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Posted

OK, maybe I'm just dreaming and thinking that the Cubs' management realizes how badly the team sucks, but I'd like to see a lot of parts sold off for the future. Here's who goes and stays:

 

Staying

Zambrano

Prior

Mitre (most likely)

Williams

Novoa

Ohman

Wuertz

Lee

Cedeno

Barrett

Ramirez

 

We'll Talk

Dempster

Wood

Dubois

Walker

Hairston

Patterson

 

Sell

Remlinger

Rusch

Hollandsworth

Neifi

Burnitz

 

Sell if you can get anything for them

Maddux

Macias

Blanco

 

 

The first group is self-explanatory so I'll move on to the second...

 

We'll Talk

 

I really like what Dempster's done and it'd be nice to keep him next year - if the price is reasonable. If it's not, and he's asking too much, sell. Teams are always looking for bullpen help, and he could bring something in return.

 

I don't know what to do about Wood. When he's on, he's great. But he's so inconsistent, which combined with his injury history makes him not worth what the Cubs are paying him. If he's healthy at the trade deadline and pitching well, does it make sense to trade him? He could probably bring a lot in return.

 

I really like Walker and his approach at the plate. I'd be happy to see him back here next year, again at the right price. Two questions - does he even want to come back, and if so, how much money does he want? If he wants to leave or wants a ransom next year, sell. Otherwise, see if you can't work something out for next year.

 

Hairston has been OK this year, albeit not as good as expected. I really like him as a utility guy, but if a team is willing to give up some prospects of value for him, I'd be interested.

 

I have no idea what to do with Patterson. He has been so atrocious at the plate this year that I can't imagine the Cubs would fetch much of a return for him. Does it even make sense to sell so low? Might be better to hang onto him and just hope he figures something out somehow.

 

I'm worried that Dubois has a major weakness at the plate and the league may be figuring it out. Can the Cubs get much for him? If not, it's probably best to just hang onto him and hope he patches up whatever holes he has that make him so vulnerable at the plate.

 

 

Sell

 

Remlinger is struggling and might not bring much, but he does have decent peripherals and could be fairly effective if used properly. If the Cubs eat the rest of his contract this year (i.e., giving him to someone for free) he might bring a live armed prospect.

 

Rusch has been very solid with the Cubs and as a lefty starter, could bring a return. I like him, but would prefer to see guys like Williams in the rotation next year.

 

Hollandsworth could bring something as a solid lefty bat off the bench and fourth outfielder. Don't see him on the Cubs next year, so why keep him?

 

Can Burnitz be traded (contractually I mean - I really have no idea)? He'd be a good pickup for a team that wants a fourth OF or perhaps a starter if one of their guys gets hurt. He's been good enough this year to have some trade value for a 2-month rental.

 

Neifi might bring a marginal prospect as a solid defensive backup middle infielder. As poor as he is as a regular, he's better than your average backup middle infielder.

 

Sell if possible

 

You'd have to talk him into it, and even then, the option next year is a huge financial problem. Maybe a team like SD would be interested... but I tend to doubt it. Probably stuck with him.

 

Macias is worthless and I can't imagine a team giving up even a bag of used baseballs for him.

 

Blanco is overpaid and unless a team is in dire straits at catcher, I can't imagine any interest for him.

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Verified Member
Posted
i think dempster is a guy you want to keep. we've been hurting to find a closer for a while, and while i think people focus too much on that spot, it really is nice to have a guy you know can get the job done. if he keeps getting the job done, i wouldn't mind bringing him back next year if his demands are reasonable, and i'd like to think he wouldn't demand too much from the team that took a chance on him and paid for his rehab.
Posted
If we go through a fire sale, which I highly doubt...

 

Staying

Zambrano

Prior

Lee

Cedeno

Ramirez

 

The rest can go for the right price.

 

I agree, but most of the names on that list - Mitre, Novoa, Wuertz, etc. - have almost no value to a contending team. They aren't guys who are developed or consistent enough to be used in big spots down the stretch or in the playoffs. They have more value to the Cubs, who can hope that they'll develop, than they do to a team that needs guys who will produce over the last two months of the season.

 

As for Dempster, I agree that the Cubs should definitely try to resign him. Given the Cubs luck, he won't be loyal to them like Chris Carpenter was to the Cards - he'll probably ask for $10M per year or something.

Posted

I'd sell Mitre and Williams if you could get anything for them. Williams doesn't impress me at all. Even in his "good game" against Milwaukee he was hit extremely hard, with lots of deep outs. And he wasn't very good in his other start. I think he's a setup man with stamina. That being said, he's had some major league success, and that's what might make him valuable as trade bait. Same thing with Mitre.

