Sun Times Article on Possible FA Acquisitions

[Guest]

Still can't believe 55 runs = only 5-6 games.

Believe it or not, a 10-run swing in a team's differential translates into about one win. The exact formula for Runs Per Win (RPW) is as follows:

 

RPW = 10 * SQRT[(RS+RA)/(G*9)]

 

That method for getting a W-L record from a team's differential actually works out to be more accurate than James' Pythagorean method. (Mostly because it adjusts for run environment... the fewer runs a team scores/allows, the fewer it needs to win ballgames.)

 

So how many games has Neifi cost us this year?? 1 or 2?

It depends on what you're comparing him to. If you compare him to a typical big-league hitter, then yes, his poor offensive production has cost us about a game and a half. (That's in a career year, mind you.) If you compare him to other SS, however, he's probably only cost us 1.1 - 1.2 games in the standings.

And compared to a full-strength Nomar?

Compared to Nomar at his 2002-2003 levels (which is about where he's been since his return from the groin injury) the difference would be about 4-5 wins over a full season. Try and guess who I'd rather bring back for 2006...

[CubfaninCA]

Still can't believe 55 runs = only 5-6 games.

Believe it or not, a 10-run swing in a team's differential translates into about one win. The exact formula for Runs Per Win (RPW) is as follows:

 

RPW = 10 * SQRT[(RS+RA)/(G*9)]

 

That method for getting a W-L record from a team's differential actually works out to be more accurate than James' Pythagorean method. (Mostly because it adjusts for run environment... the fewer runs a team scores/allows, the fewer it needs to win ballgames.)

 

So how many games has Neifi cost us this year?? 1 or 2?

It depends on what you're comparing him to. If you compare him to a typical big-league hitter, then yes, his poor offensive production has cost us about a game and a half. (That's in a career year, mind you.) If you compare him to other SS, however, he's probably only cost us 1.1 - 1.2 games in the standings.

 

Guess Neifi shouldn't be villified then.

 

I'll take a wild guess and assume that Giles and Abreu lead in this stat.

[Guest]

So how many games has Neifi cost us this year?? 1 or 2?

It depends on what you're comparing him to. If you compare him to a typical big-league hitter, then yes, his poor offensive production has cost us about a game and a half. (That's in a career year, mind you.) If you compare him to other SS, however, he's probably only cost us 1.1 - 1.2 games in the standings.

 

Guess Neifi shouldn't be villified then.

It depends on how you look at it. No, Neifi can't and shouldn't be blamed for single-handedly wrecking the 2005 Cubs. However, he has cost the Cubs more games with his bat than any other player save Corey, and it's pretty much a wash between them. (-1.53 WAA for Perez, -1.58 for Patterson.) So while his performance hasn't been abysmal, Perez is one of the biggest reasons the Cubs are below .500 right now.

[NoDak]

I don't know that I would spend much money on Furcal. He is a solid player, but Nomar has had similar numbers and, provided he doesn't have a freak injury again, will likely out play Furcal. Put on top of that he will likely want a short term contract with incentives (so that he is free to leave after 06 if he succeeds). If he struggles or is injured, I wouldn't mind seeing Cedeno there. While it is based on a small sample size, he did have a line of .300/.356/.375/.731. While he lacks in the power dept POWER hasn't been the problem for CHC. I don't think that a line of .275-.280/.350/.400 is out of the question for him. He would also be an inexpensive option. I think Furcal will get lots of attention in a "down year" for FA.

 

As for the Webb deal, I would pull the trigger. As Tim points out, it fills several spots, 1B is one of the easiest spots to fill (we have a prospect there already so we will be only signing a stopgap for a couple of years). Also, you can never have too many ground ball pitchers in Wrigley.

[wastra]

Furcal is a Jim Hendry wet-dream.

 

Lots of athletic ability. Swings hard, and hits it hard for a SS. Doesn't really get on base at a leadoff hitter's rate.

 

Runs really well.

 

Plays good defense.

