D-Lee MVP Odds

[Catman61]

I think it's all about finishing hot, and being a crucial member of your team's success (unless you just have silly good numbers like Dawson or Bonds)

 

Lee started hot, cooling off:

 

APR: .419, 7, 28
MAY: .313, 9, 18
JUN: .407, 7, 19
JLY: .303, 9, 18
AUG: .284, 7, 11
SEP: .297, 2, 5

 

Jones, however:

 

APR: .239, 3, 12
MAY: .283, 9, 18
JUN: .317, 13, 26
JLY: .253, 7, 23
AUG: .272, 11, 29
SEP: .297, 6, 13

 

Bad batting average? Sure. But his RBI numbers have been awesome, especially since June.

OTOH, Jones has had the most RBI chances in the majors. Andruw has had 170 AB with RISP and 70 RBI, over 40 more than Pujols(128AB 64RBI) and over 50 more than Derrek Lee(117AB 62 RBI) In percentage terms, the difference is huge 33% more RBI chances than Pujols and a whopping 45% more than Lee.

 

Jones actually has the worst RISP avg(.224) on the Braves of any player with semi regular playing time (over 40 RISP AB)

[Derwood]

So you punish a guy for having better team mates than Lee? The fact is, Jones had more chances with RISP, and he cashed them in, giving him more RBI. While the MVP is an individual award in principal, it certainly takes others around you to get the numbers (runners on ahead of you to get RBI, people driving you in behind you to get runs, etc.)

 

And as far as most valuable, the Braves are in a very tight race for the division, and without Jones, would not likely be in 1st place. While the Cubs may be worse than 4th place without Lee, I would argue that right now, Jones' contribution to the Braves is of greater value than Lee's to the Cubs

[1wizard]

So you punish a guy for having better team mates than Lee? The fact is, Jones had more chances with RISP, and he cashed them in, giving him more RBI. While the MVP is an individual award in principal, it certainly takes others around you to get the numbers (runners on ahead of you to get RBI, people driving you in behind you to get runs, etc.)

 

And as far as most valuable, the Braves are in a very tight race for the division, and without Jones, would not likely be in 1st place. While the Cubs may be worse than 4th place without Lee, I would argue that right now, Jones' contribution to the Braves is of greater value than Lee's to the Cubs

 

That was and still might be the logic of the Cy Young discussion and also the logic why Pujols is not the MVP. If Clemens had the support that Carpenter had, then blah, blah, blah. As for the MVP race, Albert will probably be punished because his team has walked away with the division despite having better all around numbers than Jones. The same thing goes for Lee he will be punished for not being on a winning team. That is what makes the voting so complicated. At this point, I think that Lee or Albert have had the better all around year and one of them should win it.

 

The risp stat does not reflect who has the better teammates. And Jones RISP is very low for an MVP.

[1wizard]

I agree with most of what Ravitz writes about the MVP race this year. Yet, I think Lee should be a very close 2nd or win it. Yet, I am pulling for Albert for obvious reasons. Jones should finish no closer than 3rd.

 

The Fantasy Hot Sheet sponsored by USA TODAY/ Sports Weekly

NL MVP Breakdown

September 15, 2005

By Nate Ravitz

 

Since the amount of news in baseball is steadily dwindling as the season winds down, we'll use the Daily Dose over the next several days to break down awards races in each league. Today, the much-debated National League MVP race.

 

The top contenders

 

 

Albert Pujols

 

The case for: Pujols is the best player on the best team in baseball. He currently ranks second in batting average and on-base percentage but has a great chance of leading the league in both categories. He also leads the league in runs and ranks second in RBI and third in homers. His play is the biggest reason the Cardinals haven't missed a beat despite the lackluster contributions of Scott Rolen, Larry Walker and, to a lesser extent, Jim Edmonds.

 

The case against: There really isn't one, though he certainly isn't remotely close to the defender that Derrek Lee is.

 

 

Andruw Jones

 

The case for: Jones leads the league in homers and RBI, by a wide margin in both cases. He carried the team at times, especially in the middle third of the season when Chipper Jones was on the DL.

 

The case against: Perception that the Braces are a one-man team isn't really accurate. Both Marcus Giles and Rafael Furcal have recovered from slow starts to post outstanding seasons, and Jeff Francoeur has been a sensation in the last two months. Jones' batting average (.277) and on-base percentage (.359), while respectable, lag well below Albert Pujols and Derrek Lee. Although Jones has a lot of big hits late in games, he's hitting .225 with runners in scoring position and .266 with runners in scoring position and two outs.

 

 

Derrek Lee

 

The case for: Lee leads the NL in batting average and slugging percentage, ranks second in home runs and runs and is tied for seventh in RBI. He has played Gold Glove caliber defense at first base and has been the only consistent performer for the Cubs this season.

 

The case against: The Cubs are more than 20 games out of first place and far out of the wild card. Moreover, Lee's biggest advantage over Albert Pujols was batting average, and his lead in that category is shrinking by the day.

 

Honorable Mention

 

 

Miguel Cabrera - In his second full season, Cabrera has already hit more than 30 homers with 100+ runs and RBI, and he's likely to finish third in batting average. However, the Marlins have been a disappointment and Cabrera been only marginally better than teammate Carlos Delgado.

 

 

David Wright - While the Mets have faded from playoff contention, they would have been out of the race months ago if not for Wright, especially considering the disappointing seasons of Carlos Beltran, Mike Cameron, Mike Piazza and Doug Mientkiewicz. Wright is fifth in the league in batting average and has played in all but two games for a team that has battled injuries all year.