 

I'd also trade Barrett or Cedeno in a heartbeat if they could find an upgrade at those positions. Barrett isn't good, and he's not going to get better. Cedeno has surprised the heck out of me, but I still don't see him as anything more than an average shortstop at best, and am somewhat skeptical of his ability to even be that (although I'm fairly confident he'll be better than Neifi).

 

Novoa and Ohman are also a dime a dozen and I wouldn't hesitate to put either of them in a deal.

 

Assuming this is a firesale and the team is giving up on 2005, I'd trade Walker if anybody wanted him. I like the guy, but don't see him as a future cornerstone. So if you could get young value for him, I would most certainly trade him. With Fontenot having a very solid season at AAA, Hairston more than capable of holding down the fort for a season or two, and guys like EPatt down the line, I'd be very willing to move Walker, and wouldn't even have to be blow away to make the deal.

Posted
I'd sell Mitre and Williams if you could get anything for them. Williams doesn't impress me at all. Even in his "good game" against Milwaukee he was hit extremely hard, with lots of deep outs. And he wasn't very good in his other start. I think he's a setup man with stamina. That being said, he's had some major league success, and that's what might make him valuable as trade bait. Same thing with Mitre.

 

My point is that I don't think there would be a whole lot of interest in these guys from contenders. I admit I've only seen Williams pitch once in the big leagues, but I can't get past his numbers from '03/'04. His ERA+ was better in both of those years than Dontrelle Willis, and they're the same age. Obviously he's slid back a bit this year, but either the first two years were a complete fluke, or he's on track to be an above-average major league pitcher.

 

I'd also trade Barrett or Cedeno in a heartbeat if they could find an upgrade at those positions. Barrett isn't good, and he's not going to get better. Cedeno has surprised the heck out of me, but I still don't see him as anything more than an average shortstop at best, and am somewhat skeptical of his ability to even be that (although I'm fairly confident he'll be better than Neifi).

 

Problem is, how do you find an upgrade? Catchers with any sort of offensive ability are not easy to come by. I'd like a guy with a better approach at the plate, but how many catchers will be on the market who are good hitters? Not too many. I don't see the point of selling off Cedeno, simply because no team that will be a buyer at the deadline wants an unproven 20 year old SS with hardly any major league experience.

 

Assuming this is a firesale and the team is giving up on 2005, I'd trade Walker if anybody wanted him. I like the guy, but don't see him as a future cornerstone. So if you could get young value for him, I would most certainly trade him. With Fontenot having a very solid season at AAA, Hairston more than capable of holding down the fort for a season or two, and guys like EPatt down the line, I'd be very willing to move Walker, and wouldn't even have to be blow away to make the deal.

 

I meant a firesale as in "give up on this year." I see what you're saying, but I think Walker is a steal for $2.5M this year. If he were willing to take a similar deal next year, I think he'd be a great value at the position. If he wants more or doesn't want to come back, then I agree, you could get a pretty good amount for him at the trade deadline. I don't see Fontenot or Richard Lewis as anything more than utility men in the majors, at best, which is why I wouldn't mind having Walker here next year as well.

Posted
The only guys on the ML roster with any real value to a "buy" team are:

 

Zambrano, Prior, Wood, Maddux, Lee, Ramirez, Dempster, Rusch, Walker

 

Z, Prior, Lee, and ARam are untouchable for all but the most ridiculous of scenarios, IMO.

 

Of the remainders, only Wood would bring back a real difference maker. We all know the issues with his no-trade, and his value is probably as low today as it's been at any non-DL point in his career. Maddux might land someone decent, but likely nothing special. Dempster doesn't have the closer's track record to justify a huge return and won't change that in 3 weeks (and if he did, we'd win enough games to hover around .500 and not trade him.) Rusch isn't much past average, and neither is Walker. Both could bring back a young-ish AAAA player or two.

 

So, maybe there's a firesale - but we've got few chips to get anything back with between now & July.

 

If we decide to look at '06, I think you play Cedeno (until Nomar comes back) and maybe even Fontenot. Give Dubois got enough ABs (and pretend he's selective) and maybe he can hit 20 homers; he could entice someone in the AL to bid. Patterson might be able to come around and play himself into having some value in the offseason - but no team in the race is going to want a guy who needs work.

