Cubs Offseason Mega Thread

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Didn't see it mentioned, PCA obviously won his 2nd GG. Bregman as well. Ian Happ finally lost.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Of Taira is in that price level he works as well. There are a lot of guys they can go with as a 3rd pitcher. But Soroka’s baseball savant page has a lot of red. 

I wonder how many SP they try to acquire this winter.  They have 5 key SP who are FA, plus Civale and possibly Rea.

Right now we have a lot of high risk,  high reward types.  Cabrera, Brown, Steele.  You can't really pencil any of these guys in.  Garrett will be in the mix, and of course Assad.

I think they should try to acquire 4 key SP, then let the others mentioned plus 1 or 2 depth types compete for a spot, cover for injuries, and/or slide into the pen.

Resigning 4 of the 5 guys we're losing would cost about 60m.  Plus we're losing Seiya. Happ, and Kelly....plus Conforto.  That's a lot of talent leaving.  Jed has his work cut out for him.   Trades and/or sneaky signings seem inevitable.

[chibears55]

So what happens with the Japanese bidding after December 1st? 

It 45 days, are they still able to be bidded on or put on hold

[Bertz]

12 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

So what happens with the Japanese bidding after December 1st? 

It 45 days, are they still able to be bidded on or put on hold

It's put on hold, we signed Seiya about a week after the lockout for instance.

That said these postings all happening so early is likely a sign they want to get done befofe the lockout.  The last few years guys have been posting closer yo Thanksgiving.

[Jason Ross]

22 minutes ago, Bertz said:

It's put on hold, we signed Seiya about a week after the lockout for instance.

That said these postings all happening so early is likely a sign they want to get done befofe the lockout.  The last few years guys have been posting closer yo Thanksgiving.

Funny you posted this because I was just coming on with updates. There will be no pausing of NPB deadlines this year. If they are posted before Dec 1st they will have to sign this month.

Link the The Athletic article

Quote

This time, the league is keeping its agreement with NPB intact, effectively requiring posted Japanese players to sign before the lockout begins, people briefed on the matter told The Athletic on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

 

[Nolo]

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Funny you posted this because I was just coming on with updates. There will be no pausing of NPB deadlines this year. If they are posted before Dec 1st they will have to sign this month.

Link the The Athletic article

 

That's a great change.  I don't think either guy is "hold up the rest of the offseason" good but anything to give GMs less reason to artificially wait around.

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, Bertz said:

That's a great change.  I don't think either guy is "hold up the rest of the offseason" good but anything to give GMs less reason to artificially wait around.

Anything that guarantees there will be action in November with FA is a positive, as far as I am concerned. At least by the lockout we will know if the Cubs have Taira or not. 

[macarthur31]

 

 

How I'm interpreting this:  Team Boras turning up the heat in hopes of getting Skubal deal done before lockout.  Cubs may be in this, but more as a "call us at the last second, and maybe we can work something out" type energy.  I'm not mad at that, just tempering my hopes in Jed going against type and going "all-in" before the flop.

[Bertz]

These numbers feel really low.  But if this is what the market actually looks like:

- You 1000% need to sign Skubal

- No way in hell can you QO Happ or Boyd

- Probably plan on signing 4 or even 5 pitchers

- I'd totally bring Carson Kelly back

 

[Jason Ross]

17 minutes ago, macarthur31 said:

 

 

How I'm interpreting this:  Team Boras turning up the heat in hopes of getting Skubal deal done before lockout.  Cubs may be in this, but more as a "call us at the last second, and maybe we can work something out" type energy.  I'm not mad at that, just tempering my hopes in Jed going against type and going "all-in" before the flop.

I don't take it that way. I think we are inclined to take it that way because as you said, we are tempering our expectations but there's one thing the Cubs do; they tend to end up with the guys they get connected with. Sometimes it takes time, but they end up with them a lot of the time (I.e. Bregman, Cabrera). This is a bit of a different situation in that Skubal is in another tier but we have heard rumblings this team is in on Skubal since the deadline. When they're out on someone (ex. Juan Soto's free agency) we hear it right away. We aren't hearing that with Skubal. 

