Murton's Power Stroke

[AAApittsburgh]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say he'll put up Chad Tracy type numbers next season if given regular playing time.

[Crash]

The uncertainty with Murton is why we can't go into next season with him, Patterson, and Cedeno all in the same lineup. One is fine, two would be okay under the right circumstances, but all 3 would virtually guarantee a lack of improvement on offense.

 

Not nessesarily, it would depend on who else was added. True if you just add Murton and Cedeno to the current lineup the improvement wouldn't be drastic. THough I do think there would be some improvement, full seasons from Cedeno and Murton would like produce more from LF and SS than the Cubs got for the balance of '05. But if you add an impact bat to RF that would give you 3 pretty good bats in the line up (Lee, Ramirez, and RF), 2 solid bats (Walker and Barrett), then Patterson, Cedeno, and Murton. Chances are one of them would perform badly but you could probably get average production out of 1 or 2.

 

Of course I would rather start Murton and sign Nomar to an incentive deal while keeping Cedeno as insurance and to regularly rest Nomar.

[otis89]

Am I alone in thinking that a full season of Murton next year would yield a 260/320/390 line?

 

i'd maybe give him a .270/.335/.400, but, yeah, i think a lot of people are expecting a little much out of him.

 

I would like to know why so many of you are expecting him to do so much worse next year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The uncertainty with Murton is why we can't go into next season with him, Patterson, and Cedeno all in the same lineup. One is fine, two would be okay under the right circumstances, but all 3 would virtually guarantee a lack of improvement on offense.

 

You don't think that the offense would be better with Murton in LF for a full year, and a middle IF with Walker, Nomar and Cedeno?

 

Consider what our middle IF was this season for long stretches?

 

Cedeno isn't the starter in that situation. Also, for the improvement made from Neifi to Nomar, Lee is likely to regress, removing some of that advantage.

[sethuel1]

Am I alone in thinking that a full season of Murton next year would yield a 260/320/390 line?

 

i'd maybe give him a .270/.335/.400, but, yeah, i think a lot of people are expecting a little much out of him.

 

I would like to know why so many of you are expecting him to do so much worse next year.

 

because, as Dusty says, teams will eventually "get the book" on him. And Dusty is rarely wrong.

[YearofDaCubs]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say he'll put up Chad Tracy type numbers next season if given regular playing time.

Chady Tracy = A lefty Murton :)

[burnt out cubbie fan]

Am I alone in thinking that a full season of Murton next year would yield a 260/320/390 line?

 

i'd maybe give him a .270/.335/.400, but, yeah, i think a lot of people are expecting a little much out of him.

 

I would like to know why so many of you are expecting him to do so much worse next year.

I guess it is possible for him to put up a line of .337/.407/.526/.934 again next year while playing full time but I don't think it is very likely.

[Mark_R]

Am I alone in thinking that a full season of Murton next year would yield a 260/320/390 line?

 

That's why I'm very interested in what Murton could yield in a trade this offseason. Maybe for once, the Cubs could trade a prospect at his peak value.

 

 

I don't think the Cubs have ever traded a prospect at the peak of his value. I don't think the Cubs would dare to do it, either, because this organization is obsessed with the PR aspect of the game, and they'd be too terrified to give up another Willis, or Brock, or whatever.

 

I also think that a .275 line with a .350 or so OBP would be okay out of basically a rookie OF.

 

That said, if Murton and others nets you an impact, ready-to-win now player of similar age to ARam and Lee, then Hendry would be stupid to not do it, given who our manager is.

 

What about Hee Seop Choi? His value wasn't at its highest, but we got the maximized return on the prospect.

[abuck1220]

Am I alone in thinking that a full season of Murton next year would yield a 260/320/390 line?

 

i'd maybe give him a .270/.335/.400, but, yeah, i think a lot of people are expecting a little much out of him.

 

I would like to know why so many of you are expecting him to do so much worse next year.

 

because if he put up these #'s over the course of a full season, he'd contend for a batting title and be one of the top 20 hitters in major league baseball. maybe i've got a negative attitude, but i just don't see that happening.

 

i don't get too caught up in such a small sample size. unlike some others on here, i'm not ready to call him the next tony gwynn based on, what, 50 games? just like i'm not ready to write off rich hill or welly.

[LeftCoastCubFan]

Am I alone in thinking that a full season of Murton next year would yield a 260/320/390 line?