 

 

 

Sounds like almost every scouting report on every position player in our system (except Furcal has done it at a major league level). That being said, he's not an $8 or $9 million player, IMO, as he's not an outstanding guy at getting on base, which is what we'd want from a SS not named Nomar.

[sweetpeteman]

Furcal is a Jim Hendry wet-dream.

 

Lots of athletic ability. Swings hard, and hits it hard for a SS. Doesn't really get on base at a leadoff hitter's rate.

 

Runs really well.

 

Plays good defense.

 

 

 

Sounds like almost every scouting report on every position player in our system (except Furcal has done it at a major league level). That being said, he's not an $8 or $9 million player, IMO, as he's not an outstanding guy at getting on base, which is what we'd want from a SS not named Nomar.

 

Not really, he actually can be very inaccurate with his arm. With DLee on the other side, it will be better, but he is a lot like Aram with the strong but inaccurate arm.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Furcal is a Jim Hendry wet-dream.

 

Lots of athletic ability. Swings hard, and hits it hard for a SS. Doesn't really get on base at a leadoff hitter's rate.

 

Runs really well.

 

Plays good defense.

 

 

 

Sounds like almost every scouting report on every position player in our system (except Furcal has done it at a major league level). That being said, he's not an $8 or $9 million player, IMO, as he's not an outstanding guy at getting on base, which is what we'd want from a SS not named Nomar.

 

Not really, he actually can be very inaccurate with his arm. With DLee on the other side, it will be better, but he is a lot like Aram with the strong but inaccurate arm.

 

Furcal's outstanding defensively. In fact, I don't know how I missed him when I was looking to see who could give Neifi a run for his money this year for the Gold Glove.

[Diffusion]

Not so stupid that people should suggest trading Lee because he's had a career year and is at the height of his value. Very stupid that they should suggest trading Lee for someone in Chad Tracy that's had a career year and is at the height of his value. Brandon Webb would be a better idea if we had much better infield defence. Carlos Quentin would be a better idea if he'd put up his minor league numbers away from ridiculously friendly hitter's park. Lancaster, El Paso, Tucson - Neifi Perez could almost slug .500 in those parks. All in all, it's not an idea that hugely appeals to me.

[jtownie]

Furcal is a Jim Hendry wet-dream.

 

Lots of athletic ability. Swings hard, and hits it hard for a SS. Doesn't really get on base at a leadoff hitter's rate.

 

Runs really well.

 

Plays good defense.

 

 

 

Sounds like almost every scouting report on every position player in our system (except Furcal has done it at a major league level). That being said, he's not an $8 or $9 million player, IMO, as he's not an outstanding guy at getting on base, which is what we'd want from a SS not named Nomar.

 

Not really, he actually can be very inaccurate with his arm. With DLee on the other side, it will be better, but he is a lot like Aram with the strong but inaccurate arm.

 

Furcal's outstanding defensively. In fact, I don't know how I missed him when I was looking to see who could give Neifi a run for his money this year for the Gold Glove.

 

Going along with this Furcal discussion I was looking on the Hardball Times today and was looking at Win Shares. Furcal had 27 win shares compared to Miguel Tejada's 26. Thought that was interesting.

[YearofDaCubs]

Furcal is a Jim Hendry wet-dream.

 

Lots of athletic ability. Swings hard, and hits it hard for a SS. Doesn't really get on base at a leadoff hitter's rate.

 

Runs really well.

 

Plays good defense.

 

 

 

Sounds like almost every scouting report on every position player in our system (except Furcal has done it at a major league level). That being said, he's not an $8 or $9 million player, IMO, as he's not an outstanding guy at getting on base, which is what we'd want from a SS not named Nomar.

 

Not really, he actually can be very inaccurate with his arm. With DLee on the other side, it will be better, but he is a lot like Aram with the strong but inaccurate arm.

 

Furcal's outstanding defensively. In fact, I don't know how I missed him when I was looking to see who could give Neifi a run for his money this year for the Gold Glove.