Will they get him? No idea that's a tall order. But we have heard at the deadline they wanted him and particularly because they wanted to partially sell him on the team. Sharma mentioned him. I've heard from some people who have connections they like him. I think their interest is real. And beyond "he will give us a sweetheart deal". They know the assignment. 

[macarthur31]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I don't take it that way. I think we are inclined to take it that way because as you said, we are tempering our expectations but there's one thing the Cubs do; they tend to end up with the guys they get connected with. Sometimes it takes time, but they end up with them a lot of the time (I.e. Bregman, Cabrera). This is a bit of a different situation in that Skubal is in another tier but we have heard rumblings this team is in on Skubal since the deadline. When they're out on someone (ex. Juan Soto's free agency) we hear it right away. We aren't hearing that with Skubal. 

Will they get him? No idea that's a tall order. But we have heard at the deadline they wanted him and particularly because they wanted to partially sell him on the team. Sharma mentioned him. I've heard from some people who have connections they like him. I think their interest is real. And beyond "he will give us a sweetheart deal". They know the assignment. 

Fair point, Jason.  In this case of Skubal, there appears to be stated mutual interest, Boras has had a positive working relationship with Hoyer, and given that Jed utilized the deferred money option with Bregman - that's at his disposal as well. 

If Skubal isn't a Cub, cue up cries and wails of how "Jed can't close," but to your point, Jason, I expect Hoyer will put up a very good proposal for Skubal and that it's really on whether or not Skubal desires to wear Cubbie blue.

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

 

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Edited 7 hours ago by chibears55

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Funny you posted this because I was just coming on with updates. There will be no pausing of NPB deadlines this year. If they are posted before Dec 1st they will have to sign this month.

Link the The Athletic article

 

Good, hopefully the Cubs can add at least one SP from this group. 

 

[chibears55]

32 minutes ago, macarthur31 said:

 

 

How I'm interpreting this:  Team Boras turning up the heat in hopes of getting Skubal deal done before lockout.  Cubs may be in this, but more as a "call us at the last second, and maybe we can work something out" type energy.  I'm not mad at that, just tempering my hopes in Jed going against type and going "all-in" before the flop.

Hope im wrong, but if Hoyer is limited on what he can spend like the 90 mil that been said, then id be surprised if he spends the bulk of it on one player with needing to add a bunch to the roster. 

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Nolo said:

As of now, cubs basically have if actually healthy and ready to go in ST.

Steele,  Cabrera,  Brown,  Garrett, and Assad

As their starting rotation 

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, macarthur31 said:

Fair point, Jason.  In this case of Skubal, there appears to be stated mutual interest, Boras has had a positive working relationship with Hoyer, and given that Jed utilized the deferred money option with Bregman - that's at his disposal as well. 

If Skubal isn't a Cub, cue up cries and wails of how "Jed can't close," but to your point, Jason, I expect Hoyer will put up a very good proposal for Skubal and that it's really on whether or not Skubal desires to wear Cubbie blue.

Yeah. All you can do is control your end. The Cubs can offer him a great deal and he might not take it. But I do think the Cubs are positioning themselves to at least put forth an effort beyond some ridiculous low ball offer. No one thinks he's getting one of these short options out deals. He's getting paid. The Cubs aren't dillusional. 

Still, handicap the Dodgers and the Mets as favorites. I just don't want to to enter the Skubal thing with negative Nancy defeatest feelings yet. 

[Bertz]

31 minutes ago, Bertz said:

These numbers feel really low.  But if this is what the market actually looks like:

- You 1000% need to sign Skubal

- No way in hell can you QO Happ or Boyd

- Probably plan on signing 4 or even 5 pitchers

- I'd totally bring Carson Kelly back

 

So using Ben's numbers, you can get this for $95m:

Tarik Skubal

Kaima Taira

Kevin Gausman

Carson Kelly

Trent Grisham

God damn.  Add in a Michael Conforto type and you're right at $100M.

