Everyone who says Pujols should be the MVP..

[SAMMYWHO]

Way to be confident Vance. I'll take that to the bank right now or maybe Vegas? :idea:

[Lowblow]

The key difference between Pujols this year and Sosa in 1998 is that in '98, Sosa had 69 more RBI's than anyone else on his team. Is Albert likely to have more 70% more RBI's than the next guy on the Cardinals?

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

The Cardinals would still make the playoffs without Pujols... period. Yeah, he's a huge offensive threat, but so are Edmonds, Rolen (when healthy), Walker, etc. They have the firepower up and down their line up. Plus now they have the pitching to go with it.

 

The White Sox are last in the AL in hits (at least as of last week). They are winning by scraping through tough games to come out on top. That's what it takes to win, but eventually, talent has to take over. And that's where the Cardinals would slaughter them.

[mjohnson71]

The chance of D. Lee getting the MVP instead of Pujols will be close to nil if the Cubs end close to .500. Who was the last player to win MVP that came from a non-playoff team? I can't think of anyone.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The chance of D. Lee getting the MVP instead of Pujols will be close to nil if the Cubs end close to .500. Who was the last player to win MVP that came from a non-playoff team? I can't think of anyone.

 

Welcome to the Forum!

 

Weird fact. A Giant has one the last 5 NL MVP's(Bonds x4 and Kent).

 

To answer your question, A-Rod in 2003 for Texas.

[ManEatingTarp]

The chance of D. Lee getting the MVP instead of Pujols will be close to nil if the Cubs end close to .500. Who was the last player to win MVP that came from a non-playoff team? I can't think of anyone.

 

ARod?

[XZero771679666304]

The chance of D. Lee getting the MVP instead of Pujols will be close to nil if the Cubs end close to .500. Who was the last player to win MVP that came from a non-playoff team? I can't think of anyone.

 

ARod?

 

And didn't Dawson do it for the Cubs in the late 80's? 1987? Gah, I'm too tired to think straight.

 

Either way, if Lee finishes the season batting .350+ with 45 or more homers and over 120 RBI, I can't see how it would be anybody else.

[mjohnson71]

Thanks for the welcome and the information. I knew there were some MVPs on "average" teams; I just couldn't remember them fo the top of my head.

[dime]

it is kind of sad that lee is contending for the triple crown, but there's still debate on whether he deserves the award more than pujols.

 

dawson did win in 87, largely because he hit 49 homers. jack clark should have won the award instead.

[Podsednik22]

Offence isn't what matters in the playoffs and pitching is. The white sox are very good in one run games and supply just enough offence to win games. The teams that do the best in the playoffs are the teams with speed, pitching, and defense, all of which the sox have.

 

And with the whole mvp thing, without derrick lee's breakout season this year the cubs wouldn't be close to a race without him. This makes him the standout to win it. With the pitching injured at the beginning lee carried the cubs through the tuff times and it is paying off big time with everybody healthy. Now that the cubs have Gerut i think they should win the wild card, barring any season ending injuries, oh yeah, and nomar is coming back.

[SouthSideRyan]

Offence isn't what matters in the playoffs and pitching is. The white sox are very good in one run games and supply just enough offence to win games. The teams that do the best in the playoffs are the teams with speed, pitching, and defense, all of which the sox have.

 

 

The Yankees never had great defense or speed. The Angels won based on an offense that went insane in the playoff. The Red Sox had Manny Ramirez as a regular defender last year along with one speed threat, that being a guy that didn't start.

 

There is no set formula for winning in the playoffs, it's no different than the regular season, it's just like winning a longer regular season series.

[gus_dog]

The Sox have the most balanced pitching staff in the AL. Top to bottom, they have the most balance, IMO.

 

They will make the playoffs, and I think they have as good a shot as anybody. However, if a team gets hot like Boston did last year (and Florida the previous year) during the playoffs - it won't matter. Heck the Sox *could* be that team that gets hot.

[EastonBlues22]

it is kind of sad that lee is contending for the triple crown, but there's still debate on whether he deserves the award more than pujols.

I agree that it's sad that Lee isn't getting more appreciation for the amazing season he's having, but don't forget that Pujols is contending for the triple crown too.

 

BA: 1) Lee .373 2) Pujols .339

HR: 1) Lee 30 4) Pujols 24

RBI: 2) Lee 75 3) Pujols 73

 

Lee and Pujols are the only ones in either league who are in the top 5 in all three categories.

