Clemens,Carpenter, or Willis for Cy Young? (edit)

[Tito Landrum]

I guess its because TL and DD have maintained that the cut off for Carp is 100 pitches and 80 isn't 100. :P

[UK1679666180]

I can't believe LaRussa let him go thru the order 4 times, 91 thru 6 1/3 is way too much at this stage.

 

I completely agree, UK. There's just no reason for it, considering it's a meaningless game, the rosters are expanded (meaning there are plenty of pitchers available), Carpenter has already pitched alot this year, and the Cards had a 3-run lead heading into the 7th.

 

I was hoping that Larussa would have an expanation in the PD this morning, but I don't see anything. Maybe you and I are the only ones questioning it, but there's no justification, in my opinion.

 

Eh, I'm probably one of the most extreme as far as pulling pitchers if the outcome has already been decided. You've seen what I would do as far as skipping a start for Carpenter and Morris while pushing Suppan and Mulder starts back a couple of days at the end of the year in this final month. I don't think it would their progression going into the preseason, it's not all about rest (having him throw side-sessions as far as the workout schedule in-between starts would keep his skills sharp).

 

Also, I've been on record as bringing up a 12th pitcher at various points during the year to skip a start on two occasions for each of the 5 starters.

 

Nothing wrong with working a starter when you need to, but to do so just b/c it is a luxury is careless and a luxury you might not have for long.

[K-Town]

Neither Carpenter or Clemens are cruising to the finish line, are they? They've both looked pretty ordinary, lately.

[gus_dog]

Neither Carpenter or Clemens are cruising to the finish line, are they? They've both looked pretty ordinary, lately.

 

Look out....Willis might just swoop in there and take it!!

[K-Town]

Neither Carpenter or Clemens are cruising to the finish line, are they? They've both looked pretty ordinary, lately.

 

Look out....Willis might just swoop in there and take it!!

 

He's got a head start, just because of the "style points". Carpenter needs a good start, to put a lock on this thing. Otherwise, it's up in the air.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Willis definitely deserves some consideration.

 

Here are the stats:

 

ERA:

Clemens 1.89

Carpenter 2.42

Willis 2.48

 

Record:

Clemens 12-8

Carpenter 21-4

Willis 21-9

 

Based on those stats, it's a toss up right now. Clemens still has the better ERA, but if the voters value wins, then he doesn't have much chance. Willis equals Carpenter in wins, but has five more losses. His ERA is close enough to warrant consideration.

 

If looking at PR, Clemens still has the edge

Clemens 54

Carpenter 50

Willis 48

 

Once again, Willis trails Carpenter, but it's still incredibly close.

 

The final starts down the stretch likely will determine who of the three actually end up with the award. Two dominant starts by Willis could propel him to the lead in the minds of the voters.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Clemens has taken back a slight lead in VORP, and him and Carpenter both have a sizable lead in that category over Dontrelle.

[gus_dog]

I was actually kind of being tongue-in-cheek earlier, but now that I see the stats, Willis has to be given some serious consideration.

 

I really thought Carpenter had it pretty much locked up, and he still may, but, you can't really ignore Willis now.

 

I think you're right Vance - whomever excels down the stretch here might just take the trophy.

 

IMO, Carpenter will still win, but Cardinals being in cruise control hurts him. Willis is second, and Clemens (especially after his most recent performances) is the dark horse.

 

Remember, I'm just trying to predict what the writers will do - not sayin' who actually deserves it.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I think those that place higher value on RA and VORP will still vote for Clemens. I doubt that is a large group in the electorate, but Clemens has maintained a slight lead in the more sabermetric statistics.

 

Those that value wins, along with the more traditional metrics, at this point will likely vote for Carpenter. However, assume Carpenter finishes with the samw 21-4 record and Willis is able to get one or two more wins down the stretch. Also, it's not inconceivable that Willis could catch Carpneter in ERA as well.

