Cubs 2026: Is the offensive floor becoming a real problem?

[spaincubsfan]

I've been looking at something that has bothered me about this team all season. The Cubs have an enormous offensive ceiling. We've seen them put up huge run totals and overwhelm teams when the lineup is clicking. But I'm increasingly convinced the bigger issue isn't the ceiling. It's the floor.

By "floor," I don't mean every low-scoring loss. A one- or two-run loss in which Chicago scores five or more runs isn't an offensive-floor failure. If you score five or six runs and lose, that's a pitching or defensive problem. I'm interested specifically in the games where the Cubs score zero, one or two runs, particularly in losses.

The pattern is noticeable. The Cubs can go from looking like one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball to looking completely inert from one game to the next. The July 1–4 sequence was an extreme example: 23 runs against San Diego, followed by one run and then zero runs against St. Louis. That's not simply normal game-to-game variation; it's an enormous swing in offensive output.

The shutouts are the clearest manifestation of the problem. Chicago has been shut out repeatedly this season, and some of those games came against excellent pitching. That's baseball. If a legitimate frontline starter throws eight dominant innings, you tip your cap.

But then there are games where the Cubs get shut down by pitchers who aren't supposed to overwhelm this lineup. The most recent example is particularly glaring. After PCA delivered a walk-off homer and Bregman followed with another walk-off victory, the Cubs came back against the White Sox and were shut out 3–0. José Urquidy, who had been struggling badly, held them scoreless for six innings and struck out eight. Chicago managed only two hits.

That's the type of game that makes me wonder whether we're looking at something deeper than simply running into a great pitcher.

There are two very different kinds of Cubs losses. If they score five or six runs and lose by one or two, I would throw that game out of this analysis. The offense did its job. But when they score zero, one or two runs and lose, that's what I'm calling an offensive-floor failure. And when this offense goes cold, it doesn't merely become average. At times, it virtually disappears.

The timing after emotional victories is also interesting. I'm not claiming the players subconsciously relax after a walk-off, because the game results alone can't establish that. But when you see a spectacular comeback or walk-off victory followed immediately by an offensive disappearance, it's reasonable to ask whether there is some kind of consistency or approach issue.

The recent sequence is almost too perfect: PCA hits a walk-off homer, Bregman follows with another walk-off, and then the Cubs get shut out the next day. Two dramatic victories followed by an almost complete offensive disappearance.

That's why I don't think simply saying "the Cubs have a great offense" tells the entire story. They absolutely have a great ceiling. PCA can change a game. Bregman is heating up. Suzuki can carry an offense. Nico can get on base and manufacture runs. There is legitimate depth.

But when several of those players are simultaneously cold, where does the offense come from?

That's also where I think Milwaukee has an advantage. Milwaukee may not have a dramatically higher offensive ceiling than Chicago, but its overall offensive floor appears higher. They are less dependent on having everything click simultaneously. That matters over 162 games, and it matters even more in October.

My hypothesis is that the Cubs don't have an inability to hit. They have an inability to consistently access their offensive baseline. When everything clicks, they're terrifying. When the lineup gets out of sync, they can go from "Nobody wants to face these guys" to "How the hell did that pitcher just shut them down?" almost overnight.

So that's what I'd watch down the stretch. Not simply how many runs the Cubs score, but how frequently they score zero to two runs, how often they get held to three or fewer, and how often a huge offensive performance is followed by an offensive dud.

Most importantly, can they raise the floor without sacrificing the ceiling?

Because the ceiling is good enough.

The floor is what worries me.

And if Milwaukee's biggest advantage over Chicago is balance, this may be one of the most important differences between the two teams.

[Geographyhater8888]

They’ve won games by scores of 8-6, 9-6, 10-5, 9-7, 9-7, 10-5, 7-6, 8-6, 12-6 and 7-5 since June 16th. The high variance has bailed out the pitching staff on numerous occasions.

Edited 7 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Bertz]

It's pretty easy to verify if a team has an inordinate amount of low scoring games.  Always assume this is one of those "wahhh only my teams!" fan venting things unless some data gets brought to the table.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Get a pitcher out there that can locate curves and changes and high heat and we are a completely different offense. We also really struggle when they limit walks.

 

However the biggest separator between the Cubs and the Brewers is in the rotation. The Brewers have 3 guys who are head and shoulders above our best guy. Miz and Harrison are clearly superior but dont sleep on Henderson, hes having an outstanding year. All 3 of them are 3.0 xfip or lower. 

[spaincubsfan]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

It's pretty easy to verify if a team has an inordinate amount of low scoring games.  Always assume this is one of those "wahhh only my teams!" fan venting things unless some data gets brought to the table.

I gave you solid examples. Maybe it you going "Wah" and who needs to STFU!

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, spaincubsfan said:

I gave you solid examples. Maybe it you going "Wah" and who needs to STFU!

Every team is going to have examples.  Teams streak and slump over the course of a baseball season.  Are the Cubs slumpier than other teams?  I don't know, but "they got shut out yesterday" or "they scored 20 one day and 0 the next" aren't meaningful in telling us.  Something like "they've scored 2 runs or less in 40% of their games, the average among playoff teams is 20%" tells us something.  But that requires looking at other teams.

