The Cubs Lineup Isn’t Good Enough to Go All-In

[Brian Kelder]

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

There is a narrative about the Cubs position players that doesn’t seem to jibe with reality. Common Cubs fan knowledge states that this is an elite position-player group. And yes, when you look at WAR, the Cubs look great. The defense truly is elite. But they simply don’t have the offensive talent—or at least the demonstrated capacity for present production—to justify a heavy investment in this season. 

Historically, teams need at least one elite bat to contend. Pete Crow-Armstrong has been that, and is a legitimate MVP candidate. But the rest of the lineup features only one player with a 120 wRC+. That’s simply not enough offense—not enough high-end hitting talent—to reach their postseason goal.

Other contenders this year have more players who have reached this stat, which basically means the player is 20 percent better than a league-average hitter. The Dodgers have six; the Brewers have eight; and the Rays four. Even more, the Dodgers feature a certain two-way legend with a lofty 162, and Junior Caminero in Tampa is over 150. There are reasons why these teams come through more often and win at a higher rate. They simply have more offensive talent.

Last year was more of the same. Toronto and Seattle each had seven players exceed this mark. The Brewers and Phillies checked in with four. The trend is established; the Cubs' hitting doesn’t measure up to recent contenders.

Other champions with 85-95 wins (the range in which the Cubs are likely to fall) also had several more bats over a 120 wRC+. The 2021 Braves and 2019 Nationals, both Wild Card entrants, each had five players exceed the mark. Last year’s Dodgers had five, and of course, Ohtani put up a 172. The 2015 Royals are often held up as an example of a champion without a superstar, but they had seven players clear the 120 mark. High-end hitting is essential for October success, and the Cubs are not performing at that level.

All of this has to be considered in the context of the broader roster, of course. Entering Sunday, the Cubs led the majors in non-pitcher Wins Above Average (WAA), according to Baseball Reference, at 10.3. Crow-Armstrong has accounted for 5.0 of that himself, though, and as we know, much of the other value comes from the great defense of Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Alex Bregman, Dansby Swanson, and Ian Happ. More importantly, their pitchers have dug a hole the position players have had to climb out of. They've been worth -5.6 WAA. In short, take away Crow-Armstrong, and the roster as a whole is underwater, at -0.3 WAA. With the three best pitchers the team has had active at any point this season (Cade Horton, Daniel Palencia and Ben Brown) all on the injured list indefinitely or out for the year, it's unlikely that they'll turn that around with their current personnel. 

There is no realistic way the Cubs can fill their holes at starting pitcher, the bullpen, and add a true middle-of-the-order bat. Balancing the roster by deepening the lineup would be massively costly. Given this reality, it doesn't make sense to gut the farm for a one-time effort. 

Bregman will continue to hit in the middle of the order, because projections say he’s the most likely to produce numbers at that spot. Despite many online clamoring for a lineup change, there really isn’t a move to be made that would push them ahead of Milwaukee or the Dodgers. The best course of action is hoping the highest-paid players on the team (Bregman and Swanson) return to their normal levels of production—not to mention Hoerner and Happ. 

Jed Hoyer was lauded for his efforts to build a complete roster in the offseason, eschewing waiting for a deadline addition. That team hasn't materialized, and the underperformers in the offense are a reason why. Unless the highly-paid bats come to the grill and start frying some tasty stats, the Cubs should just let it ride. 

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[Illiterate Scholar]

[Bobson Dugnutt]

lol what is this cherry picked nonsense? 4th in runs scored, 3rd in wRC+, 1st in BB%, 4th in wOBA, 4th in xwOBA, 2nd in OBP.

[squally1313]

It’s a really bizarre choice to have a cubs website where your main writers go out of their way to talk about how bad the cubs are 

[Bobson Dugnutt]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

It’s a really bizarre choice to have a cubs website where your main writers go out of their way to talk about how bad the cubs are 

Yeah, this has been a theme for some time (shout out to the second half of last year when we were treated to daily articles about how wonderful the Brewers are), but this one takes the cake. “If you take away the guy having one of the best seasons in Cubs history, things look worse.”