 

[Jason Ross]

18 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Good, hopefully the Cubs can add at least one SP from this group. 

 

Taira is the only import they should be interested in as a starting option and he has real RP drawback. But they should be involved with him. They are a very good match. 

[Stratos]

48 minutes ago, Bertz said:

These numbers feel really low.  But if this is what the market actually looks like:

- You 1000% need to sign Skubal

- No way in hell can you QO Happ or Boyd

- Probably plan on signing 4 or even 5 pitchers

- I'd totally bring Carson Kelly back

 

Re: Skubal, Tough sell to spend 40m AAV on a player who could miss a season or more from injury at any given time.  On a SP a Cease or Fried type signing is much more reasonable. By far our biggest contract being a pitcher is just not Jed.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Re: Skubal, Tough sell to spend 40m AAV on a player who could miss a season or more from injury at any given time.  On a SP a Cease or Fried type signing is much more reasonable. By far our biggest contract being a pitcher is just not Jed.

I'd actually argue spending the money on a SP is actually *peak* Jed. 

We have plenty of current data that suggests even if SPs are one pitch from TJS on any day, they last longer age wise. The elite SPs can remain above average through 38-40, something we just don't see with hitters right now: they fall off hard around 36. 

Beyond that, Jed was here when the Cubs went big on Lester and what that meant to the org. He knows what a SP does to galvanize a playoff run. 

Does that mean this pitcher this year? No clue. But the more I think the more I can convince myself that actually a SP is right up his alley. 

[mul21]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

These numbers feel really low.  But if this is what the market actually looks like:

- You 1000% need to sign Skubal

- No way in hell can you QO Happ or Boyd

- Probably plan on signing 4 or even 5 pitchers

- I'd totally bring Carson Kelly back

 

Give me Skubal ($38), Holmes ($20), Bauers ($19) and Kelly ($10) and fill the rest of the roster with whatever you need to get through 162 (or 154, whatever).

[Bertz]

I'm generally anti-Skubal, I just fundamentally don't like putting that much money into one pitcher.  That said:

- If the market is this depressed, it is not an either/or between adding Skubal and otherwise filling needs on the roster like it would be in a normal year

- If the market is this depressed, you can buttress him with 1-2 year deals and avoid weighing down the roster with long term contracts.  Like I'd argue 10 years for Skubal, 1 for Sonny Gray, and 1 for Matt Boyd results in "cleaner books" long term than 4 each for Trevor Rogers, Michael King, and Freddy Peralta, while also giving you more 2026 WAR and costing comparable 2026 salary

- With the Mets in disarray, the Yankees not needing SP, and the Dodgers seeming like they might sit back and lick their wounds until the CBA dust settles, this might be the best opportunity in a long time to grab a superstar FA 

- The SP need is so acute that you're getting full freight on a Skubal signing.  This is not signing Alex Bregman with Matt Shaw, Pedro Ramirez, and Jefferson Rojas in tow.  If we call Skubal a 6 WAR SP he's probably at least a 5 win upgrade on current options

[Bertz]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

These numbers feel really low.  But if this is what the market actually looks like:

- You 1000% need to sign Skubal

- No way in hell can you QO Happ or Boyd

- Probably plan on signing 4 or even 5 pitchers

- I'd totally bring Carson Kelly back

 

Additional thoughts:

-  Broadly the Cubs shouldn't sign a QO free agent this winter.  But similar to my "hmm, maybe..." about Skubal if this is all Trevor Rogers costs I think that contract might still be +EV?

- I've been railing against Freddy Peralta a lot the past month and if this is what the market ends up lookinh like I haven't been railing against him enough

- I've been pretty anti-Bauers but if he costs this and isn't tagged with a QO I'd do it

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Assuming they don't go after Morejon, Loaisiga seems like an obvious fit.