D-Lee MVP Odds

[XZero771679666304]

I'll go back to my last statement.

 

If a team finishes under .500 and 20ish games out of the division, how valuable can a player have been?

I know the stats are there. I know he's a great player. Player of the Year= Yes. MVP= No. I think the MVP should play on a playoff team unless the #s are so overwhealming you have to pick them. Lee/Pujols/Jones are all very close. Jones and Pujols will be in the playoffs. Lee won't. It's a 2 horse race at this point.

 

Oh, I've long since given up on the Lee for MVP front. But the precedent for great players winning the award on poor teams (a la Dawson) has been set, so the desparity between clubs records really doesn't mean that much.

 

I just think Pujols will get it because of the fact he has been overshadowed by Bonds in recent years. Lee would have really had to smoke him statistically to win it, IMO.

 

I just made that last post because the thoery that Wrigley is responsible for Lee being better this year doesn't hold an ounce of water.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

I think the whole park factor thing is overrated, for the most part. You looked at home runs, but a better overall indicator is that Lee has a 1.189 OPS at home and a 1.183 OPS on the road. Those are for all intents and purposes, identical. I also think the popular perception of Sammy Sosa was that he benefitted from Wrigley, though his overall and HR totals were just about dead even in his prime years. You already see that Aramis does not benefit much from Wrigley. And IIRC, several of the Marlins coaches said that Pro Player killed Derrek, and predicted 40+ HR from him outside of there. This makes sense since Lee's power is from alley to alley, and that is no man's land in Miami. In parks like that, only dead pull hitters will put up big numbers, and Derrek is not a dead pull hitter.

 

The whole notion that Wrigley is a hitters paradise is really not accurate at all. It favors the hitters slightly, but not nearly as much as some think. The reason for this, IMO, is that it is a park of extremes. I say that because while eveyone knows about the days the wind is howling out and homers are easy to come by, more often the wind is blowing stright in, and in about a third of the games (rough estimation based on watching for 20 years), you may as well be trying to hit a ball out of the Grand Canyon.

 

Some hitters have benefitted from the cozy alleys, but the 355 down the lines are no easy pokes. The bottom line is that while Wrigley will give you a lot of homers, it will take away a lot of them, also. Any players that do benefit are probably hitters with marginal power who plays there enough to mold his game to the field. Players who are great hitters with genuine power generally rise above the limitations or enhancements that a given field gives them

 

Now there are players who benefit from their home parks greatly. Take Morgan Ensberg, for example. While Morgan oocasionally gets XBH to other fields, he is an extreme pull hitter. This is a huge advantage in MMP.

Over the past three years, Ensberg's OPS has been nearly 300 points lower on the road. This year has been better, but there is still a 150+ point differential. His power numbers are also better than Pujols this year, but his you can attribute to park factors, unlike Lee.

 

Here's another indicator. I looked at the number of parks played in this year, and how each player fared OPS-wise overall. Since a 1.000 OPS is the mark of excellence, so to speak, I wanted to see how many parks Lee, Pujols and Ensberg managed to reach that number in, and which ones.

 

Pujols has played in 14 parks this year, and topped 1.000 in eight of them. He fared the best in Turner, Coors, Miller and Citizens Bank.

 

Lee has played in 13 parks this year, and topped 1.000 in 10 of them. He has performed the best in Pro Player, Busch, Great American, Miller, BOB and Dodger Stadium.

 

Ensberg has played in 13 parks this year, and topped 1.000 in 3 of them. He has fared well at MMP, Coors and Great American. Also, 17 of his 24 HR have been hit between those three hitters parks, and nowhere else has he hit more than 1.

 

This is based on only this year, but the three year splits bear out around the same level of consistancy for Lee and Pujols. and inconsistancy for Ensberg. Statistically speaking Lee is actually the most consistant of the three, independent of park, though not the most productive. Ensberg I used to illustrate a player who has their stats inflated by ballpark. Lee does not fall into this category at all. In fact, if you rate his performance by park over the past three years, Wrigley sits right in the middle of the 23 parks he has played in over that time The same can be said of Pujols and Busch, right in the middle, 11th of 20.

