Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Derwood said:

Can the pitching lab fix his FB to Changeup velocity ratio? A 4-5 mph difference isn't enough to be effective

I think we have to throw out the conventional concept of what this pitch truly is. It's called "a changeup" but I think the name of the pitch confuses what it's use and shape effectively is. Truly, I think the "changeup" is one in name only: in practice I think it's much more of a sinker. It has significant arm side run and he hammers RHH specifically inside. He struggled against lefties; changeups usually thrive on off-handed hitters. And a 4-5 MPH differential is right around where a sinker would be. 

All of this to say: I think the velocity on the pitch is fine. We probably just need to shift our thoughts on what it's use is versus the name of it.

[Jason Ross]

50 minutes ago, Nolo said:

I disagree with the sentiment that our bullpen is “good” as far as 2027. Look at these playoff games right now, every reliever is nasty. 100 mph sinkers, devastating sliders, painting fastballs. Real leverage guys, real closers. The Cubs did not and would not have fit in this years playoffs. 

I like Palencia and Zeferjahn, I feel good about them being on a big stage, but who’s our closer for 2027? Let’s say one of them becomes closer, okay so now we only have one setup guy who has 100 mph stuff? I think Webb did great for a bit but I don’t trust him as the 2027 closer. He’s too soft. Cubs need to add at least one more key piece to the bullpen with nasty stuff — if not Morejón then someone like him. But Morejón as a high leverage lefty or even the closer is just what this pen needs to complement the other promising pieces.

I don't think anyone here is claiming the bullpen is perfect as is. Sure, in a perfect world the Cubs have an unlimited supply of resources and time this offseason to acquire the best team in baseball. But we have to realize regardless of how we feel the Cubs should operate (I feel like they should be far closer to the Mets and Dodgers in spending year-over-year) they're just not going to do that. The Cubs are operating with a limited budget, limited time to accomplish their needs and a laundry list of things they need to fix: LF, RF, DH and multiple SP's. Like legitimately, Javier Assad might be the best SP on the roster for the 2027 season right now when we factor in the injury questions of Steele, Brown and Horton. 

Take all of that in and there probably isn't $20m in budget to just go out and get the best reliever when the team's bullpen is probably in a pretty decent state as is. A combination of Palencia, Zeferjahn, Webb, and Rollison is significantly better than a rotation lead by Assad and Rea. 

In a perfect world where the questions of resource scarcity and opportunity cost weren't a thing; yeah go get Morejon! We don't live in that world. In the world we live in, those resources are likely better allocated to making sure there are three pitchers in the rotation who are better than Assad on Opening Day, for example.

[Bertz]

I don't believe the A's have a POBO so this would be a huge promotion.

I wonder if Banner getting this kind of smoke means if/when Carter gets poached Banner's gonna get promoted as the backfill.

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

I dont know about good, they definitely need help, especially for the late innings. 

Rolison,  Zeferjahn,  and Palencia is a good start

Shelby Miller too

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

I dont know about good, they definitely need help, especially for the late innings. 

Rolison,  Zeferjahn,  and Palencia is a good start

Suggesting those guys are a good start would indicate you want or expect someone else, probably better. And I don’t expect that to happen. 

[Derwood]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

I think we have to throw out the conventional concept of what this pitch truly is. It's called "a changeup" but I think the name of the pitch confuses what it's use and shape effectively is. Truly, I think the "changeup" is one in name only: in practice I think it's much more of a sinker. It has significant arm side run and he hammers RHH specifically inside. He struggled against lefties; changeups usually thrive on off-handed hitters. And a 4-5 MPH differential is right around where a sinker would be. 

All of this to say: I think the velocity on the pitch is fine. We probably just need to shift our thoughts on what it's use is versus the name of it.

Then he needs to develop an actual changeup to deal with lefties

[squally1313]

I'm sure this has been posted but can someone point me in the direction of an analysis of how much AAV cash we have to spend going into next year assuming nothing wonky/unexpected happens with arbitration/options?