Frankly this is usually just another variant of "they can't hit good pitching" which involves cherry-picking who we're classifying as good and who we're not to try to back into a point.

[We Got The Whole 9]

According to Sports Info Solutions and Statcast the Cubs are 29th against curves and 26th against changeups. They absolutely mash against fastballs, sliders, and splitters though. So the path to beat them is narrow, but its pretty clear. 

 

I forget how to find team stats vs 95+ mph. 

[Rex Buckingham]

Cubs record in games they score 0-2 runs: 4-31

Brewers record in games they score 0-2 runs: 9-25

hmmm... nearly the same amount of games with low offensive output, yet the Brewers have 5 more wins... whatever could be the difference? 

edit: StatsMuse says Cubs are 4-32, Brewers are 9-26... I was counting manually thru BRef game logs, so I may have been off... point remains

https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/team-record-when-scoring-2-runs-or-less

Edited 6 hours ago by Rex Buckingham

[BigSlick]

Do the Cubs have more 0, 1 or 2 score games than other teams? This should be easy to figure out 

[Rex Buckingham]

8 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

Do the Cubs have more 0, 1 or 2 score games than other teams? This should be easy to figure out 

19th most in the league with 36, per StatMuse (https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/team-record-when-scoring-2-runs-or-less) one less than the Dodgers, Red Sox and Yankees (all at 37)... one more than the Brewers at 35.

 

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

19th most in the league with 36, per StatMuse (https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/team-record-when-scoring-2-runs-or-less) one less than the Dodgers, Red Sox and Yankees (all at 37)... one more than the Brewers at 35.

 

Cubs floor being lower than any other team in baseball isn’t really a thing. I think stats prove that. Brewers and the Cubs are about even in the amount of games each has scored less than 3 runs. Even if you add the times each has scored 3 runs in a game they are still pretty even. Difference is the Breers have a better record in those games, which brings us back to pitching is what makes the difference. Hopefully by the playoffs Holmes and Gausman will be settling in and pitching well. They can even things up for the Cubs on the pitching side. 

[macarthur31]

A google search turned up this graphic from DraftKings facebook page, and it was posted yesterday.  Yeah - the Cubs being in the neighborhood of those teams is weird.

The Pirates have improved their offense from last year - they sit 5th in team wRC+ of 105 (compared to Cubs' MLB leading 111) and they have a propensity to being shut out as well.   

[Jason Ross]

We gotta stop doing this every time the game doesn't go perfectly. Good teams, good offenses, have bad games. They have multiple bad games in a row. They lose series to bad teams. This happens to them all. Every. Single. One. Of. Them.

Beyond that, baseball is a game where you have a near infinite amount of data points that you can manipulate to your whim. If you want a doom-boner, you don't have to look far; just slice up the game into a single, very pedantic data point and you'll find something. 

Let's not over-engineer a simple problem. The Cubs have been one of the best teams against the best pitchers in baseball offensively. They've been one of the best team offensively against the worst pitchers. They've scored the second most runs on the season. They literally lead the league in wRC+. They're a good offense. 

[Geographyhater8888]

51 minutes ago, macarthur31 said:

A google search turned up this graphic from DraftKings facebook page, and it was posted yesterday.  Yeah - the Cubs being in the neighborhood of those teams is weird.

The Pirates have improved their offense from last year - they sit 5th in team wRC+ of 105 (compared to Cubs' MLB leading 111) and they have a propensity to being shut out as well.   

Cubs have been shut out 12 times after yesterday. 

[bukie]

2 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

We gotta stop doing this every time the game doesn't go perfectly. Good teams, good offenses, have bad games. They have multiple bad games in a row. They lose series to bad teams. This happens to them all. Every. Single. One. Of. Them.

Beyond that, baseball is a game where you have a near infinite amount of data points that you can manipulate to your whim. If you want a doom-boner, you don't have to look far; just slice up the game into a single, very pedantic data point and you'll find something. 

Let's not over-engineer a simple problem. The Cubs have been one of the best teams against the best pitchers in baseball offensively. They've been one of the best team offensively against the worst pitchers. They've scored the second most runs on the season. They literally lead the league in wRC+. They're a good offense. 

But they have an offensive floor of scoring zero runs, which is a thing no other team ever has to deal with!

[javy knows my name]

6 hours ago, spaincubsfan said:

I gave you solid examples. Maybe it you going "Wah" and who needs to STFU!

You most certainly did not

[Stratos]

Maybe it's a feast or famine offense? It's possible but we'd need to see more stats on how they compare to other teams in scoring only 1 or 2 runs.  Someone has already posted that they've been shutout more than most teams.

We also need to qualify May since that was a weird month and not exactly who they've been since. But also could be evidence pointing to the feast or famine thing.

I also think if this offense is feast or famine it might benefit them since the pitching has been lousy and they need to score lots to win more often than other good teams.

Edited 1 minute ago by Stratos