 

i'd maybe give him a .270/.335/.400, but, yeah, i think a lot of people are expecting a little much out of him.

 

I would like to know why so many of you are expecting him to do so much worse next year.

Over the last 6 years, an average of 12 left fielders a year hit for .800 OPS and above. The list includes players like Bonds, Alou, Ramirez, Lee, Berkman, Gonzalez; and this year players like Bay and Cabrera. Matt doesn't have the pedigree or the experience to expect those kind of numbers in what would essentialy be his rookie year. You would also have to expect it to take some time for him to develop a power stroke given his lack of power in the minors. So something in the .700 to .750 OPS would be a reasonable expectation.

 

But given the lack of production in left this year, the fact that the Cubs will consider themselves contenders for 2006, and about 30 mil to spend; it is unlikely the Cubs will wait a few years to develop a left fielder unless every other need is filled by chance.

 

Matt's performance earns him the right to compete for a spot on the roster, nothing more until he proves what he can do over the course of the season. He may not be in the right place at the right time here.

[burnt out cubbie fan]

The problem is, who else are you going to put into left field that would be a big enough improvement over him to ignore the longterm value that Matt provides? I think that all three of the outfield spots need to be replaced by next year but I don't see how we can get three outfielders, especially three that are better than Murton.

[CubinNY]

Am I alone in thinking that a full season of Murton next year would yield a 260/320/390 line?

 

i'd maybe give him a .270/.335/.400, but, yeah, i think a lot of people are expecting a little much out of him.

 

I would like to know why so many of you are expecting him to do so much worse next year.

 

because if he put up these #'s over the course of a full season, he'd contend for a batting title and be one of the top 20 hitters in major league baseball. maybe i've got a negative attitude, but i just don't see that happening.

 

i don't get too caught up in such a small sample size. unlike some others on here, i'm not ready to call him the next tony gwynn based on, what, 50 games? just like i'm not ready to write off rich hill or welly.

 

I appreciate your and others (Tree, Rocket, and IMB) temperance in regard to Murton. It is important to not get caught up too much in end of the season heroics.

 

Yet, from what I've seen Murton seems to understand is his limitations. He looks for pitches he can drive, and so far he hasn't missed many. Call it luck, call it small number of opportunites, however his approach at the plate hasn't seemed to change. With that approach and his hand speed he could be very productive. Probably not Tony Gwynn productive, but who is?. Nevertheless, there is is not much of difference between .330 and .280, less than an extra hit a week.

[katway]

Murton needs to be penciled into left next season because he is more of what this team needs -- a baseball player and not an "athlete with potential". He not only plays the game, but you can tell he thinks about the game and has an idea of what is needed in a particular game situation. This team needs all the baseball instincts it can get.

[frostwyrm]

i don't get too caught up in such a small sample size. unlike some others on here, i'm not ready to call him the next tony gwynn based on, what, 50 games? just like i'm not ready to write off rich hill or welly.

 

Guess who's to blame for the smallness of the sample size. Hendry should have Murton should start next year just to prevent Dusty from profiting by his misdeeds. If Murton doesn't start based on sample size then Dusty will know what he's gotten away with and it'll encourage him to keep pulling his usual tricks with other rookies.

[waffle]

The uncertainty with Murton is why we can't go into next season with him, Patterson, and Cedeno all in the same lineup. One is fine, two would be okay under the right circumstances, but all 3 would virtually guarantee a lack of improvement on offense.

 

Like Atlanta, right? With, what, 7 rookies?

 

Maybe it comes down to COACHING....

[Backtobanks]

He certainly should be penciled in as the starting LF next spring unless the Cubs trade for Manny. I don't see any reason why he can't have .280/.350/ 25 HR. If he does that, he will be a good corner OF with the chance to be an outstanding corner OF with more experience.

[TXCubsFan]

Murton needs to be penciled into left next season because he is more of what this team needs -- a baseball player and not an "athlete with potential". He not only plays the game, but you can tell he thinks about the game and has an idea of what is needed in a particular game situation. This team needs all the baseball instincts it can get.

 

Exactly! I'd say the same thing about Cedeno.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The uncertainty with Murton is why we can't go into next season with him, Patterson, and Cedeno all in the same lineup. One is fine, two would be okay under the right circumstances, but all 3 would virtually guarantee a lack of improvement on offense.

 

Like Atlanta, right? With, what, 7 rookies?

 

Maybe it comes down to COACHING....

 

Coaching, and the ability of the players as well.