 

I can’t wrap my head around the idea that trading talent from a middle of the pack farm system to improve a deeply flawed rotation is a bad idea, particularly when we’re rocking one of the best lineups (according to stats instead of vibes or whatever) and defenses.

 

also setting up the idea that the Cubs *need* a middle of the order bat (they don’t) only to determine that, no, they should not get one. Huh.

[Named After Maddux]

9 minutes ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

lol what is this cherry picked nonsense? 4th in runs scored, 3rd in wRC+, 1st in BB%, 4th in wOBA, 4th in xwOBA, 2nd in OBP.

It’s a pretty silly level of cherry picking when the Cubs are also 3rd in Team wRC+ at 110. Sure the Cubs look great on position player WAR because of defense but the offense looks just fine. 
It’s obviously not perfect, but come on. There’s plenty of concerns about the team overall. The injuries on the pitching side makes it tricky to address all the holes, but the offense is good enough to justify using resources as the Cubs sit with the sixth best record in baseball and with a clear WC position. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

[Bobson Dugnutt]

47 minutes ago, Brian Kelder said:

the Brewers have eight

The eight:

 

[squally1313]

13 minutes ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

The eight:

 

lol that’s incredible 

[Illiterate Scholar]

Unless Busch can improve his wRC+ by one point in the next week, Jed should sell.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

4 hours ago, Brian Kelder said:

The Dodgers have six

Ok one more.

Rushing’s wRC+ dipped from 124 at EOD 7/23 to 118 EOD today after a 1/8 weekend with no xbhs. For the purposes of this exercise, let me know if he should be removed or if we should add Busch, Conforto, and Ramirez and their 118s to the Cubs count. Also if we get to include Hernandez’s 799, can we also include Triantos’ 484 and Dean’s 177? If so, the Cubs have an astounding 7 players with at least a 118 wRC+. To put that in perspective, that’s only one less than the 1927 Yankees.

[Arlen]

Serious question: can the Cubs trade Bregman? And get anything?

[Arlen]

Jason Heyward a decade ago...
Alex Bregman now.

Seems Cubs management listened to people who write articles in fan sites.

[Matthew Trueblood]

2 hours ago, Arlen said:

Serious question: can the Cubs trade Bregman? And get anything?

Of course not. They just won the bidding war for him five months ago and he's having a down year as he heads into his mid-30s. But I do think the premise of the question is mistaken, too. Yes, he lacks the power you want/need from him, but he's still getting on base and playing very good defense. Alex Bregman isn't the problem with this team. The problem is that they never had enough pitching depth to withstand bad injury luck and they've had lots of bad injury luck.

[Arlen]

1 hour ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Of course not. They just won the bidding war for him five months ago and he's having a down year as he heads into his mid-30s. But I do think the premise of the question is mistaken, too. Yes, he lacks the power you want/need from him, but he's still getting on base and playing very good defense. Alex Bregman isn't the problem with this team. The problem is that they never had enough pitching depth to withstand bad injury luck and they've had lots of bad injury luck.

I agree with your sentiments, but tying an aging Bregman's salary around the team's neck seems simply nonsensical. Look at the youth coming up that can play 3B nicely. When Shaw gets back it will be embarrassingly obvious. Look at ballplayers overall who get to Bregman's age and onward. "Past performance is not a guarantee of future results." Good investors know that well. 

[Brian Kelder]

15 hours ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

Yeah, this has been a theme for some time (shout out to the second half of last year when we were treated to daily articles about how wonderful the Brewers are), but this one takes the cake. “If you take away the guy having one of the best seasons in Cubs history, things look worse.”

 

I can’t wrap my head around the idea that trading talent from a middle of the pack farm system to improve a deeply flawed rotation is a bad idea, particularly when we’re rocking one of the best lineups (according to stats instead of vibes or whatever) and defenses.

