Cubs Offseason Mega Thread

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Four SP would be surprising. Assuming they're trying to stay under the CBT, it pretty much guarantees they would go with Ramirez and Shaw in LF/RF.

I really think a 4th (if they do sign a 4th) would be a guy between $5M and  $10M. Maybe spend $70M on pitching. Someone like Civale, Sandoval, or Rea. I am sure there are others. That would leave $20M to $25M maybe. They can sign Grisham, Robert or Ward and then a cheap second bat. Depending on which guy they sign for $10-$14M that second bat could be Tyrone Taylor, Conforto, or some cheaper options like Grichik or someone else in that shopping aisle. 
An example of 13 bats on the team could be Busch, Hoerner, Swanson, Bregman, Amaya, Sanchez(or some other catcher who signs for $3M or less), Ramirez, PCA, Shaw, Alcantara, Grisham, Taylor, Arias or Triantos. 

Edited yesterday at 12:16 AM by Rcal10

[Nolo]

24 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Four SP would be surprising. Assuming they're trying to stay under the CBT, it pretty much guarantees they would go with Ramirez and Shaw in LF/RF.

Based on how Hawkins has been talking it sounds like Shaw/Ramirez is a guarantee in one of the corner spots. He could just be talking them up though.

Like I said you could snag something like Holmes, Taira, Peterson, and May for $60M and the rest on a cheaper catcher and corner OFer or whatever.

[Backtobanks]

Sign Taira ($72m/4 years), re-sign Suzuki ($105m/4 years), trade Shaw or Ramirez for Hancock, trade a package (Alcantara, Wicks, Wiggins, Kepley,???) for Ryan ($13 million), & re-sign Holmes ($54m/3 years).

Rotation additions: Ryan, Taira, Holmes, Hancock for slightly over $50 million   

Suzuki stays in RF.

LF: either Conforto/Shaw or Grichuk/Ramirez 

[mk49]

33 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Sign Taira ($72m/4 years), re-sign Suzuki ($105m/4 years), trade Shaw or Ramirez for Hancock, trade a package (Alcantara, Wicks, Wiggins, Kepley,???) for Ryan ($13 million), & re-sign Holmes ($54m/3 years).

Rotation additions: Ryan, Taira, Holmes, Hancock for slightly over $50 million   

Suzuki stays in RF.

LF: either Conforto/Shaw or Grichuk/Ramirez 

I agree, sign Taira and trade Shaw or Ramirez for Hancock,  But, 100% disagree about Ryan.  He could be a real nightmare.  I wouldn't trade Alcantara, based on how he's been playing in LIDOM, and also, we need outfielders, anyway.  Either way, more than likely, one of Shaw, Ramirez or Triantos will be traded.

They can have four SP's, like Sonny Gray, Taira, Peterson and Hancock. 

 

Edited yesterday at 01:22 AM by mk49

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I know the Mariners have good reason to trade a starter but I don't get the fascination with Hancock. The only thing he does well is limit walks

Edited yesterday at 01:43 AM by Tangled Up in Plaid

[Rcal10]

43 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I know the Mariners have good reason to trade a starter but I don't get the fascination with Hancock. The only thing he does well is limit walks

4 years of control, had a solid season and comes with some pedigree. 6th pick in the draft. A play to get a guy about to breakout. 🤷

[mk49]

55 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I know the Mariners have good reason to trade a starter but I don't get the fascination with Hancock. The only thing he does well is limit walks

Yeah, a while back, I looked at the Mariners SP's' stats, and Hancock looked pretty good (walk, GB%....)  Most of all, he has 4 years of control, like Rcal said, and won't cost much to get, comparing to their other SP's.

Edited yesterday at 02:24 AM by mk49

[chibears55]

Kopech will be throwing Saturday for teams as hes looking for a return from knee injury.

Hed be a good sign if healthy 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7753742/2026/11/11/mlb-free-agent-starting-pitching-bargins-sonny-gray-dustin-may/

Eno likes Gray, May, Taira, and Sandoval

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I know the Mariners have good reason to trade a starter but I don't get the fascination with Hancock. The only thing he does well is limit walks

Hancock is screaming for a kick change. Like screaming for one. He has a 99% active spin rate on his changeup and he needs a way to kill that spin. It's not a good pitch and why he dumped it. 

The Cubs, and Tyler Zombro, love a low arm slot pitcher and they love teaching a kick change to guys with active spin in this range. They added this to Taillons rep and Cafe Hortons rep to huge effect. 

The fastball is pretty good as a foundation. I don't think Hancock is going to turn into a too-line guy, but if you can get him with a kick change I think he's a very viable mid-rotation guy. And I like him from an organizational fit. 

[Rcal10]

28 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Kopech will be throwing Saturday for teams as hes looking for a return from knee injury.

Hed be a good sign if healthy 

Honestly, even healthy Kopech is just another relief pitcher. Capable of being very good, but also someone who could not be so great. No different than anyone the Cubs already have. I would be fine adding him cheaply. But I don’t think he is someone much different than any pen arms the Cubs already have. 