 

I think where the statistical contention comes from is that Pujols is pretty much exactly on pace for his career 162 game averages of .334, 41 HR, 130 RBI since his projections are .339, 42, 129. Lee, on the other hand, is playing so ludicrously beyond anything he's ever done before that it's much easier to expect him to cool off at some point. Lee's currently projected at .373, 53, 132. Those would best his career highs by .091, 21, and 34 respectively. I'm not saying it won't happen, after all the phrase career year exists for a reason, but I can understand why people would think it's less likely that Lee will keep up his pace than Pujols.

 

As for the "plays for a contending team" argument...I'm not really a proponent of it, but I do think it's something that often affects MVP voting. If the Cubs snatch a playoff birth, I think Lee wins it in a landslide (assuming he doesn't fall off the face of the earth between now and then). If they don't, then he better be destroying Pujols statistically because if they are even close, then his chances aren't very good.

[ltb]

it is kind of sad that lee is contending for the triple crown, but there's still debate on whether he deserves the award more than pujols.

I agree that it's sad that Lee isn't getting more appreciation for the amazing season he's having, but don't forget that Pujols is contending for the triple crown too.

 

BA: 1) Lee .373 2) Pujols .339

HR: 1) Lee 30 4) Pujols 24

RBI: 2) Lee 75 3) Pujols 73

 

well, i wouldn't say pujols is contending for the triple crown.

 

34 points of batting average is a lot to make up - i know the actual stats have been posted a few times, but i think lee would have to go into something like an 0 for 45 slump while pujols continued hitting at his current average to catch up to him. i will not argue that pujols will challenge lee for the home run lead (and both lees for the rbi total), but i think average is pretty much out of reach.

 

i could certainly be wrong, but i don't think pujols has more than a tiny chance at the batting title.

[ManEatingTarp]

it is kind of sad that lee is contending for the triple crown, but there's still debate on whether he deserves the award more than pujols.

I agree that it's sad that Lee isn't getting more appreciation for the amazing season he's having, but don't forget that Pujols is contending for the triple crown too.

 

BA: 1) Lee .373 2) Pujols .339

HR: 1) Lee 30 4) Pujols 24

RBI: 2) Lee 75 3) Pujols 73

 

well, i wouldn't say pujols is contending for the triple crown.

 

34 points of batting average is a lot to make up - i know the actual stats have been posted a few times, but i think lee would have to go into something like an 0 for 45 slump while pujols continued hitting at his current average to catch up to him. i will not argue that pujols will challenge lee for the home run lead (and both lees for the rbi total), but i think average is pretty much out of reach.

 

i could certainly be wrong, but i don't think pujols has more than a tiny chance at the batting title.

 

If Pujols ends up with 2 of the 3 categories, does that give him an edge in the MVP? What is an MVP? Does it go to the best player on the best team? Does it go to the player that throws a team on his back and keeps them in a race? Should Barry Bonds win it this year because he's shown how valuable he is through his absence?

I really don't care, because the only hardware I'm interested in is the World Series trophey...

[ltb]

it is kind of sad that lee is contending for the triple crown, but there's still debate on whether he deserves the award more than pujols.

I agree that it's sad that Lee isn't getting more appreciation for the amazing season he's having, but don't forget that Pujols is contending for the triple crown too.

 

BA: 1) Lee .373 2) Pujols .339

HR: 1) Lee 30 4) Pujols 24

RBI: 2) Lee 75 3) Pujols 73

 

well, i wouldn't say pujols is contending for the triple crown.

 

34 points of batting average is a lot to make up - i know the actual stats have been posted a few times, but i think lee would have to go into something like an 0 for 45 slump while pujols continued hitting at his current average to catch up to him. i will not argue that pujols will challenge lee for the home run lead (and both lees for the rbi total), but i think average is pretty much out of reach.

 

i could certainly be wrong, but i don't think pujols has more than a tiny chance at the batting title.

 

If Pujols ends up with 2 of the 3 categories, does that give him an edge in the MVP? What is an MVP? Does it go to the best player on the best team? Does it go to the player that throws a team on his back and keeps them in a race? Should Barry Bonds win it this year because he's shown how valuable he is through his absence?

I really don't care, because the only hardware I'm interested in is the World Series trophey...

 

if he ends up with 2 of the 3, i would not be surprised to see the mvp given to him.

[EastonBlues22]

it is kind of sad that lee is contending for the triple crown, but there's still debate on whether he deserves the award more than pujols.