 

also setting up the idea that the Cubs *need* a middle of the order bat (they don’t) only to determine that, no, they should not get one. Huh.

Thanks for reading! I should have written that the farm isn’t good enough to get an upgrade, like a real guy for the rotation,  I do think they need a middle of the order bat, not for the season but for October. 

[Brian Kelder]

16 hours ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

lol what is this cherry picked nonsense? 4th in runs scored, 3rd in wRC+, 1st in BB%, 4th in wOBA, 4th in xwOBA, 2nd in OBP.

Those are team stats. Individually though, you need that higher level of talent.

[Brian Kelder]

16 hours ago, squally1313 said:

It’s a really bizarre choice to have a cubs website where your main writers go out of their way to talk about how bad the cubs are 

Thanks for calling me a man  writer! I don’t see a Cubs website as having to be positive 100% of the time. I hope it comes across as honest stuff

[Brian Kelder]

7 hours ago, Arlen said:

I agree with your sentiments, but tying an aging Bregman's salary around the team's neck seems simply nonsensical. Look at the youth coming up that can play 3B nicely. When Shaw gets back it will be embarrassingly obvious. Look at ballplayers overall who get to Bregman's age and onward. "Past performance is not a guarantee of future results." Good investors know that well. 

To me, the issue is that they don’t have a better talent to hit in the middle of the order. 

[Brian Kelder]

11 hours ago, Arlen said:

Jason Heyward a decade ago...
Alex Bregman now.

Seems Cubs management listened to people who write articles in fan sites.

To be fair I never said I wanted a Bregman signing!

[Brian Kelder]

12 hours ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

Ok one more.

Rushing’s wRC+ dipped from 124 at EOD 7/23 to 118 EOD today after a 1/8 weekend with no xbhs. For the purposes of this exercise, let me know if he should be removed or if we should add Busch, Conforto, and Ramirez and their 118s to the Cubs count. Also if we get to include Hernandez’s 799, can we also include Triantos’ 484 and Dean’s 177? If so, the Cubs have an astounding 7 players with at least a 118 wRC+. To put that in perspective, that’s only one less than the 1927 Yankees.

Fair, but note that I wrote this on Friday, so the stats obviously changed

[Brian Kelder]

16 hours ago, Named After Maddux said:

It’s a pretty silly level of cherry picking when the Cubs are also 3rd in Team wRC+ at 110. Sure the Cubs look great on position player WAR because of defense but the offense looks just fine. 
It’s obviously not perfect, but come on. There’s plenty of concerns about the team overall. The injuries on the pitching side makes it tricky to address all the holes, but the offense is good enough to justify using resources as the Cubs sit with the sixth best record in baseball and with a clear WC position. 

Fair! I just don’t see the lineup as an elite one, and of course they could go 7-23 again and have the entire offense disappear. As always we’ll see what happens. If I get egg on my face I’ll wear it

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, Brian Kelder said:

Fair, but note that I wrote this on Friday, so the stats obviously changed

But surely you understand how insane it is to include players with a single digit amount of at bats in this metric that you largely just made up to support your narrative that the third to fifth best offensive team in baseball actually isn't good. Or do you think we should get credit for Justin Dean and James Triantos

[mul21]

4 minutes ago, Brian Kelder said:

Fair, but note that I wrote this on Friday, so the stats obviously changed

I think the bigger issue here is claiming 6 players with 120+ wRCs when only 3 of them are clear everyday players.  It's just intellectually dishonest and falls right in line with calling the Cubs offense lacking because PCA hits first instead of 3rd or 4th.  It's a misrepresentation of reality.

[Brian Kelder]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

But surely you understand how insane it is to include players with a single digit amount of at bats in this metric that you largely just made up to support your narrative that the third to fifth best offensive team in baseball actually isn't good. Or do you think we should get credit for Justin Dean and James Triantos

I think my main point of them not having enough top end talent still is a good one