 

Going along with this Furcal discussion I was looking on the Hardball Times today and was looking at Win Shares. Furcal had 27 win shares compared to Miguel Tejada's 26. Thought that was interesting.

Furcal gets no love here but I woudl like to have him at SS, but it complicates things with Nomar and Cedeno. Hendry has his work cut out for him that is for sure.

[HoopsCubs]

Furcal gets no love here but I woudl like to have him at SS, but it complicates things with Nomar and Cedeno. Hendry has his work cut out for him that is for sure.

 

I don't think it's that complicated.

 

Sign Furcal.

Move Cedeno to 2B.

Trade Walker for a relief pitcher.

Waive goodbye to Nomar.

 

As for the other moves:

 

Sign Lofton.

Sign Giles or trade for a corner OF - Floyd, Abreu, Burrell.

Sign (Millwood, Byrd, Weaver) or trade (Zito, Hernandez, Schmidt, Vazquez) for a starting pitcher.

 

All those moves should easily fit into Hendry's budget.

[goonys evil twin]

Trade Walker for a relief pitcher.

 

So improve your offense at SS, but offset that with a decrease of offense and 2nd, and all you end up with is a relief pitcher?

 

I don't like that series of moves much. The worst part would be that guarantees some crappy hack veteran will be signed as a backup and be given Cedeno's job the minute he makes a "rookie mistake*" or hits a slump.

 

 

 

With Dusty and the Cubs, a rookie mistake is any mistake a veteran makes all the time, but if it's done by a kid.

[CubfaninCA]

Furcal gets no love here but I woudl like to have him at SS, but it complicates things with Nomar and Cedeno. Hendry has his work cut out for him that is for sure.

 

I don't think it's that complicated.

 

Sign Furcal.

Move Cedeno to 2B.

Trade Walker for a relief pitcher.

Waive goodbye to Nomar.

 

As for the other moves:

 

Sign Lofton.

Sign Giles or trade for a corner OF - Floyd, Abreu, Burrell.

Sign (Millwood, Byrd, Weaver) or trade (Zito, Hernandez, Schmidt, Vazquez) for a starting pitcher.

 

All those moves should easily fit into Hendry's budget.

 

Trade Walker for an OF bat. Preferrably a middle of the order hitter, who's lefthanded.

 

Agree w/ the other ideas.

 

Oh and bring back Hairston and Rusch.

[Backtobanks]

Furcal gets no love here but I woudl like to have him at SS, but it complicates things with Nomar and Cedeno. Hendry has his work cut out for him that is for sure.

 

I don't think it's that complicated.

 

Sign Furcal.

Move Cedeno to 2B.

Trade Walker for a relief pitcher.

Waive goodbye to Nomar.

 

As for the other moves:

 

Sign Lofton.

Sign Giles or trade for a corner OF - Floyd, Abreu, Burrell.

Sign (Millwood, Byrd, Weaver) or trade (Zito, Hernandez, Schmidt, Vazquez) for a starting pitcher.

 

All those moves should easily fit into Hendry's budget.

 

Trade Walker for an OF bat. Preferrably a middle of the order hitter, who's lefthanded.

 

Agree w/ the other ideas.

 

Oh and bring back Hairston and Rusch.

 

Hoops, I agree with most of what you said. People are making this way too complicated and expensive. (1.) Resign Walker & Rusch (either or both made be used for trade bait) (2.) Go after Giles, Lofton, and Millwood as free agents. (3.) If Giles doesn't sign, go after Floyd. (4.) The fate of Cedeno and Walker depends on Nomar signing a low-base, high-incentive contract. If he signs, Cedeno plays 2B and Walker is traded. If he doesn't sign, Cedeno plays SS and Walker plays 2B. (5.) Any other needs to be filled by trades using: Patterson, Rusch (possibly), Williams, Hill, Walker (possibly), Mitre, Welly, and other prospects.