I agree that it's sad that Lee isn't getting more appreciation for the amazing season he's having, but don't forget that Pujols is contending for the triple crown too.

 

BA: 1) Lee .373 2) Pujols .339

HR: 1) Lee 30 4) Pujols 24

RBI: 2) Lee 75 3) Pujols 73

 

well, i wouldn't say pujols is contending for the triple crown.

 

34 points of batting average is a lot to make up - i know the actual stats have been posted a few times, but i think lee would have to go into something like an 0 for 45 slump while pujols continued hitting at his current average to catch up to him. i will not argue that pujols will challenge lee for the home run lead (and both lees for the rbi total), but i think average is pretty much out of reach.

 

i could certainly be wrong, but i don't think pujols has more than a tiny chance at the batting title.

Well, let's put it like this:

 

If Lee gets up to the 595 ABs he's currently projected at, and he hits his career avg of .275 from here on out, then he'll finish with a .331 BA...which would be lower than Pujols career average.

 

When you cram the difference into the space of a few ABs, it seems unlikely...but when you protract it out over the rest of the season, it doesn't seem nearly as farfetched.

[TruffleShuffle]

Well, let's put it like this:

 

If Lee gets up to the 595 ABs he's currently projected at, and he hits his career avg of .275 from here on out, then he'll finish with a .331 BA...which would be lower than Pujols career average.

 

When you cram the difference into the space of a few ABs, it seems unlikely...but when you protract it out over the rest of the season, it doesn't seem nearly as farfetched.

 

But what exactly do you see in his performance that makes you think he'll hit his career average from here on out? He's 2-3 tonight and hasn't cooled off since the beginning of the season. At some point you have to say that this isn't a total fluke and that he's not going to just got back to his career average.

[ltb]

Well, let's put it like this:

 

If Lee gets up to the 595 ABs he's currently projected at, and he hits his career avg of .275 from here on out, then he'll finish with a .331 BA...which would be lower than Pujols career average.

 

When you cram the difference into the space of a few ABs, it seems unlikely...but when you protract it out over the rest of the season, it doesn't seem nearly as farfetched.

 

But what exactly do you see in his performance that makes you think he'll hit his career average from here on out? He's 2-3 tonight and hasn't cooled off since the beginning of the season. At some point you have to say that this isn't a total fluke and that he's not going to just got back to his career average.

 

yep, this pretty much covered what i was going to say. i highly doubt lee will regress to his career average before the end of this year.

[EastonBlues22]

Well, let's put it like this:

 

If Lee gets up to the 595 ABs he's currently projected at, and he hits his career avg of .275 from here on out, then he'll finish with a .331 BA...which would be lower than Pujols career average.

 

When you cram the difference into the space of a few ABs, it seems unlikely...but when you protract it out over the rest of the season, it doesn't seem nearly as farfetched.

 

But what exactly do you see in his performance that makes you think he'll hit his career average from here on out? He's 2-3 tonight and hasn't cooled off since the beginning of the season. At some point you have to say that this isn't a total fluke and that he's not going to just got back to his career average.

I never said that I expected him to, I was just pointing out that if he did, then he would finish at a point lower than Pujols career average.

 

Having said that...quite frankly I do expect him to regress at some point. I have trouble understanding how anyone could expect him to keep this up for an entire year. Are you telling me you think him batting his career average is less reasonable than him continuing to bat .370+?

 

Look at Rolen last year. Pre-All star break he batted .339...post-ASB he batted .276...pretty close to his career average of .284...and he ended up at .314. I know he was hurt for some of that time, but I think the point is that just because you play above yourself for several months doesn't mean you're guarranteed to keep doing it for just as many more.

 

Personally, I think Lee will bat somewhere close to .300 from here on out and win the batting title. If I had to pick one of the extremes, however, I would place money on him batting closer to .275 in the second half than .376 or whatever he's currently at.

[EastonBlues22]

Well, let's put it like this:

 

If Lee gets up to the 595 ABs he's currently projected at, and he hits his career avg of .275 from here on out, then he'll finish with a .331 BA...which would be lower than Pujols career average.

 

When you cram the difference into the space of a few ABs, it seems unlikely...but when you protract it out over the rest of the season, it doesn't seem nearly as farfetched.

 

But what exactly do you see in his performance that makes you think he'll hit his career average from here on out? He's 2-3 tonight and hasn't cooled off since the beginning of the season. At some point you have to say that this isn't a total fluke and that he's not going to just got back to his career average.