[goonys evil twin]

IMO Murton is the player that Patterson could become. Aside from handedness and skin color they are very similar. Both have lightning quick hands and very good speed. Obviously, Patterson is a better outfielder.

 

If Corey could somehow forget that he thinks he is a power hitter and develops Murton's paitence they both could very productive players for many years to come.

 

Just for the record, I think Murton could be a .300 hitter next year, but .280 isn't bad either with his paitence.

 

I don't see it. Murton and Corey are nothing alike. Corey is blazing fast, Murton has good speed, but nothing special. Corey has true power hitter abilities. Corey uses a long swing, Murton is much more compact. Other than relative youth and the fact that they play in the OF, I don't see any comparison between the two. Corey will never have the patience of Murton, he could improve in that category, but he's always going to be a swing first type of player.

[cubweiser03]

For comparison im going to look no further than Michael Barrett. I dont see why he cant put up AT LEAST .280-.290/.340-.350 and hit 10 more homers than Michael next year in full time duty. In the few games ive watched Murton i see a lot of similarities (statistically speaking too).

[Derwood]

IMO Murton is the player that Patterson could become. Aside from handedness and skin color they are very similar. Both have lightning quick hands and very good speed. Obviously, Patterson is a better outfielder.

 

If Corey could somehow forget that he thinks he is a power hitter and develops Murton's paitence they both could very productive players for many years to come.

 

Just for the record, I think Murton could be a .300 hitter next year, but .280 isn't bad either with his paitence.

 

I don't see it. Murton and Corey are nothing alike.

 

Well Corey DOES have that shock of red hair...

[Magnetic Curses]

Murton needs to be penciled into left next season because he is more of what this team needs -- a baseball player and not an "athlete with potential". He not only plays the game, but you can tell he thinks about the game and has an idea of what is needed in a particular game situation. This team needs all the baseball instincts it can get.

 

Exactly! I'd say the same thing about Cedeno.

 

i agree with both of you. it appears that these players just know how to play without having to think too much. ballplayers, billy beane would call them.

 

i could live with murton in left and cedono getting siginificant time in the middle infield spots, preferably backing up nomar and walker.

 

murton also provides a cheap option that affords us the luxury of spending big in right field, centerfield, and getting another sp and reliever. i think the only possible way that we don't land giles is if giles simply does not want to play anywhere other than crappy southern california. we have the most money to spend and hendry knows that he has work to do.

[CubinNY]

IMO Murton is the player that Patterson could become. Aside from handedness and skin color they are very similar. Both have lightning quick hands and very good speed. Obviously, Patterson is a better outfielder.

 

If Corey could somehow forget that he thinks he is a power hitter and develops Murton's paitence they both could very productive players for many years to come.

 

Just for the record, I think Murton could be a .300 hitter next year, but .280 isn't bad either with his paitence.

 

I don't see it. Murton and Corey are nothing alike. Corey is blazing fast, Murton has good speed, but nothing special. Corey has true power hitter abilities. Corey uses a long swing, Murton is much more compact. Other than relative youth and the fact that they play in the OF, I don't see any comparison between the two. Corey will never have the patience of Murton, he could improve in that category, but he's always going to be a swing first type of player.

 

I don't think Corey is a true power hitter. I think he is a 15 -25 HR a year HR hitter. I think that is part of his problem and also the reason why I made the post. Murton's plate approach and swing is what Corey should aspire towards.

 

I'm not ready to give up on Patterson yet but he needs to drastically change his approach. I'm also not saying he can, but if he could I think Muton's would be the one to use. If he did so he could take atvantage of all his tools.

[YearofDaCubs]

For comparison im going to look no further than Michael Barrett. I dont see why he cant put up AT LEAST .280-.290/.340-.350 and hit 10 more homers than Michael next year in full time duty. In the few games ive watched Murton i see a lot of similarities (statistically speaking too).

Perfect example although I think Murton has a better eye than Barrett.

[TheDude]

i think the only possible way that we don't land giles is if giles simply does not want to play anywhere other than crappy southern california. we have the most money to spend and hendry knows that he has work to do.

If you have the kind of money Giles has, there is nothing crappy about Southern California. Also, his current team is likely to make the playoffs, while Chicago clearly isn't.

 

From a non-Cub-biased view, the Padres are already home, already a "contender", and probably will make a good offer. If he leaves SD for Chicago, there is a legitimate argument that can be made to say he goes only for more money (and not because he wants to win).