I'm probably being naive and buying into Happ being willing to take a hometown discount, but I also don't think it would come in the form of a short term deal. Being willing to take a hometown discount probably goes hand in hand with a realization that the best days are behind him, which then goes hand in hand with probably not wanting to be a free agent again at 34 or 35. But something like 5/$65 maybe? Basically a 'retire as a Cub' package that lets him avoid the financial implications of really falling off a cliff in his QO season. It's an underwater deal for the Cubs on the back end almost assuredly, but...if the 2030 Cubs are worried about $13m, there are bigger problems. 

We certainly don't want to make the whole boat out of 'above average offensive players in their 30s locked into reasonable but large deals', but....Arozarena being a lefty killer and also very good against RHPs solves a ton of the Happ/Busch/likely PCA related LHP problems. Like, if the LF/RF/DH set up next year is Happ/Conforto/Arozarena against RHP and Alcantara/Shaw/Arozarena against LHP, that's a pretty dangerous group? It's probably a little too much, salary wise, but it makes Ramirez trade bait at least. 

[chibears55]

57 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Suggesting those guys are a good start would indicate you want or expect someone else, probably better. And I don’t expect that to happen. 

I honestly have no expectations of what Hoyer will do this offseason, i hope they will add someone better, but again,  i really dont expect much as of now on all additions.

 

[Bertz]

9 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I'm sure this has been posted but can someone point me in the direction of an analysis of how much AAV cash we have to spend going into next year assuming nothing wonky/unexpected happens with arbitration/options?

Good timing

$165M assuming no options get picked up.  Webb's is a lock to be picked up but also Austin and Arias are obviously going to be non tendered.  So $165M still seems like a good nice round number to go with.  They ended last year st $265M so again a nice round $100M to spend if payroll is flat.

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Then he needs to develop an actual changeup to deal with lefties

I'm not sure the solution is exactly developing a real changeup, at least, what we consider one. What he does is throw a changeup; he has a changeup grip but because of how hard he can throw and his arm angle, it just creates a "sinker" profile. 

What might work is a kick change, though. He gets a lot of active spin on his change up. Lots. Kick changes kill spin and "kick" them to your arm side. That's not always an easy thing to teach. With the injuries and mechanics I don't think they were able to get there this year. Hopefully a winter can give the Cubs a platform to make one.

I think there's a few solutions beyond that. One, figure out the blister issue and find out why it was a problem this year. Curves are split neutral and would really help against LHP. 

 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I'm not sure the solution is exactly developing a real changeup, at least, what we consider one. What he does is throw a changeup; he has a changeup grip but because of how hard he can throw and his arm angle, it just creates a "sinker" profile. 

What might work is a kick change, though. He gets a lot of active spin on his change up. Lots. Kick changes kill spin and "kick" them to your arm side. That's not always an easy thing to teach. With the injuries and mechanics I don't think they were able to get there this year. Hopefully a winter can give the Cubs a platform to make one.

I think there's a few solutions beyond that. One, figure out the blister issue and find out why it was a problem this year. Curves are split neutral and would really help against LHP. 

 

A splitter feels like it would go really well with Cabrera, but that's probably not good for blisters 

[Derwood]

4 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I'm not sure the solution is exactly developing a real changeup, at least, what we consider one. What he does is throw a changeup; he has a changeup grip but because of how hard he can throw and his arm angle, it just creates a "sinker" profile. 

What might work is a kick change, though. He gets a lot of active spin on his change up. Lots. Kick changes kill spin and "kick" them to your arm side. That's not always an easy thing to teach. With the injuries and mechanics I don't think they were able to get there this year. Hopefully a winter can give the Cubs a platform to make one.

I think there's a few solutions beyond that. One, figure out the blister issue and find out why it was a problem this year. Curves are split neutral and would really help against LHP. 

