Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Derwood said:

Can the pitching lab fix his FB to Changeup velocity ratio? A 4-5 mph difference isn't enough to be effective

I think we have to throw out the conventional concept of what this pitch truly is. It's called "a changeup" but I think the name of the pitch confuses what it's use and shape effectively is. Truly, I think the "changeup" is one in name only: in practice I think it's much more of a sinker. It has significant arm side run and he hammers RHH specifically inside. He struggled against lefties; changeups usually thrive on off-handed hitters. And a 4-5 MPH differential is right around where a sinker would be. 

All of this to say: I think the velocity on the pitch is fine. We probably just need to shift our thoughts on what it's use is versus the name of it.

[Jason Ross]

50 minutes ago, Nolo said:

I disagree with the sentiment that our bullpen is “good” as far as 2027. Look at these playoff games right now, every reliever is nasty. 100 mph sinkers, devastating sliders, painting fastballs. Real leverage guys, real closers. The Cubs did not and would not have fit in this years playoffs. 

I like Palencia and Zeferjahn, I feel good about them being on a big stage, but who’s our closer for 2027? Let’s say one of them becomes closer, okay so now we only have one setup guy who has 100 mph stuff? I think Webb did great for a bit but I don’t trust him as the 2027 closer. He’s too soft. Cubs need to add at least one more key piece to the bullpen with nasty stuff — if not Morejón then someone like him. But Morejón as a high leverage lefty or even the closer is just what this pen needs to complement the other promising pieces.

I don't think anyone here is claiming the bullpen is perfect as is. Sure, in a perfect world the Cubs have an unlimited supply of resources and time this offseason to acquire the best team in baseball. But we have to realize regardless of how we feel the Cubs should operate (I feel like they should be far closer to the Mets and Dodgers in spending year-over-year) they're just not going to do that. The Cubs are operating with a limited budget, limited time to accomplish their needs and a laundry list of things they need to fix: LF, RF, DH and multiple SP's. Like legitimately, Javier Assad might be the best SP on the roster for the 2027 season right now when we factor in the injury questions of Steele, Brown and Horton. 

Take all of that in and there probably isn't $20m in budget to just go out and get the best reliever when the team's bullpen is probably in a pretty decent state as is. A combination of Palencia, Zeferjahn, Webb, and Rollison is significantly better than a rotation lead by Assad and Rea. 

In a perfect world where the questions of resource scarcity and opportunity cost weren't a thing; yeah go get Morejon! We don't live in that world. In the world we live in, those resources are likely better allocated to making sure there are three pitchers in the rotation who are better than Assad on Opening Day, for example.

[Bertz]

I don't believe the A's have a POBO so this would be a huge promotion.

I wonder if Banner getting this kind of smoke means if/when Carter gets poached Banner's gonna get promoted as the backfill.

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

I dont know about good, they definitely need help, especially for the late innings. 

Rolison,  Zeferjahn,  and Palencia is a good start

Shelby Miller too

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

I dont know about good, they definitely need help, especially for the late innings. 

Rolison,  Zeferjahn,  and Palencia is a good start

Suggesting those guys are a good start would indicate you want or expect someone else, probably better. And I don’t expect that to happen. 

[Derwood]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

I think we have to throw out the conventional concept of what this pitch truly is. It's called "a changeup" but I think the name of the pitch confuses what it's use and shape effectively is. Truly, I think the "changeup" is one in name only: in practice I think it's much more of a sinker. It has significant arm side run and he hammers RHH specifically inside. He struggled against lefties; changeups usually thrive on off-handed hitters. And a 4-5 MPH differential is right around where a sinker would be. 

All of this to say: I think the velocity on the pitch is fine. We probably just need to shift our thoughts on what it's use is versus the name of it.

Then he needs to develop an actual changeup to deal with lefties

[squally1313]

I'm sure this has been posted but can someone point me in the direction of an analysis of how much AAV cash we have to spend going into next year assuming nothing wonky/unexpected happens with arbitration/options?

I'm probably being naive and buying into Happ being willing to take a hometown discount, but I also don't think it would come in the form of a short term deal. Being willing to take a hometown discount probably goes hand in hand with a realization that the best days are behind him, which then goes hand in hand with probably not wanting to be a free agent again at 34 or 35. But something like 5/$65 maybe? Basically a 'retire as a Cub' package that lets him avoid the financial implications of really falling off a cliff in his QO season. It's an underwater deal for the Cubs on the back end almost assuredly, but...if the 2030 Cubs are worried about $13m, there are bigger problems. 

We certainly don't want to make the whole boat out of 'above average offensive players in their 30s locked into reasonable but large deals', but....Arozarena being a lefty killer and also very good against RHPs solves a ton of the Happ/Busch/likely PCA related LHP problems. Like, if the LF/RF/DH set up next year is Happ/Conforto/Arozarena against RHP and Alcantara/Shaw/Arozarena against LHP, that's a pretty dangerous group? It's probably a little too much, salary wise, but it makes Ramirez trade bait at least. 

[chibears55]

57 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Suggesting those guys are a good start would indicate you want or expect someone else, probably better. And I don’t expect that to happen. 

I honestly have no expectations of what Hoyer will do this offseason, i hope they will add someone better, but again,  i really dont expect much as of now on all additions.

 

[Bertz]

9 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I'm sure this has been posted but can someone point me in the direction of an analysis of how much AAV cash we have to spend going into next year assuming nothing wonky/unexpected happens with arbitration/options?

Good timing

$165M assuming no options get picked up.  Webb's is a lock to be picked up but also Austin and Arias are obviously going to be non tendered.  So $165M still seems like a good nice round number to go with.  They ended last year st $265M so again a nice round $100M to spend if payroll is flat.