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Four SP would be surprising. Assuming they're trying to stay under the CBT, it pretty much guarantees they would go with Ramirez and Shaw in LF/RF.

Thing is this team is filled with expensive players and they could use more young surplus value talent that enables them to get more guys like Bregman, Seiya, even a Skubal

If Brown or Horton were healthy that would go a long way.   Savings can come from Shaw/Ramirez.  I like them on the infield and as supersubs but do they have enough power to keep them in corner OF/DH?

We're losing a lot of HR with Seiya, Happ, Kelly in FA

[Backtobanks]

12 hours ago, mk49 said:

I agree, sign Taira and trade Shaw or Ramirez for Hancock,  But, 100% disagree about Ryan.  He could be a real nightmare.  I wouldn't trade Alcantara, based on how he's been playing in LIDOM, and also, we need outfielders, anyway.  Either way, more than likely, one of Shaw, Ramirez or Triantos will be traded.

They can have four SP's, like Sonny Gray, Taira, Peterson and Hancock. 

 

Ryan has been and continues to be an ace. 111 ERA+ over 6 seasons and 4.9 K/BB ratio.  Salary will be about $13 million in 2027.

[mul21]

19 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Ryan has been and continues to be an ace. 111 ERA+ over 6 seasons and 4.9 K/BB ratio.  Salary will be about $13 million in 2027.

And a shoulder held together with duct tape and chicken wire.  No thanks.

[Rcal10]

27 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Ryan has been and continues to be an ace. 111 ERA+ over 6 seasons and 4.9 K/BB ratio.  Salary will be about $13 million in 2027.

 

7 minutes ago, mul21 said:

And a shoulder held together with duct tape and chicken wire.  No thanks.

Added to that is he has one year left on his contract. And a year we have no idea how many games are going to be played. Also, the word “ace” is being thrown around pretty loosely here. Over the last 5 years Ryan has averaged around 150 innings a year. Hard to call that an ace. Trading for him is a very short sided decision for ‘27 only. It just doesn’t make sense. 

[Bertz]

The last three years Joe Ryan has a  3.59 ERA with peripherals to match.  That is good certainly but we're really stretching the definition of an "Ace" if that's what we're calling one.  

[Nolo]

I feel like the Cubs, Padres, and White Sox are all going to be in the conversation with most of the same starting pitchers.

That said, I am not a huge fan of Brewers sloppy seconds, and this take is probably unpopular but I'd like Dustin May as an option, as long as he's a backend of rotation guy.

On paper, the ERA isn't great, but the stuff seems to be coming back. Sinker up to 96.6 (up 2 mph from 2025) and four-seam/cutter both up, and a 111 Stuff+ that’s better than anything in the mid-tier. 42% overall GB rate which isn't bad.

The second-half fade in Milwaukee was a lefty problem: his breaking ball got crushed by LHH, and he never found a third pitch to them. That’s the kind of fix Hottovy’s group has pulled off before. At 2/30 or 2/25 he's the kind of guy I'd take a chance on but wouldn't expect the world from. I wouldn’t go three years, but on two he’s the best stuff-per-dollar buy on the board IMO.

Edited 13 hours ago by Nolo

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Nolo said:

I feel like the Cubs, Padres, and White Sox are all going to be in the conversation with most of the same starting pitchers.

That said, I am not a huge fan of Brewers sloppy seconds, and this take is probably unpopular but I'd like Dustin May as an option.

On paper, the ERA isn't great, but the stuff came back. Sinker up to 96.6 (up 2 mph from 2025) and four-seam/cutter both up, and a 111 Stuff+ that’s better than anything in the mid-tier. 42% overall GB rate which isn't bad.

The second-half fade in Milwaukee was a lefty problem: his breaking ball got crushed by LHH, and he never found a third pitch to them. That’s the kind of fix Hottovy’s group has pulled off before. At 2/30M he's the kind of guy I'd take a chance on. I wouldn’t go three years, but on two he’s the best stuff-per-dollar buy on the board IMO.

I'm very out on Dustin May. His peripherals in St. Louis were hiding issues and his release point is a consistent mess. Say what you want about the Dodgers and Brewers (and I'll admit I've soured on the Dodgers' pitching development recently) but those teams usually get plaudits with pitching. Neither org could solve his release point issue. 

If you can solve it you can convince me he's good money. That's a tricky solve and there are better options in that area that don't have "other good orgs couldn't fix him" in the  "cons".

[Nolo]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I'm very out on Dustin May. His peripherals in St. Louis were hiding issues and his release point is a consistent mess. Say what you want about the Dodgers and Brewers (and I'll admit I've soured on the Dodgers' pitching development recently) but those teams usually get plaudits with pitching. Neither org could solve his release point issue. 

If you can solve it you can convince me he's good money. That's a tricky solve and there are better options in that area that don't have "other good orgs couldn't fix him" in the  "cons".