 

Whatever the solution, it feels like the velocity was consistent enough that hitters could be slightly off with their timing but still make good contact. If your guessing between 99 and 95, you can make up for guessing wrong. If you're guessing between 99 and 80, you're going to have a harder time

[Jason Ross]

20 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Whatever the solution, it feels like the velocity was consistent enough that hitters could be slightly off with their timing but still make good contact. If your guessing between 99 and 95, you can make up for guessing wrong. If you're guessing between 99 and 80, you're going to have a harder time

His changeup is usually among his best whiff pitches. The velo disparity isn't really the issue. If we look at 2025, he got 27.3% whiff rate on the changeup. League average whiff on changeups is over 30%, so it feels like a below average pitch when we compare it to changeups. But again, I think it's a sinker profile. Sinkers in 2025 got a whiff rate of 13.9%. 

So again, I don't think the issue is the velocity or how it differentiates itself from the four-seam or the sinker. Reframing it, it's less like it's three separate pitches, but almost as if it's the same pitch, with different shapes. 

But I also think you nailed the head on the end with the velo split in general. But the answer there is "the curveball!". His curveball last year had issues: it lost shape, and it lost whiffs. In fact, he dropped whiff rates across the board. Why? Probably due to a decent amount of what you're saying; there wasn't enough differentiation in his stuff velocity wise. When you take the curveball, the shape and the velo off the table as often, it's alot more one-note messing with fastball shapes. The fastball shapes work great...if you have something that forces hitters off it. Last year he didn't have that.

A pretty important fix starts with getting that blister issue solved and the curveball back. Then we can work on attacking lefties more beyond it.

[Derwood]

And anecdotally, it looked like when he missed the zone, he missed badly enough to not get chase. 

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, chibears55 said:

I honestly have no expectations of what Hoyer will do this offseason, i hope they will add someone better, but again,  i really dont expect much as of now on all additions.

 

Wait, you don’t expect then to do much? Shocking, you are usually so positive every off season. 😅 

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, Derwood said:

And anecdotally, it looked like when he missed the zone, he missed badly enough to not get chase. 

Data suggests this to be true as well. He was far worse about waste pitches (a waste pitch is a pitch that is thrown so far off the plate that hitters aren't going to swing) in 2026 than he was in 2025. This is probably a good reason (of many) as to why his general chase% was down.

[Backtobanks]

3 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

A splitter feels like it would go really well with Cabrera, but that's probably not good for blisters 

A call to Moises Alou might solve the blister problem.

[Geographyhater8888]

Taylor Ward makes a ton much sense for for Jed.

Edited October 8 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

20 hours ago, Nolo said:

I disagree with the sentiment that our bullpen is “good” as far as 2027. Look at these playoff games right now, every reliever is nasty. 100 mph sinkers, devastating sliders, painting fastballs. Real leverage guys, real closers. The Cubs did not and would not have fit in this years playoffs. 

I like Palencia and Zeferjahn, I feel good about them being on a big stage, but who’s our closer for 2027? Let’s say one of them becomes closer, okay so now we only have one setup guy who has 100 mph stuff? I think Webb did great for a bit but I don’t trust him as the 2027 closer. He’s too soft. Cubs need to add at least one more key piece to the bullpen with nasty stuff — if not Morejón then someone like him. But Morejón as a high leverage lefty or even the closer is just what this pen needs to complement the other promising pieces.

I wouldn’t mind it at all. Every year they lose games in the standings trying to piece together a bullpen full of lottery tickets until they eventually find a working formula. It’s not economical to use 15-20% of available $ on a relief pitcher unless Tom decides to field a $300 million payroll to circumvent the lack of any pre arb, healthy rotation and farm options on the pitching staff.

Edited October 8 by Geographyhater8888

[chibears55]

17 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Wait, you don’t expect then to do much? Shocking, you are usually so positive every off season. 😅 

Off season acquisitions since Hoyer been in charge.... 22/23 and 25/26 were the most active offseason out of the 6 with acquiring new players.