 

yep, this pretty much covered what i was going to say. i highly doubt lee will regress to his career average before the end of this year.

Just for clarification, I'm saying that Lee might bat at his career average in the second half...not that his current will average will drop to his career average during the second half. Now THAT I agree would be highly, highly unlikely.

[ltb]

Well, let's put it like this:

 

If Lee gets up to the 595 ABs he's currently projected at, and he hits his career avg of .275 from here on out, then he'll finish with a .331 BA...which would be lower than Pujols career average.

 

When you cram the difference into the space of a few ABs, it seems unlikely...but when you protract it out over the rest of the season, it doesn't seem nearly as farfetched.

 

But what exactly do you see in his performance that makes you think he'll hit his career average from here on out? He's 2-3 tonight and hasn't cooled off since the beginning of the season. At some point you have to say that this isn't a total fluke and that he's not going to just got back to his career average.

 

yep, this pretty much covered what i was going to say. i highly doubt lee will regress to his career average before the end of this year.

Just for clarification, I'm saying that Lee might bat at his career average in the second half...not that his current will average will drop to his career average during the second half. Now THAT I agree would be highly, highly unlikely.

 

right - i understood :)

 

i just don't think he'll hit even close to .275 from here on out. of course i expect regression, but nothing that extreme.

[XZero771679666304]

Well, let's put it like this:

 

If Lee gets up to the 595 ABs he's currently projected at, and he hits his career avg of .275 from here on out, then he'll finish with a .331 BA...which would be lower than Pujols career average.

 

When you cram the difference into the space of a few ABs, it seems unlikely...but when you protract it out over the rest of the season, it doesn't seem nearly as farfetched.

 

But what exactly do you see in his performance that makes you think he'll hit his career average from here on out? He's 2-3 tonight and hasn't cooled off since the beginning of the season. At some point you have to say that this isn't a total fluke and that he's not going to just got back to his career average.

 

yep, this pretty much covered what i was going to say. i highly doubt lee will regress to his career average before the end of this year.

Just for clarification, I'm saying that Lee might bat at his career average in the second half...not that his current will average will drop to his career average during the second half. Now THAT I agree would be highly, highly unlikely.

 

right - i understood :)

 

i just don't think he'll hit even close to .275 from here on out. of course i expect regression, but nothing that extreme.

 

No,Derrek made a fundamental change in his batting approach that has contibuted to his success this year. I think the days of Derrek being a .270 hitter are over. He won't hit .370 every year, but for the next few seasons, I'd be surprised if he didn't hit .300+.

[EastonBlues22]

No,Derrek made a fundamental change in his batting approach that has contibuted to his success this year. I think the days of Derrek being a .270 hitter are over. He won't hit .370 every year, but for the next few seasons, I'd be surprised if he didn't hit .300+.

I agree with you...the adjustment that Lee made was outstanding. There are a few other hitters this year who've closed some holes in their swings who have also taken their game to accompletely new level.

 

Still, eventually pitchers will figure out a way to limit the damage with adjustments of their own...or confidence will be lost for some reason...or an injury will nag and force a hitter to change their mechanics. Players always have some lows to go with their highs. Ichiro batted .266 though May and June over 222 ABs...who ever would have thought that was possible? Brian Roberts is batting .258 in July after three torrid months. It's just the nature of the game.

[XZero771679666304]

No,Derrek made a fundamental change in his batting approach that has contibuted to his success this year. I think the days of Derrek being a .270 hitter are over. He won't hit .370 every year, but for the next few seasons, I'd be surprised if he didn't hit .300+.

I agree with you...the adjustment that Lee made was outstanding. There are a few other hitters this year who've closed some holes in their swings who have also taken their game to accompletely new level.

 

Still, eventually pitchers will figure out a way to limit the damage with adjustments of their own...or confidence will be lost for some reason...or an injury will nag and force a hitter to change their mechanics. Players always have some lows to go with their highs. Ichiro batted .266 though May and June over 222 ABs...who ever would have thought that was possible? Brian Roberts is batting .258 in July after three torrid months. It's just the nature of the game.

 

Brian Roberts is not a physically gifted as Derrek Lee, and that does count for something.

 

But you can hope. The reality is that the chances of Albert catching Lee for the batting title are remote at best. Derrek had a torrid first half, and he is a second half player, and always has been. He has showed no signs of slowing down, and has a massive lead.