 

Might as well call up Rich Hill (ideally in the rotation if Maddux were moved or Jerome Williams struggles - or when Wood gets hurt again.) I'd get JVB up and see if he can figure into the pen next year or not. Nobody else in Iowa figures to get a shot.

 

I wouldn't get too anxious with the West Tenn guys, other than to give them a look in AAA. If we're totally out of it and under the radar, maybe Pie, Murton, (maybe even Aardsma or Nolasco) can get a slight taste in September. No real reason to do that, though.

 

We aren't likely to get much in trades this season. See what you've got internal, and try to build some value for offseason trades.

 

They key to this is the closer we get to the deadline, the more value all of these guys will have.

 

I agree with your assessment.

 

??????????? N.M.H. fan ????????????????

Posted
I'd sell Mitre and Williams if you could get anything for them. Williams doesn't impress me at all. Even in his "good game" against Milwaukee he was hit extremely hard, with lots of deep outs. And he wasn't very good in his other start. I think he's a setup man with stamina. That being said, he's had some major league success, and that's what might make him valuable as trade bait. Same thing with Mitre.

 

I'd also trade Barrett or Cedeno in a heartbeat if they could find an upgrade at those positions. Barrett isn't good, and he's not going to get better. Cedeno has surprised the heck out of me, but I still don't see him as anything more than an average shortstop at best, and am somewhat skeptical of his ability to even be that (although I'm fairly confident he'll be better than Neifi).

 

Novoa and Ohman are also a dime a dozen and I wouldn't hesitate to put either of them in a deal.

 

Assuming this is a firesale and the team is giving up on 2005, I'd trade Walker if anybody wanted him. I like the guy, but don't see him as a future cornerstone. So if you could get young value for him, I would most certainly trade him. With Fontenot having a very solid season at AAA, Hairston more than capable of holding down the fort for a season or two, and guys like EPatt down the line, I'd be very willing to move Walker, and wouldn't even have to be blow away to make the deal.

 

I think you move Hairston before you move Walker. Walker can hit, something no one on this team can do. He seems like a leader too. To think that EPatt and especially Fontenot will pan out with the minor league success rate of the cubs, let alone replace one of the few decent batters on this team suprises me.

Posted

im pretty sure you could get more with Walker in a trade than Hairston. Plus, if we fire Baker, i say bring Hairston back and have him be the starting 2B in 06.

 

id definitely keep Dempster on the keep list. However, Hendry doesn't strike me as a GM that would do a fire sale so i doubt any of this is going to happen.

Posted

Unless Hendry is able to swing some miraculous deals, I don't see many scenarios where we get decent value in return. We have too many "I'll trade you my crap for your crap" players to work with. Just because we're willing to throw in 4-5 players for 1 good one doesn't make it something a good team wants to do.

 

The best chances we have of adding "real" talent to the team will likely all involve taking on additional salary that other teams can't afford and want to dump.

 

Hendry and the organization have made this bed over the last 2 years and unfortunately they now have to lie in it.

 

In my opinion, there isn't a single guy on this team that I would make untouchable - make all of them available and see what kind of offers you can get - perhaps someone will be desparate enough to significantly overpay for one of our "stars" like Prior, Zambrano, Ramirez or Lee. I certainly would not go out of my way to try to deal them, but I'd certainly entertain any and all offers.

 

The main problem I see is that unless Hendry and the organization change their offensive philosophies of how to put together a contending team, they're gonna go after the wrong guys and we'll be back in this same mess again next year.

 

What a crying shame the last couple seasons have been!

Posted
Because there's a chance that they'd accept a trade? Just because they have a no-trade clause doesn't mean they won't say yes when the right team approaches.
Posted
I'd sell Mitre and Williams if you could get anything for them. Williams doesn't impress me at all. Even in his "good game" against Milwaukee he was hit extremely hard, with lots of deep outs. And he wasn't very good in his other start. I think he's a setup man with stamina. That being said, he's had some major league success, and that's what might make him valuable as trade bait. Same thing with Mitre.

 

I'd also trade Barrett or Cedeno in a heartbeat if they could find an upgrade at those positions. Barrett isn't good, and he's not going to get better. Cedeno has surprised the heck out of me, but I still don't see him as anything more than an average shortstop at best, and am somewhat skeptical of his ability to even be that (although I'm fairly confident he'll be better than Neifi).

 

Novoa and Ohman are also a dime a dozen and I wouldn't hesitate to put either of them in a deal.