20/21

Pederson 

Zach Davies 

21/22

Suzuzi, Stroman and Gomes 

22/23

Swanson, Bellinger, Taillon,  Mancini, Hosmer

23/24

Imanaga, Busch, Neris

24/25

Tucker

25/26

Bregman,  Cabrera, Maton, Harvey, Austin, Milner, Webb

only 3 guys really contributed in 2026

 

So, yea its hard to expect much activity out of Hoyer in the offseason seeing what hes done in his 6 years in charge.

I also dont expect any big long term signings only because and depending what happens  on CBA and if theres another tax threshold,  id be surprise if Ricketts goes over again.

Theyll need multiple players if nobody brought back.

Probably 2 SP

At least 2 Bullpen arms

Maybe a Catcher

Maybe a DH

Both LF, and RF if one isnt resigned

Probably a bench bat or two 

Alot depends on CBA, Arbs and options but it doesn't look like they have alot to spend this offseason if Ricketts wants to stay under any threshold, so if he needs to bring in multiple new faces to fill needs, id expect to see low term deals over high ones to keep payroll under any penalty line they have. 

 

Edited October 8 by chibears55

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Off season acquisitions since Hoyer been in charge.... 22/23 and 25/26 were the most active offseason out of the 6 with acquiring new players.

20/21

Pederson 

Zach Davies 

21/22

Suzuzi, Stroman and Gomes 

22/23

Swanson, Bellinger, Taillon,  Mancini, Homer

23/24

Imanaga, Busch, Neris

24/25

Tucker

25/26

Bregman,  Cabrera, Maton, Harvey, Austin, Milner, Webb

only 3 guys really contributed in 2026

 

I dont expect any big long term signings only because and depending what happens  on CBA and if theres another tax threshold,  id be surprise if Ricketts goes over again.

Theyll need multiple players if nobody brought back.

Probably 2 SP

At least 2 Bullpen arms

Maybe a Catcher

Maybe a DH

Both LF, and RF if one isnt resigned

Probably a bench bat or two 

Alot depends on CBA, Arbs and options but it doesn't look like they have alot to spend this offseason if Ricketts wants to stay under any threshold.

 

It's going  to be almost impossible to stay under the tax next year with the players going away and the lack of, essentially, salary-free rookies ready to take places. Another factor to remember is that the Cubs are currently in a pretty heavy "win-now" window. They currently have, what will be a run-away train of an MVP in his absolute prime, Bregman and Swanson aren't getting any younger and they're not going to piss those seasons away. 

I think a safe bet is around the $260m mark for where they end up giving them roughly $100m to spend. This will be over whatever the CBA does (and to be clear, I think the changes in the CBA will be shockingly minimal compared to how they're posturing on both sides). 

Any of the added taxes they pay going over a third year will be possibly lost in a similar fashion if they stay under the tax-threshold. How? Loss in revenue because the Cubs would see not making the playoffs. It's a double-edged sword. Because of that, I think the pathway will be to be above that threshold to ensure they're getting the most out of contracts like Bregman/Swanson still, PCA's great LT hit and to ensure they keep the playoff momentum up.

[chibears55]

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

It's going  to be almost impossible to stay under the tax next year with the players going away and the lack of, essentially, salary-free rookies ready to take places. Another factor to remember is that the Cubs are currently in a pretty heavy "win-now" window. They currently have, what will be a run-away train of an MVP in his absolute prime, Bregman and Swanson aren't getting any younger and they're not going to piss those seasons away. 

I think a safe bet is around the $260m mark for where they end up giving them roughly $100m to spend. This will be over whatever the CBA does (and to be clear, I think the changes in the CBA will be shockingly minimal compared to how they're posturing on both sides). 

No doubt they would have too in order to get the needed players to have a competitive team next season, but again itll depend on Ricketts giving Hoyer the green light to do so. If not, we're going to see a few low end deals on Mancini, Hosmer type players and kids like Alcantara, Murray being on opening day roster.