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Then he needs to develop an actual changeup to deal with lefties

I'm not sure the solution is exactly developing a real changeup, at least, what we consider one. What he does is throw a changeup; he has a changeup grip but because of how hard he can throw and his arm angle, it just creates a "sinker" profile. 

What might work is a kick change, though. He gets a lot of active spin on his change up. Lots. Kick changes kill spin and "kick" them to your arm side. That's not always an easy thing to teach. With the injuries and mechanics I don't think they were able to get there this year. Hopefully a winter can give the Cubs a platform to make one.

I think there's a few solutions beyond that. One, figure out the blister issue and find out why it was a problem this year. Curves are split neutral and would really help against LHP. 

 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I'm not sure the solution is exactly developing a real changeup, at least, what we consider one. What he does is throw a changeup; he has a changeup grip but because of how hard he can throw and his arm angle, it just creates a "sinker" profile. 

What might work is a kick change, though. He gets a lot of active spin on his change up. Lots. Kick changes kill spin and "kick" them to your arm side. That's not always an easy thing to teach. With the injuries and mechanics I don't think they were able to get there this year. Hopefully a winter can give the Cubs a platform to make one.

I think there's a few solutions beyond that. One, figure out the blister issue and find out why it was a problem this year. Curves are split neutral and would really help against LHP. 

 

A splitter feels like it would go really well with Cabrera, but that's probably not good for blisters 

[Derwood]

4 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I'm not sure the solution is exactly developing a real changeup, at least, what we consider one. What he does is throw a changeup; he has a changeup grip but because of how hard he can throw and his arm angle, it just creates a "sinker" profile. 

What might work is a kick change, though. He gets a lot of active spin on his change up. Lots. Kick changes kill spin and "kick" them to your arm side. That's not always an easy thing to teach. With the injuries and mechanics I don't think they were able to get there this year. Hopefully a winter can give the Cubs a platform to make one.

I think there's a few solutions beyond that. One, figure out the blister issue and find out why it was a problem this year. Curves are split neutral and would really help against LHP. 

 

Whatever the solution, it feels like the velocity was consistent enough that hitters could be slightly off with their timing but still make good contact. If your guessing between 99 and 95, you can make up for guessing wrong. If you're guessing between 99 and 80, you're going to have a harder time

[Jason Ross]

20 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Whatever the solution, it feels like the velocity was consistent enough that hitters could be slightly off with their timing but still make good contact. If your guessing between 99 and 95, you can make up for guessing wrong. If you're guessing between 99 and 80, you're going to have a harder time

His changeup is usually among his best whiff pitches. The velo disparity isn't really the issue. If we look at 2025, he got 27.3% whiff rate on the changeup. League average whiff on changeups is over 30%, so it feels like a below average pitch when we compare it to changeups. But again, I think it's a sinker profile. Sinkers in 2025 got a whiff rate of 13.9%. 

So again, I don't think the issue is the velocity or how it differentiates itself from the four-seam or the sinker. Reframing it, it's less like it's three separate pitches, but almost as if it's the same pitch, with different shapes. 

But I also think you nailed the head on the end with the velo split in general. But the answer there is "the curveball!". His curveball last year had issues: it lost shape, and it lost whiffs. In fact, he dropped whiff rates across the board. Why? Probably due to a decent amount of what you're saying; there wasn't enough differentiation in his stuff velocity wise. When you take the curveball, the shape and the velo off the table as often, it's alot more one-note messing with fastball shapes. The fastball shapes work great...if you have something that forces hitters off it. Last year he didn't have that.

A pretty important fix starts with getting that blister issue solved and the curveball back. Then we can work on attacking lefties more beyond it.

[Derwood]

And anecdotally, it looked like when he missed the zone, he missed badly enough to not get chase. 

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, chibears55 said:

I honestly have no expectations of what Hoyer will do this offseason, i hope they will add someone better, but again,  i really dont expect much as of now on all additions.

 

Wait, you don’t expect then to do much? Shocking, you are usually so positive every off season. 😅 

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, Derwood said:

And anecdotally, it looked like when he missed the zone, he missed badly enough to not get chase. 

Data suggests this to be true as well. He was far worse about waste pitches (a waste pitch is a pitch that is thrown so far off the plate that hitters aren't going to swing) in 2026 than he was in 2025. This is probably a good reason (of many) as to why his general chase% was down.

[Backtobanks]

3 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

A splitter feels like it would go really well with Cabrera, but that's probably not good for blisters 

A call to Moises Alou might solve the blister problem.

[Geographyhater8888]

Taylor Ward makes a ton much sense for for Jed.

Edited 3 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

20 hours ago, Nolo said:

I disagree with the sentiment that our bullpen is “good” as far as 2027. Look at these playoff games right now, every reliever is nasty. 100 mph sinkers, devastating sliders, painting fastballs. Real leverage guys, real closers. The Cubs did not and would not have fit in this years playoffs. 

I like Palencia and Zeferjahn, I feel good about them being on a big stage, but who’s our closer for 2027? Let’s say one of them becomes closer, okay so now we only have one setup guy who has 100 mph stuff? I think Webb did great for a bit but I don’t trust him as the 2027 closer. He’s too soft. Cubs need to add at least one more key piece to the bullpen with nasty stuff — if not Morejón then someone like him. But Morejón as a high leverage lefty or even the closer is just what this pen needs to complement the other promising pieces.

I wouldn’t mind it at all. Every year they lose games in the standings trying to piece together a bullpen full of lottery tickets until they eventually find a working formula. It’s not economical to use 15-20% of available $ on a relief pitcher unless Tom decides to field a $300 million payroll to circumvent the lack of any pre arb, healthy rotation and farm options on the pitching staff.

Edited 1 hour ago by Geographyhater8888