 

Assuming this is a firesale and the team is giving up on 2005, I'd trade Walker if anybody wanted him. I like the guy, but don't see him as a future cornerstone. So if you could get young value for him, I would most certainly trade him. With Fontenot having a very solid season at AAA, Hairston more than capable of holding down the fort for a season or two, and guys like EPatt down the line, I'd be very willing to move Walker, and wouldn't even have to be blow away to make the deal.

 

I'd take Williams over two Mitres. At least Jerome has more than one effective pitch, and has had sustained success (at least realative to Mitre's success). And with his low BAA, Jerome's problems doesn't seem to be alot of hard hit balls. I just don't see Mitre as being anything more than a streak pitcher, alternating between dominance and batting practice, depending on how good his sinker is. In all honesty, I think Sergio is in his last weeks as a Cub.

 

I too would trake Walker, perhaps to Texas if they still want him. I'd trade Cedeno, but only if Dusty remains. If Dusty is fired, I' d keep Perez and Holla. If not, I trade them too. I would trade Barrett if an upgrade is available.

 

In fact, I keep Lee, ARam, Z, Prior and the rest are eligible to go. Wood's value is low at the moment and he has a no trade, so his departure is highly unlikely. Same with Maddux. If this thing goes way south, just cut loose what you can, bring up some kids to prepare for 2006 and wait till the offseason.

Posted

A few points I'd like to make, and then I'll comment on our specific players.

 

1. Any player that is an impending FA or is overpaid for 2006 I'd move for next to nothing. Get what you can and hope for the best.

 

2. We have a lot of prospects that become Rule V eligible next year. We can't protect them all and getting more back only compounds the problem. I'd probably try to package some of those mid-range guys with a vet in order to get a top notch player.

 

Guys I Look to Move:

 

1. Jeromy Burnitz- He could be a decent pick-up for a team needing an outfielder. I want no part of his 2006 option, so I'd take whatever I could get for him. Also, moving Burnitz would force Dusty to give a longer look at Dubois.

 

2. Neifi Perez- Perez is bad as a fulltime player, but he could interest someone as a utility infielder. Trading him clears the way for Cedeno and allows Fontenot to get some time with the big club.

 

3. Todd Hollandsworth- Hollandsworth could be the ideal candidate for a team that needs a left handed bat for the bench.

 

4. Glendon Rusch- There are a number of teams that would have an interest in the versatile lefty.

 

5. Mike Remlinger- I'll take the best offer. If I'm selling, he's a goner.

 

6. Greg Maddux- He has a no trade clause, so you have to tread lightly here. If I'm Hendry, I approach Maddux about moving and even ask him to provide a list of where he'd like to go. If he's willing to go, I'll take what I could get. I'd likely try to send him to SD for Buroughs.

Posted
I'd sell Mitre and Williams if you could get anything for them. Williams doesn't impress me at all. Even in his "good game" against Milwaukee he was hit extremely hard, with lots of deep outs. And he wasn't very good in his other start. I think he's a setup man with stamina. That being said, he's had some major league success, and that's what might make him valuable as trade bait. Same thing with Mitre.

 

I'd also trade Barrett or Cedeno in a heartbeat if they could find an upgrade at those positions. Barrett isn't good, and he's not going to get better. Cedeno has surprised the heck out of me, but I still don't see him as anything more than an average shortstop at best, and am somewhat skeptical of his ability to even be that (although I'm fairly confident he'll be better than Neifi).

 

Williams is also only 23, is very inexpensive, has room to improve and as you said has already experienced success at the major league level. I think he's pitched well since coming over. He's only allowed 14 base runners in 16 innings. The home runs are what have been the problem. I think he can improve enough to avoid those a little better and be at least a solid, cheap 4-5 starter for a few years.

 

Barrett may not be "good" but he is at least league average at catcher in my opinion. We have no one in the system beating down the door to take his place, and even average catchers are often overpriced and hard to come by. Although he wasn't patient last year, when he wasn't hitting at the bottom of the order he was much more patient, and I think he will bring his numbers back up this year. His defense has improved this year and he has some pop. Again I just don't see where we would go at catcher next year that would be an upgrade at Barrett's cost.

 

Cedeno is a similar case. Has the last year and a half been a fluke and is he performing above his ceiling? I don't know but for a SS who has put up those numbers in AA at 21 and AAA at 22 and has looked competent in the bigs (at 22), I think I would err on the side of caution. Quality offensive shortstops are so difficult to find and the decent ones are overpriced. We really don't know what caused this increase in production. Apparently the scouts and organization saw something in 2003 that made them optimistic. Since then, he's performed very well. I don't think I want to take the chance that he's "figured it out" and watch him continue to perform somewhere else while we continue to search for a SS.