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

No doubt they would have too in order to get the needed players to have a competitive team next season, but again itll depend on Ricketts giving Hoyer the green light to do so. If not, we're going to see a few low end deals on Mancini, Hosmer type players and kids like Alcantara, Murray being on opening day roster.

I don't think we have much to worry about. Again, Ricketts is about money and profits. He's probably throwing away more profits by not giving a green light to go over the LT because a team of low-budget additions to replace the rotation and multiple offensive positions would put the team in a precarious position to miss out on the playoffs than he is with the added taxes and salary. Playoff revenue is a very real thing. 

I would go into this offseason with a reasonable expectation that the budget is north of whatever the LT line is post new CBA. It may not be as high as we'd all like it, but it'll probably have to be above the first tax line and once you go over it, there's really very little reason to not get close to the second.

[Rcal10]

36 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Off season acquisitions since Hoyer been in charge.... 22/23 and 25/26 were the most active offseason out of the 6 with acquiring new players.

20/21

Pederson 

Zach Davies 

21/22

Suzuzi, Stroman and Gomes 

22/23

Swanson, Bellinger, Taillon,  Mancini, Hosmer

23/24

Imanaga, Busch, Neris

24/25

Tucker

25/26

Bregman,  Cabrera, Maton, Harvey, Austin, Milner, Webb

only 3 guys really contributed in 2026

 

So, yea its hard to expect much activity out of Hoyer in the offseason seeing what hes done in his 6 years in charge.

I also dont expect any big long term signings only because and depending what happens  on CBA and if theres another tax threshold,  id be surprise if Ricketts goes over again.

Theyll need multiple players if nobody brought back.

Probably 2 SP

At least 2 Bullpen arms

Maybe a Catcher

Maybe a DH

Both LF, and RF if one isnt resigned

Probably a bench bat or two 

Alot depends on CBA, Arbs and options but it doesn't look like they have alot to spend this offseason if Ricketts wants to stay under any threshold, so if he needs to bring in multiple new faces to fill needs, id expect to see low term deals over high ones to keep payroll under any penalty line they have. 

 

Based on your list I would say Jed has been fairly active since going into the ‘22 season. You did leave out resigning Bellinger in one of those years. What you call little activity I consider fairly active. Tucker was a huge trade.  as an example. Signing Swanson and Bellinger was big. Even signing Stroman, Imanaga, and Suzuki were all pretty big. I agree, they won’t be the most active, and I wish they were more aggressive. But suggesting most years they do little is just not true. 

[Outshined_One]

I'm seriously beginning to talk myself into the Cubs being active players with Japanese postings this offseason, and my thought process for this oddly stems from the 2016 team.  Entering 2016, the Cubs signed John Lackey and Jason Heyward, both of whom were key members of the 2016 team for obvious reasons, but, that resulted in the Cubs forfeiting their 1st and 2nd round picks with the Cubs' 2016 draft making a firm argument for the worst draft the Cubs have ever had.  Seriously, go look it up.  I know @Jason Ross will probably correct me on this, but I don't think the Cubs have forfeited a first round pick since then, and I believe every draft since 2016 has featured at least one Cubs second round pick.

While the Cubs had other issues after the 2016 draft, it's clear that they recognized how much damage that draft did to the farm since they have not been particularly gung-ho on signing big ticket free agents since then.  2016 wasn't a world-beater draft, but it still saw guys like Alonso and Bichette popped in the 2nd round.

The more I read about them, the more guys like Sato, Taira, and Itoh make sense for this team, both in terms of fits and because there is zero draft penalty associated with picking them up.  Granted, the Cubs won't be the only team vying for their services, but if, say, the Cubs retain Seiya and Happ turns down the QO and leaves, going from Happ to Sato shouldn't be nearly as rough as, say, the dropoff from Happ to Conforto.