 

So from a relative performance standpoint, Pujols is no more consistant than Lee, and Lee is no more dependent on his home park than Albert.

 

 

I think I was one who posted it the first time and think this was your response. Stop it. :?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'll go back to my last statement.

 

If a team finishes under .500 and 20ish games out of the division, how valuable can a player have been?

I know the stats are there. I know he's a great player. Player of the Year= Yes. MVP= No. I think the MVP should play on a playoff team unless the #s are so overwhealming you have to pick them. Lee/Pujols/Jones are all very close. Jones and Pujols will be in the playoffs. Lee won't. It's a 2 horse race at this point.

 

I think value can still exist regardless of the value of the parts surrounding the player. He still has value, even if the over all goal of reaching the playoffs is not achieved.

 

How much worse would the Cubs have been if they hadn't had Lee? A lot. Wins in themselves are valuable and even if you use win shares, Lee has contributed to as many as Pujols. In fact, Lee's win shares likely make up a larger percentage of his team's win shares than Pujols since there are fewer of them to go around. So, in essence Lee has contributed to a larger percentage of his team's win shares thereby indicating he was more valuable to his team than Pujols has been to his. Am I reaching here? Yes.

 

Value is too nebulous a concept. I prefer to look at the numbers and let them define the value. And unless you stake your camp on RBI, Lee has Pujols in every other metric.

[JGalt73]

Pujols has had 118 ABs (58 RBI) with RISP, Lee has had 111 (60 RBI)...that's not a very significant difference (~6%) even without the total number of ABs are factored in. If you compare the rates of ABs with RISP to total ABs, then the rates are even closer...Pujols sees a RISP with 23.7% in his 497 total ABs, Lee at 22.6% in his 491 total ABs. That's a difference of 1.1%

 

Pujols has had significantly more ABs (~14%) with runners aboard...227 (82 RBI) to Lee's 195 (70 RBI). If Lee was projected with that production to 227 ABs...he would have 81.49 RBIs. Again, if the actual rates are compared instead of just the raw numbers, you have Pujols batting with a runner aboard in 45.7% of his 497 total ABs and Lee having a runner aboard in 39.7% or his 491 total ABs. That's a difference of 6%.

 

So, it appears to me anyway, that it's not the rates that runners are getting into scoring position ahead of Lee that's been his biggest problem...those are actually very comparable to Pujols'. It seems, looking at those percentages, that the overall team OBP is more influential to Lee's stats than the ability of runners to get into RISP ahead of him. The Cards have a .341 OBP, the Cubs a .328 OBP...that's a 4% difference that factors directly into the raw number of ABs, and thus RBI chances, that Lee will have this year.

 

Pujols has had a total of 376 runners on base in his PA's - 14th best in MLB - and plated 65 (.1729 RBI/runner).

 

Lee has had a total of 310 runners on base in his PA's and plated 55 (.1774 RBI/runner).

 

Neither rate of plating runners is running away with the league. Aramis Ramirez has been more efficient than either, as has So Taguchi. Eckstein's rate (264 runners leading to 46 RBI) bests Pujols.

[Chocolate Milk]

ESPN did a mock MVP ballot and Lee didn't even receive one vote.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2148069

[imb]

Hahhahahaha, it's too bad our garbage team wasted Lee's incredible season. Congratulations to Albert though, for finally winning the award.

 

Of course, Andruw might still sneak in and Terry Pendelton the award.

[ManEatingTarp]

Phil Rogers didn't vote for Lee?

 

:shock:

[EastonBlues22]

Pujols has had 118 ABs (58 RBI) with RISP, Lee has had 111 (60 RBI)...that's not a very significant difference (~6%) even without the total number of ABs are factored in. If you compare the rates of ABs with RISP to total ABs, then the rates are even closer...Pujols sees a RISP with 23.7% in his 497 total ABs, Lee at 22.6% in his 491 total ABs. That's a difference of 1.1%

 

Pujols has had significantly more ABs (~14%) with runners aboard...227 (82 RBI) to Lee's 195 (70 RBI). If Lee was projected with that production to 227 ABs...he would have 81.49 RBIs. Again, if the actual rates are compared instead of just the raw numbers, you have Pujols batting with a runner aboard in 45.7% of his 497 total ABs and Lee having a runner aboard in 39.7% or his 491 total ABs. That's a difference of 6%.