 

Two things could happen here:

1. Willis could perform well enough to steal enough votes to win it himself.

2. Willis could take just enough of the votes from the "traditional" minded voters to give Clemens the lead.

 

As it stands now, I think Carpenter wins it. As far as my personal feelings, it's still too close to call. Clemens has lost the edge that I felt he held a month ago, but still leads in the categories that are most convincing to me. If I were a voting member and had to cast my vote today, I'd likely mark it in Clemens favor, but would waver back and forth before doing such.

[Tim]

The edge in innings pitched gives it to Carpenter over Clemens in my mind. And I think Carp's been better than Dontrelle this season when looking at the peripherals.

[K-Town]

I think those that place higher value on RA and VORP will still vote for Clemens. I doubt that is a large group in the electorate, but Clemens has maintained a slight lead in the more sabermetric statistics.

 

Those that value wins, along with the more traditional metrics, at this point will likely vote for Carpenter. However, assume Carpenter finishes with the samw 21-4 record and Willis is able to get one or two more wins down the stretch. Also, it's not inconceivable that Willis could catch Carpneter in ERA as well.

 

Two things could happen here:

1. Willis could perform well enough to steal enough votes to win it himself.

2. Willis could take just enough of the votes from the "traditional" minded voters to give Clemens the lead.

 

As it stands now, I think Carpenter wins it. As far as my personal feelings, it's still too close to call. Clemens has lost the edge that I felt he held a month ago, but still leads in the categories that are most convincing to me. If I were a voting member and had to cast my vote today, I'd likely mark it in Clemens favor, but would waver back and forth before doing such.

 

Carpenter led in pitching Win Shares, last time I checked, and Clemens' lead in VORP is minimal enough now that I don't think that even the VORP folks can justify voting for Clemens over Carpenter, given the 9 extra wins, and the 26 extra innings that Carpenter has pitched.

 

But, the season isn't over yet. If Carpenter stumbles, he's toast.

[indifferent]

I think those that place higher value on RA and VORP will still vote for Clemens. I doubt that is a large group in the electorate, but Clemens has maintained a slight lead in the more sabermetric statistics.

 

Those that value wins, along with the more traditional metrics, at this point will likely vote for Carpenter. However, assume Carpenter finishes with the samw 21-4 record and Willis is able to get one or two more wins down the stretch. Also, it's not inconceivable that Willis could catch Carpneter in ERA as well.

 

Two things could happen here:

1. Willis could perform well enough to steal enough votes to win it himself.

2. Willis could take just enough of the votes from the "traditional" minded voters to give Clemens the lead.

 

As it stands now, I think Carpenter wins it. As far as my personal feelings, it's still too close to call. Clemens has lost the edge that I felt he held a month ago, but still leads in the categories that are most convincing to me. If I were a voting member and had to cast my vote today, I'd likely mark it in Clemens favor, but would waver back and forth before doing such.

 

Carpenter led in pitching Win Shares, last time I checked, and Clemens' lead in VORP is minimal enough now that I don't think that even the VORP folks can justify voting for Clemens over Carpenter, given the 9 extra wins, and the 26 extra innings that Carpenter has pitched.

 

But, the season isn't over yet. If Carpenter stumbles, he's toast.

 

If Carpenter stumbles, we're toast.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Len picks Clemens as Cy Young. It has spoken, so it shall be. :D

 

Tough choice on Cy Young. Hard to overlook Clemens' ERA. I guess Clemens if I had to pick.

[wolf stansson]

Len picks Rocket eh? I wonder if anyone has asked Joe Buck. He'd probably be objective about it right?

[Chris]

Len picks Rocket eh? I wonder if anyone has asked Joe Buck. He'd probably be objective about it right?

 

You really think Len would pick Clemens only because Carpenter is in a Cardinal uniform?

[1908]

Len picks Rocket eh? I wonder if anyone has asked Joe Buck. He'd probably be objective about it right?