 

Lineup: Lofton (Hairston as sub) SP: Zambrano Pen: Dempster

Murton/ Cedeno/Walker Prior Novoa

Lee Wood Wuertz

Ramirez Millwood (possibly) Ohman

Giles or Floyd Maddux Van Buren

Barrett Rusch (possibly) Trade (??)

Walker or Murton Williams (possibly) Trade(??)

Cedeno ( or Blanco if he's catching)

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Furcal gets no love here but I woudl like to have him at SS, but it complicates things with Nomar and Cedeno. Hendry has his work cut out for him that is for sure.

 

I don't think it's that complicated.

 

Sign Furcal.

Move Cedeno to 2B.

Trade Walker for a relief pitcher.

Waive goodbye to Nomar.

 

As for the other moves:

 

Sign Lofton.

Sign Giles or trade for a corner OF - Floyd, Abreu, Burrell.

Sign (Millwood, Byrd, Weaver) or trade (Zito, Hernandez, Schmidt, Vazquez) for a starting pitcher.

 

All those moves should easily fit into Hendry's budget.

 

Nice to see you've adopted my modus operandi for the offseason to a tee. The only difference I have is that I'd prefer trading for Milton Bradley or Juan Pierre for CF, as superior options to Lofton, only because of Kenny's age. But if not Bradley or Pierre, then Lofton is an acceptable later choice.

 

As for how to do it? I prefer using Walker to get my setup reliever (I'm looking at you, Jesse Crain), so my offer to Florida for Pierre is Patterson, Rich Hill and Jon Leicester/Jon Koronka (pick 'em). To Los Angeles, Walker for Bradley straight up is the trade that makes sense, as LA can use Walker at 2B, allowing Kent to move to 1B. If we've used Walker in a trade elsewhere though, I would think a Jerome Williams/minor league pitcher offer could do the trick for the unwanted Bradley.

[BigbadB]

Letting Nomar go is not a precursor to automatically signing Furcal. How many teams might be interested in a good fielding SS that has a decent OBP and has + speed?

 

Off the top of my head, the White Sox, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Houston come to mind. Atlanta could resign him as well.

 

What will happen first? Nomar will be turned loose. Now you have Nomar gone, Furcal signed somewhere else, and all that's left is Cedeno. I like Cedeno, but I'd prefer Cedeno as protection if a middle infielder gets hurt.

 

How high could Furcal end up going? We saw what Renteria got. We saw what Guzman and Cabrera got. That was in a year there was a lot of SS options. That's not the case this year, and Furcal's agent knows it.

 

To me, bringing Nomar back is a no brainer. He wants to come back and he'd probably sign an incentive based contract to come back. He knows his injuries have let Chicago down. He has even made the claim that a position change would be acceptable as long as he could remain a Cub. That might just be him being all nicey-nice, but with Cedeno as his back up, SS is not an issue. By letting Nomar go, we potentially turn SS into an issue. The money spent to lure Furcal and the desire to spend money for another rotation arm reduces the available money to throw at Brian Giles.

 

Letting Nomar go is a huge gamble. A bigger gamble than seeing if he can play in 2006 at full health.

 

I don't like playing the I told you so game. I wouldn't do it. However, if Nomar walks and we don't get Furcal, I told you that might happen.

 

To add fuel to the fire, let Walker go and you now have another hole to fill. Who plays 2nd when Nomar walks, Furcal signs somewhere else and Cedeno is slotted at SS? Hairston?

 

Would these moves give Brian Giles the impression that the Cubs are trying to improve the team? Giles wants a ring. To lure Giles to a team that has the history of losing that Chicago does, you are going to have to impress him with more than letting two productive hitters walk and using roster filler to replace them.

 

I've stated before that I'm very afraid of this offseason. I'm afraid that Chicago is not even going to discuss bringing Nomar back. I'm afraid they will just let Walker take a hike. I'm afraid that Furcal, Giles, Millwood, Burnett and others opt for better futures elsewhere.

 

What is the likelihood you can work on a deal for Furcal while keeping Nomar on hold on the other line in case a deal can't be worked out? I find that highly unlikely.