 

So, it appears to me anyway, that it's not the rates that runners are getting into scoring position ahead of Lee that's been his biggest problem...those are actually very comparable to Pujols'. It seems, looking at those percentages, that the overall team OBP is more influential to Lee's stats than the ability of runners to get into RISP ahead of him. The Cards have a .341 OBP, the Cubs a .328 OBP...that's a 4% difference that factors directly into the raw number of ABs, and thus RBI chances, that Lee will have this year.

 

Pujols has had a total of 376 runners on base in his PA's - 14th best in MLB - and plated 65 (.1729 RBI/runner).

 

Lee has had a total of 310 runners on base in his PA's and plated 55 (.1774 RBI/runner).

 

Neither rate of plating runners is running away with the league. Aramis Ramirez has been more efficient than either, as has So Taguchi. Eckstein's rate (264 runners leading to 46 RBI) bests Pujols.

Where the runner is counts a lot more than just if he is on base, as I noted earlier, for a lot of reasons. What are the rates/numbers for RISP?

[EastonBlues22]

Something I'm not personally holding against Lee, but that some voters might be, is his performance since the all-star break (unfortunately corresponding with his team's fall from contention). This area is also primarily why Jones is garnering support.

 

Pujols: 13 HR, 31 RBI, .321 AVG, .434 OBP, .667 SLG

Jones: 17 HR, 43 RBI, .274 AVG, .365 OBP, .628 SLG

Lee:12 HR, 22 RBI, .284 AVG, .382 OBP, .580 SLG

[JGalt73]

Where the runner is counts a lot more than just if he is on base, as I noted earlier, for a lot of reasons. What are the rates/numbers for RISP?

 

Pujols

# Runners while at bat at

1B 193

2B 118

3B 65

 

Lee

# Runners while at bat at

1B 145

2B 107

3B 58

[treebird]

Where the runner is counts a lot more than just if he is on base, as I noted earlier, for a lot of reasons. What are the rates/numbers for RISP?

 

Pujols

# Runners while at bat at

1B 193

2B 118

3B 65

 

Lee

# Runners while at bat at

 

1B 145

2B 107

3B 58

 

wtg jgalt

[EastonBlues22]

Where the runner is counts a lot more than just if he is on base, as I noted earlier, for a lot of reasons. What are the rates/numbers for RISP?

 

Pujols

# Runners while at bat at

1B 193

2B 118

3B 65

 

Lee

# Runners while at bat at

1B 145

2B 107

3B 58

So, the fact that the extra runners are much more likely to be at first base and out of scoring position skews the "runners aboard" statement...

 

That's not to say that the 10% disadvantage in runners at second and third (in scoring position) that Lee faces isn't important...it's just that when you include the 25% difference at first, it overstates the disadvantage that Lee is actually facing. There's a big difference between 10%, and the 18% overall disadvantage that the 376 and 310 numbers imply.

[JGalt73]

Where the runner is counts a lot more than just if he is on base, as I noted earlier, for a lot of reasons. What are the rates/numbers for RISP?

 

Pujols

# Runners while at bat at

1B 193

2B 118

3B 65

 

Lee

# Runners while at bat at

1B 145

2B 107

3B 58

So, the fact that the extra runners are much more likely to be at first base and out of scoring position skews the "runners aboard" statement...

 

That's not to say that the 10% disadvantage in runners at second and third (in scoring position) that Lee faces isn't important...it's just that when you include the 25% difference at first, it overstates the disadvantage that Lee is actually facing. There's a big difference between 10%, and the 18% overall disadvantage that the 376 and 310 numbers imply.

 

I guess we'll take back the 14 RBI's Albert got from AB's with a lone runner scoring from 1st!

