$ ?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Where's Nomar?? Am guessing he has a negative score like Patterson. Altogether, Wood, Patterson and Nomar hurt the Cubs A LOT more than the vilified Neifi.

 

Nomar 11.4 VORP, $8.25M, 1.4 VORP/$M

 

The exact some offensive output for the team in 342 less at bats. Wow.

[JGalt73]

Yeah, Aramis was overpaid. :roll:

 

Before he faceplanted himself hustling down the line (which is what "everybody" complained about, him not hustling) he was leading the team in RBI's and HR, and was hitting over .300.

 

After starting the season in a brutal slump.

 

But yeah, he was overpaid. An injury that costs you the last month of the season doesn't make you overpaid, especially when you miss said month and still end up 2nd in most offensive categories...

 

Aramis was not overpaid for his position and for the output he put up. Didn't mean to cause a stir, I posted that with only an eye to return on investment rate, which obviously is flawed against veterans as Bob's Keeper well articulated. You'd be hard pressed to get that repeatable high value for much less on the open market.

[cubbieinexile]

I never liked these types of evaluations. It creates this weird sense that being overpaid is bad, it isn't. Once a player goes past average his salary skyrockets and wins above average are a premium for most players that have more then 4 years of experience. If you build a team that is efficient with their money, meaning they acquire players that play at a level that these stats deem is worth the money they are being paid you know what kind of team you would have? 90% of the time you would have a team that doesn't make the playoffs and probably has a losing record. I said it before in another thread but people get so wrapped up in the money that they lose sight of what is being added and what is the other options. Yes you can get a guy who gets paid 1 million dollars and is worth 2 wins or you could get a guy who is paid 8 million dollars and gives you 6 wins. It seems to me that a lot people would be pissed that their team got the second guy and think they got a deal on the first guy. Even though getting the accurately or even underpaid first guy is going to cost you 4 wins.

[CubfaninCA]

And Wood, Nomar and Patterson haven't been vilified here this year? :roll:

 

Patterson's taken it pretty bad. Wood & Nomar not nearly as much.

[goonys evil twin]

And Wood, Nomar and Patterson haven't been vilified here this year? :roll:

 

Patterson's taken it pretty bad. Wood & Nomar not nearly as much.

 

It's kind of hard to get people into a frenzy of anger at a player for getting hurt. As far as I can tell it's not like either of these guys broke an arm cleaning his truck.

[CubfaninCA]

And Wood, Nomar and Patterson haven't been vilified here this year? :roll:

 

Patterson's taken it pretty bad. Wood & Nomar not nearly as much.

 

It's kind of hard to get people into a frenzy of anger at a player for getting hurt. As far as I can tell it's not like either of these guys broke an arm cleaning his truck.

 

What about Maddux then?? Perhaps Neifi just isn't the villian some prefer to paint him as??

[BigbadB]

I don't understand what your beef is. I personally didn't have a problem having Neifi on the team. The fact Dusty Baker doesn't know how to use him properly makes it a problem he's on the team.

 

If Baker was fired and his replacement batted him 7th in the line up on off days for the starter, I'd still be fine having him on the team. But, it doesn't sound like that is going to happen.

 

I haven't vilified him. I haven't seen many others do it either. I'd say Neifi gets no more hate posts than any of the previously mentioned players. There are a whole lot of people who don't want Maddux back next year.

 

I'd say the biggest complaint about having Neifi on the team has more to do with Dusty's use of Neifi Perez rather than Neifi Perez himself.

 

Neifi=adequate back up

Neifi=below average everyday player

 

Are you mad at the people who wanted to see what Cedeno could do playing everyday over Neifi playing everyday?

 

Are you mad because I posted Neifi's OBP as a lead off hitter? This is not a reflection of Neifi, since he isn't the one who filled out the line up card with Neifi batting lead off.

 

I just don't understand your woe is Neifi posts. I can make a whole list of people who get more negative attention at this place than Neifi Perez.

[goonys evil twin]

And Wood, Nomar and Patterson haven't been vilified here this year? :roll:

 

Patterson's taken it pretty bad. Wood & Nomar not nearly as much.

 

It's kind of hard to get people into a frenzy of anger at a player for getting hurt. As far as I can tell it's not like either of these guys broke an arm cleaning his truck.

 

What about Maddux then?? Perhaps Neifi just isn't the villian some prefer to paint him as??

 

After all is said and done, you are the one talking about Neifi and his villian status more than anybody else.