 

 

Morgan Ensberg - Although he's slowed down considerably, Ensberg is a big reason why the Astros have been able to stay in contention despite missing Lance Berkman early in the year and Jeff Bagwell for most of the year.

 

 

Carlos Delgado - He's having another brilliant season, especially when you consider that it's his first in the NL (no adjustment period here) and he's playing in a pitcher's park.

 

One Man's Ballot (which doesn't count for anything so don't get too excited):

 

1. Albert Pujols

 

2. Derrek Lee

 

3. Andruw Jones

 

4. Miguel Cabrera

 

5. Carlos Delgado

 

6. Bobby Abreu

 

7. Brian Giles

 

8. David Wright

 

9. Morgan Ensberg

 

10. Jeff Kent

 

Apologies to: Jason Bay, Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Lee (whose .336 OBP all but disqualifies him).

[JGalt73]

Didn't see this elsewhere, but another interesting MVP article on BP:

 

(Premium Content)

 

If you use value to your team as the gold standard and look at Wins Above a Replacement player (the math is included in the link)...

 

Lee contributes 20.0% of his team's offensive value.

 

Pujols contributes 11.8% of his team's offensive value.

 

Jones contributes 13.6% of his team's offensive value.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think it's funny how the case against Lee is that his team is bad, and that he's only better than everyone else by a lesser margin in one category.

[ConstableRabbit]

I think it's funny how the case against Lee is that his team is bad, and that he's only better than everyone else by a lesser margin in one category.

 

I just read an interesting article about this by Todd Jones, the Marlin reliever, writing for next week's The Sporting News. He was basically saying what we've been saying about Lee... that with a better team, he's a Triple Crown champ and the MVP, but because his supporting cast isn't that great, he's dominating in the category he has the most control over (albeit not total control), average, and close, but not dominant in more team-associated categories such as RBI and according to Jones, HR due to a lack of protection. It was shocking to see a major media publication note that Pujols and Jones have had more RBI opportunities.

[frostwyrm]

In a perfectly literal sense of the word "valuable", Lee can be said to have had his value reduced by having Perez and Patterson bat in front of him so much. He literally would have been more valuable to his team if his manager had put better batters in front of him. If I were voting I'd be inclined to spot Lee some handicap points for his manager.

[cubbieinexile]

Didn't see this elsewhere, but another interesting MVP article on BP:

 

(Premium Content)

 

If you use value to your team as the gold standard and look at Wins Above a Replacement player (the math is included in the link)...

 

Lee contributes 20.0% of his team's offensive value.

 

Pujols contributes 11.8% of his team's offensive value.

 

Jones contributes 13.6% of his team's offensive value.

 

That just means that Lee has worse teammates then the other two players. Put Lee on the Cardinals and he is not 20% of the value of team.

 

And by the way the 20% isn't just offensive but defensive as well.

[treebird]

Didn't see this elsewhere, but another interesting MVP article on BP:

 

(Premium Content)

 

If you use value to your team as the gold standard and look at Wins Above a Replacement player (the math is included in the link)...

 

Lee contributes 20.0% of his team's offensive value.

 

Pujols contributes 11.8% of his team's offensive value.

 

Jones contributes 13.6% of his team's offensive value.

 

That just means that Lee has worse teammates then the other two players. Put Lee on the Cardinals and he is not 20% of the value of team.

 

And by the way the 20% isn't just offensive but defensive as well.

 

the idea was just to show that even if you used the lame definition of valuable of "who has added the most to his team" d-lee still wins, even though his team is going nowhere.

[cubbieinexile]

He added the most simply because his teammates were bad. Which is just the flipside of giving the award to a player on a contending team.

 

I don't think people are using the "who added the most to his team" as a way of not arguing for DLee but as a way to argue for DLee. Nobody is saying that Andruw helps his team win more games. I think most people argue that Andruw's production is simply more important. Not saying I agree with any of it but to use the "the who added the most to his team" is a strawman argument.

[treebird]

He added the most simply because his teammates were bad. Which is just the flipside of giving the award to a player on a contending team.

 

I don't think people are using the "who added the most to his team" as a way of not arguing for DLee but as a way to argue for DLee. Nobody is saying that Andruw helps his team win more games. I think most people argue that Andruw's production is simply more important. Not saying I agree with any of it but to use the "the who added the most to his team" is a strawman argument.

 

people make the argument "where would this team be without this guy" all the time. that's exactly what this analysis looks at.

[cubbieinexile]

As Branch Rickey said to Ralph Kiner, we finished last with you, we can finish last without you.

 

If the point of that % measurement is to show where a team would be without a player then to me it has failed to show how important DLee is. Without DLee the cubs still don't make the playoffs or have a winning record. With Albert Pujols the Cards are a lot closer to the Astros and depending on where those lost 10 or so games are assigned to they might even be in second place. And as for Andruw Jones without his production they don't make the playoffs.

 

So to me showing % doesn't refute the argument of where would this team be without him. If anything it reinforces the importance of the production of great players on good teams in contention. For starters it will be almost impossible for them to have a high %, only Barry Bonds has managed to pull that off, and that if they do have a significant chunk of the % it means they had a huge impact on their teams winning and losing.

[Derwood]

I'm curious where these three rank in that old and busted stat, GWRBI. Anyone still keep track of that one?