 

You really think Len would pick Clemens only because Carpenter is in a Cardinal uniform?

I don't know; there's a whole lot of Cubs history when it comes to the Kasper clan.

[Diffusion]

One really big factor for me in this Cy Young race is what happened last year, when Roger Clemens absolutely daylight robbery stole the Cy off Randy Johnson.

 

IP

Unit, 245.2

Clemens, 214.1

 

ERA

Unit, 2.60

Clemens, 2.98

 

H/9

Unit, 6.48

Clemens, 7.10

 

HR/9

Unit, 0.66

Clemens, 0.63

 

BB/9

Unit, 1.61

Clemens, 3.32

 

K/9

Unit, 10.62

Clemens, 9.15

 

Runs Prevented (above average)

Unit, 42.6

Clemens, 35.7

 

VORP

Unit, 69.3

Clemens, 61.3

 

Essentially the Unit was better, comfortably, in every single category there besides home runs allowed, in which they were in a virtual tie. He allowed less hits, less walks, more strikeouts, lower ERA, all the rate stats were better, and, to top it all, he pitched 30 more innings than Clemens! He was flat out by far the better pitcher in 2004.

 

Oh, and the Unit threw a perfect game.

 

And Clemens won it because...

 

W/L record

Unit, 16-14

Clemens, 18-4

 

...and because...

 

Diamondbacks, 51-111, 5th in NL West

Astros, 92-70, 2nd in NL Central, won WC

 

And now Clemens bleats about not getting run support in this year's Cy Young race.

 

I'll gladly consider Clemens for the Cy Young this year if he gives last year's Cy Young to its rightful winner.

 

Because Clemens deserves this year's award. But he doesn't deserve to win two in a row, so I'd rather he was hard done by and they gave it to Carpenter.

[Mike Aller]

Stats

Good point. Carpenter it is.

[imb]

two wrongs dont make a right.

[wolf stansson]

Len picks Rocket eh? I wonder if anyone has asked Joe Buck. He'd probably be objective about it right?

 

You really think Len would pick Clemens only because Carpenter is in a Cardinal uniform?

That was aimed more toward Joe Buck not Len. It was also a joke.

[Diffusion]

two wrongs dont make a right.

 

I know, but it's still better than giving Clemens back to back Cys.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Dontrelle with an excellent performance last night attempts to re-enter his name into the discussion.

 

Willis: 22-9; 2.44 ERA; 1.09 WHIP

Carpenter: 21-4; 2.42 ERA; 1.00 WHIP

[gus_dog]

Dontrelle with an excellent performance last night attempts to re-enter his name into the discussion.

 

Willis: 22-9; 2.44 ERA; 1.09 WHIP

Carpenter: 21-4; 2.42 ERA; 1.00 WHIP

 

He really is coming on strong. It's looking like the Marlins will finish out of the playoffs - and unfortunately, that may hurt him.

 

I think you have to give him consideration - to be fair.

 

Unrelated to this discussion - did you happen to notice he batted seventh last night? He went one for four.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

Dontrelle with an excellent performance last night attempts to re-enter his name into the discussion.

 

Willis: 22-9; 2.44 ERA; 1.09 WHIP

Carpenter: 21-4; 2.42 ERA; 1.00 WHIP

 

He really is coming on strong. It's looking like the Marlins will finish out of the playoffs - and unfortunately, that may hurt him.

 

I think you have to give him consideration - to be fair.

 

Unrelated to this discussion - did you happen to notice he batted seventh last night? He went one for four.

 

I think he's going to get more than just consideration. He's right on Carp's heels in many of the major categories. Plus, he's fighting for a playoff spot which should give him two more tough starts. Carp's already in, so I can see LaRussa giving him a lot of rest coming up.

[gus_dog]

I think the additional competition Willis is providing will split Clemens' votes, thereby cementing Carpenter's chances, don't you think?