[YearofDaCubs]

Now you guys got me thinking. Lineups that to me would be acceptable:

 

Pierre

Murton

Giles

Lee

ARam

Nomar

Barrett

Cedeno

PITCHER

 

Furcal

Murton

Giles

Lee

ARam

Barrett

Cedeno

Patterson

PITCHER

 

I like the first one better because it gets rid of the bust Patterson completely from the picture which is a GREAT thing. If we were to sign a SP, I would like to have Burnett. You can replace Giles with another legit OF bat if necessary but I think both lineups are attainable and an improvement over this year.

[frostwyrm]

Furcal gets no love here but I woudl like to have him at SS, but it complicates things with Nomar and Cedeno. Hendry has his work cut out for him that is for sure.

 

I don't think it's that complicated.

 

Sign Furcal.

Move Cedeno to 2B.

Trade Walker for a relief pitcher.

Waive goodbye to Nomar.

 

As for the other moves:

 

Sign Lofton.

Sign Giles or trade for a corner OF - Floyd, Abreu, Burrell.

Sign (Millwood, Byrd, Weaver) or trade (Zito, Hernandez, Schmidt, Vazquez) for a starting pitcher.

 

All those moves should easily fit into Hendry's budget.

 

I really do NOT like the idea of Cedeno as next year's 2B. His primary value is at SS, which is the hardest position to fill and has the lowest offensive expectations. If you put him at 2B his value is greatly diminished. I'd much rather trade him.

[YearofDaCubs]

Letting Nomar go is not a precursor to automatically signing Furcal. How many teams might be interested in a good fielding SS that has a decent OBP and has + speed?

 

Off the top of my head, the White Sox, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Houston come to mind. Atlanta could resign him as well.

 

What will happen first? Nomar will be turned loose. Now you have Nomar gone, Furcal signed somewhere else, and all that's left is Cedeno. I like Cedeno, but I'd prefer Cedeno as protection if a middle infielder gets hurt.

 

How high could Furcal end up going? We saw what Renteria got. We saw what Guzman and Cabrera got. That was in a year there was a lot of SS options. That's not the case this year, and Furcal's agent knows it.

 

To me, bringing Nomar back is a no brainer. He wants to come back and he'd probably sign an incentive based contract to come back. He knows his injuries have let Chicago down. He has even made the claim that a position change would be acceptable as long as he could remain a Cub. That might just be him being all nicey-nice, but with Cedeno as his back up, SS is not an issue. By letting Nomar go, we potentially turn SS into an issue. The money spent to lure Furcal and the desire to spend money for another rotation arm reduces the available money to throw at Brian Giles.

 

Letting Nomar go is a huge gamble. A bigger gamble than seeing if he can play in 2006 at full health.

 

I don't like playing the I told you so game. I wouldn't do it. However, if Nomar walks and we don't get Furcal, I told you that might happen.

 

To add fuel to the fire, let Walker go and you now have another hole to fill. Who plays 2nd when Nomar walks, Furcal signs somewhere else and Cedeno is slotted at SS? Hairston?

 

Would these moves give Brian Giles the impression that the Cubs are trying to improve the team? Giles wants a ring. To lure Giles to a team that has the history of losing that Chicago does, you are going to have to impress him with more than letting two productive hitters walk and using roster filler to replace them.

 

I've stated before that I'm very afraid of this offseason. I'm afraid that Chicago is not even going to discuss bringing Nomar back. I'm afraid they will just let Walker take a hike. I'm afraid that Furcal, Giles, Millwood, Burnett and others opt for better futures elsewhere.

 

What is the likelihood you can work on a deal for Furcal while keeping Nomar on hold on the other line in case a deal can't be worked out? I find that highly unlikely.

You bring up valid points and I agree with you that's why I think Hendry will have his hands full offseason. Gut-check time for Mr. Hendry.