Fair, and that’s why I’d do 2Y and backend (#4 or #5), not 3Y and mid-rotation. But I’d push back on the release point thing, his BB% dropped to 8.1 and chase went up in 2026, so if the slot’s inconsistent it’s hurting the sweeper, not his command. That’s a pitch-design problem. And as far as other orgs not being able to fix him - LA had him on the IL for most of three years and MIL had him for ten weeks in a pennant race. Neither was a real development window. If the price is 2/$25M I’m still in; if it’s 3 years, or more than 30M total contract value, then I’m with you.

But yeah the whole perma-injured thing for multiple years is a red flag in itself. We have enough of those guys on the club. That will also be priced in to his contract with most clubs I'd hope.

[Derwood]

I hope they cancel the season because it being November and the Cubs loudly declaring "we're out on everyone" makes me want to jump off a bridge

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, Nolo said:

Fair, and that’s why I’d do 2Y and backend (#4 or #5), not 3Y and mid-rotation. But I’d push back on the release point thing, his BB% dropped to 8.1 and chase went up in 2026, so if the slot’s inconsistent it’s hurting the sweeper, not his command. That’s a pitch-design problem. And as far as other orgs not being able to fix him - LA had him on the IL for most of three years and MIL had him for ten weeks in a pennant race. Neither was a real development window. If the price is 2/$25M I’m still in; if it’s 3 years, or more than 30M total contract value, then I’m with you.

But yeah the whole perma-injured thing for multiple years is a red flag in itself. We have enough of those guys on the club. That will also be priced in to his contract with most clubs I'd hope.

It's not. It's 100% a release point issue. He's in the bottom 10% of baseball for release point consistency. When the release point remains consistent he's good. When it wains, he's horrible. And the Dodgers and Brewers have no had any ability to fix this. 

Brendan Miller has some great visuals on it that he shared with me elsewhere. I don't feel it's my place to share them here; they're his, but trust me when I tell you this; this is the root cause of everything. And it has been a consistent point of issue for him.

If you want to be the org to try? Be my guest. But the Dustin May experience is a roller coaster of frustration. And someone else can ride it. I think there are better gambles in that price range (like give me Taira over May every single day and twice on Sunday). Or players who fit your team better in that price range (David Peterson). 

In other words:

[Nolo]

6 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

It's not. It's 100% a release point issue. He's in the bottom 10% of baseball for release point consistency. When the release point remains consistent he's good. When it wains, he's horrible. And the Dodgers and Brewers have no had any ability to fix this. 

Brendan Miller has some great visuals on it that he shared with me elsewhere. I don't feel it's my place to share them here; they're his, but trust me when I tell you this; this is the root cause of everything. And it has been a consistent point of issue for him.

If you want to be the org to try? Be my guest. But the Dustin May experience is a roller coaster of frustration. And someone else can ride it. I think there are better gambles in that price range (like give me Taira over May every single day and twice on Sunday). Or players who fit your team better in that price range (David Peterson). 

In other words:

I'll look into the visuals from Brendan Miller. Respect your points. I mean if its Taira/Peterson or May give me the former two every day as well. A few comments ago I was suggesting Holmes, Taira, Peterson, and May for $60M AAV and $190M total contract value for the four. But I can see how May would be someone you'd want to pass on.

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, Nolo said:

Fair, and that’s why I’d do 2Y and backend (#4 or #5), not 3Y and mid-rotation. But I’d push back on the release point thing, his BB% dropped to 8.1 and chase went up in 2026, so if the slot’s inconsistent it’s hurting the sweeper, not his command. That’s a pitch-design problem. And as far as other orgs not being able to fix him - LA had him on the IL for most of three years and MIL had him for ten weeks in a pennant race. Neither was a real development window. If the price is 2/$25M I’m still in; if it’s 3 years, or more than 30M total contract value, then I’m with you.

But yeah the whole perma-injured thing for multiple years is a red flag in itself. We have enough of those guys on the club. That will also be priced in to his contract with most clubs I'd hope.

I doubt he is 2/$25M anyway. I think he will be in the $14M- $16M range and might even get 3 years. After reading Jason’s report on him, I hope it isn’t with the Cubs. But someone will pay him. 

[Nolo]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

I doubt he is 2/$25M anyway. I think he will be in the $14M- $16M range and might even get 3 years. After reading Jason’s report on him, I hope it isn’t with the Cubs. But someone will pay him. 

I bet 2/30 is the absolute max he gets.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Nolo said:

I'll look into the visuals from Brendan Miller. Respect your points. I mean if its Taira/Peterson or May give me the former two every day as well. A few comments ago I was suggesting Holmes, Taira, Peterson, and May for $60M AAV and $190M total contract value for the four. But I can see how May would be someone you'd want to pass on.

I wouldn't grab all four of those and I think you're hitting a point of a bit of redundancy. Justin Steele, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett and Javier Assad can all fill in the rotation on Day 1 in some fashion. All are a bit of a gamble, but I don't think spending $15m to push all of them to the BP is smart money. 

Instead I'd spend on three "definites" in the rotation and then add a fourth "swing" type at a "swing" price. Save the money for a DH or a better hitter. You'll probably reap more benefit.