He's had the tools and for the last year and a half he's had the production.

Posted

 

6. Greg Maddux- He has a no trade clause, so you have to tread lightly here. If I'm Hendry, I approach Maddux about moving and even ask him to provide a list of where he'd like to go. If he's willing to go, I'll take what I could get. I'd likely try to send him to SD for Buroughs.

 

Where would you play Burroughs?

Posted

Burnitz - nobody wanted him this offseason. Wouldn't expect that to have changed much. He'd bring a AAAA body or two.

 

Perez - Ditto, and even less.

 

Hollandsworth - Ditto.

 

Rusch - Some value, but probably won't bring back more than a warm body. Why give up a potentially decent lefty reliever for what will probably be a bench warmer?

 

Remlinger - We would quite literally have to pay to move him. Would bring back somebody's second to last best prospect.

 

Maddux - the only one with decent value, but he's been so spotty lately that he's killing his value. A 6 inning pitcher with a 5 ERA? Meh, nobody's going to give up much for that.

 

So, trade all of them minus Maddux and we pick up some other team's Dubois, Wellemeyer and Macias.

 

The biggest trade of our season was Hawkins. Landing two potential big league pitchers, both under 25, for him was the best haul we'll see, I think.

 

Burnitz - You're probably right. But the Astros and Pirates did in fact want him in the offseason.

 

Perez - has more value than he did (sad, even after this horrid slump), but wouldn't net much by himself.

 

Hollandsworth - His recent hot streak has added value. You might be surprised what some teams may give for a potent LH bat off the bench.

 

Rusch you are wrong about. Two years in a row he has been above average in his duty as a starter. Combine him with a minor league arm and you can get some value for him.

 

Remmy and Maddux I agree with you about.

 

What you seem to be missing is that you can package these guys with each other or with minor leaguers to increase their value. We aren't going to get Dunn for any of these guys, but you are selling the Cubs trade bait short, on the whole.

Community Moderator
Posted
A few points I'd like to make, and then I'll comment on our specific players.

 

1. Any player that is an impending FA or is overpaid for 2006 I'd move for next to nothing. Get what you can and hope for the best.

 

2. We have a lot of prospects that become Rule V eligible next year. We can't protect them all and getting more back only compounds the problem. I'd probably try to package some of those mid-range guys with a vet in order to get a top notch player.

 

Guys I Look to Move:

 

1. Jeromy Burnitz- He could be a decent pick-up for a team needing an outfielder. I want no part of his 2006 option, so I'd take whatever I could get for him. Also, moving Burnitz would force Dusty to give a longer look at Dubois.

 

2. Neifi Perez- Perez is bad as a fulltime player, but he could interest someone as a utility infielder. Trading him clears the way for Cedeno and allows Fontenot to get some time with the big club.

 

3. Todd Hollandsworth- Hollandsworth could be the ideal candidate for a team that needs a left handed bat for the bench.

 

4. Glendon Rusch- There are a number of teams that would have an interest in the versatile lefty.

 

5. Mike Remlinger- I'll take the best offer. If I'm selling, he's a goner.

 

6. Greg Maddux- He has a no trade clause, so you have to tread lightly here. If I'm Hendry, I approach Maddux about moving and even ask him to provide a list of where he'd like to go. If he's willing to go, I'll take what I could get. I'd likely try to send him to SD for Buroughs.

 

Burnitz - nobody wanted him this offseason. Wouldn't expect that to have changed much. He'd bring a AAAA body or two.

 

Perez - Ditto, and even less.

 

Hollandsworth - Ditto.

 

Rusch - Some value, but probably won't bring back more than a warm body. Why give up a potentially decent lefty reliever for what will probably be a bench warmer?

 

Remlinger - We would quite literally have to pay to move him. Would bring back somebody's second to last best prospect.

 

Maddux - the only one with decent value, but he's been so spotty lately that he's killing his value. A 6 inning pitcher with a 5 ERA? Meh, nobody's going to give up much for that.

 

So, trade all of them minus Maddux and we pick up some other team's Dubois, Wellemeyer and Macias.

 

The biggest trade of our season was Hawkins. Landing two potential big league pitchers, both under 25, for him was the best haul we'll see, I think.

 

It's not like we gave up a whole lot to get these guys, so what we get in return isn't really that big a deal to me. However, I will say that several of these players could draw a "decent" return given their value as bench players.

 

Rusch is worth a good prospect, IMO. If we can get a half a dozen decent prospects that we can spin in a trade for something better, I'd be all for it.

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