[CubfaninCA]

Letting Nomar go is not a precursor to automatically signing Furcal. How many teams might be interested in a good fielding SS that has a decent OBP and has + speed?

 

Off the top of my head, the White Sox, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Houston come to mind. Atlanta could resign him as well.

 

What will happen first? Nomar will be turned loose. Now you have Nomar gone, Furcal signed somewhere else, and all that's left is Cedeno. I like Cedeno, but I'd prefer Cedeno as protection if a middle infielder gets hurt.

 

How high could Furcal end up going? We saw what Renteria got. We saw what Guzman and Cabrera got. That was in a year there was a lot of SS options. That's not the case this year, and Furcal's agent knows it.

 

To me, bringing Nomar back is a no brainer. He wants to come back and he'd probably sign an incentive based contract to come back. He knows his injuries have let Chicago down. He has even made the claim that a position change would be acceptable as long as he could remain a Cub. That might just be him being all nicey-nice, but with Cedeno as his back up, SS is not an issue. By letting Nomar go, we potentially turn SS into an issue. The money spent to lure Furcal and the desire to spend money for another rotation arm reduces the available money to throw at Brian Giles.

 

Letting Nomar go is a huge gamble. A bigger gamble than seeing if he can play in 2006 at full health.

 

I don't like playing the I told you so game. I wouldn't do it. However, if Nomar walks and we don't get Furcal, I told you that might happen.

 

To add fuel to the fire, let Walker go and you now have another hole to fill. Who plays 2nd when Nomar walks, Furcal signs somewhere else and Cedeno is slotted at SS? Hairston?

 

Would these moves give Brian Giles the impression that the Cubs are trying to improve the team? Giles wants a ring. To lure Giles to a team that has the history of losing that Chicago does, you are going to have to impress him with more than letting two productive hitters walk and using roster filler to replace them.

 

I've stated before that I'm very afraid of this offseason. I'm afraid that Chicago is not even going to discuss bringing Nomar back. I'm afraid they will just let Walker take a hike. I'm afraid that Furcal, Giles, Millwood, Burnett and others opt for better futures elsewhere.

 

What is the likelihood you can work on a deal for Furcal while keeping Nomar on hold on the other line in case a deal can't be worked out? I find that highly unlikely.

 

Doesn't SF have Vizquel signed for another year or two?

 

The White Sox won't make a big offer.

 

I think LA will look to upgrade @ 1b, 3b or the OF, and they need to add a starter, so they'll probably stay w/ Izturis @ SS. They really like his D.

 

Probably have to worry about Houston.

 

Altogether, I'd be skeptical of getting Furcal, but the market's pretty thin w/ him, since most the big market clubs are set @ SS. What the Cubs can't do is let Nomar walk and deal off Walker, as well, w/out having a replacement already in place to go along w/ Cedeno.

[USSoccer]

What frightens me about this offseason is that Hendry has a lot of holes to fill, and a lot of money to do it with. He's shows a habit of lowballing potential FA"s while overpaying the back end of his roster. That doesn't make me feel good about us getting the best players in the positions we need them in. I'm afraid of Preston Wilson or Burnitz in RF instead of Giles, and I'm very fearful of bringing Rusch back.

 

I'd feel better about this offseason had last offseason gone well, but it was a mess. We have the same holes to fill plus a couple new holes. I just don't have total faith in Hendry to prioritize Giles over Bobby Howry, or let Neifi and Macias go in favor of better, cheaper options for the bench.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

 

Probably have to worry about Houston.

 

.

 

I doubt Houston will be adding any big time FA's.

 

Here's a cursory glance at their payroll for 2006.

 

Pettitte 17 million

Bagwell 17 million

Biggio 4.5 million

Berkman 10 million

 

Those four players account for 48 million in payroll. Assume they keep Clemens, he'll command around 18 million again.

 

That's 66 million for five players. Ensberg, Everett, Oswalt, and Lidge are arbitration eligible.

 

Ensberg will likely get 5 million.

Oswalt is in his sixth year, so he'll get 10 at least. Lidge will likely get 6.