 

Seriously this is a very close call, but Pujols' had more chances to score runners from every base and has scored them at a slighly worse rate.

[EastonBlues22]

Seriously this is a very close call, but Pujols' had more chances to score runners from every base and has scored them at a slighly worse rate.

And that could certainly have something to do with the better protection Lee has recieved from the #4 slot that I detailed in a previous post...

 

I agree with you, to this point, it's been very close. I'm not going to "cast my ballot" until the season is essentially over...by then Lee will either have resurged and cemented his case, or he will have faded his way out of the race. I don't see much of a chance to the race being as close as it is right now in another month. Someone will pull away from the pack.

[JGalt73]

Seriously this is a very close call, but Pujols' had more chances to score runners from every base and has scored them at a slighly worse rate.

And that could certainly have something to do with the better protection Lee has recieved from the #4 slot that I detailed in a previous post...

 

I agree with you, to this point, it's been very close. I'm not going to "cast my ballot" until the season is essentially over...by then Lee will either have resurged and cemented his case, or he will have faded his way out of the race. I don't see much of a chance to the race being as close as it is right now in another month. Someone will pull away from the pack.

 

There is no solid evidence that "protection" by a good player in the on deck circle has a positive effect on a batter's performance.

 

Bradbury

Grabiner

 

Let's just follow VORP (or the like) multiply, add, or subtract our own beliefs that winning or the value to the team are important and call it a day - at the end of the season. There is no longer a clearly superior player here like there was earlier in the year.

[ConstableRabbit]

I think this has pretty much been established, but how sad is it that this kind of debate won't be going on when the actual MVP discussion goes on... :?

[vaball]

Watch it go to Andruw Jones. If Pujols loses the MVP to Lee I will be upset, but Lee is deserving. If he loses it to Jones, that will be a travesty.

[ltb]

Watch it go to Andruw Jones. If Pujols loses the MVP to Lee I will be upset, but Lee is deserving. If he loses it to Jones, that will be a travesty.

 

but he's carried his team and hits lots of home runs!!! and they're CLUTCH!

[ConstableRabbit]

Watch it go to Andruw Jones. If Pujols loses the MVP to Lee I will be upset, but Lee is deserving. If he loses it to Jones, that will be a travesty.

 

Yeah, I didn't want it to sound like I was saying Pujols wasn't deserving... it's not like I'm going to cry about it if he wins. However.. this Jones discussion is ridiculous.

[UK1679666180]

If I was to guess, I'd say Jones is the fav. of the writers at this point, looking at his HR totals and his hyped defensive skills, Jones would likely get it and not deserve it.

 

I have no faith with those voting.

[rynesrevenge0206]

UPDATE:

 

D-Lee is now a 10-1 odd to win the MVP award.

 

Albert is now a 1-2 fav, with Andruw at 8-5.

 

Gimme a break.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

UPDATE:

 

D-Lee is now a 10-1 odd to win the MVP award.

 

Albert is now a 1-2 fav, with Andruw at 8-5.

 

Gimme a break.

 

Vegas is only representing what they believe to be the best route to go.

 

While I disagree that Pujols should be the MVP, I'll be clear to say I think he will be the MVP. I wouldn't put any money on Lee.

[Derwood]

UPDATE:

 

D-Lee is now a 10-1 odd to win the MVP award.

 

Albert is now a 1-2 fav, with Andruw at 8-5.

 

Gimme a break.

 

Aren't those odds also updated based on how many people have made bets? Meaning the more people that put their money on Jones, the better his "odds" are according to Vegas?

[Mike Aller]

UPDATE:

 

D-Lee is now a 10-1 odd to win the MVP award.

 

Albert is now a 1-2 fav, with Andruw at 8-5.

 

Gimme a break.

 

Aren't those odds also updated based on how many people have made bets? Meaning the more people that put their money on Jones, the better his "odds" are according to Vegas?

Yes. It is public opinion. It is based off of who the betting public thinks will win.

[TigerRules]

Guess Pujols won the MVP battle for today.

 

:(