 

That's 87 million for eight players. Some of that money in Bagwell and Pettitte's deals are deferred, but we're still at 75 million for eight players. Also some of Kent's and Clemens' money has been deferred until this year, so that's added back in, putting us roughly at 80 million.Unless they significantly up payroll from the 85-88 million that it's been set at, Houston will not be too active in the FA market. My guess is that they'll stick with Everett at SS.

[gflore34]

What frightens me about this offseason is that Hendry has a lot of holes to fill, and a lot of money to do it with. He's shows a habit of lowballing potential FA"s while overpaying the back end of his roster. That doesn't make me feel good about us getting the best players in the positions we need them in. I'm afraid of Preston Wilson or Burnitz in RF instead of Giles, and I'm very fearful of bringing Rusch back.

 

I'd feel better about this offseason had last offseason gone well, but it was a mess. We have the same holes to fill plus a couple new holes. I just don't have total faith in Hendry to prioritize Giles over Bobby Howry, or let Neifi and Macias go in favor of better, cheaper options for the bench.

 

Well said, I often wonder what numbers Hendry and Co. look at, last season should have shouted out the need for more offensive consistency and what did he do - signs all or nothing Burnitz. This season with the losing streak threesome of 7, 7 and 8 (or was it 7, 8 and 8?) once again exemplifies the need for offensive consistency - has he learned?

[BigbadB]

 

Probably have to worry about Houston.

 

.

 

I doubt Houston will be adding any big time FA's.

 

Here's a cursory glance at their payroll for 2006.

 

Pettitte 17 million

Bagwell 17 million

Biggio 4.5 million

Berkman 10 million

 

Those four players account for 48 million in payroll. Assume they keep Clemens, he'll command around 18 million again.

 

That's 66 million for five players. Ensberg, Everett, Oswalt, and Lidge are arbitration eligible.

 

Ensberg will likely get 5 million.

Oswalt is in his sixth year, so he'll get 10 at least. Lidge will likely get 6.

 

That's 87 million for eight players. Some of that money in Bagwell and Pettitte's deals are deferred, but we're still at 75 million for eight players. Also some of Kent's and Clemens' money has been deferred until this year, so that's added back in, putting us roughly at 80 million.Unless they significantly up payroll from the 85-88 million that it's been set at, Houston will not be too active in the FA market. My guess is that they'll stick with Everett at SS.

 

Will Bagwell play again? If not, that frees up some money. With Biggio playing one more year, you can expect that money to be freed up the following year.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Furcal gets no love here but I woudl like to have him at SS, but it complicates things with Nomar and Cedeno. Hendry has his work cut out for him that is for sure.

 

I don't think it's that complicated.

 

Sign Furcal.

Move Cedeno to 2B.

Trade Walker for a relief pitcher.

Waive goodbye to Nomar.

 

As for the other moves:

 

Sign Lofton.

Sign Giles or trade for a corner OF - Floyd, Abreu, Burrell.

Sign (Millwood, Byrd, Weaver) or trade (Zito, Hernandez, Schmidt, Vazquez) for a starting pitcher.

 

All those moves should easily fit into Hendry's budget.

 

I really do NOT like the idea of Cedeno as next year's 2B. His primary value is at SS, which is the hardest position to fill and has the lowest offensive expectations. If you put him at 2B his value is greatly diminished. I'd much rather trade him.

 

If you don't like Cedeno at 2B with Furcal at SS, then put Cedeno at SS and go get a 2B instead. Like little brother Giles :-)

 

I like Furcal, he makes sense, but here's another option no one is talking about--what about Julio Lugo? Many here (self included) liked him as an option last winter. Now, Tampa is ready to move him with his salary growing and BJ Upton on the way. Lugo is no all-star, but he is steady, decent OBP, can steal some bases, good defense, and will be much cheaper than Furcal. Yes, Tampa is notoriously difficult to trade with, but Lugo can be had.

 

Furcal/Cedeno is still my first choice, though...